Technology Management MS 325: Standard Battles and Design Dominance
Technology Management MS 325: Standard Battles and Design Dominance
MS 325
Value of Technology
Standard Battles and Design Dominance
Technology Cycles
• Technological change tends to be cyclical:
• Each new s-curve ushers in an initial period of turbulence,
followed by rapid improvement, then diminishing returns, and
ultimately is displaced by a new technological discontinuity.
• Utterback and Abernathy characterized the technology cycle
into two phases:
• The fluid phase (when there is considerable uncertainty about
the technology and its market; firms experiment with
different product designs in this phase)
• After a dominant design emerges (bringing a stable
architecture to the technology), the specific phase begins
(when firms focus on incremental improvements to the
design and manufacturing efficiency).
• For example, energy production by using fossil fuel etc.
Standard Battles and Design Dominance
Technology Cycles
• Anderson and Tushman also found that technological change
proceeded cyclically.
• Each discontinuity inaugurates a period of turbulence and
uncertainty (era of ferment) until a dominant design is
selected, ushering in an era of incremental change.
Standard Battles and Design Dominance
Technology Cycles
Anderson and Tushman found that:
• A dominant design always rose to command the majority of
market share unless the next discontinuity arrived too early.
Class Activity 1
Are dominant designs good for Consumers? Competitors?
Complementors? Suppliers?
Standard Battles and Design Dominance
Value of Technology
• Network Externality Value -> Size of Technology’s Installed Base
and Availability of Complementary goods.
For Example: NeXT personal computers. Sony and Philip’s super audio
CD players.
Standard Battles and Design Dominance
• Objective information;
actual benefits, installed
base and complementary
goods
• Subjective information:
perceived benefits, base and
complementary goods
• Expectations: anticipated
benefits, base and
complementary goods
• Use of Vaporware tactic
Standard Battles and Design Dominance