They often say that goals are like buses. You wait 18 games for one, and then two come along. Dominic Calvert-Lewin was on the scoresheet in Everton’s important 1-0 win over Burnley on Saturday, having struck in the 1-1 draw at Newcastle in midweek. The victory against Burnley at the weekend ended Everton’s run of 13 games without a win – their longest stretch without a victory since 1937. The result became even more significant on Monday, when the club was hit with a two-point deduction, which leaves them just two points above the relegation zone.
It’s been a season to forget for Calvert-Lewin. The 27-year-old’s goal at the weekend was just his fifth of the campaign – and his first since 29 October. And, unlike in previous seasons, he cannot blame injuries. Calvert-Lewin has made 27 appearances for Everton in the league this season and he only has one assist to go with his five goals. His profligacy has been one of the reasons that Everton are looking over their shoulders with seven games to play.
Everton’s biggest shortcoming this season has been their failure to hit the back of the net. They have scored just 32 goals in 31 games – only Sheffield United (30) have scored fewer. Luton Town – who are in the relegation zone – have scored 45. Everton’s xG under performance of 18.24 is far and away the biggest in the Premier League. Sean Dyche’s side do not struggle to create chances – their tally of 9.2 key passes per game is the 12th best in the division – but they are not converting them. You might say they can’t finish for, well, toffee.
Calvert-Lewin is the guiltiest culprit. His xG under performance of 6.03 is the biggest in the division. If he were matching his xG, Calvert-Lewin would have 11 goals to his name – more than double the number he has actually scored. To be fair to Calvert-Lewin, he is not the only Everton forward struggling for goals. The club signed Beto from Udinese for £26m last summer and he has only scored three league goals (and no assists) in 26 appearances. Youssef Chermiti, who arrived from Sporting Lisbon for £15m, is yet to find the target in 12 appearances.
The good news for Calvert-Lewin is that 40% of his goals this season have arrived in his last two matches, which gives him something to build on. That’s not to say he is back by any stretch. His equaliser at St James’ Park came from the penalty spot, though you have to applaud his confidence to step up in the 88th minute, in one of the more intimidating atmospheres in the Premier League, and do his bit for the team. His winner against Burnley was hardly a textbook finish. The goalkeeper Arijanet Muric dawdled in possession, Calvert-Lewin closed him down and blocked his attempted clearance into the back of the net. Not that Everton or Calvert-Lewin will care.
If anything, it’s high time Everton enjoyed some luck. They are not a bad side. They have the fourth best defensive record in the Premier League this season, having shipped just 42 goals. Tottenham, Aston Villa and Manchester United – who are competing for a place in the Champions League – have all conceded more. They just need to start scoring.
The hope now is that Calvert-Lewin’s recent goals will breed the confidence required to help stave off relegation. No matter how the goals come, strikers thrive off hitting the back of the net and Everton will be praying this kicks off a goal scoring streak to boost their chances of survival.
It’s frustrating for both player and club because Calvert-Lewin is, to an extent, an archetypal Dyche forward. He is strong in the air and is a handful for opposition defences. The issue is that Dyche has the striker chasing down long, hopeful punts upfield, which is a huge waste of his talent. It’s no coincidence that Calvert-Lewin’s best performances came under Carlo Ancelotti, who simply told the forward to remain in the penalty area if he wanted to score.
Evidently, Dyche is not utilising Calvert-Lewin to his full potential. He has made 112 touches in the opposition box – fewer than wingers Kaoru Mitoma (145), Anthony Gordon (131) and Brennan Johnson (127), to name three. That being said, it’s not as though Calvert-Lewin has been short of goal scoring chances. He has taken 60 shots this season – the 18th highest in the league – and he has missed 13 big chances, the sixth most in the league. Dyche needs to find a tactic that works for Calvert-Lewin and helps him replicate his form in the 2020-21 season, when he scored 21 goals under Ancelotti.
Having scored a couple of goals, Calvert-Lewin will be excited about Everton’s run-in. With matches against Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United on the horizon, it is a good time to be back among the goals. Everton fans are hoping this isn’t a flash in the pan but rather the start of a goal glut that will secure the club’s top-flight status.
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