Labour has cut sharply into the Conservatives' lead as voters turn to the government to protect them from the economic storm, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. It shows a seven-point drop in Tory support since last month, narrowing the gap between the two main parties from 15 points to just five.
Today's poll is in line with other recent surveys, making it clear that the opposition has crashed back to reality after a triumphant summer, and David Cameron is not seen as the man to revive the economy. The results will inevitably fuel talk of an early election next February or in the spring, although Labour is still well short of the sort of support needed to retain its majority.
The Tories remain ahead in terms of votes, but can no longer be confident of picking up more seats than Labour.
Conservative support has fallen to 38%, from 45% in last month's Guardian/ICM poll. Labour has climbed three to 33% – the highest in an ICM poll since April. The Liberal Democrats are on 19%, up one – a more resilient performance than in some other surveys. Other parties account for 10% between them, up two.
The five-point Tory lead is still substantial – wider than the gap between the two big parties in the 2005 election. But the race has not been so close since spring.
The fall pushes the Conservative party below the symbolic 40% mark – above which the party is all but assured of winning the largest number of seats in the Commons.
Today's figures are strikingly similar to results from both the December 2007 and December 2006 Guardian/ICM polls. In 2006, when Tony Blair was still prime minister, Tory support was 40% and Labour was on 32%. A year later, the gap was 39-34. Today it is 38-33. That suggests that the underlying difference in support between the parties is about five points. Things have not got better for Labour, but they have not got worse either.
In particular, voters are sceptical of the opposition's ability to handle the economy. Asked to compare Cameron and Gordon Brown on a series of characteristics, Brown pulls ahead by 11 points as the person most likely to get the economy back on track. He scores 35% against 24% for Cameron.
On other factors – some of them assessed by ICM in September 2006, shortly before Brown became party leader – the gap is narrower.
Cameron leads Brown by four points, 34-30, as the man with the most potential as prime minister.
Elsewhere Brown mostly has the advantage. He leads by four points, 32-28, as the leader most likely to take the right decisions when the going gets tough. That question was also a strength for him when it was asked in 2006, when he led by seven points.
Voters also think Brown is the most honest leader – leading 26-21. That is a big change from 2006, shortly after the Brownite attempted leadership coup tarnished his reputation, when Cameron led 27-19.
Brown is also seen as the leader most likely to understand people's concerns – his advantage is 28-25.
The Conservative focus on the environment has paid dividends for Cameron on that issue; he is ahead 26-23 as the leader most likely to tackle climate change – although the poll does not show whether that will encourage people to vote for him. The economy appears to be the crucial factor in driving party support at present.
