Why Each Team Will and Won’t Win the Euro 2024 and Copa América Finals

It’s not often that a Sunday in July is one of the best sports days of the entire calendar year. Three different continents have played in and been captivated by the summer of international soccer for the past month, and the two major tournaments come to a close in Berlin and Miami on Sunday. Spain and England will face off for the men’s European Championship in Berlin, 329 days after the two nations played for the women’s World Cup in Australia (Spain won 1-0) and 466 years after the Spanish Armada planned an invasion of England in 1558.

Later on Sunday, Argentina and Lionel Messi will try for a third consecutive major international trophy under manager Lionel Scaloni as they face upstart Colombia in the Copa América final. The Colombians haven’t lost any of their past 28 matches. Their last loss was to Argentina on February 1, 2022. Colombia outplayed South American heavyweights Brazil and Uruguay to reach the final, and Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium is set to be the last major global soccer match in the U.S. ahead of the 2026 World Cup.

Here’s why all four teams playing on Sunday in the two international finals will and won’t win their respective matches:

European Championship Final: Spain Vs. England, 3 p.m. ET

Why Spain will win on Sunday: It has been the best team all tournament

Not only has Spain won all six of its matches in the tournament, but it’s also played considerably tougher opponents than England. Placed into a difficult group with Croatia and Italy, the Spanish brushed aside both rather routinely in the opening two matches. Germany and France entered the tournament as the second and third favorites, respectively, to win it all, and Spain dispatched both with 2-1 victories in the last two rounds. There were dicey moments—Marc Cucurella’s extra-time handling in the box could have been a penalty, and France led after just nine minutes on Tuesday—but Spain came through in both matches.

Spain has gotten considerably better individual performances from its stars than England. According to WhoScored’s player performance ratings, Spain has the first-, third-, fourth-, and 10th-best players in Euro 2024. Dani Olmo, who has started only two of Spain’s six matches, has been the best player at the tournament by its metrics. Olmo started and assisted Ferran Torres in Spain’s final group game win against Albania, and he then came off the bench to score late in Spain’s 4-1 rout of Georgia. When Pedri was forced off with a knee injury eight minutes into the quarterfinal against Germany, Olmo scored the opener and assisted the winning goal off the bench. He continually emerged in the perfect spots in the penalty area and again scored the winner against France. Lamine Yamal has dazzled with a goal and three assists at 16 years old—he’ll be 17 by kickoff on Sunday—and the midfield pairing of Rodri and Fabián Ruiz is much more assured than England’s rotating door of midfielders next to Declan Rice this tournament. The balance of Yamal on one wing and 21-year-old Nico Williams on the other has made Spain a nightmare to defend. You have to go all the way down to the 18th spot before Jude Bellingham pops up as England’s top-rated player at this tournament.

Why Spain will lose on Sunday: Discontinuing the attack after taking leads is a dangerous approach

Spain was dominating the match against Germany in the quarterfinal when Olmo scored a 51st-minute opening goal to put Spain ahead. Germany’s midfield man-marking system had largely been effective at stopping high-quality shots, but Olmo found space at the edge of the penalty area, received the pass from Yamal, and finished past Manuel Neuer. Spain attempted just one shot for the remainder of regulation, a long-range effort from Ruiz. Germany attempted nine shots as the Spanish invited more and more German pressure, including a Niclas Fullkrug shot from close range.

Once Florian Wirtz eventually found the equalizer in the 89th minute, Spain’s attempt to kill off the game had failed. Its personnel isn’t really built to defend deep without the ball, even if this version of Spain has been less possession dominant than past iterations. Spain did find more attacking impetus in extra time once tied again, but choosing to bunker in isn’t the optimal strategy for killing off a game.

Spain repeated this game plan in its semifinal victory against France. Once Olmo scored to put the Spanish up 2-1 in the 25th minute, Spain attempted three low-quality shots for the remainder of the match. Spain did a considerably better job keeping possession of the ball as a means of defense against France—Les Bleus produced six total shots and 0.51 expected goals in the second half while trailing. But Spain’s reluctance to continue attacking with leads will keep the door open for England to play its way back into the final should the English fall behind. England has now demonstrated the skill of using its substitutes to change games by coming from behind in each of its three knockout matches. It’s easy to envision a scenario where Spain outplays England for most of the match, but England hangs around due to Spain’s suboptimal reluctance to kill off the game with a second goal.

Why England will win on Sunday: Gareth Southgate and the team of destiny vibes

Southgate has long been criticized as England’s manager. Even though he oversaw the most successful period of English international soccer ever—the 2018 World Cup semifinal, 2021 Euro final, 2022 World Cup quarterfinal, and 2024 Euro final—something has always been missing with Southgate’s England. It has constantly played down to inferior teams. It often looks brittle tactically, takes very few risks, and underperforms its actual talent level. Despite all the attacking talent on the team sheet, England has struggled to create chances throughout the tournament.

For all of the deserved criticisms of Southgate, he also has strengths that make him well suited to play the underdog role and manage the tension and pressure of a European final. The English national team has always been a pressure cooker ready to explode at any moment. The rabid fan base, the often wildly unrealistic expectations, and the constant shortcomings make it a nearly impossible job. It takes a particular personality to counteract and balance that pressure and tension. Southgate has shown through his man management, calm demeanor, and tournament identity that England will always be around at the business end of the tournament.

He has built the English to be very tough to beat, even if they are relatively easy to play against. Even when they were outplayed in the last final, they came within a couple of penalty kicks of glory. His substitutions in this tournament have saved England in consecutive matches. Southgate is an imperfect coach, but England has the depth to win this on Sunday, and his decisions to take off Harry Kane in successive matches and rely on Trent Alexander-Arnold to take the winning penalty in the quarterfinal and Ollie Watkins to score the winner in the semifinal show an unwavering belief in his players that could just bring the trophy home.

Why England will lose on Sunday: Spain is far superior in its pressing and out-of-possession structure

Against the Netherlands, England took a few more risks in and out of possession than it usually does under Southgate. The ease with which the Dutch played through the English when they attempted to press high up the pitch should raise some red flags about how the English would hold up against an elite midfield and passing juggernaut like Spain. The Netherlands man-marked the English midfield throughout the match, and Rice took more chances getting forward in the opening 45 minutes.

England enjoyed an athleticism advantage and a numerical midfield advantage in the first 35 minutes of that match. While it resulted in England’s best attacking stretch of the tournament, the Dutch constantly threatened on the break and played through the English press. The Dutch added an extra midfielder when Memphis Depay left the match injured, and England again struggled to generate chances.

At one point in the second half, Rice was the tip of the spear in pressing the Dutch and applied pressure to Dutch goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen in possession. The Dutch easily broke through and created a few chances as a direct result of England’s attempts to press. Compare this to Spain’s performance against Italy: The Spanish counter-press was so suffocating that Italy could barely escape its own half, and you see where Spain is the considerably better out-of-possession side. As much as Southgate is lauded for his substitutions and man management, his tactical shortcomings may cause England to come up short against a fellow elite side.

Copa América Final: Argentina Vs. Colombia, 8 p.m. ET

Why Argentina will win the final: Emiliano Martínez’s penalty prowess

Argentina lost penalty shoot-outs to Chile in the 2015 and 2016 Copa América finals. Now that Martínez is between the pipes, Argentina has won its last four shoot-outs in the last three major tournaments. Even after Messi missed his panenka off the crossbar against Ecuador to open the quarterfinal shoot-out, Martínez immediately flipped the script with consecutive saves on Ecuador’s first two shots.

There’s an inherently random nature to shoot-outs in the long term and bigger picture, but the aura around Martínez in penalty shoot-outs is bordering on inevitable and invincible right now. Even though penalty kicks give a massive advantage to the taker in a vacuum, that expectation of a make only builds pressure on the kicker. Martínez taunts his opponents before kicks. He dances and celebrates after saves. There will be 30 minutes of extra time if the match is tied before penalties, and you have to wonder whether Colombia will feel more pressure to win it before penalties, given Martínez’s record.

Why Argentina will lose the final: Lionel Messi hasn’t been close to his best in this tournament

Messi scored two goals in the final and won player of the tournament at the World Cup 19 months ago when Argentina beat France in an epic finale. Since his move to Inter Miami and MLS last summer, Messi hasn’t had a lot of opportunities to play against the best players in the world and keep up his top-level form. Whether that or his nagging groin injury is the cause, Messi hasn’t been at his best in this tournament. He scored his first goal on a deflection in front of Canada’s goal in the 2-0 semifinal win. The Argentina attack relies on his elite creation abilities in the center of the pitch. They don’t get a ton of attack from the wings, and none of the other midfielders have close to his level of vision and forward passing range.

Messi didn’t play against Peru in the final group stage match, and his two other matches against CONMEBOL sides resulted in two shots total against Chile and Ecuador.

Messi attempted six and 11 take-ons against Canada and Chile, respectively, in the first two matches of the tournament. Since returning from the groin issue, he’s attempted four in two matches, and none have succeeded. If Argentina doesn’t have a fully fit Messi, that levels the playing field in this final.

Why Colombia will win the final: James Rodríguez

Rodríguez is an international soccer cheat code. Few people on planet Earth are having a better summer than the Colombian captain. Ten years after he broke onto the global scene with an incredible World Cup in Brazil, Rodríguez is almost certain to win player of the tournament. He’s not playing at the elite club level anymore because his game isn’t suited to the pressing and running demands of top-level European football week in and week out, but his magical left foot has carried Colombia into this final.

Colombia has scored 12 goals in five matches in this tournament. Rodríguez has scored one of them and assisted six more. He had two first-half assists in the demolition of Panama and then assisted Jefferson Lerma on the goal against Uruguay, which put his team into the final.

The margins are tiny in international tournaments, and Rodríguez’s set piece delivery is the type of skill that seems so simple in theory but is almost impossible to find consistently.

Why Colombia will lose the final: Fatigue

Colombia’s second-half performance against Uruguay was nothing short of a marvel. The Colombians embraced all of the tactics to kill off that game. Once Daniel Muñoz picked up a second yellow and was sent off just before halftime, it seemed a very tall task for the Colombians to survive the inevitable Uruguayan second-half onslaught down a man. They defended deep at times, throwing bodies around to block shots. Luis Díaz ran around tirelessly as the lone attacker, and Luis Sinisterra continued that once Díaz ran out of gas. The Colombians picked their moments to press and attack in transition, creating and then missing two golden chances to ice the game with a second goal. The Colombians feigned the severity of a few injuries, and the bench celebrated winning free kicks as if it had scored a goal. They expended an immense amount of energy in winning that match against Uruguay, which at times felt like more of a rugby match in the center of the pitch.

Now they have to repeat that performance against a more talented Argentina side with considerably more depth, an extra day of rest, and a considerably easier semifinal. It’ll be really difficult to keep the energy up, but the cauldron of noise and spirit from Colombian fans in Hard Rock Stadium is sure to be a spectacle that may just push them across the line on Sunday.