Conference tournament season is kicking into high gear with three more leagues kicking off on Wednesday. Check out The Action Network for more expert sports betting information and to find the best online sportsbooks.
We’re hitting one game in the first round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament, plus three other regular season games in major conferences.
Let’s dive into our staff’s favorite bets for Wednesday.
Eli Hershkovich
Odds: LSU at Arkansas -2.5
Over/Under: 153
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
At this point in the college basketball season, it’s time to look towards desperate teams with an outside shot of making the big dance. Collin’s Razorbacks fit that profile, and there’s value to be had against a Tigers team that’s come close to clinching an at-large bid.
The Hogs are not only coming off a loss at Georgia on Saturday, but they also fell at LSU on Jan. 8, blowing an 11-point first-half lead. Expect Eric Musselman’s bunch to be motivated as a result, needing to win out in the regular season and make a bit of a run in the SEC tournament in order to have a chance at earning a ticket to March Madness.
Arkansas’ offense has seen an improvement since its leading-scorer Isaiah Joe (knee) returned a few games ago, averaging 1.21 points per possession during that stretch.
Joe and Co. will be able to expose LSU’s perimeter defense, as it’s allowing the second-highest 3-point scoring rate in SEC play. On the flip side, the Hogs have generated the fifth-highest 3-point percentage (33.1%) amid their conference slate — with Joe representing one of their top shooters.
Pick: Arkansas -2.5
Collin Wilson
Odds: SMU -1 at Central Florida
Over/Under: 139
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV:
Much like the PGA Tour, SMU goes through a Florida swing with Central Florida and South Florida this week. And travel has not been kind to the Mustangs.
Losers of six of its last seven trips away from Moody Coliseum, SMU has notched just one conference road victory this season. The Knights have different motivation, looking for a higher seed heading into the AAC Tournament. Thankfully for SMU, the tournament will have a home flavor with Fort Worth serving as host.
As for this game in Orlando, Central Florida must have more effort on the boards to win this game. In a loss at SMU, the Knights had a rebounding margin of -7 and never contended despite 11 steals and a 56% shooting night from 2-point range.
SMU has been the worst perimeter defense in the AAC, a number that is spiraling in the wrong direction. Central Florida has one of the higher 3-point shooting percentages and point distributions from long range.
Offensive rebounding and put-back points will be the highlight of this game, as each team fields pour defensive rebounding numbers. Look for Central Florida to have success from the 3-point line, as a better effort on the boards will continue SMU’s losing streak on the road.
Pick: Central Florida +1
Michael Calabrese
Odds: Wyoming vs. Colorado State -10.5
Over/Under: 136
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: Mountain West Network
Colorado State finished a single game out of second place, but that differential dropped them into the sixth-slot in the MWC tournament. Luckily for the Rams, they’re drawing a Wyoming team that can’t wait to wave goodbye to the 2019-2020 season.
According to KenPom’s rankings, the Rams check in 93rd nationally, and then you have to scroll for a long, long time before landing on the Pokes. Wyoming’s 273rd ranking may not even reflect just how bad they’ve been at times this season.
Wyoming ranks 300th or worse nationally in the following categories:
Points/Game
Shooting%
Three Point%
Off Rebound % (DEAD LAST)
Avg Score Margin
Lumping together away games and neutral site contests, Wyoming went 3-10 straight-up, but a surprising 10-3 ATS. Books quickly caught up to the depths of their ineptitude and began offering massive amounts of points to Cowboy-backers. In MWC play the Pokes caught an average of 15.5 points per game on the road, including 13.5 for their game against Colorado State back on Jan. 4.
Colorado State, winners of six of its last nine SU, remain my sleeper to win the MWC tournament because of Nico Carvacho and their overachieving backcourt that is littered with underclassmen. For such a young team, they’re surprisingly efficient and will easily bully Wyoming on the glass.
The question in this game is pace, but based upon their two regular season meetings, the Rams should be able to speed things up and play in the 70s. If Colorado State can force the tempo, they should blitz Wyoming early, as the Cowboys are one of the worst first half scoring teams in the nation.
Pick: CSU -6 1st Half | CSU -10.5 Game
Mike Randle
Odds: Creighton -11
Over/Under: 152.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: FSN
Creighton (22-7) is coming off a 91-71 loss at St. John’s, which ended its five-game winning streak. The Bluejays return home to face a Georgetown team that is limping across the finish line as a result of injuries and limited scholarship players.
The Hoyas defeated the Bluejays 83-80 on Jan. 15, led by senior Omer Yurtseven (20 points, 13 rebounds) and sophomore Mac McClung (19 points). However, it is likely both players will be unavailable against the Bluejays with injuries. McClung was in a walking boot before Sunday’s loss to Xavier, and Yurtseven has missed four of the past five games with an ankle injury.
Creighton ranks first in Big East play in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and 3P (37.8%). Georgetown is the worst defensive team in Big East play, ranking last in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and second-worst in 3P% defense and 2P% defense.
The Bluejays feature three guards that average double-digit points and shoot over 39% from beyond the arc in Ty-Shon Alexander (16.9 ppg, 39.8% 3P), sophomore Martin Zegarowski (15.8 ppg, 39.8% 3P), and junior Mitch Ballock (11.7 ppg, 43.1% 3P).
That level of offensive production will likely be too much for the Hoyas to stop, especially with the possibility of having only five scholarship players for this game.
Creighton has averaged 89.3 points in its last three home games, which will certainly be difficult for the worst defensive team in the Big East to stop. I’m giving the points with Creighton in a big home bounceback spot.
Pick: Creighton -11
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
