Iran's Saeed Jalili: anointed successor or convenient bogeyman?

A cosmetic touch-up augmented the forehead of the arch-conservative presidential candidate Saeed Jalili during the recent series of televised debates leading up to Iran's election, on 14 June.

As the Islamic government's 48-year-old nuclear negotiator elaborated on his plans to resolve the country's diplomatic and socio-economic quandaries by resuscitating the ideals of the 1979 revolution, viewers at home noted the absence of a telltale mark at the centre of his forehead.

"It's like Harry Potter and his scar," one voter observed. "He doesn't want to let people know he's The One."

Impressed into Jalili's face is the shape of a turbah, the small earthen stone Shia Muslims traditionally rest their heads on during daily prayers. For the fervently pious, the indentation is considered a badge of honour. But for those in charge of Jalili's public image, it is something to be concealed, powdered and covered by a lock of grey hair – an indication that the candidate's religious zeal is "too scary", as another viewer said, "even for Iranian TV".

Known for his monastic lifestyle and unquestioning devotion to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Jalili was touted as a frontrunner in an election in which loyalty and tractability appear to trump the more conventional leadership qualities displayed by other conservative candidates.

Former associates say he is a devout believer whose education and background more befit a seminary than Iran's intricate corridors of power. While those in the top echelons of the country's ruling elite are typically more Machiavellian than devout, Jalili's faith is authentic. "With him, it's not just rhetoric," said a source from the diplomatic community. "He really is a principlist."

These characteristics are thought to ingratiate Jalili with Khamenei, who strives to avoid a repeat of the insubordination he experienced with the outgoing president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But as election day draws near, observers are questioning the role Jalili is ordained to play. Is he the anointed, obedient successor to Ahmadinejad, or is he a convenient bogeyman released by the regime to frighten moderate voters into participating in an election they may otherwise have boycotted?

"Jalili is consciously constructed as a scarecrow to put the resigned, indifferent and undecided voters in panic and to achieve a high turnout," said Nima Mina, a senior lecturer in Iranian studies at SOAS, the University of London. He compares Jalili's role to that of the French far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in that country's 2002 presidential election, which saw a game-changing turnout by leftwing voters opposed to Le Pen's policies. "To the leader, it would not matter which of the candidates is successful in the end," Mina adds. "Jalili is a faithful soldier, and is willing to endure it all."

In 2009, Khamenei experienced the most serious challenge to his leadership in his 24 years as supreme leader. Millions of voters, joined by prominent politicians and religious figures, disputed the result of the presidential election, precipitating a violent crackdown from which many voters and reformist politicians never recovered.

Though keen on preventing such errors this time around, Khamenei is stressing the importance of voter participation to give his increasingly isolated and economically ailing regime a much-needed legitimacy boost. In a speech on 7 June commemorating the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, he urged Iranians to vote, warning: "They [enemies of Iran] wish either a low turnout in the election or sedition to emerge afterwards." The need to engineer a well-attended election may be the supreme leader's reason for tacitly supporting Jalili, if only to energise the masses against his fundamentalist worldview, analysts say.

Born in Masshad, a place of holy importance for the world's Shias, Jalili boasts a lifelong record of unflinching sacrifice and service to the Islamic republic. Near the end of Iran's bloody war with Iraq, the then 21-year-old injured his right leg in an offensive against Basra known as Operation Karbala 5. In Sahrai hospital, in the city of Shalamcheh, medical staff were unable to treat the leg owing to a dearth of supplies, and were forced to amputate. Jalili is thus considered a jaanbaaz, someone upon whom is conferred a type of elevated status because of their suffering in the "holy defence" against Saddam Hussein's forces.

These veteran credentials make Jalili the choice of some of the country's most radical cohorts. Kayhan, the influential daily newspaper closely aligned with Khamenei, has described him as a "super-Hezbollahi" – a good old-fashioned revolution-era ideologue.

Putting religious ideals into political practice was also the main focus of Jalili's education at Tehran's Imam Sadeq University, where his thesis explored the "foreign policy of the Prophet". Originally an all-male institution, the university blends the teachings of the seminaries found in the religious city of Qom with traditional academia to educate a new prototype of pious technocrats. The goal, said one former faculty member, was to "breed students that think like the nezaam" (the ruling establishment) and feed them into the foreign ministry and media.

In keeping with his theology-tinged education, Jalili recently gained the endorsement of Ayatollah Mezbah Yazdi, 79, a cleric from Qom and an influential force among the powerful Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). In 2005, Yazdi described himself as the spiritual father to Ahmadinejad, who eventually won that election.

In addition, Jalili is favoured by a younger group of disciples of Mesbah's Jebhe Paydari (Steadfast Front). Members of this newly formed fundamentalist grouping identify themselves as supporters of the "true Ahmadinejad", harking back to the platform that first won him the presidency in 2005.

"Jalili is immensely popular among some extremist young and religious types who support his rigid world view when it comes to Iran's nuclear programme," said Arash Ghafouri, a campaign strategist. "Many fans promote him on weblogs as well as pages on social networks such as Facebook … They have some offices around the country and campaign for Jalili in various cities and countries."

In this regard, Jalili differs from another candidate, the former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, whose rivalry with Jalili intensified on Monday after the withdrawal of the conservative candidate Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel. Appealing to an older faction of rural and middle-class voters, Velayati, 67, has more political experience than Jalili, a strength he deployed with startling force during the third round of televised debates, last Sunday.

"You were in charge of the nuclear case for several years, and we haven't taken a single step forward," he told Jalili, criticising his staunchly anti-western "resistance" policy as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator. "Diplomacy isn't about toughness or stubbornness."

On the same day, Velayati won the endorsement of the prominent Qom Seminary Scholars Association, casting further doubt over Jalili's frontrunner status.

"Many issues in Iran right now are directly related to the Iran nuclear programme, and Jalili is one of the representatives of this plan," said Ghafouri. "Although whatever Jalili did was what the supreme leader wanted, the average Iranian is not satisfied with the consequences of the severe sanctions. To be elected president, a candidate should prove himself able to fix [what] the country is faced with."

In an increasingly competitive campaign, in which the sanctions-plagued economy is a crucial factor, Jalili is failing to present a coherent solution to the problem he is accused of perpetuating. His "seven-point plan" to address the issue flounders in vague suggestions, such as "relying on the rules of the Islamic economy", and has been criticised by journalists for "failing to adhere to any known economic model".

Such mediocrity appears to be a lifelong trait for Jalili, whose sole distinguishing quality – according to a source who recalls his student days at Imam Sadeq – is piousness. The source said: "He wasn't our top guy. He's not an intellect. He's not even a top diplomat. But he's a true believer."