Time-Series and Forecasting
Time-Series and Forecasting
Prepared by
Jagruti Barodia(1904)
Prashant Brahmane(1908)
Forecasting is the art and science of predicting
the future.
Secular trend
Cyclical fluctuation
Seasonal variation
Irregular variation
Secular Trend
Reasons for studying trend
Where,
a = Y- bX b = ∑xy- nXY
∑x2 – nX2
Coding:
Where,
Ŷ= estimate of the dependent variable.
a, b, c =numerical constant.
x = coded values of time variable.
Seasonal variation
It is defined as a repetitive and
predictable movement around the trend
line in a one year or less.