This article is part of the Guardian’s Euro 2016 Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for France. theguardian.com is running previews from three countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 10 June.
When the German coaching staff met this spring in preparation for the Euro 2016 they were, as usual, joined by Urs Siegenthaler. The former Swiss coach and player travels around the world on behalf of the DFB and keeps a keen eye on the latest developments in international football. He is also a good friend of Joachim Löw. They talked at length about Leicester City and Atlético Madrid and what their respective success means in regard to the tournament in France.
“The game is undergoing a bit of a change and we’re still struggling to catch up. We’ll have to develop strategies to cope”, Siegenthaler said. What he meant is that at the tournament of 24 teams the German side will have to deal with a lot of so-called underdogs trying to emulate Leicester and Atlético. These teams will not necessarily go into a defensive shell, but they will be happy to mostly relinquish possession to their opponents.
The evolution of the German team under Joachim Löw in the last few years was based on having the ball as much as possible. They preferred a style reliant on possession and a strong midfield. These days, however, a lot of teams are not all that bothered with having the ball. They leave the passing game to their opponents and focus on quick counterattacks.
As a result, the international game has seen the renaissance of the traditional centre forward, and with it the return of Mario Gomez after an absence of almost two years. Often injured and written off by many as a technically limited one-dimensional striker, Gomez is back after a strong season at Besiktas that saw him win the honours as the leading scorer in the Turkish league as well as the championship. Gomez is a proper No9 in the era of the false 9, a man who brings the sledgehammer when all else fails.
Having Gomez on board gives Löw the option of deploying a traditional three-man-attack with proper wingers. And do not be surprised if Löw continues another experiment: Their 4-1 win against Italy in March saw Germany going back to a three-man defence. So the traditional 4-2-3-1 could transform into a 4-3-3 or even a 3-4-3. “The air is getting thinner. We are the world champions, it’s all about the little things now”, says Siegenthaler. But above all, it will be about finding ways to crack defensive opponents without falling victim to the likes of Jamie Vardy.
Probable starting XI
Which Germany player will take everyone by surprise at Euro 2016?
Julian Weigl has been a sensation in his first Bundesliga season with Borussia Dortmund. At the Euro he may get to showcase his impeccable passing ability and perseverance at an even bigger stage.
Which player could be a disappointment?
Bastian Schweinsteiger rarely disappoints – as long as he is healthy. Unfortunately, the veteran has been injured more often than not in recent years and may see only limited action in France, if any.
How far do you think Germany will go and why?
As hard to predict as never before. The potential is immense, but the performances since the World Cup have been largely pedestrian. Oh, well: semi-final.
Christoph Biermann writes for 11Freunde.
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