Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154

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Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

Historical assessment and future sustainability challenges of Egyptian

water resources management
Pingping Luo a, b, Yutong Sun b, *, Shuangtao Wang b, **, Simeng Wang c, Jiqiang Lyu a, b, ***,
Meimei Zhou a, b, ****, Kenichi Nakagami c, Kaoru Takara d, Daniel Nover e
a
Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054, China
b
School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054, China
c
Graduate School of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan
d
Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies (GSAIS) in Human Survivability (Shishu-Kan), Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
e
School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, 5200 Lake R, Merced, CA, 95343, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The sustainable and efficient use of water is of vital importance, and the uneven distribution of water in
Received 20 September 2019 the world means that it is especially important for water-scarce countries. Egypt is an arid country with
Received in revised form an ancient civilization and a long history that was and remains dependent on the trans-boundary water
31 January 2020
resources of the Nile River. Historically complicated, water resource management in Egypt is becoming
Accepted 15 March 2020
more so in the face of urbanization and population growth. We present a comprehensive overview of the
Available online 29 March 2020
water management policies in Egypt to identify current trends and conditions. Under the population
Handling editor: Xin Tong growth, the available water use for all the governorates is shown the decreasing trend in 2025 compared
with that in 2012, but only the available water use in governorate of Red Sea is shown the increasing
Keywords: trend with 0.022 BCM(Billion Cubic Meter) in 2025 than that in 2012. Historical assessment of water
Water resources management resources management allows for the reconsideration of present conditions and planning for future
Historical assessment sustainability challenges. Egypt’s present national plan reflects a transition from traditional approaches
Sustainability to demand management. At the same time, responsibility for water resources management has shifted
Egypt
from the local to the national level. Sustainability of water resource systems will require consideration of
Urban development
the negative impacts of population growth as well as urban development and further coordination of
national and local priorities. This study explores the changes and reforms of water policies in Egypt, as
well as challenges and implications for sustainable water governance and management.
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction contemporary pressures. Reviewing historical management ap-

proaches in Egypt as well as current conditions is very important to
As urbanization and population growth exacerbate water plan future water resource management strategies.
resource challenges, many countries face water shortages. Egypt is Human society depends on unevenly distributed natural re-
a historically water-stressed country that is facing increasing sources for water supply (WWAP, 2014). Over 60% of African pop-
ulations suffer from water scarcity according to accepted
definitions (scarcity <1000 m3) (Falkenmark et al., 1989) and con-
ditions are expected to deteriorate in the future given trends in
* Corresponding authors. population growth and climate change (Falkenmark and
** Corresponding author. €m, 2004). The following studies identified unfavorable
Rockstro
*** Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological
Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054
water scarcity trends and complex causes, including climate change
China. and human modification of water resources as the result of popu-
**** Corresponding author.Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological lation growth and other factors (Haddeland et al., 2014; Gosling and
Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054 Arnell, 2016). The UNDP Human Development Report (2006)
China.
concluded that socio-political factors may help release stress due
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (Y. Sun), [email protected]
(S. Wang), [email protected] (J. Lyu), [email protected] (M. Zhou). to water scarcity, which implies that good management is a key

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121154
0959-6526/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
2 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154

solution to reduce water shortages and promote water security. in 2012 and 2025 and the changes between 2012 and 2025. Based
Although the notion of Integratlarrtter Resources Management on the historical review assessment and the analysis of present and
(IWRM) was first articulated more than 60 years ago, it remains a future conditions of water resource, we provide some detail sug-
challenge to implement (Biswas, 2004). Recent insights suggest gestions for improving the future water use efficiency and sus-
that adaptive management and learning from experience can add tainable water resource management in Egypt. The results of this
value to the IWRM process (Pahl-Wostl, 2007) and reduce the stress study offer insights that will be useful to national and local gov-
of water scarcity in the future. It is important that understanding ernments and researchers to identify options for water resources
the statement of water quality (Luo et al., 2019) and stopping the management, particularly given trends in global change.
pollution is also one of the key measures to release the stress of
water scarcity. Human activities have many effects on the water 2. Study area and data collection
scarcity problem, it is essential to have a good water resource
management to deal with the water shortage problem. Egypt, the most populated country in North Africa, developed
Although a great deal of research has focused on water resources rapidly with dramatic increases in population from 1950 to 2020
management, there are ample opportunities to improve the body of (Fig. 1). The estimated population in 2020 under standard pro-
knowledge through systematic analyses of historical water re- jections is more than 5 times the 1950 population. The per capita
sources management. Historical studies have been conducted at GDP (Gross Domestic Product) also doubled over the last decade
many spatial and temporal scales. A historical assessment of water and shows a rising projected growth rate for the next few years. The
resource management was conducted for the Veneto Region, Italy, Nile is the longest of the world’s large rivers and 40% of its length
to illustrate the historical evolution of water resource management flows through arid and hyper-arid drylands. Egypt is in the
in the Veneto region(Rosato and Stellin, 2003). Comparative studies downstream of the Nile River and water is limited due to water
of historical flood management in China and Japan were conducted consumption in upper stream reaches in several countries. The IPCC
to provide recommendations for sustainably managing future flood summary report of 2013 explains that annual precipitation in the
disasters (Luo et al., 2015). Similarly, a research investigated the NRB decreased from 1951 to 2010. In Egypt, annual precipitation of
historical pattern of domestic water supply development and the NRB is 200 mm in the coastal region, about 50e100 mm in the
IWRM from 1930 in Tanzania and attempted to account for water middle, and nearly zero in the upper stream after the Aswan Dam.
supply system failure (Maganga et al., 2002). Water resources As rainfall is not the main source of water in the Egyptian water
management in South African was studied for the period 1956 to supply, the country must depend on water from the outflow of the
1998 (Matete, 2005). Several studies focus on the historical review Aswan Dam.
of water policy reforms in South Korea (Choi et al., 2017), water Balancing anthropogenic water use and natural supply is
resource management policy in Japan (Musiake et al., 2009), and complicated in water-stressed Egypt (Falkenmark and Rockstro €m,
water policy in Canada (Michaels and de Loe €, 2010). These studies 2004). Kummu et al. (2010) studied global physical water short-
offer incitement to meet emerging challenges for sustainable water ages occurring over the last two centuries and found that North
management. Contemporary water resources management in- Africa has suffered from water scarcity from the 1900s. Water re-
tegrates social and physical sciences, and aims to manage domestic sources challenges in the future are likely to be more severe and
water supply and demand, partly through water markets and partly complicated than in the past. Climate change in the NRB poses a
through legal and institutional frameworks, particularly in trans- major challenge for water resources management and drives un-
boundary basins that face complex management contexts (Lund, certain phenomena in nature, such as flood and droughts, defor-
2015). Loucks and Beek (2017) described water management as estation and loss of biodiversity (UNEP, 2011; Hu et al., 2019).
an evolving problem deserving of constant and systematic study, Haddeland et al. (2014) studied models to project basin water
and unlikely to be resolved in any permanent way. These historical availability under climate change and human interventions. The
reviews of water resource management provide collective experi- results suggest that the water resources of the NRB are under
ence and offer insights that can guide the development of future negative effects from both climate change and human impacts.
water resources management. Additionally, Conway (1996) focused on regional water resources
Egypt is located in northeast Africa and consists of 96% arid projections for Egypt and determined that desert reclamation has
desert. Arable land area accounts for only 4%, mainly concentrated consumed a great deal of water resources. Rethinking spatial vari-
in the Nile delta and the Nile basin. About 96% of the country’s ation in water demand and implementation of rational water
population live here. At the same time, more than 80% of water management are therefore vital for sustainable management of
resources in Egypt are supplied by the Nile (Ministry of Water Egypt’s water resources.
Resources and Irrigation, 2005). Expected growth of the Egyptian Population data for Egypt from 1950 to 2020 were collected
population and economic development over the coming decades from the World Bank (http://www.worldbank.org/). The adminis-
will increase water demand and thus aggravate water scarcity trative population data for 1986 and 2012 was generated according
(Schewe et al., 2014). Haddeland et al. (2014) showed that in the to original population data from the United Nations Demographic
Nile River Basin (NRB), climate variability drives variability of water Yearbook and the administrative map from the FAO (http://www.
resource associated with human impacts. Pacini and Harper (2016) fao.org/home/en/). The population is ranked in five classes ac-
reviewed the hydrological characteristics of the Nile and concluded cording to Jenk’s natural break optimization. The demographic data
that the development of riparian countries and unilateral man- is from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistic of
agement affect the water resource management of the basin. Pop- Egypt (http://www.capmas.gov.eg/HomePage.aspx). Watershed
ulation growth and economic development represent emerging data comes from Abdel-Shafy et al. (2013). Satellite images of the
challenges for the sustainable management of water in Egypt. Nile Delta region from 1984 to 2012 were obtained from Google
This study uses historical literature and official documents to Earth.
analyze Egypt’s water management history. Reviewing historical
water resource management is the first step toward understanding 3. Methodology for historical assessment
sustainable water resources management in Egypt and rethinking
water resource challenges for arid North Africa. We also present the Fig. 2 shows this study’s research framework, which includes
spatial available water use statements at 27 governorates of Egypt four main parts: literature review and data collection, evaluation,
 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154 3

Fig. 1. Population of Egypt from 1950 to 2020 (data source: United nations DESA/Population division).

Fig. 2. Research framework for the historical assessment and future sustainability challenges of Egyptian water resources management.

historical review and rethinking, and discussion of future sustain- stress is exacerbated by environmental and climatic change.
ability challenges. First, we collected historical documents (e.g.
books, drawings), previous literature, government reports, socio-
economic and environmental data. Second, we sequence signifi- 4.1. Water management in ancient Egypt
cant information related to Egyptian water resources management
chronologically to describe the evolution of water management. Egyptian civilization originated between 11,000 and 10,000
Third, we propose a strategy to rethink the present water resources years ago alongside the Nile River. Five thousand years later, this
management situation through a historical lens. Finally, future civilization came to depend on the annual inundation area from the
sustainability challenges for Egyptian water resources management Nile River (Larry, 2010). The formation of the Sahara Desert can be
are discussed. The implications of our results are provided to traced to around 3400 BC (Before Christ), which, combined with the
facilitate sustainable water management in Egypt. inundation frequency of the river, indicates that the limitation of
water resources in North Africa has been a long-standing problem.
However, the thriving civilization along the Nile River indicates that
4. Historical overview of Egyptian water resources local people managed the water effectively through history.
management Human activities have left significant marks, beginning after the
last glacial period. According to Susan and Emerita (2003), during
The civilization of ancient Egypt was sustained based on man- the late Stone Age, many societies developed alongside the Upper
agement of water resources from the Nile River. We provide a Nile River in modern day southern Egypt and northern Sudan.
historical overview of Egyptian water resources management to put Evidence for water diversions for barley harvesting appears as early
current conditions in historical context. The Nile River still provides as 16000 BC. Egypt experienced a great wet phase, beginning from
the essential water resources to riparian countries even as water 9000 BC and peaking about 7000 BC. People naturally moved
4 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154

outward from the upper basin to a larger area. Egyptian historical systems. This technology was accomplished by a new device called
periods from the Old Stone Age to the sixth century are listed shaduf (water-lifting tool), which contributed to irrigation
chronologically in Table 1. activities.
The ancient civilizations in the Nile valley did not leave many Ancient people made efforts to adapt to natural floods, geolog-
water management records, despite clues that strongly suggest ical elevation, and capricious climates. Generally, the principle of
management strategies. During the Predynastic Period, the mace water management reflects the efforts of human populations to
head of King Scorpion was recorded as a sign of breaching a dyke to protect land from the Nile’s flooding and sustain agricultural
make a new canal, the first record of water management (Angelakis activities.
and Zheng, 2015). In 1975 BC, ending with the First Intermediate
Period, the Middle Kingdom began, and basin irrigation appeared 4.2. Water management in modern Egypt
in history. The Nile flood regime is predictable in time and generally
lasts about 110 days beginning in June. This predictability provides The colonial period of the Nile Valley had profound implications
good conditions for irrigation, and large sections of the floodplain for water management. Water management stood at the center of
were managed as single units. By the late Predynastic times, people different competing powers, with a focus on the water rights to
transferred from natural to artificial flood management by building large rivers. The French occupation of Egypt (1798e1801) fore-
canals and other waterways (Larry, 2010). shadowed the current legal system, with the Napoleonic code still
The major irrigation region before Graeco-Roman times was supporting the current Egyptian legal system. In 1882, the British
Faiyum, in the southwest of Cairo, naturally formed by wind 1.8 occupied Egypt and significantly altered the Delta region after-
billion years ago (Ball, 1939). During the Middle Kingdom, the wards. During that period, the British developed the Nile to bolster
depression was connected to the Nile by an artificial canal (Bahr cotton production and cotton exports to England and to stabilize
Yousef) (Shabrawy and Dumont, 2009), and formed a permanent the economy in Egypt to foster stability at Suez (Tvedt, 2011). The
lake (Lake Moeris) which worked as a buffering zone for floods Kingdom of Egypt was established in 1922 under the British gov-
(Larry, 2010). Flood control played an important role in bringing ernment. Later, in 1953, the Republic of Egypt became an inde-
water and nutrition to the depression, and construction of canals pendent country. During the British occupation, two movements
expanded irrigation areas in Faiyum (John, 2011). However, the influenced water management in Egypt which remain influential
water level of Lake Moeris dropped due to the construction of an today. The first was an agreement between Egypt and Sudan that
embankment to interrupt the flow from the Nile during the set the available water for Egypt at 55 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM).
Ptolemies Period (Said, 1993). And the second was the construction of the Old Aswan Dam in
Water shortages occurred in ancient times due to climate con- 1902. The Dam was part of a plan to control all floods, to store water
ditions, geographical features, and political conflicts and led to for irrigation in the long-term, and to develop hydroelectric power
artificial water storage tools. Onsite water storage was historically (Gilbert, 1988).
employed as a part of the management system. The first large-scale Though later the Aswan High Dam was constructed for larger
dam was the Sadd-el-Kafara Dam, also known as the Dam of the demand, they share the same purposes. The artificial Lake Nassar
Pagans, which was confirmed to be constructed for flood control in was formed as a product of the Aswan High Dam, and until now
2650 B.C during the Kingdom of Egypt period (Fahlbusch, 2009; stores waters for downstream regions. Since then, the control of the
Larry, 2010). The dam was designed to store 0.5 million m3 and Aswan High Dam has been an important aspect of Egyptian water
measured 14 m in height and 113 m in length (Schnitter, 1994), and resources management. Water related infrastructure and agree-
was protected from flood events (Larry, 2010). Murray (1955) stated ments are still in service, but whether these strategies are suitable
that the dam was intended to store the largest flood in Wadi el- for current conditions needs to be explored. Aside from the large
Garawi. Clearly, water management at that time combined flood projects, Egypt implemented two plans for better water resources
control with water storage for irrigation. Later, the storage function management from 1978 to 2017 that form the modern and sys-
of dams and reservoirs became an important water management tematic approach to managing water resources.
tool. Wittfogel (1957) suggested that water irrigation infrastructure Egyptian debate around water policy started from about 1975.
was made possible by the centralized government, a view sup- The first national plan was released in 1978, called the General
ported by contexts in China, Central America, Sri Lanka, India, Egypt Policy. By that time, the Ministry of Irrigation (re-arranged later as
and East Africa. Other important technologies also developed in the current Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation) drafted the
these periods. For example, lifting of water improved irrigation plan for the development of water resources. It concentrated on the
problem of agricultural water consumption and adjusted institu-
tional structure to support implementation. The contents included
Table 1
irrigation policies, drainage policies and instructions for horizontal
Timeline of Ancient Egypt history (Larry, 2010).
projects for agricultural expansion. The General Policy was the first
Period Date official examination of water supply and demand. It showed that
Epi-Paleolithic 5000 B.C.e4000 B.C. improved water use efficiency was essential and consequently,
Predynastic Period 5200 B.C.e3050 B.C. eight policies that worked in two stages were designed to over-
Early Dynastic Period 3050 B.C.e2700 B.C. come the problems related to irrigation, drainage and underground
Dynastic Period 2700 B.C.e332 B.C.
Old Kingdom (Pyramid Age) 2700 B.C.e2215 B.C.
water. The irrigation water problems were defined as the rational
First Intermediate, 7the10th dynasties 2250 B.C.e2040 B.C. utilization problem, leakage problem, and soil deterioration prob-
Middle Kingdom, 11the12th dynasties 2040 B.C.e1715 B.C. lem. As a solution, a Rational Irrigation Water Utilization Plan was
Second Intermediate, 13the17th dynasties 1715 B.C.e1570 B.C. enacted in 1975 and was achieved over two years. Canals and
New Kingdom, 18the20th dynasties 1570 B.C.e1070 B.C.
drainage networks were enlarged to include 55,000 km of canals
Late Period, 21ste31st dynasties 1070 B.C.e332 B.C.
Graeco-Roman Period 332 B.C.e641 A.D. and a total of 70 million m3 volume. Irrigation evolved to surface
Macedonian 332 B.C.e323 B.C. and sprinkler patterns by introducing night irrigation. Moreover,
Ptolemaic 323 B.C. 30 B.C. policies that support agricultural companies were included to
Roman e Byzantine 30 B.C.e641 A.D. improve water efficiency. Horizontal projects were launched to
Arab Conquest 641 A.D.
promote agricultural activities. Those projects promoted drainage
 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154 5

network construction and production at the same time. Indeed, being the central participants to being one of many stakeholders as
government encouraged infrastructure construction aimed to assist the central government took a more dominant role in managing
the establishment of pumping stations and electricity provision. water resources.
With the end of the plan, administrative adjustments were done at IWRM is considered essential by many international declara-
the national and local levels. This movement stressed the impor- tions, the most well-known of which is the Dublin Statement
tance of scientific research for water resources management and (ICWE, 1992), which emphasizes that water management is a
constructed an organizational management system focused on multi-level approach which should involves users, decision-makers
water resources (The Ministry of Irrigation, 1978). and planners. Results from public participation is filtered from end-
The second national water resources plan, enacted from 2005, users to policy-makers through two patterns and seven levels ac-
contained the management plan from 2002 to 2017. This plan cording to Mostert (2006). As agriculture accounts for 80% of
initially aroused the national awareness of water issues that was Egyptian water consumption, agricultural water use and supply is
vital for an arid country with little annual precipitation. Compared emphasized in the national plans (MWRI, 2005). These actions
to past national water resources plans, it was comprehensive and reflect a shift from traditional approaches to demand management
goal-oriented. The final goal of this plan was to ensure develop- as the government tried to manage water resource based on water
ment without compromising the water environment by guiding demand for local stakeholders. The first water resource plan (1978)
both the public and private sectors. It first introduced IWRM as a effectively began national-level water resources management and
principle concept in Egyptian water management. The definition applied lessons learned to the policy making processes. This na-
was cited in the Ministry’s report as a coordinating management tional plan focused on raising the efficiency of the huge water
process of water and relevant resources, to optimize economic and network by consolidating the companies to work on maintenance
social conditions without sacrificing the sustainability of natural and to reduce labor. Great effort was made during 1975 to reduce
ecosystems (Agarwal et al., 2000). The definition indicated two water-loss by evaporation and transpiration. The 2017 National
characteristics of water issues. First, people should be aware of the Water Resource Plan for Egypt in 2005 included the idea of the First
limited and vulnerable nature of water. Second, stakeholder Water Resource Plan, created detailed research into current con-
participation is very important for solving water problems. In this ditions, and enshrined IWRM as the foundation of national-level
national plan, the main challenges for the future were identified as water resources management (2005). Agricultural development
the growing population, limited water supply and water pollution. in the 2005 plan presents details that are very similar to the pre-
To overcome these challenges, the plan applies the “Facing the vious plan, while including an analysis of the water resources
Challenge” strategy that includes measures to improve the effi- system, the policy context, and an analysis of future conditions and
ciency of water resources system, to explore additional resources, challenges for the system. The 2005 plan is concerned with water
and measures in the field of water quality and environmental supply, water demand and socio-economic development, exploring
protection. The plan also inherited many projects left from the measures to optimize existing water use and to protect human
previous plan, such as the horizontal projects conducted from 1975. health and the environment. Compared with the National water
The six chapters of the national plan describe current water re- resource plan in 1978, the National Water Resource Plan in 2005
sources conditions and relevant policies. The main policy to face the provides a great deal more detail regarding present conditions,
challenges was to increase water supply by improving water use policy strategy, and future challenges. It also gives more detailed
efficiency. Another important improvement of the current national measures and policies to deal with water sustainability in the
plan was the consideration of public health and the water envi- future.
ronment. The effectiveness of this plan depends on both the gov-
ernment and the involvement of different stakeholders. The new 4.4. Water use in Egypt
point of view in the last chapter also suggested future directions for
water resources management (MWRI, 2005). Mostly covered by the Sahara Desert, Egypt’s population is
concentrated along the NRB and Delta region. A spatial map of total
4.3. Historical evolution of water management in Egypt population in each governorate in 1986 and 2012 was created to
reveal changes (Fig. 4). The data was generated according to the
Egyptian water resources management supported the expan- original population data from the United Nations Demographic
sion of population growth and other human activities. Fig. 3 pre- Yearbook and the administrative map from FAO. The population of
sents the three main stages of water resources management in governorates is ranked in five classes according to Jenk’s natural
Egypt from past to future. The first stage is seasonal management break optimization. Fig. 4 shows that the Giza, Qalyubia, Monufia,
done by farmers when people relied on Nile inundation for irri- Gharbia, Dakahlia and Sharqia near Cairo showed rapidly
gation. In this stage, water lifting technologies and basin irrigation increasing populations during 1986e2012. The population of Sohag
systems were developed. Basin irrigation systems store flood water and Asyu  t in the middle stream of the Egyptian Nile River has a
during flood periods and deliver water to farmland via canals. The significant increasing trend in 2012 which have amount 0.7 times
second stage is the colonial period that brought the technology of compared with that in 1986. Significant increases in population and
perennial irrigation and a consequent explosion of human activity. a very dry climate pushed Egypt into a typical pattern of water
During this period, the Suez Canal was built (1859), the First Nile inequity, particularly as population is distributed unevenly among
Waters Agreement was signed with the British (1929), the Sudan governorates, each of which has a different level of water stress.
Nile Agreement was signed, and the Aswan High Dam was Water use in Egypt varies considerably among consumer sectors
completed (1967). The first water resources plan was published by and spatially, as described above. Agriculture is the main sector and
the government in 1978. The last stage required IWRM in the consumes around 86% of water resources. Industrial and domestic
context of transboundary basins according to previous studies and sectors consumed 6 and 8% of water resources in Egypt, respec-
is clearly promoted in the current national water resources plan for tively (FAO,2005). Due to the spatial limitation of water, agricultural
a sustainable water future. The Irrigation and Drainage Law, the activies are distributed unequally. It is important to estimate water
Pollution Law, the Environment Law, and the Farmer Participation allocation regionally. This can be done in a rough and simple way by
Law were published. The government presented the National Wa- multiplying existing available water resources per capita with the
ter Resource Plan (2002e2017) in 2002. Farmers’ roles shifted from population in the governorate for 2012 and 2025. Water availability
6 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154

Fig. 3. Historical evolution of Water Resources Management in Egypt.

estimated this way is presented for different administrative di- with the significant color changes. All the governorates had the
visions (“governorate” in English and “Wilayah” in Egyptian). There decrease trend on the total available water use in 2025.
are 27 governorates including three Frontier Governorates and five The available water use change between 2012 and 2025 is
Urban Governorates and others in Upper and Lower Egypt(Fig. 5 a) shown in Fig. 5 d). The output was based on the result of “Water use
and Table 2). 2025 minus Water use 2012”, clearly showing a decreasing trend in
Fig. 5 b) shows the spatial water use condition of each gover- water use of each governorate from 2012 to 2025. The decrease of
norate in 2012. The data was generated according to Abdel-Shafy total available water use in the delta regions of the Nile River is the
et al. (2013). The available water use per capita in 2012 was most significant. While the national population increased from 78.6
considered to be 633 m3 multiplied by the demographic data from to 100 million, the available water resources per capita decreased,
the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistic of Egypt - as did the total water use of each governorate. The available water
results in the total water use in 2012. The governorate of Cairo has use change in the governorate of Cairo is significant decreased
the most available water use at 5.5BCM, followed by the concen- with 0.562 BCM. The second place of available water use change is
trated agricultural land in the delta regions of the Nile River. The in the other area with 0.298 BCM. The third one is in the gover-
available water use of Sohag is amount 2.666 BCM even though the norate of Dakahlia with 0.254 BCM. The available water use
population of Sohag is more than 4 million in 2012 (Table 2). The change in the governorate of Beheira, Gharbia, Qena and Alexandria
water use of governorate Giza is 4.418 BCM with Orange color due is under 0.2 BCM with the biggest red color circle in Fig. 5 d). The
to the high population with 7 million and a lot of agricultural land. governorates in the secondary orange color circle with the available
The available water use of governorate Monufia, Gharbia and water use change from 0.05 to 0.2 BCM are Monufia, Qalyubia,
Alexandria are 2.315, 2.810 and 2.854 BCM with the middle class Sharqia, Kafr el-Sheikh, Fayoum, Giza, Al-Miny a, Aswan, Asyu t, Beni
level even though the population of those governorates is more Suef and Sohag.The available water use change is increased in the
than 3.5 million. The water use of ASW (Aswan) is 0.837BCM with governorate of Red Sea with 0.022BCM with green color in Fig. 5 d).
dark green color. The well-developed delta region with better water Fig. 6 present the satellite image of the Nile delta region of 1984
facilities attracted immigrants, unlike other regions, including the and 2012 from Google Earth. Fig. 6 shows that the urbanization
upper governorates. Regional water use increased along the Nile extension in the Delta region and Qina  was relatively higher than
River from upstream to downstream while upstream governorates other regions suggesting the vulnerability of these regions to water
were geographically closed to the water resources of Lake Nassar. stress. In Fig. 6, we found most of the green area and population is
The calculation method of the water use in Fig. 5 c) was the same located in the delta of the Nile River which is due to the irrigation
as the water use in Fig. 5 b). According to Abdel-Shafy et al. (2013), manmade canals in the delta area. Through this image between
the available water use per capita in 2025 was projected to be 1984 and 2012, it is found that the green land has been expanded
500 m3 in Fig. 5 c). The projection of population in 2025 of every very much in the close area of Alexandria, Beheira, Cairo and Giza.
governorate was simulated based on the past four censuses (Fig. 5
c)). Fig. 5 c) shows that Cairo, Al-Jızah, and Ash-Sharqıyah followed
by Ad-Daqahıyah ranked at the top for water use. In other words, 5. Future challenges for sustainable water management
except for other social-economic factors, the Lower Nile tended to
need more water resources. The available water use of governorate Water resources crises in the future will be driven by decreasing
Cairo in 2025 has a significant decrease trend with 4.985 BCM natural resources, increasing demands from riparian countries, and
compared with that in 2012. The available water use of governorate increasing demand from the Nile Delta Region. Available water
Qalyubia in 2025 also has decreased from 3.009 BCM to 2.942 BCM resources are expected to drop from 53 to 50 BCM while the pop-
ulation will rise by about 20 million during 2012e2025. Current
 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154 7

Fig. 4. Spatial population density at governorates in 1986 (a) and 2012 (b).

efforts are underway to address declining water resources with Renaissance Dam with a reservoir of approximately 60 BCM.
water shortages of the last several decades in mind. Egypt is Though Egypt retains the water allocation from the colonial period,
actively exploring additional water resources, such as investigating the construction of this large-scale dam in the upper stream will
deep and shallow groundwater and desalination in coastal areas to escalate water stress in Egypt. Shifting water rights in the upper
ensure available water resources. The potential water resources are Nile remain the largest uncertainty in the rapidly growing region.
limited, and population growth and water rights issues will only Shamik et al. (2015) concluded that tension between Egypt and
increase competition for water. Ethiopia is obvious and complex and that basin management must
In 2009, Ethiopia re-surveyed the site of the Grand Ethiopian be conducted under a wider basin-level agenda, given the natural
8 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154

Fig. 5. Map of governorates of Egypt a) and available water use map (Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)) in 2012 b) and 2025 c) as well as d) the available water use change between 2012
and 2025.

characteristics of the region and the dominant social conflicts and sustainable management, all of which are future challenges.
lower Nile pollution problems. In 2015, after years of negotiation, Past water development focused on water distribution system
the first deal was signed between Egypt and Ethiopia to protect construction, which along with treatment are well established in
Egyptian water allocation, although water allocation remains un- the Delta region, far above the world average water coverage rates.
clear and whole basin management is far from a settled issue. At the same time, land reclamation, agricultural and economic
Egypt is also facing domestic water stress, especially in the Nile development are leading to larger water demand. The rapid
Delta region. Agricultural water represented 86% of Egypt’s water development in the Delta region deteriorates natural water re-
demand in 2005. Ambitious land reclamation currently in-process sources systems, so that pollution and salinization are typically
will undoubtedly increase agricultural water demands. Modern severe. Many of the water resources projects were implemented by
agriculture applies mechanical raised-bed farming and irrigation several sectors in the administrative system, such as the Irrigation
technology that could improve water efficiency. In practice, 625 m3 Improvement Project. Consequently, coordination of policies from
of water per feddan (1 feddan equals to is 0.42 ha) are saved numerous sectors is necessary for sustainable water resources
annually during the wheat season in Sharqiya province. The MWRI management.
conducted the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Manage- Year 2017 is for implementing the past national water resources
ment Project from 2003 to 2017 aiming to improve service delivery, plan. The measures adopted in the current national water resources
irrigation efficiency and management. The IEG Review Team (2017) plan have not addressed concerns in riparian countries. The prin-
concluded that though the project reached most of its objectives, ciple concept of IWRM will remain in subsequent water plans.
the cost of improving water efficiency was underestimated, by 10% Additionally, the impact of climate change on water resources and
per feddan for branch canal or tertiary conveyance systems and by the impact of those changes on water rights at the basin level are
17% per feddan for sub-surface drainage systems. Free irrigation necessary to be addressed in future planning. This assessment
water, higher cost of infrastructure maintenance and lack of in- suggests several important areas for future water resources man-
centives to decrease water consumption for farmers impede agement. First, a strong national government is essential, as it leads
 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154 9

Table 2
Available water use amount of each Egyptian governorates in 2012 and 2025 as well as the available water use change between 2012 and 2025.

NO. Name of Governorate Abbr. Water Use 2012 BCM Water Use 2025 BCM Water Use Change(2025e2012) BCM

1 Al-Baḥr al-Aḥmar [Red Sea] BAH 0.203 0.225 0.022

2 Al-Buḥayrah [Beheira] BHR 3.372 3.149 0.223
3 Ad-Daqahıyah [Dakahlia] DQH 3.519 3.265 0.254
4 Al-Gharbıyah [Gharbia] GHB 2.810 2.591 0.219
5 Al-Minu  fıyah [Monufia] MNF 2.315 2.168 0.147
6 Al-Qalyu  byah [Qalyubia] QLY 3.009 2.942 0.068
7 Al-Isma ’ılıyah [Ismaïlia] ISM 0.682 0.671 0.010
8 Ash-Sharqıyah [Sharqia] SQY 3.804 3.634 0.170
9 Dumy aṭ [Damietta] DMY 0.785 0.736 0.049
10 Kafr ash-Shaykh [Kafr el-Sheikh] KSH 1.861 1.737 0.124
11 Al-Fayyu  m [Fayoum] FYM 1.824 1.756 0.068
12 Al-Jızah [Giza] JIZ 4.418 4.332 0.085
13 Al-Miny a MNY 2.976 2.845 0.131
14 Asw an ASW 0.837 0.787 0.051
15 Asyu t ASY 2.461 2.342 0.119
16 Banı Suwayf [Beni Suef] BSW 1.644 1.575 0.069
17 Qin a [Qena] QNA 1.773 1.571 0.202
18 Sawha j [Sohag] SWJ 2.666 2.526 0.140
19 Al-Iskandarıyah [Alexandria] ISK 2.854 2.647 0.207
20 Al-Qa hirah [Cairo] QAH 5.546 4.985 0.562
21  r Sa’ıd [Port Said]
Bu BSD 0.398 0.370 0.028
Others 3.614 3.316 0.298
Total 53.371 50.169

Fig. 6. Expansion of Nile Delta region from 1984 to 2012 (Image source: Satellite Image from Google Earth).

policy development around water resource management. Second, increased investment in hydraulic research is necessary to ensure
water resources management should be carried out in parallel the novelty, practicality and scientific rigor of research topics
between national and local level implementation. This encourages related to water use efficiency and sustainable water resource
local stakeholders to engage in water resource management, and to management. Second, governance must be improved to lead ac-
provide more suitable suggestions and sustainable improvements. tivities on water use efficiency and sustainable water resources
Third, more storage is essential to retain flood-season water for use management, including (a) providing leadership for stakeholders
in farmland irrigation in the upper stream after the Aswan Dam. In on water resource conditions and approaches to reducing water
addition, numerous ideas have potential to assist the realization of waste; (b) promoting water use efficiency through strict control of
national water sustainability. Covering large open canals on the fertilizer and pesticide use to reduce water pollution and realize
delta side can stop high evaporation of irrigation water during the water recycling and reuse, and developing precise water demand
hot season. Tree planting along the Nile can change the local tables for relevant crops to carry out the precision irrigation ac-
climate and may increase local rainfall. Water resources planning cording to crop growth cycle; (c) promoting crop selection to move
and management is an ongoing activity for every country and re- agriculture toward reduced water demand. Transboundary water
gion e Egypt is no exception and the authors hope that this his- resource management requires rational allocation of water be-
torical assessment provides a contribution to an understanding of tween participating countries. Contemporary water resources
the past and some suggestions for sustainably managing water management requires updated and close collaboration between
resources in the future. stakeholder countries to adapt to water shortages due to increasing
There are some observations yield suggestions for water use water demand and concurrent supply challenges. The combined
efficiency and sustainable water resources management. First, stresses of population growth, climate change, and water pollution
10 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154

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