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Analytics Enabled
Decision Making
Edited by
Vinod Sharma
Chandan Maheshkar
Jeanne Poulose
 Analytics Enabled Decision Making

“Analytics has become critically important in all aspects of the business. If you
want to familiarize yourself with cutting-edge thinking on this topic, do read
‘Analytics Enabled Decision Making ’. It provides an excellent introduction to
analytics in key areas of decision-making.”
—Professor Jochen Wirtz, Vice Dean MBA Programmes, National University of
Singapore
Vinod Sharma · Chandan Maheshkar ·
Jeanne Poulose
Editors

Analytics Enabled
Decision Making
Editors
Vinod Sharma Chandan Maheshkar
Symbiosis Centre for Management East Nimar Education Society
and Human Resource Development Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India
(SCMHRD)
Symbiosis International (Deemed
University)
Pune, Maharashtra, India

Jeanne Poulose
CHRIST (Deemed to be University)
Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, India

ISBN 978-981-19-9657-3 ISBN 978-981-19-9658-0 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9658-0

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for
general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa-
tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither
the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore
189721, Singapore
 Foreword

The use of analytics can be found as far back as the nineteenth century
when Frederick Winslow Taylor initiated time management exercises.
Another example is when Henry Ford measured the speed of assembly
lines. In the late 1960s, analytics began receiving more attention as
computers became decision-making support systems.
Today, Data, undoubtedly, is what we get to see almost anywhere and
everywhere. Needless to say, the Data is enormous and does not stop
there; it is growing at a pace beyond imagination! Data is not just about
numbers; it is more than just digits! It is no longer just a tool for analysing
what has already happened. It is used to inform decisions and helps us
understand what may happen in the future. An enterprise needs to have a
data-driven culture so that it can make better decisions with confidence.
This book provides a valuable window on information assurance and
covers the necessary components of how today, owing to the amalga-
mation of an increasingly complicated world, the vast proliferation of
data and the pressing desire to stay at the forefront of competition has
prompted organizations to focus on using analytics for driving strategic
business decisions. The chapters provide an in-depth view of analytics,
with its far-reaching use cases and diverse applications now emerging as
the keystone of strategic business decision making. From enabling busi-
nesses to make consumer-oriented marketing decisions to helping them
address key operational inefficiencies, analytics is radically changing the
perception of the importance of data. Advanced statistical models are

v
vi FOREWORD

furthering this cause by providing valuable insights from unconventional

data sets and enabling companies to explore new business territories.
In this volatile environment of data-driven disruption, organiza-
tions must look through two lenses simultaneously. Firstly, they must
identify high-risk and rewarding opportunities, such as entering new
markets and changing existing business models. Secondly, they must focus
on including analytics in their core business decision-making process.
By embedding data analytics into their core strategy, organizations
can streamline internal business processes, identify unfolding consumer
trends, interpret and monitor emerging risks, and build mechanisms for
constant feedback and improvement. Driving analytical transformations
will thereby enable organizations to gain a competitive edge and stay at
the forefront of digital disruption.
Having seen how “analytics” has evolved over the years, from manually
getting the tasks done to inventing sophisticated platforms and algo-
rithms, it would not be surprising to see what it has in store for the future
and how technologically advanced the world will become. Gearing up for
better and more advanced technologies ahead!

Dr. Anish Agarwal

Director Analytics,
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories,
Hyderabad, India
 Preface

Nimbleness, resilience and transparency are the new norms in decision

making, given the volume, variety and velocity of the data being gener-
ated and managed every minute. Business analytics comes to the aid of
decision-makers in this context by combining data, mathematical and
statistical models, and information technology to produce insightful alter-
natives. It provides systematic mechanisms to explore a range of contexts,
factors and relationships to gain insights and drive business in competi-
tive settings. In simple words, analytics equips practitioners with business
intelligence and the predictive capabilities needed to navigate the volatile
and ever-changing work environment. Globalization and increasing tech-
nological interventions have created new challenges for organizations
that compel them to look for strategies to ensure their competence
and control operational sustainability. The increased attention that the
analytics domain is garnering can be ascertained by the explosion in the
number and variety of data science and analytics-related job openings in
almost every domain, be it marketing, finance, HR, sports or medicine.
The demand for data analysts with critical thinking and interpersonal skills
has risen enormously. A report by Imarticus Learning suggests that in
India alone, the analytics and data science jobs have seen a jump of 30%
in April 2022 as compared to April 2021.
Along with the number of jobs, the compensation packages have
exploded, with the annual data science package going up by almost 25.4%.
Data analytics professionals are witnessing growth in median salaries to
35%. It indicates that organizations increasingly acknowledge the impor-
tance of data literacy among their employees. They have also commenced
vii
viii PREFACE

investing in the data training of their employees, having understood the

tangible benefits of better decision-making capability among employees
and lower employee turnover. The scope of analytics is thus continu-
ously expanding, leading to an increased demand for trained individuals.
This people demand is only set to increase given the digital transforma-
tion that almost every sector, including retail, banking, healthcare, etc, is
witnessing.
This rapid growth has stimulated the interest of students and working
professionals worldwide to acquire knowledge in this field. Scholars and
practitioners are also trying to explore and add further the existing body
of knowledge. While a reasonable number of books talk about busi-
ness analytics, their emphasis is largely conceptual. This book, Analytics
Enabled Decision Making, is also a sincere effort to fill the existing
gap by addressing the need for content on applying analytics in deci-
sion making in the real world. It provides critical insights into decision
making and enables its readers to consider analytics tools in different
cases and contexts critically. This book would empower practitioners
and scholars with an advanced understanding of analytical methodolo-
gies for decision making. Since this book will be an edited volume, it
offers different methodological perspectives and eliminates gaps between
theory and practice by eliminating dubious assumptions regarding which
decision-making practices have been considered. The book’s coverage
has considered the relationship between analytical/statistical theory and
practice for explaining different concepts, the character of variables, and
possible relationships among these variables and influencers in the runtime
business environment. All the chapters are attributed that ‘relevance’ and
‘being critical’ are qualities that fill the gaps between theory and prac-
tice in the knowledge economy, which would make this book universally
acceptable.
Chapter “Analytics Enabled Decision Making “Tracing the Journey
from Data to Decisions ”,” by the editors of this book, introduces analytics
and analytics-enabled decision making and enlightens the potential of
analytics to drive decision making. This chapter presents a decision-
making framework exhibiting how the decision-making functions. The
authors have used different contexts and cases to establish the relevance
of each step of this decision-making framework.
Chapter “Algorithms as Decision-Makers,” by Rauno Rusko, Sanna-
Annika Koivisto and Sara Jestilä, presents algorithms as decision-makers.
It showcases the role of DMA and DSA in algorithm-based decision
 PREFACE ix

making. This literature review-based chapter uses the case of Wolt

Enterprise for its algorithm-based business model.
Chapter “Influence of Big Data Analytics on Business Intelligence,”
by Sudhanshu Kumar Guru, highlights how the advancement of Internet
technology and Cloud computing, Big Data became popular for big and
mid-level businesses. The chapter provides a fundamental understanding
of data warehousing and BI to compel progressive transformation of busi-
ness processes with Big Data analytics. It explains how Big Data analytics
influences BI processes. This chapter lets the readers conceptualize the
power of Big Data analytics, which can handle high volumes of data.
Chapter “Determining the Degree of Dominance of Factors Deriving
the Comparative Choice Hierarchy: An Operational Generalization
of Latent Choice Models,” by Salman Cheema, Tanveer Kifayat, Irene
L. Hudson, Asif Mehmood, Kalim Ullah, and Abdur R. Rahman, deter-
mines the dominance of factors responsible for comparative choice hier-
archy. It presents an operational generalization of latent choice models.
The chapter demonstrates the application of a well-cherished exponen-
tial family of distributions. Authors have used the varying extent of
worth parameters describing the preference order, different sample sizes
and distinguished stochastic formations to utilize the historical data to
describe choice behaviours.
Chapter “Baseball Informatics—From MiLB to MLB Debut,” by
Chung-Hao Lee and Woei-jyh Lee, concentrates on Baseball Informatics.
Authors have presented analytics to estimate players’ likelihood of being
a part of the Major League. They performed exploratory data analysis
to filter non-baseball data and baseball performance variables. They have
used machine learning techniques to analyse and rank stats and data vari-
ables. The chapter compared four sets of variable selections to train and
validate models to predict the likelihood of a drafted player reaching the
Major Leagues.
Chapter “Efficacy of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a Tool
for Predictive Analytics,” by Deepti Sinha, Pradeepta Kumar Sarangi and
Sachin Sinha, is focused on defining predictive analytics and the tools used
in predictive analytics, with a particular orientation on artificial neural
networks. The chapter establishes ANN as an effective technique for
making appropriate predictions, thereby contributing to decision making
in various spheres using the outcomes from various research.
Chapter “The Role of Financial Analytics in Decision-Making
for Better Firm Performance,” by Sangeetha Rangasamy, Kavitha
x PREFACE

Rajamohan, Anju Kalluvelil Janardhanan, and K. S. Manu, focuses on

the role of financial analytics in decision making concerning a firm’s
compelling performance. Thus, the chapter discusses the evolution of
big data analytics, the theoretical underpinnings of financial analytics, and
SWOC analysis.
Chapter “Using Analytics to Manage and Predict Employee Perfor-
mance,” by James E. Phelan, provides an overview of several human
behaviour/psychological analytics that can be used to assess current
performances and predict future performance. Further, the chapter
presents case illustrations for using analytics to attain meaningful data that
improve corporate performance. The author presented ways to control
uncertainty and enhance organizations’ performance through analytics.
Chapter “Using Analytics to Manage Employee Behavioural Traits
and Predict Employee Performance,” by Namita Mangal, explores the
importance of HR analytics for performance management and the metrics
used by organizations for measuring employee engagement and perfor-
mance management. The chapter explains how predictive analytics can
identify the factors influencing individual or team performance.
Chapter “Platform Business Model for Intelligent Supply Chain Oper-
ations,” by Manikandan M. K. Manicka, highlights platform business
as a new-age business model. According to the author, this business
format greatly impacts how business operations are executed. The chapter
describes that the platform business model makes the entire business oper-
ations more transparent. Real-time data transfer is leading to efficiency
across the entire supply chain operations.
Chapter “The Role of Consumption in the Identity Formation
of Conservative Women: A Web Analytics and Netnographic Explo-
ration,” by Altan Kar, Rifat Kamasak and Baris Yalcinkaya, explains the
web analytics and netnography approaches. The chapter presents an
empirical investigation of the consumption patterns of traditional and
modern women in Turkey using the Search Engine Results Page (SERP)
and thematic analyses.
Chapter “Using Analytics to Measure the Impact of Pollution Param-
eters in Major Cities of India,” by Manohar Kapse, N. Elangovan,
Abhishek Kumar, and Joseph Durai Selvam, measures the impact of pollu-
tion parameters in major cities of India. This chapter relates the air
pollution levels with the spread of Covid-19 in the major cities of India
during the second phase of the pandemic. The results showcased in this
chapter state that some pollutants positively and negatively affect the level
of infection.
 PREFACE xi

Analytics empowers practitioners with an epistemology to assess, eval-

uate and implement decisions to achieve intended objectives. It helps
to generate better insights into decision making, analyse the impacts of
decisions upon their implementations and make corrective measures. It
also enables practitioners to appreciate the dynamics of their organiza-
tion, predict shifts in their areas of operations, and manage risks. The
book tries to capture these aspects through the contributions of various
authors.
The chapters sufficiently communicate the intended objectives. This
book is helpful to stakeholders involved in decision-making practices with
its concepts and cases, which enable them to embrace the potential of
analytics to discover and interpret opportunities and challenges via the
systematic study of data. This book can serve as a reference for practi-
tioners, academicians and scholars. The impetus for the editors to present
this book volume is to encourage the use of analytics in decision making
so that organizations can maintain pace with competition and competence
in a dynamic socio-economic environment.

Vinod Sharma
Symbiosis Centre for Management
and Human Resource
Development
Symbiosis International University
Pune, India
Chandan Maheshkar
Centre of Internal Quality
Assurance
Madhya Pradesh Bhoj (Open)
University
Bhopal, India
Jeanne Poulose
School of Business
and Management
CHRIST (Deemed to be
University)
Ghaziabad, India
 Acknowledgements

In the Name of God, Most

Gracious, Most Merciful
This book ‘Analytics Enabled Decision Making ’ is a collection of plen-
tiful research works by authors and researchers from different professional
backgrounds and countries. We want to thank all the academicians,
researchers, reviewers and individuals whose sincere efforts have helped
us complete this book in the best possible manner.
We are extremely thankful to Professor Jochen Wirtz, Vice Dean of
MBA Programmes, National University of Singapore, for providing an
endorsement for the book. Their invaluable words of appreciation will
help every one of us to understand the real worth of our hard work.
We are highly thankful to Dr. Anish Agarwal, Director of Analytics,
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, for sparing their valuable time and penning
the book’s foreword. We consider ourselves truly fortunate for the
encouragement we received from him.
Special thanks to all the reviewers who gave their precious time and
made sincere efforts to review all the manuscripts. Their honest sugges-
tions and advice helped us enrich the quality of the chapters of the
book.
We are grateful to all the authors who have contributed their work to
this book. Also, we thank the people who permitted them to execute their

xiii
xiv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

research and develop chapters through current descriptions to make this

book a noteworthy contribution in the area of analytics.
The contribution of our families can never be undermined for bearing
with us while we pretended to work. Their love, sacrifice and support
helped us focus and continue in this direction. We are also grateful for
the support of our colleagues, both past and present.
Above all, we are thankful to the almighty for his continued blessings
upon us. We wish to pray to the Almighty for his kindness and eternal
grace on us at all times to help us accomplish our goals.
 Contents

Analytics Enabled Decision Making “Tracing the Journey

from Data to Decisions ” 1
Vinod Sharma, Jeanne Poulose, and Chandan Maheshkar
Algorithms as Decision-Makers 23
Rauno Rusko, Sanna-Annika Koivisto, and Sara Jestilä
Influence of Big Data Analytics on Business Intelligence 45
Sudhanshu Kumar Guru
Determining the Degree of Dominance of Factors Deriving
the Comparative Choice Hierarchy: An Operational
Generalization of Latent Choice Models 59
Salman A. Cheema, Tanveer Kifayat, Irene L. Hudson,
Asif Mehmood, Kalim Ullah, and Abdur R. Rahman
Baseball Informatics—From MiLB to MLB Debut 89
Chung-Hao Lee and Woei-jyh Lee
Efficacy of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a Tool
for Predictive Analytics 123
Deepti Sinha, Pradeepta Kumar Sarangi, and Sachin Sinha

xv
xvi CONTENTS

The Role of Financial Analytics in Decision-Making

for Better Firm Performance 139
Sangeetha Rangasamy, Kavitha Rajamohan,
Anju Kalluvelil Janardhanan, and K. S. Manu
Using Analytics to Manage and Predict Employee
Performance 171
James E. Phelan
Using Analytics to Manage Employee Behavioural Traits
and Predict Employee Performance 203
Namita Mangal
Platform Business Model for Intelligent Supply Chain
Operations 227
Manikandan M. K. Manicka
The Role of Consumption in the Identity
Formation of Conservative Women: A Web Analytics
and Netnographic Exploration 245
Altan Kar, Rifat Kamasak, and Baris Yalcinkaya
Using Analytics to Measure the Impact of Pollution
Parameters in Major Cities of India 265
Manohar Kapse, N. Elangovan, Abhishek Kumar,
and Joseph Durai Selvam

Index 281
 Notes on Contributors

Salman A. Cheema is currently serving National Textile University

Faisalabad, Pakistan in the role of Assistant Professor of Statistics. Dr.
Cheema gained his Ph.D. Degree from University of Newcastle, Australia.
He completed his graduation from Virginia Tech, USA. His research
interests include, data masking, privacy protection in the self-reported
data, analysis of choice behaviours and utility determinants, negotiation
strategies and health surveillance. His collaborative research has been
published at forums such as Sociological Research and Methods, Commu-
nication in Statistics, Stat and Optik. He is a regular speaker at Modelling
and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
N. Elangovan is Associate Professor in the School of Business and
Management at Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, India. He
also coordinates the Ph.D. Programme at the School. He was earlier the
Director of the National Institute of Fashion Technology (NIFT), Kannur
Campus. He comes to academics after a long experience in running a
textile business. He earned a Ph.D. in Management Science from Anna
University, Chennai, India. He holds an MBA in Marketing and an M.Sc.
in Psychology. He also holds a BE in Mechanical from Bharathiar Univer-
sity and a B.A. in psychology from Madras University. He has published
in journals including the International Journal of enterprise resource plan-
ning, MethodsX, Journal of International Technology and Information
Management and International Journal of Innovation and Technology

xvii
xviii NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Management. His research interest is in the areas of Strategic Informa-

tion Systems, Entrepreneurship, Consumer behaviour studies, Design and
innovation. His book chapters have appeared in “Research into Design
for a Connected World, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies”
published by Springer and “Handbook of Research on Remote Work and
Worker Well-Being in the Post-COVID-19 Era” published by IGI Global.
Sudhanshu Kumar Guru is currently working as Solution Architect in
Micron a world-leading organization in memory chip manufacturing, in
India. He has 15 years of IT experience with depth in Data Technologies,
Cloud and Business Intelligence. He loves to solve complex data problems
with the help of modern data platforms and tools like Cloud computing,
Big Data, Machine Learning etc. Sudhanshu has completed M.Tech. from
BITS Pilani with specialization in Data Analytics. He loves mentoring
college graduates and professionals in the field of Information Tech-
nology. Prior to working with Micron, He has worked with Accenture
and EPAM systems in the USA and India. He lives in Hyderabad.
Irene L. Hudson is a professor of Statistics and Data Analytics, Royal
Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT), Australia and Conjoint
Professor, the University of Newcastle Australia. Prof. Hudson is elected
fellow of Royal Statistical Society. She has co-authored two books,
numerous book chapters, journal articles and conference proceedings.
Her collaborative research interests include health surveillance, gender
studies, drug discovery, informatics, data visualization, causal inference
and climate change analytics. Over the years, her research has been
appreciated by a wide range of academic research circles.
Anju Kalluvelil Janardhanan is a higher education academic with a
paramount vision to achieve successful outcomes for stakeholders. She
has extensive experience in teaching graduate and postgraduate learners
from varied nationalities in the areas of Accounting, Finance and General
Management. She has successfully embedded activities and resources into
her professional practice which support and enhance the student learning
experience both in Australia and overseas. Currently, she is working as
a Lecturer with Crown Institute of Higher Education, North Sydney,
NSW, Australia. Her average teaching feedback is 4.4/5 in the last two
years. Her research articles have received several best paper awards and
are published in academic journals of international repute. Her qualifi-
cations include Ph.D. (Commerce), M.Phil. (Commerce), MBA (General
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xix

Management), M.Com. (Financial Management) and B.Com. (Taxation).

She is an IBM Certified Business Analyst, Member—Institute of Public
Accountants Australia, Associate—Institute of Financial Accountants UK,
Certified Microsoft Innovative Educator, MIE Trainer, Certified Peer
Reviewer, UGC NET qualified Assistant Professor in Commerce and
ACCP Advanced Diploma in Software Engineering.
Sara Jestilä is a project designer at the University of Lapland. She is
specialized in organizational and business development and digitalization.
She has worked on projects regarding these specialized areas as a project
designer and project manager.
Rifat Kamasak is Professor of Management and Strategy at Yeditepe
University, Istanbul, Turkey. He also holds board membership posi-
tions in several companies listed in Istanbul Stock Exchange (Borsa
Istanbul, BIST—100). He worked in the food, confectionery, carpet,
textile, aluminum, metal, retailing, trading and consulting industries for
nearly twenty years. He has done research, consultancy and training at a
large number of organizations and runs his family’s traditional hand-made
carpet business. Having completed his bachelor’s degree in economics
and postgraduate diploma in international management in the University
of Istanbul, he received his M.A. in marketing from Middlesex University
London, M.A. in management from Durham University, and M.Sc. in
applied linguistics from the University of Oxford and Ph.D. in manage-
ment studies from the University of Exeter (2014). His primary interest
areas are strategic management, knowledge and innovation and diversity
management.
Manohar Kapse has more than 15 years of teaching experience at
UG and PG levels in various programs. He has taught Machine
Learning, Statistics, Multivariate Analysis, R, SPSS, Research Method-
ology, and Quantitative Techniques. He had also conducted many work-
shops on SPSS, R, and Machine Learning as Resource Person in many
renowned organizations. Other than teaching, he is also involved in statis-
tical consultancy to researchers working in different domains. He had
published more than 20 research papers, many cases, and a book. His
research interest lies in the application of Machine Learning using R to
problems in various disciplines. Presently he is associated with Symbiosis
International University, Pune, SCMHRD as Assistant Professor in Busi-
ness Analytics. He had been awarded a Ph.D. in Management from the
xx NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Institute of Management Studies, Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya Indore,

M.Phil. in Statistics, Master’s Degree in Statistics, and presently pursuing
an MBA (Data Science and Analytics).
Altan Kar is Associate Professor of Sociology at Yeditepe University,
Istanbul Turkey and she acts as the head of E-business department.
She has thirty years of experience in the higher education, training and
consulting industries. Altan Kar has conducted research in consumer
behaviour, cross-cultural studies, sociology of communication, people’s
body and identity formation and fashion, and popular culture related
consumption patterns of social media users. She is an activist and engaged
scholar, driven by values of equality for all in work and society. Her
recent project which included more than three hundred 65+ aged indi-
viduals aimed to increase the e-literacy awareness of the participants has
been completed with great success. She has a bachelor’s degree in social
anthropology and holds master’s and Ph.D. degrees in sociology.
Tanveer Kifayat earned her doctoral degree in Statistics. Her research
advances the methodological tools for the exploration of latent choice
phenomena through paired comparison models. Her collaborative
research has been appreciated at reputed forums such as, Communication
in Statistics, Computers, Materials & Continua and Applied Sciences.
Sanna-Annika Koivisto is an M.A. in education and a project manager
at the University of Lapland. She is specialized in, e.g., leadership
phenomenon, organizational development, digitalization and education.
Abhishek Kumar is working in TCS as a Business analyst for the past 10
years. He has a rich experience in the analysis of customer requirements
and providing on-time delivery. He has worked in domains like Retail,
Healthcare and Banking. For the past few years, banking is his major area
of specialization.
Chung-Hao Lee was a research assistant at the University of Maryland,
College Park (UMD). He holds a bachelor’s degree from the National
Tsing Hua University and a master’s degrees from UMD. His works
focus on data analytics, machine learning, and supply chain analytics. As
an avid baseball fan, he has great domain knowledge of all aspects of base-
ball. That’s why he chose baseball as his first analytics topic. He received
recognition from the UMD as an outstanding graduate student award
nomination and case competitions prize winner.
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xxi

Woei-jyh Lee received BSE degree from the National Taiwan Univer-
sity, M.S. degree from the Courant Institute at New York University and
Ph.D. degree from the University of Maryland at College Park (UMD).
Chandan Maheshkar is a Senior Consultant at the Centre for Internal
Quality Assurance (CIQA), Madhya Pradesh Bhoj (Open) University,
Bhopal, India. He has served several management institutes in central
India including the University of Indore, India, in various academic roles.
Also, he is one of the founders of the East Nimar Society for Education
(2019) dedicated to quality improvement in higher education and the
development of educator competencies. Dr. Maheshkar earned his MBA
and Ph.D. from the University of Indore, India. In 2014, the Univer-
sity of Indore awarded him Golden Jubilee Research Scholarship on the
occasion of the completion of its successful 50 years. Business education,
HRD, Cross-Culture Business, and organizational behaviour are his core
areas of research interest.
Namita Mangal is working as an assistant professor at SGT University.
She has done her Ph.D. from FAM, University of Delhi. Her research is in
the field of Cross-cultural management and organizational development.
She has expertise in statistical tools like SPSS, AMOS, R and Tableau. She
has taught HR Analytics at several reputed institutes. She has a passion for
research and has several publications on her name. She has around four
years of academic and industry experience.
Manikandan M. K. Manicka is a seasoned teacher of marketing subjects.
He has eighteen years of teaching experience. Dr. Manikandan has done
his Ph.D. from Anna University Chennai, in the area of Private Label
Brands. He has published 14 research articles and has presented papers
at international and national conferences. He is currently associated with
CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru as Assistant Professor.
Dr. Manikandan strongly feels that the activities of Marketing are in tran-
sition due to the disruption caused by technology. Marketing will embrace
more concepts and techniques that are specific to operations management
for better value creation for the customers. Dr. Manikandan MK Manicka
has handled courses related to operations like Supply Chain Manage-
ment, Material Management, and Operations Management. He is keen
to explore the opportunity that is provided by Services Operations. There
is a big scope to create more value for both the company and customers
through better design of services operations.
xxii NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

K. S. Manu is presently working as an Assistant Professor in the School

of Business and Management, CHRIST (Deemed to be) University,
Bengaluru. He completed Mechanical engineering from VTU, Belgaum
and Completed MBA from University of Bangalore. He received his
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) from University of Mysore. He possesses
more than twelve years of teaching, research and consultancy experience.
He teaches finance and analytics subjects such as Financial Economet-
rics, Artificial Intelligence and Python Programming. His area of interest
includes Business Analytics, Financial Econometrics, Capital and Deriva-
tives Markets, and other Financial Markets. He has published various
research articles in refereed journals. He has attended and presented
papers in various National and International Conferences. He has been
a Financial Econometrics Resource person trainer for few Faculty Devel-
opment Programs.
Asif Mehmood is serving in the Department of Mathematics, at Air
University Islamabad, Pakistan. His primary research interests include
advances in fluid mechanics, intelligent algorithm development and regu-
larities in complex phenomena.
James E. Phelan, LCSW, MBA, Psy.D received a Master degree in
Social Work from Marywood University, a Master in Business Adminis-
tration from Franklin University, and Doctorate from California Southern
University. He is presently a program coordinator for the Veterans Health
Administration, Columbus Ohio and field practicum instructor for The
Ohio State University. He also serves as an online faculty professor
for Liberty University, Grand Canyon University, and Indiana Wesleyan
University.
Jeanne Poulose is an Assistant Professor of Management with the School
of Business and Management, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Delhi
NCR, India. She has a Ph.D. and M. Phil. in Management besides an
MBA with a specialization in Finance and Human Resources She has
around 20 years of Industry-Academia experience in the Retail, Banking
and Educational sectors through leadership and teaching roles in orga-
nizations like ICICI Bank, GlobalNxt University, St. Joseph’s Degree &
PG College, etc. She teaches Organizational Behaviour, Human Resource
Management, Workforce Planning and Employee Selection and Perfor-
mance Management.
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xxiii

Abdur R. Rahman recently earned his MPhil degree in Statistics

from Quaid-e-Azam University Islamabad. His collaborative research
includes machine learning models, Statistics in Physics and child malnu-
trition. He has published at research forums such as Computers, Mate-
rials & Continua, Digest Journal of Nanomaterials and Biostructures and
MODSIM conference.
Kavitha Rajamohan is Associate Professor of Computer Science with
Christ University since 2009. She has had nearly eighteen years of
teaching experience with 11 years research experience. In 2017, she has
received a Best Ph.D. project award from Anna University, Chennai,
Tamil Nadu. Dr. Kavitha has presented many research papers at National
and International conferences and received Best Paper awards. She
also served as a session chair for International conferences. She has
published many research works in double-blind peer-reviewed journals
and SCOPUS-indexed journals. Dr. Kavitha is an Empaneled guide for
Ph.D. and M.Phil. for CHRIST University. Her research interests include
Data Analytics, IOT, Smart Home Wireless Sensor Networks, Mobile
Technology and Blockchain.
Sangeetha Rangasamy is currently working as an associate professor
of Management, in CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru,
India. Research interests and publications are in the fields of Banking,
Stock market, Big Data Analytics and Technology based Education. Has
done a major research project on, “Financial Literacy and Investment
Behavior of Middle-Class Families in Karnataka” which is funded by
CHRIST Deemed to be University. Acted as resource person in national
level workshops and FDP titled Business Analytics and Data Visualization
Tool—TABLEAU. Have published research papers in National and Inter-
national peer-reviewed journals. Also acted as reviewers in Ushus Journal
of Management, International Journal of Finance and Banking Research,
Global Business Review and Finance Research Letters.
Rauno Rusko is a lecturer at the University of Lapland. His research
activities focus on cooperation, coopetition, strategic management, supply
chain management and entrepreneurship mainly in the branches of infor-
mation communication technology, forest industry and tourism. He has
several published chapters in the scientific books of several publishers.
His articles appeared in the European Management Journal, Forest Policy
xxiv NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

and Economics, International Journal of Business Environment, Indus-

trial Marketing Management, International Journal of Innovation in the
Digital Economy and International Journal of Tourism Research, among
others.
Pradeepta Kumar Sarangi holds a Doctorate degree in Computer
Science and Engineering, Master of Technology degree in Computer
Science and Engineering, Master Degree in Computer Application and
Master Degree in Business Administration. Dr. Sarangi is having 22 years
of teaching and administrative experiences such as Head of the Depart-
ment, Editor of the Journal, Controller of Examinations and IT in-charge,
etc. He is having more than 20 research papers published in various
national and international journals and conferences. His major subjects
of interest are DBMS, Data Analytics and Machine Learning. Currently,
Dr. Sarangi is working as a Professor and Dean in the Department of
Computer Science and Engineering in Chitkara University, Punjab, India.
Joseph Durai Selvam is an Associate Professor in Finance with a focus
on Statistical Analysis of Financial Data. Joseph Durai Selvam has more
than a decade of experience in Population Research and worked in Popu-
lation Research Centre, supported by the Statistics Division of Ministry
of Health and Family Welfare. He holds Master’s Degree in Statis-
tics, Master’s Degree in Population Studies, Post Graduate Diploma
in Computer Applications and Doctorate Degree in Applied Statistics.
Joseph Durai Selvam has more than eight years of experience in Post
Graduate Teaching to Management Students in the area related to Statis-
tics, Research Methodology and Operations Research. Joseph Durai
Selvam has conducted various externally Funded Research Projects and
has more than 10 publications to his credit.
Vinod Sharma holds a Doctorate in Marketing with over 21 years
of industry-academia experience. He has been associated with multiple
management institutes handling Marketing and Analytics courses at the
PG level for around 13 years. Specifically, his teaching and research inter-
ests include Principles of Marketing, Consumer Behaviour, Marketing
Research, Marketing Analytics, Business Research Methodology, and
Business Analytics. He has authored over 50 articles in national and
international journals, published a book titled Handbook of Research on
Cross-Cultural Business Education (2018). He has also completed in 3
International projects with Yale University, USA on Climate Change and
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xxv

Business Strategy. He has been involved in many consultation researches

projects, conducted various research workshops and also conducted
training program in association with MSME and FIEO on various subjects
of management. Before joining academia, he was also connected for
almost 8 years with the pharmaceutical and energy sector in various capac-
ities in MNCs like Macleod Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Universal Medicare Pvt
Ltd., and SSE Plc, UK in the area of sales management.
Deepti Sinha has an overall experience of 20 years and is presently
associated with Christ (Deemed to be University), Delhi NCR. Her
specialization is in Human Resource Management and she has carried out
her doctoral work in the area of Quality of Work Life. She is presently on
the editorial and review board of a few journals and has published about
24+ research papers in various national and international journals and one
book. She is also on the panel of evaluators of NMIMS Global Access
School of Continuing Education, Mumbai and is certified as Accredited
Management Teacher in the area of Organizational Behaviour by All India
Management Association, New Delhi.
Sachin Sinha holds a career spanning 25 years till now. He has taught
at different business schools and also worked in the field of corporate
communications. His doctoral research is on the role of psychographics
in consumer behaviour. His areas of academic interest include consumer
psychology and marketing communications. Dr. Sinha has been engaged
in prestigious consultancy assignments, including projects commissioned
by the Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Rural Development of the
Government of India, and also the leading advertising agency Mudra
Communications. He is empanelled as Visiting Faculty with the National
Institute for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (ni-msme), Hyder-
abad, an organisation of the Ministry of MSMEs, Government of India.
He has authored and presented research papers at eminent institutions like
IIM Ahmedabad, IIM Indore, IIT Delhi and MDI Gurgaon. He has close
to 30 publications in international and national journals of repute. He is
also a literature and cinema enthusiast, and, in addition to his academic
publications, he also has two literary books to his credit.
Kalim Ullah is serving one of the leading health facilities in the role of
a statistical officer. His research interests encompass health surveillance,
optimal sample selection strategies and survival analysis. He has been
xxvi NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

published at forums such as Complexity, Concurrency and Computation:

Practice and Experience and MODSIM conference.
Baris Yalcinkaya is a senior consultant with fifteen years of experience
working alongside executive teams of different businesses in different
industries. Baris’s tenure in consulting, including the largest travel &
tourism companies and retail services in B2B and B2C, grounded
him with a foundation of best methodologies, leading practices, and
outstanding client experience. It was these experiences that inspired and
compelled him to found a management consulting organization serving
the travel, education, manufacturing services, pharmaceutical organiza-
tions, and retail industries. He specializes in branding, search engine
optimization, creating sales funnels and building traffic for websites
and social networks. His responsibilities include but are not limited to
monitoring competition for businesses and monitoring behaviours of
buyer personas. Baris is also responsible for educating other employees
on using digitally transformed sales and marketing systems, including
digital marketing tools, Google marketing procedures and organiza-
tional marketing apps. Baris Yalcinkaya has been an instructor of digital
marketing and e-commerce-related classes for over six years. Areas of
teaching include e-commerce, digital marketing, search engine optimiza-
tion, digital innovations, networking principles and networking security.
 List of Figures

Analytics Enabled Decision Making “Tracing the Journey

from Data to Decisions ”
Fig. 1 Decision-making framework (Source Authors’ own) 6

Algorithms as Decision-Makers
Fig. 1 Supply chain of decision-making algorithms
and the emphasis of the systematic review 35
Fig. 2 The interaction and power of human being vs. algorithm
in decision making 37

Influence of Big Data Analytics on Business Intelligence

Fig. 1 Typical DW/BI flow 47
Fig. 2 ETL process 50
Fig. 3 ETL vs. ETL process 51
Fig. 4 3Vs—Volume, velocity and variety 52
Fig. 5 Cloud computing + Big Data = More data power 55

Determining the Degree of Dominance of Factors

Deriving the Comparative Choice Hierarchy: An
Operational Generalization of Latent Choice Models
Fig. 1 (a–n): MPDs under both priors, for both data sets
and with respect to all considered sub-cases 73

xxvii
xxviii LIST OF FIGURES

Baseball Informatics—From MiLB to MLB Debut

Fig. 1 Work flow in predicting MLB debut 95
Fig. 2 Correlation matrix among 31 numerical variables 96
Fig. 3 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per Age
at Draft group 100
Fig. 4 Number of players and MLB debut percentage hitting Bats
position 100
Fig. 5 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per Height
group 101
Fig. 6 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per Weight
group 101
Fig. 7 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per MiLB
fielder position 102
Fig. 8 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per draft
round 103
Fig. 9 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per MLB
team 103
Fig. 10 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per draft year 104
Fig. 11 Four baseball stats in each year from 2001 to 2010. a AVG
in years. b OBP in years. c SLG in years. d OPS in years 105
Fig. 12 Number of players and MLB debut percentage per AVG,
OBP, SLG, OPS, and ISO groups. a AVG groups. b OBP
groups. c SLG groups. d OPS groups. e ISO groups 106
Fig. 13 Intercepts and coefficients in Lasso regressions on All
and LCH variable selection. a λ = 4.0e−4 on All variable
selection. b λ = 3.8e−4 on LCH variable selection 107
Fig. 14 Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves on four
variable selections across four ML models 110
Fig. 15 MLB debut versus OPS on four variable selections
across four ML models 113
Fig. 16 MLB Debut status on Three True Outcomes (TTO) rate
(HR + BB + SO)/G per year from 2001 to 2010 119

Efficacy of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a Tool

for Predictive Analytics
Fig. 1 The process of predictive analytics 124
Fig. 2 A simple ANN architecture 126
Fig. 3 Sample network architecture 132
Fig. 4 Training of the network 133
Fig. 5 Actual vs. predicted graph 133
Fig. 6 Actual vs. predicted graph (training) 134
 LIST OF FIGURES xxix

Fig. 7 Residual graph (training) 134

Fig. 8 Forecasting the future values using trained network 134
Fig. 9 Forecasted values 135
Fig. 10 Actual and forecasted graph 135

The Role of Financial Analytics in Decision-Making for

Better Firm Performance
Fig. 1 Hierarchical view of financial technology architecture
in organisational decision-making 154

Using Analytics to Manage and Predict Employee

Performance
Fig. 1 Foundations of high-performance teams 193

Using Analytics to Manage Employee Behavioural Traits

and Predict Employee Performance
Fig. 1 Heatmap for correlation 213
Fig. 2 Decision tree for Objective 1 217
Fig. 3 Detailed decision tree rules for Objective 1 218
Fig. 4 Heatmap for Objective 2 219
Fig. 5 Decision tree for Objective 2 222
Fig. 6 Output of decision tree 222

The Role of Consumption in the Identity Formation of

Conservative Women: A Web Analytics and Netnographic
Exploration
Fig. 1 The research design of the study (Source Authors’ Own) 252
Fig. 2 The average visitor numbers and visit durations
of the websites (Source Authors’ Own) 253
Fig. 3 The web traffic keywords searched (Source Authors’ Own) 255
Fig. 4 The word clouds of the websites analysed (Source Authors’
Own) 255
Fig. 5 The overlapping word cloud (Source Authors’ Own) 256
 List of Tables

Algorithms as Decision-Makers
Table 1 The orientation of studies between DSA and DMA 29

Influence of Big Data Analytics on Business Intelligence

Table 1 The below table describes more on data warehouse vs.
OLTP system 48

Determining the Degree of Dominance of Factors

Deriving the Comparative Choice Hierarchy: An
Operational Generalization of Latent Choice Models
Table 1 Choice matrix of one decision-maker and k possible
strategies, Y = yes and N = No 61
Table 2 The members of proposed generalization 65
Table 3 Artificial data sets generated under above-documented
specifications 69
Table 4 Elicit values of Hyper-parameters 72
Table 5 Estimates of worth parameters and associated absolute
errors 76
Table 6 The estimates of preference probabilities 78
Table 7 Posterior probabilities of hypotheses and associated Bayes
factor 80
Table 8 Smokers’ choice data 82
Table 9 Elicited Hyper-parameter for smokers’ choice data 83

xxxi
xxxii LIST OF TABLES

Table 10 Estimated values of worth parameters for smokers’ choice

data 84
Table 11 Estimated preference probabilities for smokers’ choice data 85
Table 12 Posterior probabilities of hypotheses and associated Bayes
factor for smokers’ choice data 86

Baseball Informatics—From MiLB to MLB Debut

Table 1 Draft statistics in five major professional sports in the US 92
Table 2 Python code to download full names and non-baseball
data of MLB drafted players 93
Table 3 Create bins on variables with a wide range of continuous
numeric values 96
Table 4 Tuned parameters in eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB)
to build prediction application 98
Table 5 Tuned parameters in Random Forest (RF) to build
prediction application 98
Table 6 Tuned parameters in Decision Tree (DT) to build
prediction application 98
Table 7 Tuned parameters in Support Vector Machine (SVM)
to build prediction application 99
Table 8 Performance measurements from validation across four
ML models on four variable selections 108
Table 9 Top 10 variables in the variable importance plots (VIP)
across four ML models on four variable selections 111
Table 10 Example prediction application in R built on the tuned
XGB model on the Lasso4lch variable selection to predict
MLB debut on the MiLB players drafted in 2013 114
Table 11 Performance measurements on the application to predict
2013 drafted players across four ML models on four
variable selections 115

Using Analytics to Manage Employee Behavioural Traits

and Predict Employee Performance
Table 1 Correlation of variables with Per1 or Performance Ratings 212
Table 2 Regression results of SPSS with Per1 as dependent variables 215
Table 3 Regression results with Coefficients and t-statistics 216
Table 4 Correlation between variables for Objective 2 219
Table 5 Regression Results from SPSS for Objective 2 220
Table 6 Regression results from SPSS with coefficients
for Objective 2 221
 LIST OF TABLES xxxiii

Using Analytics to Measure the Impact of Pollution

Parameters in Major Cities of India
Table 1 Rt could have the possible values 271
Table 2 Coefficients of pollutants using elastic net 272
Analytics Enabled Decision Making “Tracing
the Journey from Data to Decisions ”

Vinod Sharma , Jeanne Poulose ,

and Chandan Maheshkar

1 Introduction
Each day, 2.5 quintillion bytes of data is being created with each click,
swipe, or press of a button across the globe (Akter et al., 2019; Marr,
2018). From outer space to the drawing room, data is getting generated
continuously, be it through the Mars orbiters relaying data back to Earth
at a staggering speed of 160 bits per second (NASA, 2022) or through
the 24 million e-commerce websites generating a huge amount of data
every second when a customer clicks or scrolls (Gennaro, 2022). Data is
undoubtedly the new ammunition that can both win and prevent wars in

V. Sharma (B)
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
(SCMHRD), Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune, India
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Poulose
School of Business and Management, CHRIST (Deemed to Be University),
Delhi NCR, India
e-mail: [email protected]
C. Maheshkar
East Nimar Society for Education, Khandwa, India

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature 1

Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023
V. Sharma et al. (eds.), Analytics Enabled Decision Making,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9658-0_1
2 V. SHARMA ET AL.

the boardroom, battlefield, or a football ground. But data in itself is not

the key to success, it is the ability of individuals, teams, and organizations
to leverage this data to arrive at insightful and informed decisions, that
will provide a clear edge. The strength of this weapon is such that it has
galvanized organizations to invest substantially to strengthen their data
analysis capabilities (Muhammad et al., 2022). Analytics has emerged as
a game changer considering its ability to assist organizations to not only
take accurate and timely decisions but also to augment the effectiveness
of the traditional decision-making process. Managers can now successfully
foresee and forestall problems and capitalize on opportunities. This has
led to a significant increase in the demand for analytics-related roles. The
Monster annual trends report revealed that big data analytics related roles
in organizations is going to be the most in-demand in 2022 (ET Bureau,
2022).
The dataset which is big in size, having high velocity and variety,
known as big data and the application used to create value of the data
known as BDA (Akter et al., 2019) is the buzz word today. Big data
is both an opportunity and a challenge. Opportunity, because IoT and
cloud access ensures that size doesn’t hinder recording of the data, chal-
lenge because the size does pose problems when it comes to reviewing this
data. For instance, when an organization has 2 billion active customers
worldwide and is able to record every single move on their website, it
is indeed great news from the bottom-line perspective. But how does
it decide where to focus and what to essentially make of this humon-
gous data? To be effective it has to monitor the activities of these billions
of customers, pre-empt their needs and fulfill them. Instagram is doing
it and doing it quite well! How does the world’s largest social media
network customize content for each user like the famous flashback videos
to all its customers so effortlessly? Facebook found the answer yet again
in data analytics. Google’s famed project oxygen helped it identify the
best practices of its top-performing managers and used the same to train
their low-scoring managers. To someone looking at these two categories
of managers, there would upfront appear no major difference given the
quality of hires at Google but analytics revealed that even the most minor
differences could have a deep impact on teams and ultimately the organi-
zation (Garvin, 2013). Thus, extracting meaningful information from big
data is at the core of data analytics (Yichuan & Terry, 2017). Data analysts
possess the ability to see through the data collected from multiple sources
and extract the insights for delivering faster and better results (Janssen
 ANALYTICS ENABLED DECISION MAKING “TRACING … 3

et al., 2017), be it for a product launch, pricing strategy, launching a

satellite, fighting a pandemic, training for the Olympics, or even tracing a
criminal.
While the pervasiveness of data analytics is undoubtedly true, in the
context of businesses it will not be an exaggeration to claim that analytics-
enabled decision making is the only ‘mantra’ to success. Therefore,
organizations are constantly looking for methods to harness the power
of analytics to improve their decision making. Data-enabled organiza-
tions are able to pre-empt challenging scenarios and prepare in advance,
making them strategically competent, therefore, in no time, Big Data
Analytics (BDA) has become the mainstream activity of the organiza-
tion (Yichuan & Terry, 2017). Traditionally, there were three physical
factors of production that were responsible for the growth of the orga-
nization such as land, capital, labour and now data has transpired as a
virtual factor of production which is extensively used by organizations.
Studies accentuate that ‘data factor’ has begun to promote industrial
and economic growth (Brynjolfsson & McElheran, 2016). The five most
successful organizations of the present times also referred to as ‘FAANG’
(Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google), are all data-driven
organizations (Verhoef et al., 2021)and they have attained remarkable
advantages over others in collecting, integrating, processing, and utilizing
the data to make informed choices (Janssen et al., 2017).
The value of data thus can be seen to be often measured by its ability
to enhance the quality of decisions which is solely not dependent on the
data, but also on the process through which the data has been collected,
integrated, and utilized (Janssen & Kuk, 2016). Analytics often requires
bringing all the departments of the organization together to examine
the underexplored relationships from the data. This can help in making
decisions based on the collected data to improve response to a future
occurrence (Akter et al., 2019). For example, big data driven recom-
mendation engine has facilitated Amazon to upsurge its sales revenue
by 30 percent, Capital One increased its customer retention rate by 87
percent (Akter et al., 2019) and Progressive boosted its market capital-
ization of over $19 billion by using real-time information, products, and
rate comparisons (Davenport & Harris, 2017). Learning from these large
companies, small and medium business houses have also started investing
heavily in BDA. However, these investments will generate revenues only
when BDA is integrated into the decision-making process.
4 V. SHARMA ET AL.

Despite analytics potential to add value throughout the value chain of

a business, there is relatively scant attention given in the literature of BDA
and its contribution to the decision-making process (Awan et al., 2021).
According to Ransbotham et al. (2016, p. 4) firms often fail to capitalize
upon the investment made in integrating analytics for attaining competi-
tive advantage. Therefore, this study attempts to present analytics-enabled
decision-making framework and discuss using examples from the real
world how the use of analytics helped the decision-making process across
sectors and domains. To do this, the current study uses the decision-
making framework as a base to explore how organizations have used BDA
real-time in each step leading to the decision implementation.
Understanding the descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive
levels of BDA is essential to gain better understanding of its usage in
the decision-making process (Delen, 2014). As an organization ups its
level of analytics it places itself in a more advantageous position vis-à-vis
its competitors as suggested by Gartner’s analytics ascendancy model that
suggests that analytics evolves from being descriptive to being prescriptive
(Eriksson et al., 2020).

1.1 Descriptive Analytics

Known as the simplest form of analysis it captures all the information
there is to capture and presents the varied features of each attribute
in either metric forms or at times visually through graphs and charts.
For instance, in the healthcare context, the average number of female
patients who reported positive during the pandemic is descriptive analytics
(Ahmed et al., 2021). It merely describes an attribute but doesn’t explain
the why and the how? It simply states what is. Getting the descriptive
analytics right is extremely crucial to get diagnostic analytics which is
at the next level right (Houtmeyers et al., 2021). In short, this is data
mining to understand what may have happened in the past.

1.2 Diagnostic Analytics

While descriptive analytics helps answer the question, ‘what’, diagnostic
takes it to the next level of maturity by asking the question, ‘Why’. Data
mining in this stage is aimed at understanding why something happened,
i.e., diagnosing the root cause. This while based on hindsight data is
 ANALYTICS ENABLED DECISION MAKING “TRACING … 5

aimed at providing insight to the manager. And it is this insight that

further leads to foresight to be able to predict and prescribe.

1.3 Predictive Analytics

This is aimed at trying to forecast and state what is likely to happen in
the future given the past and the current data context. The process here
also involves data mining but with the objective of predicting and not just
describing, rapidly analyzing the data to offer detailed insights. Thus, it is
not analysis that is cut off and happening in an independent manner but
in a specific direction and with a specific purpose (Gartner).

1.4 Prescriptive Analytics

The focus of prescriptive analytics is as the name itself suggests, to
prescribe the most appropriate course of action to be implemented based
on the prediction made using data. At this stage, the organization is said
to have evolved to the highest level of analytics ability wherein it is able to
move ahead of predicting as to what is likely to happen and move towards
prescribing what an organization could do to make it happen (Eriksson
et al., 2020).

2 Decision-Making Framework
The human mind does not have the ability to comprehend completely
a complex problem and take precise decisions within a limited time
using inadequate resources (Simon, 1972). Usually, decision making is
approached in the manner documented below (Fig. 1):

2.1 Step 1: Problem Identification

The success of any analytics project majorly relies on defining a problem
clearly and having the capability to ask the right questions. The literature
is overtly flooded with the content on problem identification but there
is barely any study where the usages of analytics has been discussed to
identify a business problem (Akter et al., 2019). As stated by Davenport
and Kim (2013) and Akbarov et al. (2008) in their articles, the business
problem can be addressed only if it is pinpointed with thorough detailing.
6 V. SHARMA ET AL.

Strategic Problem
Implementation Identification

Reveiw of Past
Model Building
Data

Data Collection
& Processing

Fig. 1 Decision-making framework (Source Authors’ own)

What goes around freely in most managerial circles when it comes to

problem identification is opinions. When a university sees higher than-
normal levels of attrition, the top management may opine that leadership
failure is the cause. This belief may result in the decision to change the
leadership. But is leadership failure truly the real cause of higher levels of
attrition or did the management miss the bus? In a study conducted in
a substantially large software development firm, it was noted that there
were not many creative ideas forthcoming from the teams. Usually, the
creative flow of ideas is perceived to be linked with the experience, educa-
tional qualification, or general creativity of an individual. The most natural
opinion to hold here would be that people are not just motivated enough
to be creative. But data analytics helped identify the real problem here,
which was that employees interacted in smaller groups among themselves
and rarely with other teams and this resulted in fewer managers spanning
the networks and integrating the inputs across groups. This was what
stifled their creativity. Data analysis provided the insight that individuals
 ANALYTICS ENABLED DECISION MAKING “TRACING … 7

who were moving across teams and maintaining relationships with all were
able to leverage an initiative of one department and apply it in another.
The problem thus was not a lack of creativity but the lack of interaction
and networking that is much needed for triggering the creative thought
process (Leonardi, 2018). The cross-movement of individuals between
teams was found to be an important predictor of creativity among the
individuals.
Delving into the case of big basket should help establish this point
beyond doubt. The online grocery market was small but had a huge
potential to grow in India. It was estimated by EY that the Indian
online grocery market would reach $350 billion mark by 2015. This
sector was growing by 35 percent and had a penetration of 2.3 percent.
This potential led to the establishment of Bigbasket.com by a group of
entrepreneurs Hari Menon, Vipul Parekh, V. S. Ramesh, V. S. Sudhakar,
and Abhinay Choudhary in 2011. Initially, there were no leaders in
this sector. A small number of big players like bigbasket.com, Amazon,
Flipkart, Grofer, EkStop, and LocalBanya, etc. was serving the market.
Gradually Bigbasket.com attained a market share of 35 percent and
became the largest online grocery store in India. It now processes around
20,000 orders a day (Department, 2022).
Bigbasket.com was the first online store in India. It initiated its oper-
ations in tier one cities such as Bengaluru, Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, etc.
where traveling time is high and therefore, the unique selling propo-
sition of Bigbasket.com, to begin with, was to offer convenience to
its customers. As stated by Mr. Hari Menon, CEO and Co-founder of
Bigbasket.com, ‘We need to continuously improve the shopping experience
of our customers . With more and more customers choosing mobile hand-
sets to place orders, browsing the entire merchandise is challenging, we need
innovative ideas to make Bigbasket customer friendly’ (Customer Analytics
at Bigbasket—Product Recommendations, 2016).
Subsequently, Bigbasket.com came up with additional interesting
features like ‘did you forget ’. Many customers have the tendency to forget
items they intended to buy. It was found in one of the studies conducted
by Fernandes et al. (2016) that more than 30 percent of customers forget
to include items while shopping online. This forgetfulness may translate
into financial loss to these online grocery stores. Customers may proceed
to buy these forgotten items either from another online store or from
physical store situated in nearby location. If they opted to buy online,
they would have to bear a higher logistic cost considering the smaller
8 V. SHARMA ET AL.

order size and this cost would have to be borne by either the customers
or e-tailers. Customers would be discouraged to shop if they had to bear
the brunt and may opt to shop these forgotten items at a nearby physical
store. When these customers shop at the physical store, they generally end
up buying more items which would result in a reduction in the next order
from the online stores. Thus, Bigbasket.com came up with an algorithm
with the ability to predict the items that a customer may have forgotten to
order and introduce ‘did you forget ’ feature in the application (Customer
Analytics at Bigbasket—Product Recommendations, 2016).
Bigbasket.com is a great example to manifest the importance of asking
the right question and that identifying the right business problem is the
key to success in making in-time and accurate decisions. Data with the
right set of questions is thus the first and foremost skill requirement of
data scientist. The problem identified rightly is half solved right away and
data analytics aids in improving the efficiency of this process. The clarity
in problem statement is essential to produce accurate results. Bigbasket
had large amount of unstructured data, which it used to comprehend the
relationship between various data attributes. It used descriptive analytics
to understand the data better and with tools like Tableau and Power BI it
was able to gain further insights by simplifying the data (Rangaiah, 2020).

2.2 Step 2: Review Past Data

Reviewing the past findings and data helps in contextualizing the problem
statement better. Studies confirmed that formulating the right set of ques-
tions not only requires identifying the problem but also reconnoitering
the past data (Davenport & Harris, 2017; Salehan & Kim, 2016). The
pandemic brought the spotlight on health care data that is constantly
being generated through test reports, patient indexes, apps collecting
patient information, government bodies seeking health information and
so on. The review of this past data helped identify patterns, improve
patient care being offered, increase efficiency all around, and by and large
predict and prevent in certain cases possible health concerns. Reviewing
past data helped researchers identify the virus, provided vital informa-
tion as to how it could be contained, offered insights to practitioners on
the best approaches to fight the virus, track, and trace infected patients,
monitor the existing and predict the future hospitalization requirements
and so much more (Health Informatics, 2021).
 ANALYTICS ENABLED DECISION MAKING “TRACING … 9

Steve Jobs may have been right about intuitive decision making in a
certain context when he said, ‘Have the courage to follow your heart and
intuition; they somehow already know what you want to become’ (Page,
2021) but managers are better advised to back their intuition and passion
with analysis of past data to fill the informational gaps prior to taking any
major decisions. Intuitive decisions of the most experienced, confident
and skilled managers are to be tested in the real world in the back-
drop of data. Inappropriate decisions taken purely on instinct without
any data backup may cost the organisation and the individual alike. A
case in point would be Toyota’s decision based on historical data analysis,
to pay more attention to safety features that would make it difficult for
someone to hit the accelerator even if they wished to. The right deci-
sion at the right time helped the organization improve its efficiency and
save lives. A detailed analysis of historical data in Japan pertaining to road
accidents revealed that around 15 percent of the fatal accidents involved
people who were 75 years and above at the wheel. The analysis of this
data further revealed that the elderly were mostly involved in these acci-
dents as they hit the accelerator accidentally assuming it to be the brake.
This understanding gained from past data helped automaker Toyota to
invest heavily in safety features aimed at reducing the risks involved in
vehicles driven by the elderly and the policymakers to come up with strin-
gent driving norms and roll out policy initiatives to discourage the elderly
from driving (Reuters, 2020). Here descriptive analytics paved the way
for diagnosing the problem and prescribing the solution to the same.
Yet again we can refer to the growth story of big basket to understand
the significance of analytics at this stage. The company identified that
Amazon and Flipkart, the two major giants in the online business, feature
several items, as many as 100, on the screen. It takes a considerably long
time to search for all the items and place an order and thus, it discouraged
customers to shop online. Specifically, it becomes miserably difficult when
they are using smartphones to shop. Customers buy grocery online for
two major reasons, ease of use and time saving, therefore, Bigbasket.com
created a ‘smart basket ’ which is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based
recommended basket, consisting of items that a customer is likely to buy.
This feature works on two types of recommendations, content based (use
historical data and recommend similar items purchase earlier by matching
the common features ) and knowledge based (use knowledge of the users,
items, and their relationships ), which help in reducing a good deal of time
needed to place the order (Customer Analytics at Bigbasket—Product
10 V. SHARMA ET AL.

Recommendations, 2016). Studying the historical data not only helped

understand the customer better but along with it came an opportunity to
enhance the shopping experience of the customer. Sitting on data piles
will not help an organizations grow, reviewing them to identify problems
and opportunities is what will help. Otherwise, as someone stated, ‘fool
with the tool is still a fool ’. Analytics is not only about technology but
also about the curious brain to become the artist and bring meaningful
information from the collected data by asking the right sets of questions.
Big Basket, Amazon, and such other e-commerce sites are using descrip-
tive analytics alongside predictive and prescriptive analytics to sift through
past historical shopping data, identify patterns, predict consumer buying
behaviour and prescribes that the order that has not yet been placed to
be moved to the warehouse thereby reducing the delivery time of the
product once the order is actually placed (Sachdeva, 2014).

2.3 Step 3: Data Collection and Data Processing

After stating the problem statement, data collection begins. The ERP
system can be extremely useful to have access to relevant data (Dinesh,
2017, p. 23). The organizations need to ensure that they get hold of
the large volumes of data, which is originating through an online search,
online transactions, and online streaming, etc. (Akter et al., 2019). It is
evident from past studies that data preparation and data processing are
the two most time-consuming processes (Janssen & Kuk, 2016). This
includes cleaning the data, merging the data set so that they can talk
to each other, data imputation, and creating of additional variables such
as a dummy, so that test can be performed (Muhammad et al., 2022).
It is not the data but having important tools to exploit the data that are
also essential. The advanced predictive and prescriptive analytical methods
simplify the process of identifying relationships among variables (Awan
et al., 2021).
Data analysis helps solve problems not only in the corporate world but
also aids the decision-making process of policymakers of a nation. For
instance, in 2016, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas came up with a
scheme named ‘Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana’ where women below
the poverty line were offered a free LPG connection. Under this scheme,
8 Crore LPG connections were to be released to the deprived households
by March 2020.
 ANALYTICS ENABLED DECISION MAKING “TRACING … 11

To facilitate these LPG connections government of India decided to

open 10,000 more distribution centers. Sounds simple but in a country
like India, this was a herculean task. This basically involved identifying
locations where these LPG distribution centers can be started while
keeping in mind other important factors like ease of access to the people
living in villages. The government realized soon that if this task is to be
completed manually then they would require at-least two–three years and
several project leaders to manage the work. And the entire purpose of
the scheme would be defeated due to the delay. Understanding the nitty–
gritty of the task, the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas partnered
with atlan.com to accomplish this arduous task.
Atlan.com is a data intelligence company that was founded in 2016. It
brings the entire decision-making process to one place—from collecting
primary data and accessing secondary data to merging internal data and
visualizing data via easy-to-use dashboards. They work with over 150
organizations in 7+ countries, including the Gates Foundation, Tata
Trusts, Unilever, and Frost & Sullivan. But even for an organization with
such expertise it was not an easy journey. They had to consider the interest
of both distributors and beneficiaries before proposing any decision. The
requirements that had to be met included:

1. Keep the interest of every distributer in mind as they are run by a

small entrepreneur, and they would be demotivated if there is no
profit for them to serve.
2. Distribution centers should be in a reach to 120 million people
living in these villages within 10 kilometers from their home,
otherwise the objectivity of the entire scheme would be defeated.

Atlan started collecting data from the oil and gas companies but real-
ized quickly that it was not very useful. This data was typically sales data
through which taking a decision to reduce the distance traveled by the
villages was not feasible. To address this issue, they bought in all the data
from different sources and mapped all the 604,000 villages on the map.
Collecting and merging this data was not an easy task as it was captured
in the local regional languages and mostly old data is captured tradition-
ally in the physical registers. So, to manage it, the business intelligence
algorithm was used. This helped in merging this unstructured data and
permitted the data to talk to each other. Another challenge was to identify
12 V. SHARMA ET AL.

the location of the current 17,000 LPG distributors so they circulated an

app that would fetch their exact location coordinates. After collaborating
on all the data, they were ready to make the decision but ideally, this deci-
sion also had various constraints, for instance, it should be a place that
is centrally accessible, it should preferably be a market that villagers are
already traveling to, it should have a good access road and other facilities
(like electricity, bank facility, etc.).
The algorithm incorporated all these requirements and helped to iden-
tify a location where these LPG distribution centers could be opened.
This helped the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas to open 10,000
new LPG distribution centers at just a 4-kilometer distance to the benefi-
ciaries and circulated over 1 crore LPG connections to the highly deprived
households. The success of this superhuman project is an example of how
big data analytics can help organization to take the right decisions if the
right data is collected, and reviewed and if they have clarity in their data
deliberations. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas was able to use
Predictive analytics to ensure that the distribution centers were located
such that neither the customer nor the distributor had to suffer.

2.4 Step 4: Model Building

A model building is an abridged illustration of a specific problem
(Sivarajah et al., 2017). It is an iterative process in the field of analytics
which aims at the best model to predict the results (Dinesh, 2017).
There are several analytics tools are used to find the best model. The
process involves creating data to train and validate outcomes (Akbarov
et al., 2008). The primary role of analytics is to support organizations
in the decision-making process by delving into the implied information
in the data. It means the data scientist should be able to communicate
a story based on the findings in a manner that can be understood by all
stakeholders (Sharma et al., 2014).
A study conducted by a team of Stanford University and University
of Cambridge confirmed that a machine learning algorithm was able to
predict the personality of Facebook users by seeing their liking pattern.
The study was conducted on 86,000 people and this algorithm success-
fully identified the ‘big five’ personality traits of the users. The algorithm
was also able to predict the skin color of users with 95 percent and their
gender with 93 percent accuracy by seeing their pattern of Facebook likes
(Youyou et al., 2015).
 ANALYTICS ENABLED DECISION MAKING “TRACING … 13

Nielsen developed an algorithm that helps them to deliver effective

and focused advertising. This algorithm was designed to analyze brain-
wave activities, eye tracking, and electrical conductance of skin when a
person was exposed to an advertisement (Akter et al., 2019). According
to Saboo (2016) organizations revenue can be amplified by as much as by
17 percent if they reallocate their marketing budget in decision making
through data.
Amazon developed an anticipatory shipping model which helps in
predicting consumer decision-making process. It initiates the carriage
even before the order is actually placed by the consumers. This model
helped Amazon to deliver the goods faster (Lee, 2017). Organizations use
a rating system to predict the sentiments of their consumers. This is quite
useful in identifying the potential threat and opportunities (Salehan &
Kim, 2016). But then again analytics is not limited to serving corporates.
As was seen in the case of the welfare measures of the state through the
Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana’, the government was able to predict
the most ideal location for setting up the distribution centers using BDA.
Data analytics has become such an expansive field that it is now being
used in almost every domain, be it space exploration, nature conservation,
or even sports. Flight Caster, for example, is able to predict whether there
will be a flight delay 6 hours before the airline’s alerts (Siegel, 2013).
On July 14, 2014, Germany stunned the world by winning Interna-
tional Federation of Association Football (FIFA) World Cup finals against
Argentina. This was not the first time Germany was winning the FIFA
world cup, they already had lifted this title three times before (1954, 1974
and 1990). So, what made this win so different?
In 2012, the German Football Association collaborated with German
software giant SAP AG to create a custom match analysis tool called
‘Match Insights’ (SAP News, 2014). This was a special software which
would measure and analyze individual and team performance. The soft-
ware was helpful in offering individual player wise recommendation with
the help of simulation. It is a common practice among teams to have a
dedicated video and performance analyst in their team. One of the major
objectives of implementing this technology was to help players to improve
their speed, flexibility, and accuracy for the 2014 world cup. The player
performance was analyzed using eight cameras that surround the pitch.
The pitch itself is transformed into a grid, and each player is assigned a
unique identifier, allowing their movements to be tracked digitally. This
data was then used to measure key performance indicators, such as the
14 V. SHARMA ET AL.

number of touches, average possession time, distance traveled, move-

ment speeds, and directional changes. ‘Match Insights ’ enabled the Team
Germany to analyze statistics about average possession time and reduce it
from 3.4 seconds in 2012 to about 1.1 seconds in 2014 (Norton, 2014).
Oliver Bierhoff, manager of the German national football team said:
SAP’s involvement has transformed the football experience for coaches,
players, fans, and the media. Imagine this: In just 10 minutes, 10 players
with three balls can produce over seven million data points. With SAP, our
team can analyze this huge amount of data to customize training and
prepare for the next match (Curtis, 2014).
Right after every game, ‘Match Insights ’ used to send short clips of
analysis to each player where several visual examples of doing things
well and poorly were captured and shared. The data captured by the
Match Insight was converted into simulations and graphs that could be
viewed on a tablet or smartphone, enabling trainers, coaches and players
to identify and assess key situations of each match. These insights were
then used during pre-match preparations to improve player and team
performance. Match Insights also helped coaches and players to identify
opponents’ strengths and weaknesses and develop appropriate defensive
tactics (Choudhury, 2016).
On the match day all these scientific inputs shared through match
insights helped the team put up a stunning display of talent. The team
was able to pass the ball 759 times (around 50 percent more than
Argentina) with 85 percent pass accuracy and had 5 shots on target
whereas Argentina stood at zero only (McNulty, 2014). Germany had
the ball in their possession 64 percent of the time (ESPN Staff, 2014).
Finally, with increased speed, flexibility, and teamwork Team Germany
won the match by 1 goal. While in the earlier wins, Germany may have
played better, in this win they were able to widen the performance gap
with their opponent substantially.
In fact, the stunning win of the team is an ode to the entire
decision-making process, identifying problems and opportunities accu-
rately, collecting appropriate data, reviewing the same, and using it to
build predictive models aimed at increasing efficiency. As stated by Perter
F. Drucker, ‘you cannot manage if you cannot measure’. In order to
comprehend clearly, data scientists need to measure accurately, decode
what they read, make a connection with what they read and what they
know from past, and think deeply about what they have just right now.
Another random document with
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 Beata nyykähytti vaan vakuudeksi heittäessänsä pikasesti
sukkulan loimien lomitse, polkasi ja löi.

Joachim nousi ja nojausi kangaspuita vasten. "Mutta Agnetahan

vain on lapsi", sanoi hän moittien, "hänen rinnallaan".

"Äiti niin tahtoo", jatkoi Beata luottavaisesti, iloisena että oli joku
puhetoveri. "Mutta hän kumminkin mieluummin olisi Agnetan sijalle
toivonut Karin Mariaa".

"Siksikö että hän on vanhempi"?

"Niin, tietysti… Ja sitte hän on ymmärtäväisempi. Äiti niin pelkää,

ettei Agneta osaa menetellä vanhan vapaaherrattaren kanssa
oikein".

Joachim Skytte vaikeni. Hän seisoi ja kuvaili mielessään pientä

Agneta serkkua tuon paksun, nelikymmen-vuotiaan Niilo Olavi
Stjernen vapaaherrattarena. Tietämättänsä vetäysi melkein inhoava
ilme hänen kasvoillensa.

"Mutta", Beatan ääni hiljeni jälleen, "äidin tahto nyt missään

tapauksessa ei merkitse mitään, sillä ei hän kumminkaan koskaan
saa Agneta sisarta siihen taipumaan".

"Eikö"? Joachimin mielenkiinto oli jälleen herätetty. "Miksikä ei,

Beata serkku? Istua vapaaherrattarena Marieholmassa, se
mielestäni olisi jotakin pikku Agnetalle — joka on kuin prinsessa",
lisäsi hän hitaammin, melkein kuin itseksensä.

Beata ei vastannut. Hän asetti uuden käämin sukkulaan ja puristi

huulensa lujaan sen näköisellä ilmeellä, joka selvemmin kuin sanat
mitkään sanoi, että hän kyllä tiesi enemmän, mutta mikään voima
maailmassa ei voisi saada häntä sitä lausumaan.

"Kerros" kehoitti Joachim, yhä enemmän ja enemmän uteliaana.

Beatan luja päätös horjahti heti.

"Jos serkku lupaa, ettei sano sitä — ei kenellekään…" Hän

katsahti vakavasti ylös.

"Ei ainoallekaan elävälle sielulle. Niin totta kuin Jumala minua

auttakoon", vannoi toinen juhlallisesti.

Beata ei voinut nyt enää pidättää salaisuutta kauemmin. Hän

kumartui ja kuiskasi kiireesti.

"Niin, sillä luulen aivan varmaan, että Agneta on rakastunut

toiseen".

"Kehen"? Kysäsi Joachim tarmokkaasti. "Eikö serkku tiedä kuka

se on"?

"Niin, katso sitä en ensinkään tiedä", tunnusti Beata alakuloisesti,

"ja minun on mahdotonta päästä siitä perille. Mutta jonkun sen täytyy
olla, sillä aina siitä saakka kun tanssimme Joulukuun 20 p:nä Britu
tädin luona Råsnäsissä ei hän ole ollut Stjerneä kohtaan
entisenlainen eikä kärsi nähdäkään häntä".

Varjo solahti Beatan valkoisen kankaan yli. Iloista naputusta kuului

lasiruudulla ja Agnetan herttaiset kasvot, peiteliinan reunustamana,
jota hän piti kiinni leukansa alla, pilkistivät sisälle.
 "Elä virka mitään serkku Joachim — elä Jumalan tähden", kuiskasi
Beata.
"Tytöt eivät koskaan antaisi minulle anteeksi…"

Agneta kiskasi oven sepposen selälleen. Hän nyhtäsi peiteliinan

päältänsä ja harteiltansa nostaen molemmat kädet hiuksiinsa,
huomaamatta Joachimia, joka seisoi varjossa, kangastukkiin
nojautuneena.

"Joachim serkku!" huudahti hän hämmästyen, yht'äkkiä

keksiessänsä hänet. "Hyvää huomenta", — hän niijasi hänelle.
"Onko serkku täällä?"

"Niin. Olemme istuneet tuumiskellen hiukan aamupuhtehella,

Beata serkku ja minä", sanoi Joachim kainostelematta ja tervehti.

"Mitä?" ihmetteli Agneta uteliaana katsoen häntä silmiin kirkkailla,

ruskeilla silmillänsä, laskematta vielä käsiänsä alas tukkakääröltään,
joka oli vierimäisillään alas.

"Oi… avioliitosta, naisista ja rakkaudesta ja muusta sellaisesta.

Eikö niin; Beata serkku?" kiusoitteli Joachim orpanaansa, joka istui
rypistetyin silmäkulmin ja teki uhkaavia, salaisia merkkejä selällään
Agnetalle.

"Rakkaudesta?…" alkoi Agneta jälleen hitaasti, ikäänkuin

itseksensä.
"Ihmettelen…"

Hän ei sanonut enempää, vaan punastui Joachimin häntä kysyvän

näköisenä ja huvitettuna katsellessa. Sitte istahti hän pian keskellä
huonetta olevan rukin ääreen ja alkoi valmistaa puolivalmista
käämiä. Beata loi salaperäisen, tarkoittavan, melkein riemuitsevan
katseen Joachimiin.

"Ei se ole mitään ihmeteltävää", sanoi Joachim hitaasti hetken

vaitiolon jälkeen, ilmeellä, jota tytöt, jos he olisivat tunteneet sanan ja
ymmärtäneet sen, olisivat kutsuneet aistilliseksi. Nyt he nimittivät sitä
vaan vallattomuudeksi, ja heidän mielestään puki se häntä. "Sen
kyllä serkku oppii aikanansa kaikki tyynni tietämään, — kun serkku
joutuu naimisiin".

Agneta katsoi ujosti ylös puolastaan. Miten tuo serkku oli

miehekkään näköinen ruskeassa verkatakissaan, joka istui niin
hyvin, korkeissa, kirjavissa liiveissään, silkki-kaulaliinassaan ja
hienossa paidassaan! Hänen katseensa solui alas, koreisiin
housuihin ja somiin kiiltäviin saappaisiin.

Luoja tietää, ihmetteli hän ehdottomasti, aikooko hän aina

arkipäivin käydä noin hienona!

Joachim kohtasi hänen katseensa, tytön avoin, teeskentelemätön

ihailu hyväili hänen turhamaisuuttaan ja sai hänet heti hyvälle
tuulelle.

"Kun menee naimisiin", uudisti Beata epäilevästi, syvästi

halveksivalla äänellä. "Ei, jos ei sitä opi ennen tietämään, niin ei sitä
ainakaan opi silloin!"

Joachim purskahti nauramaan. Hän voi kyllä ymmärtää, että ne

avioliittoa koskevat mielipiteet, jotka serkku oli omistanut äidiltänsä,
eivät olleet erittäin ihanteellisia. "Voihan ajatella niin", sanoi hän
hilpeästi ja jatkoi hyväntahtoisesti, "että tyttö tulee naimisiin miehen
kanssa jota hän rakastaa". Hän puhui Beatalle, mutta katsoi
Agnetaan, joka painoi vieläkin syvempään päänsä surisevan
rukinpyörän päälle.

Beata äännähti halveksivaisesti. "Se ei tapahdu koskaan, ei edes

romaaneissakaan". Tuo vastenmielinen ja aistillinen mieliala, joka
äsken oli vallannut nuoren Skytten, kuullessansa pikku Agnetan ja
parooni Stjernen välille tuumitut naimahankkeet, hälveni pois
kerrassaan. Hän tunsi taas yhtäkkiä, vastoin Beata serkun
periaatteellisia epäilyksiä, kuinka häntä jälleen elähytti haaveellisen
ihanteellinen uskonsa todellisen, totisen, oikean rakkauden
kaikkivoimaan, jonka hän oli tavannut ilmilausuttuna useimpain
lempirunoilijoidensa kirjoissa, ja joka nuorehkoissa toverikekkereissä
oli opettanut hänet niin lämpimästi ja innokkaasti tulkitsemaan
vaikutusta, jonka moinen naisellisuus, "das ewig weibliche", niin
kauan kuin hänen muistinsa kantoi oli tehnyt hänen alttiiseen
mieleensä. Nojautuneena kangastukkia vasten, toinen käsivarsi
niskan takana ja pää hieman taaksepäin taipuneena, alkoi hän
innokkaasti ja vakavasti ilmituoda tuumiansa, ylistää rakkauden
onnea, sen ainoaa, autuaaksi tekevää vaikutusta elämässä.
Tummansiniset silmät sädehtivät nuorekkaasti sileän, valkean otsan
alla, jolleka ruskeat, hiussuortuvat putoilivat ja tuo syvä kolo —
liikkuva ja ilmeikäs, hänen innostuneesti puhuessaan pyöreässä,
parrattomassa leuassaan ikäänkuin syveni. — Beata oli jo kauan
sitte lakannut kutomasta. Hän istui nypiskellen sukkulaa, pieni pää
musliinikaulaliinaa vasten miettiväisesti kallellaan, uskaltamatta
oikein katsoa ylös serkkuun, samalla Agnetan vähän kumartuneena,
käsi rukin pyörällä, puoli avoimin suin ja suureksi avatuin silmin
seuratessa jokaista hänen kasvojensa liikettä. Joachimin tarkoitus
alkuaan oli ollut näyttää Beatalle, että rakkauden onni myöskin voisi
olla mahdollinen avioliitossa — niin, oikeastaan olikin sieltä kotoisin
— mutta kuta enemmän hän puhui, tuli hän omien sanojensa
innostuttamana, kokonaan pois tästä aineesta, ja puhui vain
rakkaudesta yleensä, miehen rakkaudesta naiseen, siteistä ja laista
huolimatta. Ja nimet jotka hän mainitsi: Julies ja S:t Preux'in nimet,
Frithiofin ja Ingeborgin nimet, hänen otteensa Eigilin riemuitsevasta
huudahduksesta Oehlenschlägerissä:

"Mull'on mun Helgani! Kuulkaa…" kaikki tämä itse asiassa ei

todistanut mitään onnesta avioliitossa, mutta tytöt eivät sitä
huomanneet: hekin kuten hän itse olivat jo aikoja sitte kokonaan
unhottaneet lähtökohdan. Hän puhui kuin kirja, kuin runo ja hän
puhui rakkaudesta — se oli heille kylliksi.

Tämä kiihkeä esitelmä sydämen oikeudesta oli murtanut jään

kokonaan. Heistä tuntui kuin olisivat he vanhoja tuttuja ja kutsuivat
aivan kursailematta toisiansa tuttavallisesti "sinuksi" ja nimeltään
aivan kuin sisarukset.

Rakkaan Frithiofin johdosta kääntyi puhe kirjallisuuteen — he

kaikki harrastivat vilkkaasti kansallista kirjallisuutta, mutta ulkomaan
kirjallisuudesta tytöt eivät paljon muuta tunteneet kuin vanhat
ranskalaiset koulukirjansa. Ne "contes'it" ja ranskalaiset
murhenäytelmät, jotka äidillä olivat, pidettiin lukon taa teljettyinä ja
niistä vaan valituita kappaleita, valvonnan alaisena luettiin ääneen
kielen vuoksi. Joachim kertoi heille Saksan romantikoista ja lausui
heille kappaleita "Don Carlos'esta" ja "Ryöväreistä" — enemmän
omaksi kuin serkkujensa huviksi, jotka vain vajanaisesti ymmärsivät
saksaa. Saksan oppimista ei ollut pidetty tapoina äidin aikoina;
ranskaa sitävastoin kuten useimmat muutkin "parempien ihmisten
lapset" olivat he saaneet oppia melkein äidinkielen rinnalla. Kun
Joachim näki, että heidän huolimatta hyvästä tahdostaan, oli
mahdotonta yhtyä hänen kanssaan Carl Mooria ja markiisi Posaa
ihaelemaan, keskeytti hän yht'äkkiä puheensa ja vilkkaasti innostuen
huudahti:

"Mutta sitte on olemassa eräs ranskalainen, nimeltä Victor Hugo!

Hän on aivan nuori, tuskin vanhempi minua. Ja tietäkää, hän vasta
osaa kirjoittaa!"

Ja Munkebodan kutomatuvassa, missä rouvat, neidet ja piiat,

virsien ja säädyllisten kansanlaulujen kaikuessa olivat tuhansin
kyynärin liina ja pumpulikangasta vaivalla kokoon kyhänneet, alkoi
nyt nuori Skytte serkuillensa laususkella uudenaikaista
eurooppalaista, romantillista runoutta:

"Nous parlons des héros, du ciel des chevaliers…"

kuului raikkaasti ja mahtavasti aina panimohuoneesen, missä

majuurska oli, joka hämmästyneenä pysähtyi tuokion, ennenkuin sai
linkun nostaneeksi. Ja kun hän avasi oven, näki hän molemmat
tyttärensä punoittavin poskin kyynelsiimissä istumassa kädet ristissä
arkipäivänä, parhaana työaikana, Joachim serkun seistessä keskellä
lattiaa rypistetyin silmäkulmin, ja kädet traagillisesti ojennettuina
häntä kohti.

Totta tosiaan, uusi aika oli koittanut Munkebodassa! Myöskin siellä

oli vuossadan kolmas vuosikymmenes alkanut.
III.

Tytöt asuivat myöskin yläkerrassa, — päätyhuoneessa, joka oli

Joachimin huoneen kanssa vastakkain. Suuri etelänpuoleinen
kamari, johon aurinko paistoi melkein päiväkauden, oli heidän,
kaikkien kolmen, yhteisenä asuntona. Seinät eivät olleet paperoidut
niinkuin muissa huoneissa, vaan niihin oli iso-isän aikana maalattu
siniselle pohjalle kirjavia, mielikuvituksen luomia kuuman ilmanalan
maisemia, parhaastaan korkeita palmuja, jotka siimestivät
ihanteellisten alkuasujanten suojelemia kahvinruskeita majoja. Iso-
isä itse oli joutohetkinään maalaillut ne, niinkuin etehisen
ovikuvatkin.

Huoneen kalustona olivat vanhat, valkeaksi kiillotetut kustavilaiset

huonekalut — maalaisesti kömpelöt — jotka majuurska taloon
tultuansa oli hylännyt pois vieraskamarista. Leveässä,
päästävedettävässä sängyssä, joka päiväksi työnnettiin kokoon,
nukkuivat Agneta ja Beata ja sitä vastapäätä, kotikutoisella,
ruudukkaisella pumpulikankaalla päällystetyllä sohvalla oli Karin
Marialla joka oli vanhin, erikoispaikkansa. Sohvan edessä oli
huoneen upein huonekalu, vanha soikea, tumma marmoripöytä,
jonka paksut kaarevat jalat olivat aikoinaan olleet kullatut.
 Kun Joachim kulki huoneesensa ja sieltä pois, näki hän usein
serkkujen huoneen oven olevan auki. Ja joka kerran kun hän
mennessänsä pimeän ullakon poikki katsoi sinne sisälle, oli hänen
silmänsä huijeta, ikäänkuin olisi hän tirkistänyt suoraan aurinkoon —
niin valoisaa oli aina tuolla sisällä, nyt kevätpuoleen. Väliin näki hän
Karin Marian akkunan pielessä nojatuolissa harjoittelevan
harpunsoittoa, eli Beatan leveällä akkunalaudalla, kuurullaan
pistämässä kevään ensilehtiä kanarialintusten häkkiin, joka riippui
leveän, moniruutuisen, melkein ansarinseinää muistuttavan,
akkunan keskellä. Iso-isä oli laittanut sen sellaiseksi, sillä tuolla
ylhäällä — päivänpaisteessa, kaikkia tavanmukaisia,
maalaustaidonsääntöjä halveksien — oli ukolla, joka oli erikoinen
kaikessa, ollut maalaushuoneensa, "atelierinsa".

Joachim muisti vielä selvään iso-isän, tyttöjen mielessä oli säilynyt

vain himmeä kuva vanhasta, valkohapsisesta, luuvalon
koukistamasta, kuuruselkäisestä miehestä, jonka sinisten silmien
tuike oli veitikkamainen ja lempeä ja hienot, punervat kasvot,
ryppyiset kuin talviomena. Luuvalon oli iso-isä saanut sotaretkellä
Suomessa v:na 88, mutta kumminkin vasta sitte kun hän vanhana
miehenä oli majaillut sotajoukon kanssa Rügenillä, oli hän käynyt
niin huonoksi, että oli alkanut käydä koukussa. Ja kun hän sitte
vihdoinkin oli tullut kotiin Munkebodaan, oli hän alkanut maalailla.
Hän liikkui harvoin kotoa pois, istui parhaastaan vinnikamarissaan
vain auringon paisteessa, sepitellen haaveellisia maisemiaan, tahi
lueskeli uutta ranskalaista ja saksalaista runoutta — hän oli Ossianin
ja Chateaubriand'in suuri ihailija ja monet tauluista olivat hänen
oman mielikuvansa luomia kuvia "Atalaan" ja "René'sen".
Sanomalehtiä ei hän vanhuutensa päivinä suvainnut näkösälleen —
"Grevesmöhlensk-kirjallisuudeksi", kutsui hän halveksuen niitä.
Maaliskuun 13 päivän vallankumouksessa oli hän ollut Adlersparren
seuralainen — ja ollen maanpuoltaja, skånelainen ja alkuaan vanhaa
sissi-sukua oli hän pitänyt tanskalaisen hallitsijasuvun puolta. Hän oli
kerran ollut innokas valtiomies ja vastustuspuolueen kannattaja —
Kustaa III ja hänen hallitustaan ei hän koskaan ollut voinut sietää,
mutta elämänsä lopulla laimeni vähä kerrassaan hänen
harrastuksensa valtakunnan asioihin. Viimeisen perintöprinssin
vaalin jälkeen, jolloin hänen muinainen vilkkautensa tuntui jälleen
leimahtaneen liekkiin, eivät edes hänen poikansakaan kuulleet
hänen koskaan lausuvan mitään mielipidettä maan valtiollisissa
asioissa. Sitävastoin otti hän koko tarmollaan osaa tapausten
juoksuun etäämpänä Euroopassa ja seurasi jännityksellä keisarin
sotaretkeä. Suuret, etäiset urhotyöt viehättivät alati hänen soturi- ja
taiteilija-mielikuvitustaan sadun ja ihmeen lumousvoimalla.

Poikansa poika ja "pikku Joachim"-nimi olivat olleet aina hänen

lemmikkejänsä. Poika oli syntynyt 2 p:nä joulukuuta v. 1805,
voitonseppele päässä. Kun sanoma Austerlitzista vihdoinkin saapui
Länsi Göingen kihlakuntaan — se oli jo jotenkin joulun tienoota —
tuotatti iso-isä vanhus esille viimeisen pullon vanhaa tokaijeria, joka
oli maannut kellarissa aina siitä päivin kun Karl Niklas Skytte tuli
kotiin Wienistä v. 1738. Hän kilisteli juhlallisesti poikiensa ja miniänsä
— Joachimin kauniin, iloisen äidin kanssa — ja kastettuaan
pikkusormensa pään viinissä, pisti hän sen pienokaisen suuhun —
kun oli syntynyt voitonlakki päässä, itse Austerlitzin päivänä, niin
pitihän siitä saada tietää!

Ja Joachim saikin siitä tietää, Joulukuun toista päivää vietettiin

aina, niinkauan kuin isoisä eli erikoisilla juhlallisuuksilla ja rohkealla,
liitelevällä, oikealla skytteläisellä mielikuvituksellaan kuvaili poika
aina, koko lapsuusaikansa itsensä määrätyksi sekä marskisauvan
että herttuakruunun kantajaksi. Eikä iso-isä särkenyt koskaan hänen
kuvittelujaan — hän ei nähnyt koskaan Waterloon päivää!

Kun Joachim läksi kamaristaan, olisi hän paljon mieluummin

astuskellut tyttöjen luo vastapäätä kuin alakertaan Lotti tädin luo,
mutta tähän saakka oli hän kumminkin onnellisesti voittanut tämän
kiusauksen. Sitä kyllä ei missään muussa kodissa olisi pidetty
sopimattomana näin lähiserkkujen kesken, mutta hän tiesi että täti
Lotin mielestä se olisi ollut kumminkin niin, kun oli kysymyksessä
juuri hän.

Lotti täti ei ollut koskaan pitänyt Joachimista. Ensiksikin syystä

siitä, kun hänellä itsellään ei ollut poikaa, ja koska tämä ainoana
pojanpoikana, iso-isän testamentin mukaan perisi Munkebodan ja
sitte kun hän oli niin "julkea". Juttu överstin Lotan kanssa, jonka täti
tunsi yksityisseikkoja myöten, ei tietystikään kohottanut Joachimia
hänen suosioonsa — täti piti häntä nyt melkein siveellisesti
turmeltuneena.

Tytöillä oli aina paljon puuhaa. He kutoivat, ompelivat

reikäompelusta, harjoittelivat klaveerin — ja harpun soittoa ja lukivat
vielä määrätunnit viikossa ranskaa äitinsä edessä, joka itse oli
saanut vanhan kustavilaisen kasvatuksen, eikä hyväksynyt muita
tapoja lainkaan. Niin mielellään kuin Joachim olisikin tahtonut
seurustella heidän kanssaan, ei hänellä juuri koskaan ollut tilaisuutta
siihen. Siitä saakka kuin Lotti täti oli kerran kuullut hänen
kutomatuvassa laususkelevan uudenaikuista, eurooppalaista
runoutta, epäili hän häntä enemmän kuin ennen.

Joachim oleskeli enimmäkseen metsissä ja vainioilla, hän seurasi

huvitettuna metsän hakkuuta ja alkavia kevättöitä. Joskus teki hän
pitkiä ratsastusretkiä — ratsasti niin että hevonen oli vaahdossa —
vain saadaksensa ratsastaa; kerran oli hän vieraillut pappilassa ja
kerran laamanni Sköldborgin luona, mutta tätä käyntiään hän ei
uudistanut, sillä laamannin rouva ja tyttäret kaikki alkoivat pumputa
häneltä, toinen toistaan salaperäisemmin, tietoja Agnetan ja Stjernen
välisistä asioista, joka tuntui heitä erinomaisesti huvittavan.
Marienholmaan ei hän, vaikka se oli Munkebodan lähin naapuri,
mennyt — hän ei "kärsinyt kosijaa", oli hän Beatalle ilmaissut ja sitte
toisekseen ryypiskeltiin siellä niin rajusti, että jos hän vain kerrankin
koettaisi pitää puoliansa Niilo Olavin rinnalla, loppu varmaan siitä
olisi se, että hän joisi itsensä kuoliaaksi.

Syy kumminkin oli se, että hän ei voinut sietää Niilo Olavin
punakoita kasvoja, ulkonevine, sinisine silmineen — häntä jo niiden
ajatteleminenkin hermostutti. Hän tunsi häntä kohtaan salaista,
voittamatonta, oikeastaan järjetöntä ja aivan perusteetonta
vastenmielisyyttä, joka hetkittäin voi paisua melkein vihaksi, niin
sietämätön oli hänelle ajatus, että tuo hidas köntys kerran olisi
omaava Agnetan joka — sen vannoi hän useammin kuin kerran, oli
kaunein tyttö, minkä hän tunsi, huolimatta siitä, että hän vain oli
skånelainen maalaistyttö ja sitä paitse hänen oma likiserkkunsa,
jonka hän muisti niiltä ajoilta kun tämä kapalossa nukkui.

Iltasin pani Joachim "patiencea", "la Blocade de Copenhague",

pelasi "mustaa Pekkaa" tyttöjen ja mamseli Fikenin kanssa, tahi
bezigueta Niilo sedän kanssa, joka totilasinsa vilkastuttamana, kertoi
aina jotakuinkin samat jutut, kun hän oli 1814 ollut sotajoukon
mukana Norjassa, eli iloisia nuoruusmuistojansa Tukholmasta
sotilasajoiltaan, jolloin hän ihasteli Fredrika Löfiä ja Inga Åbergia, ja
huolimatta Kustaa Adolfin ikävästä hallituksesta oli huvitellut aika
oivallisesti.
 Kello 10 nousi Lotti täti, vaikkapa korttileikki tai joku jutelma olisikin
jäänyt kesken — tunnusteli, josko nurkkakaappinsa sekä
mahonkinen ruokakaappi olivat oikein lukossa, antoi sille tyttäristä,
jolla oli "vuoroviikkonsa" huomispäivää koskevat määräyksensä, ja
pani pois neuleensa, sammuttaen talikynttilän, joka oli hänen
luonaan pöydän päässä.

"Kas niin, Skytte", sanoi hän mahdikkaasti, "nyt on nuorison aika

käydä levolle".

Niilo setä nousi — hänen, enemmän kuin kenenkään muunkaan

päähän ei olisi pistänyt ruveta vastustamaan yksinvaltiasta
majuurskaa, joka seisoi jo talikynttilä kädessä ovella, jossa Joachim
sytytti vahakynttilänsä näyttääkseen tytöille ja itselleen tietä
yläkertaan. Mutta Lotti täti seisoi uskollisesti odottaen kylmässä
etehisessä, kunnes hän näki nuorten eroavan puolipimeässä
ullakkokäytävässä ja sitte vasta meni sänkykamariin kynttilöinensä,
missä se säästäväisesti sammutettiin ja vaihdettiin "tuijuun".

Ja tuon elämän — ja seikkailun haluisen nuoren Skytten täytyi

tyytyä siihen että hän tuli kymmenen aikaan ajetuksi sänkyyn kuin
koulupoika — täytyi, sillä täällä länsi Göingen kihlakunnan
erämaassa ei todellakaan ollut muuta neuvoa yöksi, kuin siivosti
hiipiä vuoteesensa. Hän sadatteli Lotti tätiä ja koko Munkebodan
komentoa — luki hiukan ja nukkui kuin tukki kello puoli seitsemään,
jolloin joku tytöistä naputti hätäisesti ovelle ja pyysi hänen Jumalan
tähden kiiruhtamaan, sillä äitihän niin suuttui, jos hän sai
olutjuustoineen odottaa.

— Tyttöjen kanssa oli hän kohta käynyt tuttavalliseksi varsinkin

Beatan, joka oli niin ystävällinen, iloinen ja sydämellinen. Karin Maria
vivahti paljon täti Lottiin, — hän oli jäykkä, hieno ja piti itsensä aina
arvokkaana, ja kun puheli hänen kanssaan, havaitsi kohta, että hän
oli ajattelevaisempi ja kokeneempi kuin toiset siskot. Hän oli ollut pari
talvea Tukholmassa ja Kristianstadissa ja Joachim oli aluksi hänen
kanssaan paljon tutumpi kuin noiden toisien. Agnetahan oli vain
lapsi, mutta… Hänellä, pikku Agneta serkulla oli lemmen silmät!

Aina ensi näkemästä alkaen ajatteli Joachim useimmiten Agnetaa.

Hän oli niin käsittämätöin — väliin niin lapsellisen raju, niin
teeskentelemättömän luottavainen, avomielinen ja puhelias, väliin
taas niin arka ja epäilevä, umpimielinen ja hiljainen, että Joachim voi
hermostua ja hänen korviansa alkoi poltella, kun hän koetteli
arvaella, "mitä hän oli tehnyt hänelle" eli "jos serkku oli kuullut jotain
hänestä" Agneta voi usein, kuin serkku ei häntä katsellut, istua ja
seurata häntä vihamielisesti ihmetellen, totisilla, mustilla silmillään,
jonka katseen toinen tunsi, vaikkei katsonutkaan häneen, sillä silloin
— sen tiesi hän — loisi Agneta heti silmänsä alas, ja pieni, viehkeä
suu nirpistyisi uhkaavaisesti. Serkku oli aina vakuutettu siitä että tyttö
istui silloin miettien hänen överstin ja tuon kirotun Lotan välistä
juttuaan. Sillä mamseli Fiken tietysti, joka arvatenkin oli harkkinut
jutun tietoonsa, ei ollut voinut hallita kieltään, joskin Lotti täti — sen
huomasi hän nyt — oli sen voinut. Mutta hän erehtyi. Tytöt — yksin
Karin Mariakaan eivät tienneet nyt sen enempää kuin Joachimin
tullessa, he oikeastaan pitivät hänen oleskeluaan Munkebodassa
tavallisena, pitkänpuoleisena sukulaisvierailuna.

Eräänä aurinkoisena, huurteisena päivänä — huhtikuun

puolivälissä — kun nuori Skytte oli tullut kotiin tavalliselta rajulta
ratsastusretkeltään, hän, kuten tavallisesti noustessansa yläkerran
rappuja ylös, näki tyttöjen kamarin harvan oven kautta yli koko
ullakon leviävän valosäteen, ja koska hän juuri oli nähnyt Lotti tädin
kellarissa puuhailevan perunoiden tarkastelemisessa, jotka olivat
"alkaneet itää", seurasi hän tällä kertaa tuota säännöllisesti palaavaa
haluansa käydä tyttöjä tervehtimässä.

Vielä pitkiin saappaisiin ja kannuksiin puettuna seisoi hän

ratsupiiska kainalossa, hattu kädessä ja naputti ovelle.

"Astukaa sisälle"! huudettiin heti kursailematta.

Hän avasi oven ja näki Agnetan kurkollaan akkunan laudalla

pistämässä kanarialintusten häkkiin muutamia vaaleanpunasia
varpuja. Tämä nähdessänsä Joachim serkun, niin hämmästyi, että
oli menettää tasapainon.

"Serkku Joachim…"

Hän aikoi hypähtää alas, mutta nyrjähytti jalkansa ja hän olisi

pudonnut, ellei serkku samassa olisi reippaasti sulkenut hänet
syliinsä.

"Mutta, Agneta, miten sinä voit noin menetellä"!

Tyttö oli käynyt kalpeaksi ja katsoi pelästyneesti ylös häneen

ruskeilla silmillään. Joachim palavissaan vielä ravakasta
ratsastuksestaan ja mäkiä ylös ponnisteltuaan viuhakassa
kevättuulessa ja häikäisevästä valosta ikäänkuin huumaantuneena
— painoi melkein tietämättänsä mitä teki, pikku Agnetan lujemmin
syliinsä, eikä päästänyt häntä irti. Heidän silmänsä yhtyivät pitkään,
hymyilevään katseesen.

"Koskeeko kovin, Agneta serkku?" mutisi hän.

Ja tuntien huumaavan, pyörryttävän tunteen — voimatta siihen

syytä selittää — kuiskasi Agneta, että hän "luuli niin", että koski —
jalkaan…

"Istu nyt"! Serkku asetti hänet varovaisesti, mutta varmasti

sohvalle ja ennenkuin Agneta osasi aavistaakaan, mitä hän aikoi
tehdä, laskeusi hän toiselle polvelleen hänen eteensä ja päästi pian
nauhakengän hänen jalastaan.

"Mutta serkku Joachim…" Hän punastui, mutta ei häntä estänyt —

kumartui vain uteliaasti, hieman ujosti hymyillen hänen ylitseen.

"Jos sitä hiukan hieroo, niin se kyllä paranee", hän siveli

varovaisesti käsiensä välissä kotonaneulotun, pumpulisukan
peittämää pientä lämmintä jalkaa. Heidän katseensa kohtasivat
toisensa jälleen.

Sitte taivuttautui serkku syvään alas ja teki, mitä hän tietysti ei

koskaan olisi tehnyt — hän nojasi kasvonsa jalkapöytään ja suuteli
sitä.

Kuului juoksevia askelia rapuilta. Agneta hehkuvin poskin sekä

aina kaulaan saakka punoittavana kuin veri — painoi jalkansa lujasti
lattiaan ja Joachim hypähti ylös.

Se oli vain Beata. Hän tuli sisälle esiliina täynnä ruokaomenoita,

kädessä vati ja pari hopeaista veistä.

"Kas vain, Joachim serkku"! sanoi hän vähän nolostuen, mutta ei

kumminkaan niin pahoin pelästyen.

"Niin, ovi oli auki ja kun näin Agnetan putoavan akkunan

laudalta…" selitteli Joachim vähän katkonaisesti, eikä aivan totuuden
mukaisesti.
 Beata ei kuunnellutkaan. Hän tahtoi käyttää tilaisuutta hyväkseen
saadaksensa Agnetalta vähän apua omenan kuorinnassa, äidin
ollessa perunakellarien tarkastuksilla. Ja jos Joachim serkku piti
heille seuraa — niin se vielä parempi!

Sitte istuutuivat he kaikki upean, marmoripöydän ympärille.

Punaiset, kapeat kuorikiehkurat kertyivät kasaksi tyttöjen eteen
heidän puhellessaan, ja omenalohot vadissa vetäysivät
tummanruskeiksi.

Äiti piti niin tärkeänä että omenatorttu saataisiin valmiiksi tänä

päivänä, kun leivottiin ja kun suurta uunia oli lämmitetty, sillä
sotaneuvos Fagerhjelm oli ilmoittautunut vieraaksi ylihuomenna koko
perheineen, matkustaessansa kotiin Kristianstadiin.

"Minä kyllä sen tiesin", Beata keräili molemmin käsin, ympäri

pöytää levinneet kuoret.

"Minä tiesin sen! Karin Marialta hävisi kampa, kun hän kampasi
tänä aamuna, ja harakat ovat nauraneet koko päivän. Se ennustaa
aina vieraiden tuloa".

"Tuhat tulimmaista"! nauroi Joachim ja ojensi mukavasti

ratsusaappaissa olevia jalkojaan "sittepä teidän harakkaraukkanne
eivät usein saa avata suutaan".

"Ja ajattele, miten mukavaa, tuo tyhmä kalkkunakana oli hukkua

rankkisaaviin tänään ja katkasi jalkansa, muutoin äiti ei varmaan
mitenkään olisi hennonut valmistaa sitä Fagerhjelmiläisille."

"Minusta tuntuu kuin en ennen koskaan olisi kuullut heistä

puhuttavan", lisäsi siihen Joachim miettiväisesti. "He eivät asuneet
Kristianstadissa minun aikaani".

"Ei, setä Fagerhjelm onkin äskettäin vasta muuttanut sinne, mutta

äiti ja hänen rouvansa ovat pikkuserkut. Setä on Smålantilainen",
lisäsi Beata vähän säälivällä, melkeinpä halveksivalla äänenpainolla,
jolla todellinen göingeläinen puhuu smålantilaisesta.

"Ja Susen on ollut Wexjeen kasvatuslaitoksessa, hän puhuu

Upplannin murretta", lörpötteli Beata yhä edelleen.

"Fröken FFagedrhjelm"! matki Agneta veitikkamaisesti, onnistuen

hyvin koetellessansa lausua kovia rr'iä.

"Ja ajatteles sillä tavoin ei puhu edes Joachim serkkukaan, joka

on ollut jo niin kauan Tukholmassa"! Beatan katseessa,
kääntyessänsä serkkuun, oli sekä kunnioitusta että ihailua.

"Niin ei tee kukaan skånelainen, joka tuntee oman arvonsa", lausui

Joachim vakuuttavaisesti.

Agneta alkoi jälleen selvitä tajuntaansa. Hän asetti molemmat

punaruutuisen villahameen lyhyiden hihojen paljaiksi jättämät
käsivartensa pöydälle ja kurkisti veitikkamaisesti:

"Kun nyt Joachim serkku saapi nähdä Susenin…" tämä Joachimin

"kiusoitteleminen" tuotti hänelle nyt kiihoittavaa, ennentuntematonta
huvia.

"Susenini, Susenini, — ihastuttava! Mikä vartalo" matki Beata

parrakasta sotaneuvosta, kierrellen kuviteltuja viiksiänsä.

"Ja miten ihailtu tuo Susen sitte on!" jatkoi Agneta samanlaisella
äänellä. "Hän on jo ollut kihloissa kahdentoista arvoasteikossa
kulkian kanssa!"

Joachim nauroi ääneen ja kumartausi alas nähdäksensä oikein

Agnetan veitikkamaiset, voiton varmat, kiihoittavaisesti hymyilevät
silmät. "Ja Agneta serkku toivoo siis että minä tulisin
kolmanneksitoista!" sanoi hän muka loukkaantuneena, katsoen
suoraan tytön silmiin.

"Ei, luutnanteista ensimäinen" vastasi Agneta erittäin kohteliaasti.

Hänen silmänsä saivat yht'äkkiä tietämättään, vallattoman, riemua
sädehtivän ilmeen, kun hän kohottausi, päätään taaksepäin heittäen.

"Nyt on jo aika Susenin alkaa uusi tusina!"

"Agneta, Agneta!" varoitti Beata nuhtelevaisesti noustessaan ja

hankkiutuessaan, vati käsivarrellaan, lähtöön.

Mutta Joachim nauroi täyttä kurkkua — hän tunsi kuinka hän päivä
päivältä pääsi yhä enemmän serkkujensa "perille".

Agneta oli myöskin noussut paikaltaan sohvalta ja koetti melkein

hermostuneella kiireellä laittautua valmiiksi heti seuraamaan
sisartaan. Joachim piti kohteliaasti ovea auki Beatalle, joka
molemmilla käsillään kantaen kukkuraista vatia, oli jo ullakossa. Kun
Agneta kulki hänen sivuitsensa, kumartausi hän häneen päin.

"Miten on jalan laita, Agneta?"

Ja hän, joka äsken oli ollut niin veitikkamaisen varma, hymyilevä ja

hilpeä hiipi nyt hänen ohitsensa punaisena kuin veri aina
hiusmartoon saakka, arka, puoleksi suuttunut, puoleksi rukoileva
katse nyt mustissa silmissään.
 Etehisen ovi avattiin reippaasti ulkoa päin. "Äiti!" kuiskasi matalalla
äänellä pimeän ullakon läpi varoittavaisesti Beata — joka jo oli
melkein alhaalla.