Rati onol tnpccta4ians

ns a Conce pt
Th otional enpec dat'nsAKiok
wA-wrdely

a C Ke e Comouies. Ths, AkLot pouks AKat

wdiudhals base Ahei

deewsios co 3 pkA
acdr ; Ahiin huuman ationalil nfohratOn
J
AVaulal\ to Ahem a h i pask erpL nD,
he Hoftoma
enpee totions ypolkiAvs .

oKigially, A7d y ukn (geci) Mull (1941)

npla Kes lhe outcome a 9wm elonomae
ahenomena dependss to Cer am dafaR wkat
CAec to KaPAenh Coneapt katiaa
enpeelo4ions amdts hat teomas do ndt d R
Ayslamaki talty (i e keg alanl or pkadiefoll
wkat ptople erpaeld hem to be. s Cnerpt as
motivala.d by ha Aame dhinking Uat Audt Abrakan
d i ntalur to aheut, ¥ y ou Can for omt flhs.

AReplo all ofue Jine adall h peepl

ome f he i , bnk you Can nt fook. all ofla

pepla oll of ue Jm

nplo enpeelad Ralis a t i o u Fok enaaple

fhoAm Halas w l am e smor Wetehgken

havenpeeld wkpast, peaple CanvAidn u

oona twt be hduCneots to alume uat
wlotin ma whv Ouase l a hluke
 n
Ratrmal énpcelatims Keors weu develeopes
lours koxies basrs
AApoSt. to pereive
enpeelatios
wind dely Odpthve peca tiors, d e r adaplie.
e e t a t i o n s f le -fulwee Valine of eche am

o,Aits lkat
valnes, ha. tatomal
Vakiai ar basad 0> pasl
3 pA wsed to port-
aecladiows polhesis as ee
As fokpatron
Cnelusions a b o - ecomomde poku
tRong
npLklntAs,

hak
diuiddualy Ro Hatoal odeensaom
hle be

mak 1 s I s esk- avaikadl mfbKmatior

k) Ml (1961)
aK ake Jeeisions, adapli decsiow makeas|
pask frud
deges n wkat
A L a p t v e enpeefatons Cam

orn eapt f Katioal ptedict flotiom

do ndt d f r
ic iasly) m

iat Jet fAbrokam

f ll psapl
7 fool all u

-Fo eBpke.,
Weu hgkar

CnvAidn us
Aum ht
 2 p l h
S t n( m )

Walk f Cnsumption Enperdata

Kadem
Rardom
his faieus
Cwds an Walk Hall droducr
Rebeedt Hall Was
Anh a Cowuptor
1978
walk mo J l
pedenA

Cawdumptior,
Hs Ahraky Stals
nAL clations -for
M a n e d o m

pemanint wCom
Jton f dmams
Aa
Cohtect k i h i/kont
pohaes a lha Auum
iese
Shordd e
Kasitot
Pekmani Com
n

depends p u a u
G AMalt.eokump4i0 CnAunens Kove Katkimol
g t trade
aned
pecmanvt Cone
C oCowauuptro
wAunpho
cha-qs
enpeeta trers, hen, n
athon 9uhl i . e follrs
oa tando
e unpkodieanl
heruld
weraAccakdrug
o
Walk. talls hoght CmAnumers
deal
hCom hypelhrsis,
pecmanend

Consuption .
Ove At a y g n
ime
Selecls kain eowsumpBon
base d
a CMuner
ls soknati on ef uir ife-line
Aheit atenl enpeelattas
Gn
Ahiiv fe, CamAumens modid
Come. Fhonghout

Ahiin Cansumpto heeawe

hey reeine nii
Ahian dpust Akaie enprea -

foxomafion hat maKes

Gs, For enamPha Cawarmer Keerives a n
un eMpeela pRomo *LM t WoNK a Ckaseß
Langs Suek
Cnumptm wfera a Comduaer ZKat s
pkompt mave-
menpe el y Jtel o demalkd dl decrase
Cammption.So,Ckams Canduaupho
 h
h C
o o
m mee,
, Y
-Arme.
- lmk
Jife
Jufe all availoksps fon-
tnfok-
aorut eort a v a i k a j

MeelAwpkuss a all Roet

usmg &b
aks
Gpliumally

be
AwphusLd
fo CwAumpta
ConsuntS
Ahonld
hoy
a t t n ,
hen M A C m p k e l l l y u m p r e p u t e o A f e

Gndamaly
orrts
Consonphon

CanaMantks
ekargus m
atroma

The fore,
as w
w e ll
l
unpxedetrbl policy ehs
la

Pelie eha
Model The Eler
Jh
Case .
peeatic
period
COnANdtA
a fwr -

uhis model s CwAupt

Cation fok peAnin

uC) = ue)-

pkaferenca
Abytesive limt i s mbde.
wien ò l
od E,
Cawsfamk-
wterstXta ate mp
t is Ahe uiod 1
kale, unpu
Cnditnal empLelati at h i CanA
5ha

lhe uilifunction about

A s s u u Kat
ad = , e4pakion- (1)
wul
yuld
9na dxalie Adva
E,C2C
A p p l y l edfinit- afenpeckotosto
Cowsumf
:
guatiom (2) Wil gie Kaditko

C C+ ¬2 () Firak
Cave

gk3
wKo e E
Jmal Cwauph a
.E)
Random Walk
is f
e eeu Cawsumptuon a
tor y-
Cn-d

Emaupti tom pkonvLons period pls a

mhovaAiu t m
 ImpliCafi Cws

avaulabia. *folt-
K e Halls Matroal enARelation appkoaeh
tpkused Gnly
to CvAumpio eaalus ipicationsfon foxa.CaslE
Caresumes
1pkedetrkle

e exmomui polices.
amaly Rane
Auwption hards Come Kypolhesis a
p monin* -

attma enpeela tioms l l e onl wnenpedad

Thise
CcoAuannp tiom
P policy ekangrs flutnca
efe ct
wk lng ea
eharg
polic ekages Jake
pokay Cfaqes oHet
The Euler
ue
npeetations, {hon
as mu as Ahay afe
CnAption: Gly
nome. fwthvmaka enky, mw tok-
pmatnt
-9 T0 a t pouicies Cam affe permanin oud,
phaferunca
msmiddel npliss lhat chanas CmAnanp
t
atz dE, eeawse CawAunntS
ate unpkrdetaslo
tiane peied 1 Ka
her CanAuamptiom Gbt-
wken hap
Ksoteas
abant Ahe Afe ure
-

1)ll yuld
SAvanlae6,
hs Ewder cauatos to eslimal
wse f
Kowe advanlaqes Oer
Cowsusmptio appeas to

tHaditional models,

is rrplv han
FirAk w E wlvc -e4 watioms

.Ey'y
Ramdon Wolk
to o l Ue CusumeS oplimizaton pkoblem
appeaung. element fwA
Hio-u fl an s Aha
ecmauuuAks,
xiod plus e Ewlen gpaios ,to o m
 Ckitiesms

eg
a tatios
u G n s to medel Cowuuptio. When PP }
RAs
Th Ewlw Consusnpti eq uatiows Gw
tReiubja nplaimu-g empuical dala . AHe-pli

wse he Eul equatns to moolel. CmAu

mpti l Stals ^as ld pone.

eemenmsts o Marct s Radom WalkK
KypolhsS, Some aree a t Mis due
M meodels wai o
eoe CauÄunee
pRoereneA Variolles Aueh as mterlempokal_
elas Avsltuti on