USA basketball vs. the field: Updated Gold Medal odds for 2024 Paris Olympics

The FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments (OQTs) have concluded, with Greece, Spain, Puerto Rico, and Brazil all winning last-chance berths in the 2024 Olympic basketball tournament in Paris. Those four teams and seven other squads that had already qualified will face perhaps the toughest sports task of the summer: defeating Team USA.

Many have tried, but few have succeeded in knocking the U.S. squad out of the Olympics. USA has won four straight gold medals, seven of the past eight dating back to the Dream Team in 1992, and a record 16 total. The 2024 squad, possibly the last Olympics hoorah for LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and Kawhi Leonard, is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the 12-team field. 

MORE: Ranking Team USA's 12 players | Dillon Brooks' bold statement to U.S.

The sportsbooks have taken notice of Team USA's embarrassment of riches in terms of size, defense, rebounding, shooting, and playmaking. BetMGM lists the United States as a -400 favorite to win the Gold Medal game. That's an implied win probability of 80 percent, for anyone wondering what that means (you would need to risk $400 on USA to make a potential profit of $100 if they win it all). 

Big surprise: the land of the free and home of the NBA has the best shot to win the Olympics again. But who are the dark horses? Does Canada have a realistic chance of upsetting its neighbors to the south? Can host nation France shock the world with its Stifle-Tower duo of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama? Can multiple NBA MVPs like Serbia's Nikola Jokic and Greece's Giannis Antetokounmpo put their countries on their back?

Let's take a look at Team USA's updated odds to win the 2024 Olympic basketball tournament in Paris, and discuss whether the odds-on favorites make a good value bet ahead of the July 27 tourney tipoff. 

Olympics basketball Paris 2024: Odds to win

All odds courtesy of BetMGM. 

MORE: Who will win the 2024 Olympics men's basketball tournament?

Olympics basketball Paris 2024: Favorite

USA (-400)

As the intro and the odds board suggest, Team USA is widely expected to win it all this summer. Canada has improved mightily over the years, and NBA MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes for a fantastic team leader, but the reigning champions have far too much talent from top to bottom to be considered anything less than a heavy favorite.

Steve Kerr's squad has just about everything. You need size? The U.S. has Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, and Joel Embiid. Need playmakers? How about LeBron James, Tyrese Haliburton, and Jayson Tatum? Need timely perimeter defense? Kawhi Leonard and Jrue Holiday should help there. Need a bucket? Cue Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Ant Edwards.

Starpower.

🇺🇸 #USABMNT 🤝 USA Select Team pic.twitter.com/Jolm4du5hI

— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) July 9, 2024

Between the 12 of them, they have 16 NBA championships, nine scoring titles, and countless All-NBA and All-Defensive selections. And they know all about legacy, and the importance of bringing gold to their country. A lot has changed since the U.S. laid an egg in 2004 and took home bronze after losing three games, the most it has ever lost in a single Olympics. 

This could be the final Olympics run for the likes of LeBron and multiple other veteran NBA stars like Steph, KD, and Kawhi. It's the first Olympics with Embiid in red, white, and blue. It's a chance for the Americans to prove that the new wave of international talent still can't hold a candle to its collective supremacy. Bet against Team USA at your own risk. 

Olympics basketball Paris 2024: Top value bet

Canada (+900)

Canada continues to evolve as a hotbed for hoops, and it's easy to understand why so many bettors have flocked to the United States neighbors to the north.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as one of the best players in the world, and Jamal Murray has demonstrated countless times that he's as cold-blooded as they come. RJ Barrett has also enjoyed moments of brilliance during international play, including a 13-of-14 performance against Germany during last year's FIBA World Cup.

Add in some dominating perimeter defenders like Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — not to mention a massive interior presence like Zach Edey — and you're talking about a team that can make some serious noise in Paris. 

Olympics basketball Paris 2024: Best sleeper

France (+1400)

No Olympic hoops betting preview would be complete this year without France, which sports a starting five of all NBA players including unanimous NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.

This team is a living surplus of rim protection, but it can also move the ball well and knock down a ton of three-pointers. It also has tremendous basketball IQ, solid coaching, and the one thing none of the other 11 teams in the field possess: the benefit of home-court advantage. 

Olympics basketball Paris 2024: Highest value long shot

Brazil (+15000)

Brazil arguably plays in the weakest overall group, somehow avoiding the USA, Canada, and Greece. It also had the most convincing win at the FIBA Olympic qualifiers, decimating Latvia 94-69. Brazil enjoyed a 19-0 run to finish the first quarter up by 23 points and never looked back. 

Leo Meindl and Bruno Caboclo have been dominant offensively and on the glass, while the Brazilians' three-point shooting has also come together. They shot an impeccable 8-of-8 from outside the arc in the first quarter of the FIBA qualifier Final. This team is way too dangerous to be priced this low, so you might want to consider a $5 lotto-ticket wager.

Olympics basketball Paris 2024: Full groups including the 'Group of Death'

Group A has been labeled the "Group of Death," with stacked Canadian and Australian teams, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece, and a proven winner in Spain. It will almost certainly be the most difficult group in the Olympics.

Group B has 2023 FIBA winner Germany, France and the twin-tower duo of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, and two scrappy squads in Brazil and Japan. This seems like a very physical group.

Group C has the best overall team, USA, but also Nikola Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Serbia as well as Jose Alvarado and Puerto Rico. None of these three groups will be a cakewalk.

Olympics basketball Paris 2024: Group picks to advance

Group A: Canada

While dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a challenge for Canada's bigs, Greece will also have a difficult time slowing down SGA and his barrage of floor-spacing weapons. Canada has the second-best roster in this tournament and quite possibly the best perimeter defense. If the threes fall, this team could win it all. 

Group B: France

France has home-court advantage and two of the best big men in the world in Wemby and Rudy Gobert. It also has seasoned veterans Nicolas Batum and Evan Fournier, both of whom play intelligent ball and hit timely threes. Don't expect anyone in this group to get past France. 

Group C: USA

The best bet to win it all also has the best shot of advancing past the group stage. The USA checked off every skill set during roster construction, and it has as good a shot as ever to win gold. Jokic and Serbia will present a challenge, but nothing that Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis haven't dealt with before. 

Team USA Olympics basketball 2024: Full roster

Team USA Olympics basketball 2024: Full schedule

* if necessary