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Insider Insight
April 5, 2023
SuperBook Sports Golf Insider Jeff Sherman tees up Masters Week
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You’re damn right, Jim Nantz. It is a tradition unlike any other.
But if you just so happen to live in any one of the markets where sports betting is now legal, there’s a new tradition also like any other. And that would be betting on the Masters.
If you’ve always enjoyed watching the Masters – a.k.a. the unofficial start of spring, golf season and all things good – now you can actually participate. To clarify, you likely won’t be putzing your way towards Amen Corner, but, if you play it right, you might emerge from the weekend with enough green to buy your very own Green Jacket (check out the fine and discounted selection at Nordstrom Rack).
Never bet golf before? No problem.
“Ease into golf wagering with tournament matchups,” says Jeff Sherman, SuperBook Sports Golf Insider and VP of Risk, as well as curator of GolfOdds.com. “Getting your feet wet by having your wager beat one other golfer will give a chance for long run success and time to evaluate your methods of handicapping.”
For example, you can pick multiple golfers, and all you have to do is decide which one will beat the other. This weekend, you can pick Rory McIlroy (-120) to post a better result than Scottie Scheffler, Colin Marakwa (+110) to top Justin Thomas, or Sam Burns (-110) to beat Will Zalatoris (-110). And those are just samples; there are dozens of choices for the tournament, the round or within groups.
That’s most certainly not the only way to bet golf. There are others, of course.
Sherman will be busily updating his thoughts and tips on the Masters all weekend (his stuff can be found on Twitter (@golfodds) or on his website (GolfOdds.com), while updated odds and next round matchups will always be up quickly on the SuperBook Sports app in your state. Lately, Sherman recommends that bettors review the “strokes gained” for golfers before making bets.
“The last few years, ‘strokes gained’ has been a helpful tool for finding success at certain courses,” he says. “This week, strokes gained tee-to-green is certainly a valuable tool.”
The Masters, as is typically the case, really is unlike any other tournament – especially when it comes to wagering.
“Augusta has one of the strongest trends with course history as a strong weight,” Sherman says about betting the Masters. “Often a golfer that has performed well at Augusta can come in with relatively poor form and find success from past experiences – more so than other courses.”
Among his choices heading into the Masters weekend are the favorite McIlroy at +700, Tony Finau at a second-tier price of +2000, Sunjae Im for a mid-range pricetag of +4000, and if you’re looking for a longshot, Sherman has his eye on Tom Hoge at +100000.
“Stay away from Will Zalatoris,” he warns. “I’m not quite sure he is over his injuries from a few months back.”
Up next on the first tee… you.
Ready to tee this up? It’s Masters Week, a tradition unlike any other.
Tonight’s Trio
Three bets worth considering on a Wednesday night
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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Great American Ball Park – Cincinnati, OH
12:35 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Chicago -110
The rubber match in this three-game set seems to clearly favor one side, making this a good value game to start the day. Something almost seems amiss with the number, as this shouldn’t be a coin-toss matchup.
Yes, Cincinnati has the better early season record. The Reds are 3-2, while the Cubs are 2-3. But that seems immaterial at this point.
Instead, a look at the pitching matchup tells the story. On that front, Chicago has a distinct advantage.
Marcus Stroman is on the mound for the Cubs. In his first start of the season, the righthander gave up just three hits over six innings, not allowing a run in a 4-0 win over the Brewers.
That’s something to build upon. In addition, Chicago is 5-0 in Stroman’s last five starts on grass. That’s the playing surface at Great American Ball Park.
Meanwhile, the Reds trot out Hunter Greene. He struggled in his debut this season, giving up five hits and three runs in just 3.1 innings of work. He comes into the game with an 8.10 ERA and feeling shaky in the early going.
Throw in the fact that the Cubs are 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent scored five runs or more in the previous game and it’s hard not to like Chicago here. Cincinnati plated five runners in Tuesday’s 12-5 loss.
Don’t let the standings be of any influence. The Cubs win this one.
Richard DeMala’s pick: Chicago M/L (-110)
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Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
T-Mobile Park – Seattle, WA
4:10 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Los Angeles -160
The Angels and Mariners have split the first two games of this series, making for an intriguing game in the rubber match. Look for it to be a pitching masterclass.
Los Angeles sends their ace to the mound. Shohei Ohtani didn’t get the win on opening day, but it wasn’t because of anything he did. The righty pitched 6.0 strong innings, giving up just two hits and no runs in what would eventually be a 2-1 loss to the A’s. He’ll get his second chance at victory today.
Chris Flexen faced a similar fate in his first start of the season. The Mariners starter gave up just four hits and one run across 4.0 innings, but his team fell 9-4 to the Guardians.
For those keeping score, that’s two impressive ERAs on the mound in this one. Ohtani sits at 0.00, while Flexen is at 1.75. Thus, don’t expect a lot of runs in this one.
In Ohtani’s last six road starts against a team with a losing record, the under is 5-0-1. In his last 11 overall starts against a sub-.500 team, the under is 10-0-1. Seattle enters this game at 2-4.
Flexen has a similar number that screams the under. That side is 4-0 in the pitcher’s last four starts when the opponent allowed five runs or more in the previous game. The Mariners won 11-2 last night.
Add it all up and one thing seems obvious. Take the under in this one.
Richard DeMala’s pick: Under 7.0 runs (+110)
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Cleveland Guardians at Oakland A’s
Oakland Coliseum – Oakland, CA
3:37 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Cleveland -123
How many people will elbow their way into the Oakland Coliseum for this matinee? Last night, just 3,407 people showed up to watch the A’s beat the Guardians. On an April afternoon, that number might get cut in half.
They’ll miss the home team trying to win the three-game set. Oakland snapped a three-game losing streak last night, topping the Guardians by a 4-3 count.
They’ll try to make it two in a row with Kyle Muller on the mound. The lefthander didn’t get a decision in his first start of the season, but he pitched well, giving up just four hits and one run in 5.0 innings of work.
He’ll be bucking the odds, however. The Guardians are 7-2 in the last nine games between these two teams. Cleveland is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Oakland.
They’ll try to keep that dominance going behind Hunter Gaddis. The righthand struggled in his season debut, giving up five hits and four runs in just 3.2 innings of work against the Mariners. He’ll have to be sharper today.
Gaddis will get plenty of help. The Guardians have plated 32 runs this season, tied for the third most in the American League. Meanwhile, the A’s have scored just 18 total runs, the third lowest total in the AL.
Don’t overthink this one. The Guardians will get the W in front of a smattering of the A’s faithful.
Richard DeMala’s pick: Cleveland M/L (-123)
Perfect Parlay
Today’s best packaged deal
- Tampa Bay Rays M/L (-255)
- Houston Astros M/L (-255)
- Toronto Blue Jays M/L (-174)
Tampa Bay and Houston are the two biggest favorites on the board today, providing a good foundation. Toronto is another solid choice, despite being on the road in Kansas City. Put these three likely winners together for some good value.
Richard DeMala’s Three-Leg Parlay = +205
Around the Nation
Things we’ve learned this week
Not Everyone Gets a Blue Ribbon – She helped bring new fans to the women’s game in droves, but that doesn’t mean Caitlin Clark is looking for a handout after coming up one game short of a national title. Despite losing to LSU in the championship game, Iowa was rumored to be getting an invite to the White House. Their star player was having none of that talk, however, as she clearly explained that those honors are only for the team that cuts down the nets.
The Defending Champs are Back – As they suffered through a litany of injuries, dealt with free-agent defections and simply tried to battle past the inevitable Stanley Cup hangover, there was a time this season when it didn’t look like the Avalanche would make the postseason. Since Jan. 4, however, they’ve won 27 of 40 games, zoomed up the standings and are now tied for the lead atop the Central Division. Nobody wants to face the defending champions in the playoffs.