The hint from the prime minister could hardly have been clearer. Taunted by Ed Miliband about what a bad week it had been for the government, David Cameron pointed to evidence in the past week that inflation and unemployment were both down, adding that "the good news will keep on coming".
That "good news" will come in the form of the announcement on Thursday that Britain has emerged from a double-dip recession spanning nine months from the autumn of 2011 to the middle of 2012.
For George Osborne, in particular, the release of the growth figures will be a blessed relief. Last week, for fans of the Beatles, he was the chancellor without a ticket to ride. This week he hopes to be able to say that after a hard day's night fixing a hole in the budget deficit, things are finally getting better.
Whether the economy really has turned the corner remains to be seen. Sir Mervyn King sounded a note of caution this week when he said the recovery was proceeding at a "slow and uncertain" pace. The governor, a member of the long and winding road school of thought, said: "At this stage, it is difficult to know whether some of the recent more positive signs will persist."
City analysts agree that the figures for third-quarter growth should not be taken at face value. That's because part of the boost will come from the bounceback from the lost output caused by the extra bank holiday in the second quarter. The ONS estimates that the celebrations to mark the Queen's diamond jubilee knocked about 0.5 percentage points off GDP. Official data for both the manufacturing and services sectors shows that this was recouped in July and August.
Indeed, had it not been for June's double bank holiday, activity would probably have been flat or slightly up in the second quarter because the latest ONS estimates show that even with the diamond jubilee effect output was down by 0.4%.
The second complicating factor is the effect of the Olympics. Hosting the London Games will add 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points to growth in the third quarter, even though there is scant evidence to suggest it resulted in the boost to tourism that organisers hoped for, and there is evidence that some parts of the economy – online shopping, for example – suffered as Britain was mesmerised by the medal-winning exploits of Jessica Ennis and Bradley Wiggins.
Instead, the boost will come from the sale of tickets, all of which will be counted towards growth in the third quarter even though the purchases were spread out over the previous 12 months. The ONS announced long in advance that it would be using this method, so it cannot be accused of cooking the books.
Finally, there is a chance of what might be called real growth, to the extent that it is not the result of a trampoline effect or a one-off factor. Those looking for green shoots of recovery can point to sales of new cars, showing robust year-on-year growth, and high street spending rose by 1% in the third quarter.
Consumer confidence remains weak but, with unemployment and inflation both falling, less weak than it was. Spending power has been supported by compensation payments from banks over the mis-selling of payment protection insurance.
On the downside, the housing market remains in the doldrums, firms are reluctant to invest and the eurozone crisis is having a dampening impact on exporters. The brutal squeeze on real incomes caused by inflation running well ahead of wage growth has come to an end, but a period of strong growth in spending power looks some way off. Recent business surveys – including Wednesday's CBI quarterly industrial trends survey – have been downbeat.
Assuming a 0.5 point bounceback from the depressed activity in the second quarter and 0.1 to 0.2 points from the Olympics, anything less than a 0.6% or 0.7% increase in gross domestic product will be seen by the City as a disappointment. A figure of 1% or higher would exceed expectations and put paid to any prospect of further stimulus from the Bank of England.
One thing is certain: the figures – whether good, bad or indifferent – will not end the political debate about the state of the economy. Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said even if the economy were to grow by 1% in the third quarter, it would only take the level of activity back to where it was a year ago. "The question is what the underlying growth rate of the economy is when we strip out the one-off Olympics and bank holiday effects," she said. "What really matters for jobs, living standards and the deficit is whether there is a strong and sustained recovery and whether and how we can catch up all the ground we have lost over the last two years."
