Water Resources Research Institute Eng.

Ahmed Adel
email: [email protected] Saleh email:
Web: www.wrri.org.eg [email protected]
F.B. |
 CONTENTS

01
Introduction
02
Risk analysis
process
03
Example
s
04
Endin
g
01
Introduction
Definition
s
Hazard
• Events that have the potential to
cause
Losses

Risk
• Product of the probability of a
hazardous event and its
consequence

Vulnerability
• The Potential for harm by disasters
 Earthquake
Rain

Natura
l

Sources
Hurricane

Wars
Hazard
s human

Terrorism
Measured By

Dept Are Velocit Frequenc

h a y y
Causes of dam
failures

Foundation failure Landslid Earthquake

e

Equipment malfunction
WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES?
WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...
WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...
WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...
WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...
 Agricultural losses
Property damage Soci
al
Structural
Interruption of business Dimensions
Economical

Injuries
Losses Ecologic
al
Vulnerability
Death

Levels of coping

Communit Regional
y

Individual Administrative
/personal /
 Social
dimension
Age

Dependency on the

government Experience

Education

access to transportation

degree of home ownership or

renters special needs

Structural & Economic
dimension
Types of buildings (residential, commercial, industrial, etc.)

Infrastructures and critical sites ( schools, hospitals,

emergency services, etc.)

local building codes, zoning regulations, flood control

programs and structures, etc.)

Urbanization ongoing expansion

Economic Activities (Unemployment, taxes, etc.)

Environmental or
Natural
Availability of fresh water resources

Climate Change impact of flood

frequency Rare species, Nature reserves,

etc.
Definitions…(2)
Hazards identification
• specify information on the nature and characteristics of the hazardous event and the community

Hazards Analysis
• knowing what could happen, the likelihood of it, and having some idea of the extent of the
problems that could arise
Vulnerability analysis
• measuring of a community’s tendency to incur (physical, political, economic, and social) losses

Risk analysis
• assessment of the probability of a hazardous event and the consequences that might occur to
the vulnerable items
Definitions…(3)
 RISK/RELIABILITY-BASED ENGINEERING
DESIGN

Appropriate level
of protection

Cost of Losses
protectio of
n damage
s
02
Risk analysis
process
CONTENT
S
 Risk analysis process
 Risk Matrix
 Hazard-vulnerability function
 Applications
 Conclusions and
recommendations
Where flood risk analysis is
necessary?
 Historical information (human memory,
chronicles etc.)
 Meteorological and hydrological data
 Analysis of potential breakdowns of Watershed’s
hydro- technological sites outlet
 Hazards analysis
process
Hazards Vulnerabilit Risk analysis
identificatio y analysis • Likelihood
n • Vulnerability of incident
• Identify zone • Severity
hazards • Human • Consequenc
• Location population es
• Quantity s
of • Critical
chemical facilities
 Economi
c
Assets

Human COMMUNITY Natural

society PROFILE Resource
s

Hazards
identificatio
n

HAZARDS HAZARDS
PROFILE MODELIN
G
HAZARDS
MODELING
HAZARDS
PROFILE
Vulnerability
analysis
measuring of a community’s propensity to incur (physical, political, economic, and social)
losses

Exposure Resistance
• Population • Political will
• Economy • Economic incentives
• Natural resources • Use of technology
• Agriculture production • Infrastructure hardening
• Infrastrucure • Restoration of natural resource
• Value of natural base
landscape • Social cohesion
• Experience
• Climate change
• social or cultural values
Vulnerability analysis -
Indicators
a variable provides
information

Simplicity Data quality

Measurabl • clearly reflects • reliable
e • Understandable sources

Sensitivity Validity Achievable

• Timely • Accurate • Data
related • verifiabl Sources
e • cost
effective
Indicators
examples
Social
• lower incomes (%of <1000 L.E/month)
• Age (% > 65; %<13 years)
• Disabled (% of population)
• Female (alone, households, single mothers) (% of
population)
• Homelessness, minorities, illiterates (% of population)
• Few vehicles (#/1000 c)

Economic
• Employment loss (#)
• business sales or taxes reduction ($)
• Tourist Occupancy losses (#)
• Damages repairing costs
Risk
Analysis
the determination of the likelihood of a disaster and possible
consequences.
Identifying
community
vulnerabilit
y indicators

Risk
Analysi
the probability of s
the hazard
occurring
 Risk
Analysis
Significant None
First aid or minor medical
Minor
treatment, little or no impact to
the community
Chance of occurring in a Minor injuries, lost workday accident,
given year Moderate minor system damage, minor property damage,
and some community disruption
Certain >99%
Permanent partial disability,
Likely 50%–99% temporary disability in excess of 3
Major months,
Possible 5%–49%
major or significant property
Unlikely 2%–5% damage, Significant
Rare 1%–2% disruption
Extremely rare <1% Death or permanent and total
Catastrophic disability, Major or significant property
damage, failure or complete
community trouble
Risk
Analysis
Risk
Matrix ACTION
NECESS
ARY
Hazard-vulnerability (exampl
functions e)
Hazard-vulnerability
function
Damage Hazard information Vulnerability
Building content Flood depth (and duration) Financial
Building construction Flood velocity (and duration) Building resistance
Human beings Flood depth and Flood velocity Human physical resistance
Vehicle Flood depth and Flood velocity Vehicle resistance
Human body health Contaminations Human body resistance
03
Example
s
 Crops’ flood hazard mapping -
Bangladesh

Frequency water level

analysis
Flood Hazard Hazar
Flood Depth
Maps d
DEM
damage
function
s
Landuse map Cost
satellite Vulnerability
Crops maps Estimatio
images Land cover n
map
Assessing flooding hazards on a proposed
industrial plant/site is northern India
Estimation of
probable maximum
flood
Development of Dam break
simulation model using MIKE
11
Flood hazard assessment
the Flood Protection of the City of
Dahab
 Experiments to test mathematical models
results

Testa, G., et all, 2007. Flash flood flow experiment in a simplified urban district. J. Hydraul. Res. 45, 37–
44
 Simulating flood risk vulnerability of
buildings
Bending Shear
moments forces

Mazzorana, B., 2014. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings. Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci.
 Developing new criterion for the stability of a
human body in flood waters

Xia, J., et all., 2014. New criterion for the stability of a human body in floodwaters. J. Hydraul. Res. 52, 93–
104
 Better estimation of risk and
damages

Yamaguchi, Satoshi, et al. "Development of GIS-based flood-simulation software and application to flood-risk
assessment." Second IMA International Conference on Flood Risk Assessment. 2007.
04
Endin
g
Conclusion
s
Hazards analysis is not an isolated process but ongoing one
that engages the local community.
 Risk communication, citizen participation, risk management,
and ongoing assessment are all parts of comprehensive
emergency management.
Recommendation
s
Data collecting (surveys,
questioners,
 Develop risk assessment models.
 Develop Evacuation plans
 Develop Community Resilience
plans
 Provide Risks Communicating tools
Reference
s Pine, J., 2015. Hazards analysis : reducing the impact of disasters.
 Joern, Birkmann. Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards:
towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press,
2006.
 Natale, E., 2009. Dam Break Risk Assessment in Baker Valley
(Chilean Patagonia).
 Voortman, H. G., Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., & Vrijling, J. K. (2002).
Risk- based design of large-scale flood defence systems. Delft
University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and
Geosciences.
 Tung, Yeou-Koung. "Risk/reliability-based hydraulic engineering
design." L. May (1999): 1-56.
Questions
Time
Thank
you