Melba Grullón Ubiñas

Joint Intelligence Officer Dom. Rep.

(RILO: JIO Caribbean)
WCO, Brussels, May 4-8, 2009
 “The main purpose of
organizing this training
course is to improve
analysis capability of
the RILOs”*

RILOs: WCO
Intelligence is Regional
the ability to learn Intelligence and
about, learn from, Liaison Officers
understand, and
interact with one’s
environment.
* World Customs Organization
This general ability (Intelligence) consists of a number of specific abilities,
which include:

• Adaptability to a new environment or to changes in the current environment

• Capacity for knowledge and the ability to acquire it

• Capacity for reason and abstract thought

• Ability to comprehend relationships

• Ability to evaluate and judge

• Capacity for original and productive thought

Source: http://giftedkids.about.com/od/glossary/g/intelligence.htm
 Intelligence Analysis and Intelligence Cycle

* When we’re tasked with a specific project, as Intelligence Officers, we follow

a five-step process called The Intelligence Cycle*.

This process ensures we do our job correctly.

Let’s take a closer look at each step, where Analysis is a vital part .
* Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html
3.Planning and Direction *

When we are tasked with a specific job, we begin planning

what we’ll do and how.

We move in a specific direction to get the job done,

listing what we know about the issue and what we need to find out.

We discuss ways to gather the necessary intelligence.

Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html
2.Collection *

We collect information overtly (openly) and covertly (secretly).

Examples of “overt” (or open) sources for us:

- Reading foreign newspapers and magazine articles

- Listening to foreign radio
- Watching overseas television broadcasts

Other information sources can be “covert” (or secret):

- Information collected with listening devices and hidden cameras.

- We can even use space-age technology like satellite photography.

(For instance, some analysts could actually view how many

Airplanes are present at a foreign military base by looking at a
picture taken from a satellite in space.)

Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html
 2.Processing *

We take all the information that we have collected and put it into an
intelligence report.

This information could be anything from a translated document to a

description of a satellite photo.

* Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html
 2.Analysis and Production *

During this step, we take a closer look at all the information and
determine how it fits together, while concentrating on answering the
original tasking.

We assess:

what is happening,
why it is happening,
what might occur next, and
how it affects our nation interests.

* Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html
 General Information on Analysis
(What is Analysis)

Analysis is a Analysis is
process of science is
separating a cutting things
whole into its into pieces. Analysis is the process
component of dismantling or
parts. separating into
constituent elements in
Analysis is the order to study the nature,
Analysis is an function, or meaning; the
process of
investigation of result of this process; The
breaking a complex
the component mathematical study of
topic or substance
parts of a whole functions, sequences,
into smaller parts
and their relations series, limits, derivatives
to gain a better
in making up the and integrals; Proof by
understanding of it.
whole deduction from known
truths;
 How do
we know
the
Truth?

The 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking:

3. We prefer stories to statistics

4. We seek to confirm, not to question our
ideas
5. We rarely appreciate the role of chance
and coincidence in shaping events
• We sometimes misperceive the world
around us
• We tend to oversimplify our thinking
• We have faulty memories
“Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it.

Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored

by many.

Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your

religious books.

Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers

and elders.

Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down

for many generations.

But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything
agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one
and all, then accept it and live up to it.” *

* Buddha quotes (Hindu Prince Gautama Siddharta, the founder of Buddhism, 563-483 B.C.)
 Phases of the Intelligence Analysis

resolve
•Problematic Analyze
communicate it

7.Break into small parts Element of Classify Matters

information
Organize Ideas

PATTERN ELEMENT THAT MODIFIES INTERPRETATION COMMON

THE PATTERN AND DIFFERENT ELEMENTS

ANALYZE SYNTHESIZE
The WHOLE
(it is break into (It is to recompose what
(Object of it means a part and that part
analysis) small parts )
added to the others )
• Structure text

EQUATION 7-R

Interpret

Contrast
Formulate

Conclude

Project

Recommend

Advise
 Hypothesis

Explanation
attempt of A hypothesis
the is a guess, or
information an initial
answer to a
problem you
A hypothesis consists haven't
either of a suggested researched yet.
explanation for an
observable Hypothesis is
phenomenon or of a an educated
reasoned proposal a hypothesis guess (you
predicting a possible is a theory you guess the
causal correlation are attempting answer of the
among multiple to prove. question).
phenomena
 Essential Elements of Information
7 “Golden” Questions

Who? With
When?
What?

What?
Where? Why?
How?
 Types of Analysis

A weak analysis will only tell a story or describe the topic.

A good analysis will go beyond a mere description by engaging in several

of the types of analysis listed below, but it will be weak on sociological
analysis, the future orientation & the development of social policy.

An excellent analysis will engage in many of the types of analyses

discussed below and will demonstrate an aggressive sociological analysis
which develops a clear future orientation and offers social policy changes
to address problems associated with the topic.
 Types of Analysis

2.
1.
A Descriptive Analysis
A Narrative Analysis tells a
offers a detailed
story using a lot of relevant &
description through the use
descriptive details; usually
of objective or subjective
organized to tell the story in
language to describe some
sequence.
object (a person, place or
thing; it may be a “social
The thesis is often implied,
object” such as
but, preferably, makes some
discrimination), & in the
specific, clearly articulated
process, give the reader
point about the story being
some dominant impression
told.
(the thesis) of the thing being
described.
 Types of Analysis

3.
A Socio-Historical
Analysis examines
historical events utilizing
social concepts. It 4.
examines history using A Comparative Analysis
social concepts such as the explains how something
industrial revolution, is like or unlike something
urbanization, else. The items compared
democratization, etc., to not need to have a basis of
only describe history, but comparison--that is, they
also to understand it need to be enough alike to
perhaps in a way that not warrant a comparison.
even the people living at the
time understood it.
 Types of Analysis

5. 6.
A SWOT Analysis A "Cause & Effect" Analysis
addresses the strengths, demonstrates how the
weaknesses, occurrence of one event
correlates w/ a particular
opportunities, & threats to
outcome. While there are
the topic. This many types of cause & effect
comprehensive type of relationships, for most
analysis addresses a topic assignments in the social
w/ the aim of taking action in sciences, the focus should be
relation to the topic. If an on social causes and social
analysis demonstrates effects. It is also reasonable to
particular strengths & examine how non-social (e.g.
physical, biological,
weakness, then particular
psychological, etc.) causes also
opportunities & threats have social effects.
(actions) are implied.
 Types of Analysis

7.
A Statistical Analysis will 8.
generally be used to A Critique assesses the ideas
demonstrate a "cause & of another or a social
effect" relationship (i.e. a phenomenon. Generally,
correlation) or a Comparison. critiques address the strengths &
Statistical Analysis should weakness & take a position on
always assume that the reader the balance of the two. In
does not understand statistics. addressing strengths &
Thus, Statistical Analysis should weaknesses, critiques may
always be accompanied by the address the validity of a cause &
appropriate type of analysis effect relationship, examining
discussed here-in such as a whether the relationship exists as
Comparative Analysis or a assumed by its proponents.
Critiques are frequently given for
"Cause & Effect" Analysis..
private & public social policies.
 Types of Analysis
9.
A Sociological Analysis 10.
utilizes one of the types of An analysis that utilizes a
analysis described here while Future Orientation should, in
utilizing social concepts, relationship to the variables &
processes, theories & one or issues examined, predict the
more sociological future. Many of the types of
paradigms. The writer seeks analyses discussed here lean
to find causes and/or describe toward a discussion w/ a future
or predict effects. It focuses on orientation. In the future
- factors external to the orientation analysis, the
individual such as social researcher uses any of the
conditions in the community or types of analyses discussed
society here, not only to understand the
- the meanings that members of past & the present, but also to
a social organization share predict what will occur in the
- an individual's social location immediate term, the long term
(class, status, gender, ethnicity, and in the distant term.
race, religion, authority position,
etc.).
 Types of Analysis

11.
An analysis that offers a Social
Policy is essentially proposing
an integrated set of solutions
that operate at both the
individual & the social levels. An
analysis may be used as a basis
for assessing the outcomes or
effects in a cause and effect
relation and offering a
recommendation or solution for the
question examined. That is, an
analysis may be used to formulate
a policy that addresses the
problems in relation to the causes
or effects of the sociological
analysis.
 1. Dissemination

In this final step, we give our final written analysis to a policymaker, the
same policymaker who started the cycle.

After reading the final analysis and learning the answer to the original
question, the policymaker may come back with more questions. Then the
whole process starts over again.

* Source: https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/6-12th-grade/who-we-are-what-we-do/the-intelligence-cycle.html
 Strengths of the Analyst

Total Total Skills in Information

Knowledge of Knowledge of handling management
the the geographic Technical
operational environment resources
objective

The analyst is (or

Strategic Use of the
Skills in the must be) an
Alliances with intelligence
interviews of excellent
other resources
sources information
agencies administrator
 Observation Exercise

Observe carefully.

What you see, is not always

what it seems to be
The way you see things is a reflection of
what is inside your mind…
There are 10 alive beings…Can you find them?
LIGHT, DISCERNMENT, LOVE AND PEACE FOR ALL!