NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY

ISLAMABAD

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan and

its Impacts on Regional Security

Submitted By: Muneeb Khaliq Alvi

Introduction to International Security (IR-210)

Submitted To: Dr. Khurram Iqbal

Due date: 19-05-2019

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Table of Contents
 Abstract:-...............................................................................................3

 Introduction:-........................................................................................ 3
 Historical background:-..........................................................................3
 What’s different now in the withdrawal of US troops??.........................4
 Points of conflict between US & Taliban:-..............................................4
 Current situation in Afghanistan:-..........................................................5
 Theoretical framework:-........................................................................5
 Impacts on regional security:-................................................................6
 Pakistan:-.............................................................................................. 6
 India:-.................................................................................................... 7
 Iran:-..................................................................................................... 7
 Central Asian Republics:-.......................................................................8
 China:-...................................................................................................8
 Russia:-..................................................................................................9
 Conclusion:-...........................................................................................9
 References:-.......................................................................................... 9

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Abstract:-
Withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan would definitely would help
afghan government to establish a proper government but at the same time it would
have serious implications for the whole region. Afghanistan will face severe issues
related to economy, infrastructure and institute building. Moreover the region
surrounding Afghanistan is facing terrorism and if US troops withdraw from Afghanistan
it will cause a boom in terrorism in the region as there would be no one to counter
these terrorist organizations. Moreover the organizations like IMU and ETIM will cause
severe challenges to the stable countries like China etc. ISIS is also a great threat for
Russia in case of US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In the longer run US withdrawal
would be drastic for the regional security if US withdraws with the necessary
precautions for the security of the region.

Introduction:-
In this research paper we will discuss the security impacts upon the region if USA &
NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan in near future. It will be the major discourse of
this research paper to discuss the major security issues that are most likely to rise upon
US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Moreover we will discuss that how instability in
Afghanistan would like to cause instability in whole region and vice versa. The basic aim
of this research is to understand the regional security complex in this region that
instability in one state will cause the instability in all the regional states. We will discuss
the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in historical perspective too that how this issue was
being tackled in past? We will also discuss the most likely form of government that is
gonna emerge after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Role of terrorist organizations
and ethnic groups in Afghanistan would also be of prime concern.

Historical background:-
Withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan is not a new process and it has
been in discussion since last many years. Even there were few tries from US government
to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan but US could not be successful in its attempts
due to different reasons. In his drawdown speech regarding withdrawal from
Afghanistan Obama mentioned that Al-Qaida is totally broken down and there is no
hope for Talibans to sustain in the region and in coming few months we will partially
withdraw from Afghanistan. But later times showed that it was not in the manner as it
was considered by Obama administration. During the NATO Chicago Summit of 2012

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there was many agendas to discuss and one of these agendas was to discuss the
withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. Obama’s administration was of the view
that the issue of Afghanistan would be resolved till 2014 but the French President
declared that he is going to call back all French troops back from Afghanistan till the end
of 2012. In 2014 green-on-blue attacks started by the Talibans upon NATO forces or the
allies of NATO. It created a rift between NATO forces and Talibans and withdrawal of
forces again could not be possible.

What’s different now in the withdrawal of US troops??

In the past there were many steps taken by different authorities to resolve the conflict
in Afghanistan and withdrawal of US troops but it was of no fruits but now the struggle
for the end of war would be possible in near future. Because for the first time from last
18 years the Talibans and Local Jirgas are directly involved in peace talks by higher
authorities. Moreover one can see the shift in the policies of Talibans too. Talibans were
much reluctant in the past on the issue of Shariah System in Afghanistan but in recent
times it was bit different as Talibans showed bit leniency in their policies. Talibans are
ready to provide women rights in Afghanistan and women education would also be
allowed in the state. Talibans are also agree on the point that they would play their role
in war against terrorism that is totally to the contradictory to the old policies of
Talibans. Moreover the role of leadership in the face of Donald Trump would also be
important as he is fully willing to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan. One thing that
is totally different is the role of Russia and china as they both are the part of the current
peace talks that are going on. Involvement of these major players would change the
dimensions of this issue and the withdrawal would be more smoother than ever.

Points of conflict between US & Taliban:-

Few points were there that were causing rift between US and afghan Taliban upon the
issue of peace talks. US has requested the Talibans to stop the war till the end of peace
talks between both but the talibans were of the opinion that war will not be stopped till
the end of US influence in the region as they pointed it as the war will continue until the
withdrawal of last US army personal in Afghanistan. Secondly Afghan talibans rejected
the offer of participation of current government of Afghanistan in the peace talks. As
talibans are of the view that this government is the puppet government of US so we can
not accept them as a sovereign government. Moreover the talibans claimed that there
would be no involvement of US in Afghanistan after its withdrawal from the country.

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Current situation in Afghanistan:-
"If they withdraw from Afghanistan it will not have a security impact because in the last
4 1/2 years the Afghans have been in full control," Ghani's spokesman, Haroon
Chakhansuri, said via social media. This statement shows that Afghanistan has proper
institutes and they have proper set up that would be continued after the withdrawal of
US troops from Afghanistan but the reality is totally different. Not only security but
many other issues also would be very difficult to tackle for afghan government.
Currently most of the budget of Afghanistan comes from the fundings given by EU, UN,
USA and few other regional powers. In case of US withdrawal from Afghanistan it would
have to be bear completely by Afghan government itself and it would not be an easy
task for a country has remained part of wars from last half century. Moreover there are
chances to the upheaval of a civil war as we have seen in history as there are many
clashes between the ethnic groups of Afghanistan. “A gradual descent into a civil war is
likely as various regional stakeholders try to reshape the battlefield in accordance with
their own strategic priorities counting on American forces to eventually leave,” Harsh
Pant, distinguished fellow at Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation, wrote in a
note this week.In case of such civil war there could be a huge migration from
Afghanistan to the neighboring countries. As after the withdrawal there are chances
that there would be no central government in Afghanistan till elections so it would
cause political instability in the country.

"By acceding to this Taliban demand (for talks without the Afghan government), we
have ourselves delegitimized the government we claim to support," Crocker wrote. "It
was clear that by going to the table we were surrendering; we were just negotiating the
terms of our surrender. The Taliban will offer any number of commitments, knowing
that when we are gone and the Taliban is back, we will have no means of enforcing any
of them." As this statement has clear depiction of the dual play of US government and
iilogical legitimacy of current afghan government. If talibans are not ready to accept the
current government of Afghanistan then in future there would be clash upon the
processing of government or power transfer in the country and it would be a very hectic
process for US as well as the people of Afghanistan.

Theoretical framework:-
The theory that would be applied in this research paper would be Regional Security
Complex Theory by Bary Buzan. According to this theory;

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“A regional security complex has been defined as a group of states whose primary
security concerns link together sufficiently closely that their national securities cannot
realistically be considered apart from one another”

So according to this theory the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan would affect
the security conditions of all the states in its neighborhood. The security of one state
would be totally dependent on other states too. So the issues of security in the
Afghanistan would cause few drastic impacts upon all the cities of region.

Impacts on regional security:-

As Afghanistan is a link between two regions so the role of Afghanistan would be very
crucial in the stability of these both regions. The instability in Afghanistan will directly
affect all the other countries. As currently Talibans, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan,
ISIS etc are busy in fighting with these forces. After the withdrawal of US troops from
Afghanistan there would be space for these terrorist organizations and they will move
out and it will cause direct negative impact upon the security of other neighboring
states of the region. As the history of Afghanistan shows that there is always a rift
between different ethnicities of Afghanistan and the period of relative peace is relatively
short in Afghanistan. So these conditions would definitely help in the boom of terrorism
in the region. As the region is already facing different terrorist challenges from last
almost two decades so it would be very difficult for these states to prevent from these
security threats that would cause severe threat to all the states of the region.

As the withdrawal of US is concerning with the security of the whole region so we

should continue with the individual states in the region neighboring Afghanistan. Some
of these states are listed below;

Pakistan:-
The state that would be most affected after the withdrawal of US forces would be
Pakistan. As Pakistan is facing currently a huge threat of terrorism and fighting with
terrorism from last two decades. Pakistan has lost billions of dollars in this war and
currently facing many economic and infrastructural issues. Currently TTP and few other
sections are also playing its role in terrorism in Pakistan. In case of US withdrawal from
Afghanistan these terrorist that are working in Afghanistan would also help in terrorism
promotion in Pakistan. There are chances that Pakistan will become the hub of terrorism
again. And such situation would be very devastative for Pakistan. Moreover if we see in
history then it’s very clear that Afghanistan has never accepted the Durand Line as its

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international border with Pakistan. And Pakistan will also face a threat on its western
border too. Moreover in past Afghanistan has suppoted ethnic devision in Pakistan like
insurgencies in Balochistan and KPK. Currently Pakistan is having an ethnic group in the
form of PTM that is asking for the independence of areas of KPK province. This would be
inflamed if US troops withdraws from Afghanistan. Moreover if US withdraws from
Afghanistan then there would be a political instability in Afghanistan and it can cause a
civil war in Afghanistan. In case of civil war the most suitable country for the migration
of afghans would be Pakistan. And Pakistan is currently having almost 50,00,000 afghan
emigrants that are also a source of unrest for Pakistan as Pakistan is the war tore
country.

India:-
India is also very important state in the region. And it would be very difficult to disagree
with the importance of India in the region. India is also facing terrorism in the country
and in case of US withdrawal from Afghanistan will cause boom of terrorism in India. As
former DGP of Jammu and Kashmir K. Rajendra Kumar has said that the US withdrawing
troops from Afghanistan could affect the Valley as terrorist outfits may feel empowered.
In case of US withdrawal the most attractive issue or area for terrorist in Afghanistan
would be Kashmir. And this will cause hinderence in the progress of Indian government
in Kashmir. Moreover in the last few years India has invested millions of dollars in the
infrastructure of Afghanistan. In the previous years Afghanistan has a government that
is in favour of Afghanistan and in case of US withdrawal from Afghanistan the new
government will be most probably anti-Indian in case of Talibans inculcation in the
government of Afghanistan. Moreover as currently India has a upper head in the
strategic location but in case of US withdrawal from Afghanistan and if Talibans comes
to power it will change all the dimensions in totally opposite dimensions and there
would be strategic upheaval for Pakistan in case of Talbans regime in future.

Iran:-
Iran has started Chah-Bahar project with the help of India and Afghanistan. This alliance
is based upon mutual benefits by all these states. In case of US withdrawal China will try
its best to maintain good relations with Afghanistan and there are chances that
Afghanistan would be a part of BRI project in future. It will cause economic issues for
Iran. Again extremism would be a major issue for Iran too. Iran is a Shiyet state while
Afghanistan is a Sunni state and there are chances in case of US withdrawal from
Afghanistan both countries would have bitter relations due to this sectarian division.

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And due to these this sectarian division in both states there would be rift in both
countries and it will be guided by terrorist groups working in these both states. On the
other hand after soviet attack upon Afghanistan many afghans moved to Iran and it is
thought that in case of any kind of political instability in Afghanistan people will again
move towards Iran and it would be very difficult for Iran to counter these issues.

Central Asian Republics:-

Central Asian Republics has direct borders with Afghanistan and in case of any kind of
change in Afghanistan will directly have impact upon these countries. That’s why these
states are most anxious about the aftermaths of US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Like
in the previous sessions of United Nations in February Abdul Aziz the foreign minister of
Uzbekistan and Erlan the foreign minister of Kazakhstan were of the opinion that US
should withdraw from Afghanistan but before withdrawal they should guarantee the
regional security. As the states of Central Asia are already facing severe issues related to
terrorism, security, energy etc so it would be very difficult for these states to coup up
with any kind of new threat. Currently the these countries are facing the presence of Al-
Qaeda, ISIS, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and many other terrorist organizations in
their states and in case of US withdrawal from Afghanistan these outfits would be
strengthened in the region. Moreover the trade of opium would also be boosted after
US withdrawal as there would be no check upon it. And in case of such trade the most
effected states or region would be Central Asia due to easy access and better market. So
Central Asian republics are of the opinion that US should take proper measures to
ensure the stability of the region.

China:-
China is playing currently a major role in US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In recent
years china has invested millions of dollars in Afghanistan and currently Afghanistan is
not a part of BRI project but China will try to have Afghanistan in this project because of
its geography in the region. As now China has to take long route to connect its BRI with
Central Asian Republics but with the inclusion of Afghanistan in the project it would help
to manage a short route in the connection between the region. Independence of
Afghanistan from other powers will help China in many ways. China has started its gas
pipelines from Wakhan Corridor and it would help to gain maximum gains in terms of
economy. Like all countries China is also considering the threat of refugee crisis in case
of any civil war in Afghanistan. And a volatile Afghanistan would help in the projection of
terrorist attacks in China. Currently East Turkistan Islamic Movement is playing its role

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for the independence of Uighur region and manage to attack in China. In case of US
withdrawal from Afghanistan will also encourage to collaborate Afghan terrorists with
ETIM. “They are still in Afghanistan. They are still posing a threat to the national security
of Xinjiang, of China. What they want is to establish a separate state, to separate
Xinjiang out of China. This is totally unacceptable to China. So, we will work with the
Afghan government to try to eliminate this group,” Lijian pledged. This shows the fears
Chinese has in their minds regarding US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Russia:-
Russia has many interests in US withdrawal from Afghanistan and it is the main player
who wants to end the war in Afghanistan for its own gains. As presence of US in the
region is something that is hindering in the determination of hegemonic role of Russia in
the region and in case of US withdrawal from the region Russia would be the only sole
power in the region and it would help Russia to mold the politics of the region as it
wants. Secondly Russia has many economic gains too in case of US withdrawal from
Afghanistan. Russia is currently providing its security umbrella to the Central Asian
Republics like Uzbekistan and in return enjoys many economic gains. Similarly Russia has
offered same security assistance to the afghan government in future in case of US
withdrawal from Afghanistan. But on the other hand the most devastating thing for
Russia is the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan. Because Russia would be on hit list of these
militants of ISIS after US withdrawal. But Russia is sure that they would control any kind
of terrorist plans against its sovereignty by any means.

Conclusion:-
Withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan would be a threat for all the regional states.
But the withdrawal of US is also important as it would help to ensure stability in the
region in longer run. But before withdrawal US should take proper measures that should
help to maintain the security of the region. Moreover the assistance should be provided
by all the regional and international powers particularly by US to the new government of
Afghanistan in every step of structuring the state of Afghanistan in proper way.
Otherwise the world would have to face another boom of terrorism in the region.

References:-
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https://timesofislamabad.com/21-Dec-2018/us-troops-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-how-would-it-
impact-pakistan

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/28/donald-trumps-us-troop-withdrawals-in-afghanistan-impact-
india.html

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https://www.dawn.com/news/1458794

https://www.rferl.org/a/trump-considers-troop-cuts-afghanistan-wsj-reuters/29668426.html

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