Probability of an Event

MATH142-2
Engineering Data Analysis
 Course Outcome
Compute the probability distribution of a random variable for
both discrete and continuous data.
 Intended Learning Outcomes
• At the end of the lesson, the
students are expected to • Identify various ways of
• Define probability; and solving for the probability of
• Relate counting techniques to an event;
real life situations. • Differentiate discrete and
• Compute for the probability continuous random variables;
of an event; and
• Classify variables according to
scales of measurement.
 Probability
• A tool to relate the descriptive statistics to Sample Space
inferential statistics • The set of all possible outcomes of a random
• Ratio of number of samples derived from the experiment
total population • Denoted as S
• Deals with counting elements

Examples:
Random Experiment • Consider the experiment of tossing a die.
• An experiment that can result in different • Sample space for the number appearing on
outcomes, even though it is repeated in the the top face:
same manner every time
S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Sample space for the number appearing on
• Examples: the top face whether it is even or odd:
- Measuring energy lost on a simple machine. S2 = {even, odd}
- Measuring the strength of steel.
 Sample Spaces
DISCRETE SAMPLE SPACE CONTINUOUS SAMPLE SPACE
• A sample space is discrete if it consists of a • A sample space is continuous if it
finite or countable infinite set of outcomes. contains an interval (either finite or
• Examples: infinite) of real numbers.
- Sample space for the number appearing on
the top face: Example:
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} - Sample space of the life in years (t) of a
certain component:
- Sample space for a thrown die until a five S = {t|t ≥ 0}
occurs:
• S = {F, NF, NNF, NNNF, …}
• where F = occurrence of 5 and N =
nonoccurrence of 5.
 Event
• Subset of the sample space of a random
experiment
• Consider the events E1 and E2.
Union of two events Complement of an event
- Consists of all outcomes that are contained - Set of outcomes in the sample space that
in either of the two events are not in the event
- Denoted by E1 ∪ E2 - The complement of the event E is E′ or EC.
- (E′)′ = E

Mutually Exclusive Events

• Two events, denoted as E1 and E2 , such that
Intersection of two events E1 ∩ E2 = ∅
- Consists of all outcomes that are contained • Let M = {a, e, i, o, u} and N = {r, s, t}; then it
in both of the two events follows that M ∩ N = ∅. That is, M and N
- Denoted by E1 ∩ E2 have no elements in common and,
therefore, cannot occur simultaneously.
 Counting Techniques
• An important part of combinatorics Multiplication Rule
(study of arrangement of objects
which is part of discrete • If an operation can be performed in n1
mathematics) ways, and if for each of these a second
operation can be performed in n2
• Methods used for counts of the ways, then the two operations can be
numbers of outcomes in the sample performed in n1n2 ways.
space and various events for
analyzing random experiments • Example:
• Used for more complicated • How many sample points are in the
problems and more difficult sample sample space when a pair of dice is
thrown once?
space or an event
• The first die can land in any one of n1 =
6 ways. For each of these 6 ways the
second die can also land in n2 = 6 ways.
Therefore, the pair of dice can land in
• n1n2 = (6)(6) = 36 possible ways.
 Generalized Multiplication Rule
• If an operation can be • Sam is going to assemble a
performed in n1 ways, and if computer by himself. He has the
for each of these a second choice of ordering chips from two
operation can be performed in brands, a hard drive from four,
memory from three and an
n2 ways, and for each of the accessory bundle from five local
first and two a third operation stores. How many different ways
can be performed in n3 ways, can Sam order the parts?
and so forth, then the Since n1 = 2, n2 = 4, n3 = 3, and n4
sequence of k operations can = 5, there are
be performed in n1n2…nk ways. n1 × n2 × n3 × n4 = 2×4×3×5 = 120
ways.
 Generalized Multiplication Rule
• 2-16/46 How many even four-digit
numbers can be formed from the
digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit
can be used only once? • 2-34/28 A wireless garage door
opener has a code determined by
the up or down setting of 10
switches. How many outcomes are
• 2-30/51 In how many different ways in the sample space of possible
can a true-false test consisting of 9 codes?
questions can be answered?
• 2-35/28 An order for a computer
can specify any one of five memory
sizes, any one of three types of
displays, and any one of five sizes of
hard disks, and can either include or
not include a pen tablet? How many
 Guided Learning Activity 1
• 14/340 In a version of the computer
language BASIC, the name of a
variable is a string of one or two
alphanumeric characters, where
uppercase and lowercase letters are
not distinguished. (An alphanumeric
character is either one of the 26
English letters or one of the 10
digits.) Moreover, a variable name
must begin with a letter and must
be different from the five strings of
two characters that are reserved for
programming use. How many
different variable names are there in
this version of BASIC?
 Counting Techniques
•   ordered sequence of the elements
An •The number of permutations of
Example: subsets of r elements selected from
a set of n different elements is
• Consider the three letters a, b, and
c. The possible permutations are
abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, and cba.

The number of permutations of n

different elements is n! (read as n
factorial) where
n! = n × (n ─ 1) × (n ─ 2) × … × 2 × 1 •Note:

Note: 0! = 1
 Permutation
• 
2-10/24 Printed Circuit Board The number of permutations of n
A printed circuit board has eight distinct objects arranged in a
different locations in which a circle is (n − 1)!.
component can be placed. If four
different components are to be Example:
placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible? 2-43/52 In how many ways can 5
different trees be planted in a
circle?
P48 = 8P4 = P(8, 4) = 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 =
= 1680 different designs are possible
Circular Permutation
 Permutation of Similar Objects
•  PERMUTATION WITH REPETITION ORDERED PARTITION
The number of permutations of n = n1 + n2 The number of ways of partitioning a set of
+ … + nr objects of which n1 are of one n objects into r cells with n1 elements in
type, n2 are of second type, … , and nr are the first cell, n2 elements in the second,
of an rth type is . and so forth, is

Example: where n1 + n2 + … + nr = n.
2-45/52 How many distinct permutations Example:
can be made from the letters of the word 2-20/49 In how many ways can 7 scientists
INFINITY? be assigned to one triple and two double
hotel rooms?
 Combination
•the  one cell containing the r objects selected and
A combination is actually a partition of two cells,
the other cell containing the (n − r) objects that are
left.

The number of such combinations, denoted by Examples:

2-13/25 Printed Circuit Board Layout
A printed circuit board has eight different
, is usually shortened to , locations in which a component can be placed.
If five identical components are to be placed on
the board, how many different designs are
since the number of elements in the second cell possible?
must be (n − r).
The number of combinations of n distinct objects
taken r at a time is
 Guided Learning Activity
2.31/51 A witness to a hit-and-run accident (a) In how many different ways can a
told the police that the license number student check off one answer to each
contained the letters RLH followed by 3 digits, question?
the first of which was a 5. If the witness (b) In how many ways can a student check
cannot recall the last 2 digits, but is certain off one answer to each question and get all
that all 3 digits are different, find the the answers wrong?
maximum number of automobile registrations
that the police may have to check.
2.36/52 (a) How many three-digit numbers
can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
2.32/52 (a) In how many ways can 6 people be and 6 if each digit can be used only once?
lined up to get on a bus? (b) How many of these are odd numbers?
(b) If 3 specific persons, among 6, insist on (c) How many are greater than 330?
following each other, how many ways are
possible?
(c) If 2 specific persons, among 6, refuse to
follow each other, how many ways are
possible?

2.33/52 If a multiple-choice test consists of

 Guided Learning Activity
2-46/52 In how many ways can 3 oaks, 4 pines, and
2 maples be arranged along a property line if one
does not distinguish among trees of the same kind? 11/358 How many poker hands of five cards can
be dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards? Also,
how many ways are there to select 47 cards
2-12/26 A part is labeled by printing with four thick from a standard deck of 52 cards?
lines, three medium lines, and two thin lines. If
each ordering of the nine lines represent a different
label, how many different labels can be generated 12/360 How many ways are there to select five
by using this scheme? players from a 10-member tennis team to
make a trip to a match at another school?

2-14/25 Sampling without Replacement

A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains three
defective parts and 47 nondefective parts. A
sample of six parts is selected from the 50 parts
without replacement. That is, each part can only be
selected once and the sample is a subset of the 50
parts. How many different samples are there of size
6 that contain exactly 2 defective parts?
 Guided Learning Activity
• 13/360 A group of 30 people have been trained as astronauts to go
on the first mission to Mars. How many ways are there to select a
crew of six people to go on this mission (assuming that all crew
members have the same job)?

• 15/360 Suppose that there are 9 faculty members in the

mathematics department and 11 in the computer science
department. How many ways are there to select a committee to
develop a discrete mathematics course at a school if the committee
is to consist of three faculty members from the mathematics
department and four from the computer science department?
 Probability
Classical Approach Frequency Approach
If an event can occur in h different ways out of If after n repetitions of an experiment,
a total number of n possible ways, all of which where n is very large, an event is observed
are equally likely, then the probability of the to occur in h of these, then the probability
event is h/n. of the event is h/n. This is also called the
Example: empirical probability of the event.
Suppose we want to know the probability Example:
that a head will turn up in a single toss of If we toss a coin 1000 times and find that it
coin. Since there are two equally likely comes up heads 532 times, we estimate
ways in which the coin can come the probability of a head coming up to be
up−namely, heads and tails (assuming it 532/1000 = 0.532.
does not roll away or stand on its edge)
−and of these two ways a head can arise
only one way, we reason that the required
probability is ½. In arriving at this, we
assume that the coin is fair, i.e., not loaded
in any way.
 Probability of an Event
In any random experiment there is
always uncertainty as to whether a
particular event will or will not Equivalently, we can say that the
occur. As a measure of the chance, odds against its occurrence are
or probability, with which we can 75% to 25%, or 3 to 1.
expect the event to occur, it is
convenient to assign a number
between 0 and 1. P is called of probability function
P(A) is the probability of the event
A
For a sure event, the probability is
100% or 1.

Impossible event has a probability

of 0.
If the probability is ¼, we would say
 Probability
Equally Likely Outcomes (1) P(S) = 1
Whenever a sample space (discrete) consists (2) 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
of N possible outcomes that are equally likely, (3) For two events E1 and E2, with E1 ∩ E2 =
the probability of each outcome is 1/N.
∅
P(E1 ∪ E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)
Probability of an Event
For a discrete sample space, the probability of
an event E, denoted as P(E), equals the sum of If A′ is the complement of A, then
the probabilities of the outcomes in E. P(A′) = 1 − P(A)

A number assigned to each member of a

collection of events from a random
experiment that satisfies the following
properties:
 Probability
Examples: 2.55/60 If each coded item in a catalog
2.51/59 A box contains 500 envelopes of begins with 3 distinct letters followed by 4
which 75 contain $100 in cash, 150 contain distinct nonzero digits, find the probability
$25, and 275 contain $10. An envelope may of randomly selecting one of these coded
be purchased for $25. What is the sample items with the first letter a vowel and the
space for the different amounts of money? last digit even.
Assign probabilities to the sample points and
then find the probability that the first 2.57/60 If a letter is chosen at random
envelope purchased contains less than $100. from the English alphabet, find the
probability that the letter
Solution: (a) is a vowel exclusive of y;
A=$100 (75) P(A)=75/500 = 0.15 P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B) (b) is listed somewhere ahead of the letter j;
B=$25 (150) P(B)=150/500 = 0.3 =0.15+0.3 (c) is listed somewhere after the letter g.
C=$10 (275) P(C)=275/500 = 0.055 = 0.45
S={A, B, C}
 Probability
2.58/60 A pair of dice is tossed. Find the (a) the dictionary is selected?
probability of getting (b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are
(a) a total of 8; selected?
(b) at most a total of 5.
2.59/60 In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards,
find the probability of holding 4.17/194 Among five portable generators
(a) 3 aces; produced by an assembly line in one day,
there are two defectives. If two generators
(b) 4 hearts and 1 club. are selected for sale, find the probability
that both will be nondefective. (Assume
2.60/60 If 3 books are picked at random from the two selected for sale are chosen so that
a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems, every possible sample of size two has the
and a dictionary, what is the probability that same probability of being selected.)

4.21/194 A fleet of eight taxis is to be

randomly assigned to three airports, A, B,
and C, with two going to A, five to B, and
one to C.
(a) In how many ways can this be done?
 Guided Learning Activity
•  2-16/31 A random experiment can result in one
of the outcomes {a, b, c, d} with probabilities
4.25/195 A firm is placing three orders for supplies 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.1, respectively. Let A denote
among five different distributors. Each order is the event {a, b}, B the event {b, c, d}, and C the
randomly assigned to one of the distributors, and event {d}.
a distributor can receive multiple orders. Find the
following probabilities.
(a) All orders go to different distributors.
(b) All orders go to the same distributor.
(c) Exactly two of the three orders go to one Determine the following probabilities.
particular distributor. P(A) P(B) P(C)
P(A′) P(B’) P(C′ )
2-58/33 Each of the possible five outcomes of a P(A ∩ B)
random experiment is equally likely. The sample
space is {a, b, c, d, e}. Let A denote the event {a, b}, P(A ∪ B)
and B denote the event {c, d, e}. Determine the
following. P(A ∩ C).
(a) P(A) (b) P(B)
(c) P(A′) (d) P(A ∪ B)
(e) P(A ∩ B)
 Theorems on Probability
Probability of a Union (b) in neither city?
For any two events A and B, 2-92/39 A Web ad can be designed from
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) four different colors, three font types,
five font sizes, three images, and five
(2-5) text phrases. A specific design is
Examples: randomly generated by the Web server
2-53/59 The probability that an American when you visit the site. Let A denote the
industry will locate in Shanghai, China, is event that the design color is red and let
0.7, the probability that it will locate in B denote the event that the font size is
Beijing, China, is 0.4, and the probability not the smallest one. Use addition rules
that it will locate in either Shanghai or to calculate the following probabilities.
Beijing or Both is 0.8. What is the (a) P(A ∪ B)
probability that the industry will locate
(b) P(A ∪ B′)
(a) in both cities?
(c) P(A′ ∪ B′)
 Addition Rules
If A and B are mutually exclusive
events,
Probability of Union of Three Events
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Equation 2-6
For any three events A, B, and C,
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩
C)− P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
Equation 2-7

For a collection of mutually exclusive

events E1, E2, …, Ek,
P(E1 ∪ E2 ∪ … ∪ Ek) = P(E1) + P(E2) + … +
P(Ek)
Equation 2-8
 Guided Learning Activity
2-83/38 If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events with P(A) =
0.2, P(B) = 0.3, and P(C) = 0.4, determine the following
probabilities:
(a) P(A ∪ B ∪ C)
(b) P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
(c) P(A ∩ B)
(d) P[(A ∪ B) ∩ C]
(e) P(A′ ∩ B′ ∩ C′)
 Conditional Probability
•occur
The
  probability that a certain event would To select randomly implies that at each step
given a previous underlying event of the sample, the items that remain in the
already occurred batch are equally likely to be selected.

The conditional probability of an event B 2-24/42 Random Inspection

given an event A, denoted as P(B|A), is Six parts are selected randomly without
replacement from a bin of 50 parts. The
bin contains 3 defective parts and 47
P(B|A) = for P(A) > 0. nondefective parts. What is the probability
Equation 2-9 that the second part is defective given that
the first part is defective?
Solution:
RANDOM SAMPLES Let A and B denote the events that the first
and second part selected are defective,
respectively. The probability requested can
be expressed as P(B|A). If the first part is
defective, prior to selecting the second
part the batch contains 49 parts, of which
 Conditional Probability
•contamination
2-104/44
  Consider the data on wafer
and location in the
(a)P(A|B) =
sputtering tool shown in Table 2-2. (b)P(B) = 0.72
Assume that one wafer is selected at (c)P(B|A) = =
random from this set. Let A denote the (e) P() = 0.11
event that a wafer contains four or more (f) P( = P(A)+P(B)-P()
particles, and let B denote the event that = 0.15+0.72-0.11
a wafer is from the center of the
sputtering tool. Determine = 0.76
(a) P(A)
(b) P(A|B)
(c) P(B)
(d) P(B|A)
(e) P(A ∩ B)
(f) P(A ∪ B)
Solution:
 Multiplication Rules and Total Probability
For any two events A and B, P(B) = P(B ∩ E1) + P(B ∩ E2) + … + P(B ∩ Ek)

P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A)P(A) = P(A|B)P(B)

P(B) = P(B|E1)P(E1) + P(B|E1)P(E1) + …+(B|Ek)P(Ek)
Equation 2-10
Equation 2-12
For any three events A1, A2, A3, we
have
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3) = P(A1)P(A2|A1)P(A3|A1 ∩ A2)
Assume E1, E2, …, Ek are k mutually
exclusive and exhaustive sets. Then
 Guided Learning Activity
•generator
4.32/205 A small store installed a diesel-powered
  for emergency power outage because
they function independently of electric power. The 2-122/48 Suppose that P(A|B) = 0.2, P(A|B′) =
past history of the town indicates that on about 0.3, and P(B) = 0.8. What is P(A)?
5% of days during summer the town loses 2-123/48 The probability is 1% that an
electricity due to high winds. However, high winds electrical connector that is kept dry fails during
do not affect functioning of generators. These the warranty period of a portable computer. If
generators have a failure rate of about 2%. On a the connector is ever wet, the probability of a
given summer day, what is the probability that the failure during the warranty period is 5%. If 90%
store will be totally out of power? of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are
2-127/48 Computer keyboard failures are due to wet, what proportion of connectors fail during
faulty electrical connects (12%) or mechanical the warranty period?
defects (88%). Mechanical defects are related to
loose keys (27%) or improper assembly (73%).
Electrical connect defects are caused by defective
wires (35%), improper connections (13%), or
poorly welded wires (52%).
(a) Find the probability that a failure is due to
loose keys.
(b) Find the probability that a failure is due to
improperly connected or poorly welded wires.
 Independence
•equal
The
  conditional
to P(B)
probability of P(B|A) is
Equivalently, P(A′ ∩ B′) = P(A′)P(B′)

The outcome of the experiment is in

event A does not affect the probability Multiple Events
that the outcome is in event B The events E1, E2, …, En are
independent if and only if for any
subset of these events ,
Two events are independent if any one of
the following equivalent statements is
true:
(1) P(A|B) = P(A) Equation 2-14

(2) P(B|A) = P(B)

(3) P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)
Equations 2-13
• 
Examples:
4.33/205 Suppose that P(A) = 0.6, P(B) =
0.3, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.15.
(a) Determine P(A|B).
(b) Are events A and B independent?

Solution:
(a) P(A|B) = = = 0.50

(b) P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)

4.35/205 A manufacturer of computer keyboards has
assembly plants at two different locations, one in Iowa
and the other in South Carolina. The keyboard faults in
general are classified into three different categories
depending on the location: fault related to a letter key,
a number key, or other function key. The summary of
 Guided Learning Activity
2-143/52 If P(A|B) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.8,
and P(A) = 0.3, are the events B and
the complement of A independent? 2-150/53 In a test of a printed
circuit board using a random test
pattern, an array of 10 bits is
equally likely to be 0 or 1. Assume
that the bits are independent.
(a) What is the probability that all
2-144/52 If P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.2, and bits are 1s?
A and B are mutually exclusive, are (b) What is the probability that all
they independent? bits are 0s?
(c) What is the probability that
exactly 5 bits are 1s and 5 bits are
0s?
 Reliability
Reliability theory is concerned with
the duration of the useful life of
components and systems of
components. That is, it is concerned
with determining that a system with
possibly many components will be
functioning at time t. The
components of a system can arranged
in two basic configurations: series
configuration and parallel
configuration. A real system consists
of a mixture of series and parallel
components, which can sometimes
be reduced to an equivalent system
of series configuration or a system of
parallel configuration.
A system with series configuration will
 Reliability
•  SERIES PROCESS PARALLEL PROCESS
Consider a system with n components labeled In the case of a system of parallel
C1, C2, …, Cn. Let Rk(t) denote the probability components, we need at least one path
that component Ck has not failed in the between A and B for the system to be
interval (0, t], where k = 1, 2, …, n. That is, operational. The probability that no such path
Rk(t) is the probability that Ck has not failed up exists is the probability that all the
to time t and is called the reliability function components have failed, which is given by
of Ck. For a system of components in series, [1 − R1(t)] [1 − R2(t)] … [1 − Rn(t)]. Thus, the
the system reliability function is given by system reliability function is the complement
of this function and is given by

.
R(t) = 1 − [1 − R1(t)] [1 − R2(t)] … [1 − Rn(t)]

This follows from the fact that all components

must be operational for the system to be .
operational.
 Reliability
• 2-32/51 Series Circuit The following
circuits operates only if there is a
path of functional devices from left • 2-34/51 Parallel Circuit The
to right. The probability (reliability) following circuit operates if there is
that each device functions is shown a path of functional devices from
on the graph. Assume the devices left to right. The probability
fail independently. What is the (reliability) that each device
probability that the circuit functions is shown on the graph.
operates? Let L and R denote the Assume that devices fail
events that the left and right independently. What is the
devices operate, respectively. probability that the circuit
operates? Let T and B denote the
events that the top and bottom
devices operate, respectively.
 Compound Series and Parallel Networks
1.35/43 Find the system reliability
function for the system shown in
Figure 1.10 in which C1 and C2 are in
series and the two are in parallel with
C3.
Solution:
We first reduce the series structure into a
composite component C4 whose reliability
function is given by R4(t) = R1(t)R2(t). Thus,
we obtain the new structure shown in
Figure 1.11
Thus, we obtain two parallel components
and the system reliability function is
R(t) = 1 − [1 − R3(t)] [1 − R4(t)]
R(t) = 1 − [1 − R3(t)] [1 − R1(t)R2(t)]
 Guided Learning Activity
• 2-35/52 Advanced Circuit The
following circuit operates only
if there is a path of functional
devices from left to right. The
probability (reliability) that
each device functions is shown
on the graph. Assume that
devices fail independently.
What is the probability that
the circuit operates? Let L
denote the event that there is
a path of functional devices
only through the three units
on the left. Similarly, let M
denote the event that there is
 Reliability
• 2-156/53 The following circuit
operates if and only if there is a
path of functional devices from left
to right. The probability that each
device functions is as shown.
Assume that the probability that a
device is functional does not
depend on whether or not other
devices are functional. What is the
probability that the circuit
operates?
 Summary
• A random experiment is an experiment • A permutation is an arrangement of all (n!)
that can result in different outcomes, even or part (permutation of subsets) of a set of
though it is repeated in the same manner objects.
each time. • Two circular permutations are not
• The sample space is the set of all possible considered different unless corresponding
outcomes of a random experiment. objects in the two arrangements are
• The event is a subset of a sample space. preceded or followed by a different object
as we proceed in a clockwise direction. For
• Multiplication rule is a formula used to example, if 4 people are playing bridge, we
determine the number of ways to do not have a new permutation if they all
complete an operation from the number of move one position in a clockwise direction.
ways to complete successive steps. By considering one person in a fixed
position and arranging the other in 3!
ways, we find that there are 6 distinct
arrangements for the bridge game.
• A combination is actually a partition with
two cells, the on cell containing the r
objects selected and the other cell
containing the (n ─ r) objects that are left.
 Summary
• Probability is a numerical measure • Independence is a property of a probability
between 0 and 1 assigned to events in a model and two (or more) events that
sample space. Higher numbers indicate the allows the probability of the intersection to
event is more likely to occur. be calculated as the product of the
• The odds equals the ratio of two probabilities.
probabilities. • For the total probability rule, given a
• The addition rule is the formula used to collection of mutually exclusive events
determine the probability of the union of whose union is the sample space, the
two (or more) events from the probability of an event can be written as
probabilities of the events and their the sum of the probabilities of the
intersection(s). intersections of the event with the
members of this collection.
• Conditional probability is the probability of • Reliability is the probability that a specified
an event given that the random mission will be completed. It usually refers
experiment produces an outcome in to the probability that a lifetime of a
another event. continuous random variable exceeds a
• The multiplication rule is the formula used specified time limit.
to determine the probability of the
intersection of two (or more) events.
 References
• Ibe, Oliver C. Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random
Processes, © 2005
• Montgomery and Runger. Applied Statistics and Probability for
Engineers, 6th Ed. © 2014
• Scheaffer, et al. Probability and Statistics for Engineering
Students, Philippine Ed. © 2012
• Spiegel, et al. Schaum’s Outlines Probability and Statistics, 3 rd Ed.
© 2009, 2000, 1975
• Walpole, et al. Probability and Statistics for Engineers and
Scientists 9th Ed. © 2012, 2007, 2002