Conservative MPs are warning that their party risks being wiped out in the red wall by an emerging threat on its right flank, amid alarm after two disastrous byelection losses.
The right of the party is seizing on the dire results in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – two supposedly safe Tory seats – to demand a harder line on immigration and tax cuts designed to nullify the threat posed by Reform UK, the successor to the Brexit party.
With senior Tories stating a “battle for the soul of the party” is now under way, the right is also targeting chancellor Jeremy Hunt this weekend. They accuse him of being “captured by the Treasury” in his opposition to tax cuts which they blame for loss of loyalty among core supporters.
Reform UK only took a small share of the vote in both byelections last week. However, Tory MPs on the right who want more radical conservative policies point out that Reform’s level of support in both constituencies was greater than the Labour majority. Reform is now planning to focus its efforts on pro-Brexit seats held by the Conservatives.
It comes as Richard Tice, leader of Reform UK, told the Observer he wanted to help “smash the Tory party”. He also gave a cast-iron pledge that his party would not stand aside for the Tories in any seats, as the Brexit party did at the last election. Asked about the chances of a pre-election deal, he said: “Zero. Seriously, you could offer me five million quid and a peerage and I still wouldn’t do it.
“We’re delighted with ensuring that we have stopped the Tories from winning either of those two byelections,” he added. “They deserve to be punished. Tamworth is essentially a strong Brexit, red wall-style seat. That is where we are heavily targeting our focus because, of course, we used to be the Brexit party. So we’re pleased we’ve helped punish the Tories. There’s always more work to be done.
“Sunak has nibbled away at some of our policies. He’s nibbled away at net zero, but that doesn’t really mean anything. He should have scrapped the whole of HS2 – we’ve always been against that madness. He talks about stopping the woke nonsense, but he’s not going to. He talks about scrapping inheritance tax, but they’ve done that before. No one believes he’ll actually do it. It’s just not enough. If you’re going to do any job in life, for heaven’s sake, do it properly, or don’t do it at all.”
Tice said that he was already talking to donors about Reform’s election campaign and warned his candidates to resist any pleas from the Tories not to run. “People still don’t believe me when I say we’re standing everywhere in England, Scotland, Wales,” he said.
“I will just keep saying it until they actually see it on nomination day. I repeat again that there are no deals with the Tories. We stand everywhere. Democracy is better served that way, then the people can have their say.”
He said that more involvement from Nigel Farage next year would be “massively helpful”, but that would be up to Farage, who is currently the party’s honorary president.
Tories on the right are now using the threat from Reform as a tool to lever the party further in their direction. One former Tory minister said: “It shows that the failure to deliver on migration means they [Reform UK] alone could hand Labour the red wall. You can easily say they underperformed in Tamworth and that the Conservatives’ saving grace is that Richard Tice is leading Reform, and not Nigel Farage.”
A former cabinet minister said: “I think that puts Rishi under a considerable amount of personal pressure… what was interesting was the intervention of Reform. That’s probably because voters are not satisfied that what Sunak’s delivering are Conservative policies. Just at the moment, it doesn’t look particularly Conservative, especially in terms of the tax burden.
“Imagine what the impact would have been of Nigel Farage leading that and campaigning in the way that he’s capable of doing – it is total wipeout. I have a suspicion that Farage may well enter the fray sometime in the spring next year. Richard’s proven that they can actually make the difference.”
While a small number of Tory MPs oppose Sunak as leader, Hunt, a senior figure on the liberal wing of the party, has become the prime target for internal critics. “If Sunak does [shift to the right] it means, frankly, replacing Jeremy Hunt,” said one senior Tory. “It’s fairly clear that Jeremy Hunt has been captured by the Treasury.”
However, the mainstream of the party has also been bombarding Tory whips with messages stating they are doomed if the Conservatives are seen as a right-wing pressure group. “You will start to see the battle for the soul of the party starting now,” said one former minister. “No one will be disloyal to the leader, so [they] will attack other senior ministers as a proxy to advance their position.
“Whips have had lots of messages saying we need a tone that doesn’t make us look like a rightwing sect. Lurching to the right to pick up that 5% [voting for Reform] will only be negative in the blue wall and lose us more seats there. All these colleagues need reminding that elections are only won from the common/centre ground of politics, not by leaving that ground.”
Tory officials are said to be looking at tax cuts ahead of the election, including a reduction in stamp duty or a cut to inheritance tax. However, Hunt has been clear that he cannot cut taxes in the forthcoming autumn statement, given the fragile state of the economy.