Nielsen Grocery Report 2012
Nielsen Grocery Report 2012
Vietnam 2012
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
AGENDA
Market Channels Shoppers
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
MARKET
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
A very tough 2012 with only slightly positive signs appearing in Q312, but still below expectations for the year.
GOVERNMENT PLAN 2012
GDP 66.5%
CPI 10%
ACTUAL Q312
GDP 4.7%
CPI 7.%
CPI YOY
Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
which is still fragile under pressure from the recent upward trend in fuel and utilities.
14%
Mogas 92 VND/litre
50%
5%
6%
Gas VND/12kg tank
Growth rate
01/09/12 vs 01/01/12
5
Source: xangdau.net & http://www.petrolimex.com.vn/
Service continues to drive the growth of the economy, particularly being led by the Trade sector.
LABOUR STRUCTURE 51.6 mil employees GDP STRUCTURE 1,252,577 bil.VND
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
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Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office
Viet Nam retail drops out of top 30 countries of retail attractiveness by A.T Kearney. Inflation, high real estate price & interest and business procedure are still big concerns.
VIET NAM
Rank
1 6 14 23
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Source: A.T. Kearney
However, retail sector is still attractive to foreign investors despite total FDI decreases.
Value growth rate vs. LY
-11%
Total FDI 01/01/12-20/08/12
7% 5%
Manufacturing& Processing
47%
01/01/11-20/08/11
Real estate
Other areas
9
Source: Foreign Investment Agency Ministry of planning and investment
MARKET
After sky rocketing inflation in 2011, how is Vietnam FMCG market doing?
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
FMCG volume growth trend resumes in light of cooling CPI though consumers are still concerned.
Consumer confidence is still below 100 FMCG volume sales growth bounces back strongest for Beverage & Milk-base
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Source: Vietnam GSO and Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
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Source: Nielsen Growth reporter Q3, 2012
23% 11%
Value Volume
28 % 15 %
Personal Care
18% 4%
21% 6%
Cigarette
18% 7%
19% 3%
Household Care
15% -1 %
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Source: Nielsen Retail Audit
Most categories pose volume growth of 5-10% with an exception to beverages, Baby Diaper and RTDM.
(YTD Jun12 vs. YA)
Half categories have medium volume growth of 5-10%; while 15% show higher growth of >10% Price hike around 10% for most categories except for dishwashing liquid, gum, snack, milk powder, shampoo and biscuit whose price hike >15%
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Source: Nielsen Retail Audit
The biggest categories are Beer, Cigarette, Milk and Beverage which benefit the dominant positions of the players in such fields.
TOP 10 MANUFACTURERS IN FMCG
6 Cities TT - Value % Share | Period Ending SEP12 | Share of Sum(PROD) Top 10 Val for MAT TY | Total Mkt
6 Cities TT - V
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Source: Nielsen Retail Audit
Source: ACNielsen | Retail Index (<< Viet Nam >> ), data to SEP12
Manufacturers more reluctant to introduce new brands and most of new brand launches are in Value pricing segment.
New of new brands declines starting from early 2011
Increasing number of new launches in Value segment
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Source: Nielsen Retail Audit
Interestingly, Premium segment is either stable or increasing its share across categories.
50 45 40 35
30
25
20
15 10
5
Sauce Fem_Care Cigarette Bouillon-Msg Milk Powder Baby Diaper Fruit Juice Soft Drink Instant Noodle Toothbrush Snack Personal Wash Beer Energy Drink Dishwash Liquid Tissue Shampoo Biscuits & Pie RTD Tea Gums Facial Care HH Cleansers Deodorants Facial Tissue Body Lotion Toothpaste Mouth Wash Fabric Softener Insect_Aerosol Hair Conditioner Condensed Milk Packaged Water Baby Cereal Laundry Detergent RTD Milk Cooking Oil Insect_Coil
YTDLY YTDTY
Price segmentation based on price index at 6 Cities, YTDJul11 [>120 Premium] [100-120 HiMid] [80-100 LowMid] [<80 Low] Source: Nielsen Retail Audit
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Lower price gap between Premium and Mainstream contributes to the growth of Premium.
Consumers tend to trade up with reduction in price gap of Premium and Mainstream products. Innovation is a contributor too
-4.0%
Biscuits
2.6%
-3.0%
CSD
3.4%
-3.0%
Shampoo
6.5%
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Source: Pricing Analytics Study, Vietnam 2011
CHANNELS
The Now
The Future
How fast is modern trade growing? How is traditional trade trying to compete with modern trade? What are modern trade retailers doing to attract and retain consumers?
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Traditional Trade dominates in SEA but Modern Retailing is expanding its foot print. Vietnam has a big room to grow in terms of MT store density.
RETAIL STORE DENSITY ANALYSIS
(Number of stores per million population)
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 6,000 14,000
295
304 209
4,000
162
136
9 6 38 65
2,000 -
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
India
Singapore
85
94
96
89
57
63
49
22
46
44
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Indonesia
Taiwan
Korea
Malaysia
China
HK
Traditional trade is still the dominant channel in Vietnam while Modern trade speeds up opening store especially in Hanoi.
TRADITIONAL TRADE
Value sales Contribution
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 30 Cities 4 Cities Hanoi HCM 2009 2010 2011
MODERN TRADE
943
Modern trade outlets (+25% vs 2010)
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Ministry of Industry and Trade cooperate with University of Economics to organize: Sales skill training for small traders in wet markets. Wet market management skill training for the markets management boards
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Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade Decision 012/2007/Q-BCT
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
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1/1-31/9/2012:
4 32
Convenience Store
12+
new stores open each month
23
27 59 1 1 13 44
Minimart
20 19 17 14 14 11
85
5
46
Supermarket Supermarket
6
B& 8B
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
2 3 5
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Supermarkets implement a wide variety of programs to build loyalty and attract consumers.
Preference from loyalty card
Membership Card, VIP Card With special offers: Stored up points, special promotion prices On-going promotions, themed to match holidays and specific categories or special customers
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
CHANNELS
The Now
The Future
What lessons will Vietnamese retailers learn from other Asian countries? What will be the channel mix in the coming years?
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Retailers continue to expand their store base across AP with total number of stores increasing by over 25,000. Convenience stores have the fastest growth rate.
Modern Trade Store No. by Format in Asia-Pacific
(% annual growth)
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Source: Nielsen Retail and Shopper Trend Asia Pacific 2012
Convenience in Thailand: Innovation through Non-FMCG range has also attracted the shoppers.
Available in 2011
CVS
Home Appliances
Bakery
Smoothies
Payment Service
Direct Marketing
Media Books & Magazines
Seasonal Products
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Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends 2012
Minimarts in Indonesia: Thematic promotions and loyalty cards have helped the Mini-Marts succeed apart from the huge store base (+10,000 stores).
New Year
Thematic promotions
Valentines Day Mothers Day Unilever Fair Fonterra Fair Valentines
School Holiday
Homecare Fair
Supplier Fairs
Olay Promotion Bi weekly Shopping Calendar Unilever Fair Weekend Promotion
Weekly Promotions
Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends 2012
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Present
Conservative & Value Oriented Shopper
Wet Markets
All shoppers bought daily food in Wet Markets
Super Markets
Wet market is thought to be swept out for its dirty and untidy image. Supermarket increase its network, thus increases in the frequency
Wholesalers
Grocery Stores
Grocery Stores
Convenien ce Stores Metro
Super Markets
Very few & expensive visit once per year for curiosity
Grocery Stores
Metro
BY (YEAR)
2012 2015 2012 2013 2012 2012 2013 2016
Shop & Go
Family Mart Ministop
100
+ 27 43 + 30
2012
2012 2012
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
SHOPPERS
Belt Buckling
Connected Consumers
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Concerns
Discretionary spending
*: vs. YA | vs. APAC average
66%
Saving
THE ECONOMY (19%)
JOB SECURITY (18%) INCREASING UTILITY BILL (12%)
HEALTH (8%) INCREASING
32%
Holiday
| vs. 60%*
| vs. 37%*
29%
New technologies
FOOD PRICE
(7%)
| vs. 18%*
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index Q22012 Vietnam
28%
Out of home entertai nment
| vs. 35%*
| vs. 34%*
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Consumers are tightening their belts. The recessionary mindset shifts consumer thinking from Nice to Have to
Need to Have
superfluous
temptation
Hardship continues, consumers reduce shopping frequency and are much impacted by price.
TOP 4 IMPACTS ON GROCERY PURCHASE CHOICE SHOPPING FREQUENCY
39% 64% 59% 36% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2011
Base: All Supermarket shoppers (n = 1500)
Weekly
Every 2 weeks
Every month
Less often
2012
Compared with a year ago, how much impact has each of the following had on your choice of Grocery Purchases in the last 12 months?
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
To adapt, consumer are having more economic reactions which vary a lot (i.e. consuming same but larger packs, downgrading as well).
CONSUMER REACTION TO PRICE INCREASE %
Buy more on Promotion
66
Change in Volume of consumption More amount Change in Pack size purchased Big pack Same pack Small pack Change in Brand purchased Cheaper brand Same brand Expensive brand
41 37
Buy cheaper brands Change shopping channels to save money Buy more of smaller pack sizes Buy more of Private Label brands
22
37
36
20
Hair Con Hair Con Hair Con Bouillon Bouillon Fab Soft Fab Soft Shampoo Shampoo Fab Soft Laundry Laundry Laundry Shampoo Bouillon
How do you change your shopping habits to adapt to the price increases?
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Source: Consumer Omnibus Vietnam, Sept 2011Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
nesting
Cocooning
In both products and Entertainment!
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Value Volume
Off vs. On
2011: 713,416 vs. 522,394 stores
Meal Maker
285% 318%
2.6% vs. 2.1%
Beer can
47 % 40 %
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Source: Nielsen Retail Audit
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
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Source: YouTube.com/user/ShopRiteStores
In the current climate, consumers and shoppers are re-appraising their store, brand and
Value-seeking
Consumer Value Price Consumer Value = Benefits/Price
price positioning
simple and innovative Promotions new value added initiatives
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Consumers also seek value through up-trading to more premium products and or buying big packs or pouch to save money.
Q u ic kR e t r ie v a ls
Q u ic kR e t r ie v a ls
Q u ic kR e t r ie v a ls
Q u ic kR e t r ie v a ls
6 C it ie s E n h V o lu m e % S h a r e |P e r io dE n d in g F E B 1 2 |S h a r e o f T o ta lC a te g o r y 6 C it ie s E n h V o lu m e % S h a r e | P e r io dE n d in g F E B 1 2 |h S h a r e o f T o ta lC a te g o r y 6C it ie sE n h- V o lu m e% S h a r e| P e r io dE n d in g F E B 1 2 | S h a r e o fT o ta l C a te g o r y 6 C it ie s E n V o lu m e % S h a r e | P e r io dE n d in gF E B 1 2| S h a r eo fT o ta lC a te g o r y
S o u r c : A C N ie ls e n |R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m > > ) ,e d a ta to F E B 1 2 S o u r c e :A C N ie ls e n| R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m > > ) , d ta to F E B 1 S o u r c e :a A C N ie ls e n |2 R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m > > ) ,e d a ta to F E B 1 2 S o u r c : A C N ie ls e n |R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m > >) ,d a tatoF E B 1 2
Sources: RA, Price Tier market: 6 Cities TT Enh, Pack size market: 36 Cities Enh TT + Rural Data ended Mar12
Shampoo Fabclean Small Pack <400ml <3kg Big Pack >= 400ml >=3kg
S o u r c e :a A C N ie ls e n |2 R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a S m o u > r c > e ) :,A d C a ta N ie to ls M e n A | R R 1 e 2 ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m S > o > u r ) c , e d :a A ta C N to ie F ls E e B n 1 | 2 R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m > >) ,d a tato S o u r c e :A C N ie ls e n| R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m > > ) , d ta to M A R 1
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S o u r c e :A C N ie ls e n|R e t a il I n d e x( < <V ie tN a m > >) ,d a tat oJ A N 1 2
S o u r c e :A C N ie ls e n| R e ta il In d e x( < <V ie tN a m > >) ,d a tatoF E B 1 2
Innovation themes
Ecobags
Organic products
Milk Beverage
Laundry Liquid
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
SHOPPERS
Belt Buckling
Connected Consumers
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Connected
**End of 2012:
1 smartphone
2% to 5%
2015: Mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common web access
Speed of action
Offers flexibility
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Grocery report 2012 Image/Vietnam Buzz
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
63% are
more likely to trust consumer opinion posted online**
Thinking about Household Grocery Shopping, which of the following activities have you done in the last month on any online connected device?*
Sources: * Global Trust in advertising Q3 2011 **Nielsen Global Digital Shopping Q1 2012
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Sources: *Nielsen Advanced Analytics Consulting - 2009 **Nielsen Global Ad View Pulse Lite Q1 2012 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Building demand by connecting consumers (with each other and with brand). Collective Buying Power Sharing Experiences
Reviews Recommendations Ratings Referrals
Sharing Ideas
50
50
Shopper
Opportunities
Need to Have
Proximity
Private Label
Cocooning
Value-seeking
Flexibility of offer
Home Entertainment products
Innovation
Price
Buzz
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Connected
E-Promo
Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Thank you!
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Vietnam Grocery report 2012
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.