Probability of An Event: MATH142-2 Engineering Data Analysis
Probability of An Event: MATH142-2 Engineering Data Analysis
MATH142-2
Engineering Data Analysis
Course Outcome
Compute the probability distribution of a random variable for
both discrete and continuous data.
Intended Learning Outcomes
• At the end of the lesson, the
students are expected to • Identify various ways of
• Define probability; and solving for the probability of
• Relate counting techniques to an event;
real life situations. • Differentiate discrete and
• Compute for the probability continuous random variables;
of an event; and
• Classify variables according to
scales of measurement.
Probability
• A tool to relate the descriptive statistics to Sample Space
inferential statistics • The set of all possible outcomes of a random
• Ratio of number of samples derived from the experiment
total population • Denoted as S
• Deals with counting elements
Examples:
Random Experiment • Consider the experiment of tossing a die.
• An experiment that can result in different • Sample space for the number appearing on
outcomes, even though it is repeated in the the top face:
same manner every time
S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Sample space for the number appearing on
• Examples: the top face whether it is even or odd:
- Measuring energy lost on a simple machine. S2 = {even, odd}
- Measuring the strength of steel.
Sample Spaces
DISCRETE SAMPLE SPACE CONTINUOUS SAMPLE SPACE
• A sample space is discrete if it consists of a • A sample space is continuous if it
finite or countable infinite set of outcomes. contains an interval (either finite or
• Examples: infinite) of real numbers.
- Sample space for the number appearing on
the top face: Example:
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} - Sample space of the life in years (t) of a
certain component:
- Sample space for a thrown die until a five S = {t|t ≥ 0}
occurs:
• S = {F, NF, NNF, NNNF, …}
• where F = occurrence of 5 and N =
nonoccurrence of 5.
Event
• Subset of the sample space of a random
experiment
• Consider the events E1 and E2.
Union of two events Complement of an event
- Consists of all outcomes that are contained - Set of outcomes in the sample space that
in either of the two events are not in the event
- Denoted by E1 ∪ E2 - The complement of the event E is E′ or EC.
- (E′)′ = E
Note: 0! = 1
Permutation
•
2-10/24 Printed Circuit Board The number of permutations of n
A printed circuit board has eight distinct objects arranged in a
different locations in which a circle is (n − 1)!.
component can be placed. If four
different components are to be Example:
placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible? 2-43/52 In how many ways can 5
different trees be planted in a
circle?
P48 = 8P4 = P(8, 4) = 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 =
= 1680 different designs are possible
Circular Permutation
Permutation of Similar Objects
• PERMUTATION WITH REPETITION ORDERED PARTITION
The number of permutations of n = n1 + n2 The number of ways of partitioning a set of
+ … + nr objects of which n1 are of one n objects into r cells with n1 elements in
type, n2 are of second type, … , and nr are the first cell, n2 elements in the second,
of an rth type is . and so forth, is
Example: where n1 + n2 + … + nr = n.
2-45/52 How many distinct permutations Example:
can be made from the letters of the word 2-20/49 In how many ways can 7 scientists
INFINITY? be assigned to one triple and two double
hotel rooms?
Combination
•the one cell containing the r objects selected and
A combination is actually a partition of two cells,
the other cell containing the (n − r) objects that are
left.
Solution:
(a) P(A|B) = = = 0.50
.
R(t) = 1 − [1 − R1(t)] [1 − R2(t)] … [1 − Rn(t)]