Front office budgeting and forecasting involves three key steps: 1) forecasting rooms revenue using historical data on occupancy rates and average daily rates, 2) estimating variable operating expenses, and 3) creating short-term room forecasts based on reservations, events, and historical occupancy trends. Hotel performance is evaluated using key performance indicators like occupancy percentage, average daily rate (ADR), and revenue per available room (RevPAR). Maintaining a RevPAR index above 100% relative to competitors is ideal, as it indicates outperforming the market.
Front office budgeting and forecasting involves three key steps: 1) forecasting rooms revenue using historical data on occupancy rates and average daily rates, 2) estimating variable operating expenses, and 3) creating short-term room forecasts based on reservations, events, and historical occupancy trends. Hotel performance is evaluated using key performance indicators like occupancy percentage, average daily rate (ADR), and revenue per available room (RevPAR). Maintaining a RevPAR index above 100% relative to competitors is ideal, as it indicates outperforming the market.
Front office budgeting and forecasting involves three key steps: 1) forecasting rooms revenue using historical data on occupancy rates and average daily rates, 2) estimating variable operating expenses, and 3) creating short-term room forecasts based on reservations, events, and historical occupancy trends. Hotel performance is evaluated using key performance indicators like occupancy percentage, average daily rate (ADR), and revenue per available room (RevPAR). Maintaining a RevPAR index above 100% relative to competitors is ideal, as it indicates outperforming the market.
Rooms Occupancy Average Available Percentage Daily Rate
Rooms Available = Total Rooms X 365 Days Forecasting Rooms Revenue Example 100 Room Hotel 100 x 365 days = 36,500 Rooms Available
75% Occupancy Percentage .75
$50 Average Daily Rate
36,500 x .75 x $50 = $1,368,750 Room Forecasting Ten-Day Forecast Done by FOM and Reservations Manager
House Count Expected number of guests in the hotel Divided into group and non-group
Three-Day Forecast Updated with current information Identifies changes in staffing needs Forecasting Room Availability The most important short-term planning function
Hotel Occupancy History The past few months and last year at this time
Reservation Trends How far in advance are reservations being made?
Scheduled Events City-wide conventions; sporting events, etc.
Group Profiles Pickup history Forecasting Data No-shows Expected guests who did not arrive.
Walk-ins Guests without reservations.
Overstays Guests who stay beyond their departure date.
Understays Guests who check out before departure date.
Percentage Of No-shows Number of Room No-Shows Number of Room Reservations
Purpose: Helps front office managers decide when (and if) to sell rooms to walk-in.
Percentage Of Walk-ins
Number of Room Walk-Ins Total Number of Room Arrivals
Purpose: Helps front office managers know how many walk-ins to expect. Percentage Of Overstays
Number of Overstay Rooms Number of Expected Check-Outs
Purpose: Alerts front office managers to potential problems when rooms have been reserved for arriving guests.
Percentage Of Understays
Number of Understay Rooms Number of Expected Check-Outs
Purpose: Alerts front office manager to additional room availability.
20% of hotels charge understay guests Rooms Availability Formula Total number of guestrooms - Out of order rooms - Stayovers - Reservations + Reservations x no-show percentage + Understays - Overstays
Number of Rooms Available for Sale Rooms Availability Formula Example 150 Guestrooms - 5 Out of Order - 45 Stayovers - 50 Reservations + 10% No-show + 5 Understays - 20 Overstays
40 Rooms Available for Sale Establishing Room Rates
Marketing Positioning Statement Room rates reflect service expectations to the hotels target markets.
1. Market Condition Approach
2. Rule-of-thumb Approach
3. Hubbart Formula Approach 1. Market Condition Approach
Common sense approach.
Often used, but has many problems.
Base room rates on your competitions rates.
Doesnt take into account new properties and construction costs.
Allows the local market to determine the rate 2. Rule-of-thumb Approach Sets the minimum average room rate at $1 for each $1,000 of construction & furnishing costs per room.
Assumes 70 % occupancy
$125,000 in construction and furnishings - $125 room rate
Doesnt take inflation into account
Doesnt include other hotel services
2. Rule-of-thumb Approach Average per-room cost for hotel development: Segment Per-room cost Budget/Economy $52,800 Midscale w/o $85,600 Midscale with F&B $103,100 Full Service $165,900 Luxury/Resorts $516,300
Hotel & Motel; Jan. 12, 2004 3. Hubbart Formula Approach Bottom-upapproach
Begin with desired profit based upon expected Return on Investment (ROI)
Average Daily Rate Example Rooms Revenue Number of Rooms Sold
$10,000 Rooms Revenue Sold 95 rooms with 5 comps
$10,000 $10,000 = 95 + 5 = 100 $100 Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) Actual Rooms Revenue Number of Available Rooms
or:
Occupancy Percentage x ADR
2001 = $49.36
RevPar Example Actual Rooms Revenue Number of Available Rooms
$10,000 Rooms Revenue 150 room hotel with 25 out of order
$10,000 $10,000 = 150 - 25 125 $80 Revenue per Available Room Example Occupancy Percentage x ADR
80% x $100 = $80
RevPAR Limitations: * Does not include Revenue & Costs from F&B and other outlets
Is RevPAR higher or lower than ADR ? When will they be equal?
RevPAR Index Hotel RevPAR Competitive Set RevPAR
You decide what hotels make up your competitive set of hotels that you compare yourself too.
Get your Comp Set RevPAR figures from the STAR Report or the HRM (HotelRevMax) Report
RevPAR Index - Example Hotel RevPAR Competitive Set RevPAR
Your Hotels RevPAR is $58; Comp Set is $60 $58/$60 = .966 x 100% = 96.6%
Below 100% = Under Performing Hotel 100% = Fair Share Above 100% = Over Performing Hotel
RevPAR Index Missed Revenue Example If your Hotels RevPAR is $58 and your Comp Sets is $60, you are losing $2 per room in potential revenue
Calculate your potential lost revenue per month RevPAR Difference x Number of Rooms x Days in Month Ex. Missed Revenue for 150 room hotel in December $2 x 150 x 31 = $9,300 RevPAR Index
You need to select a realistic Comp Set of hotels
Comparing a luxury hotel to economy hotels inflates your RevPAR Index but doesnt help your revenues
A consistent increase in RevPAR Index is your goal
Ideally, you want a RevPAR Index above 100% and a positive percentage change from month to month