Watchability Rankings for the 2024 Euro and Copa América Quarterfinals

The monthlong international soccer bonanza has now reached the business end of both tournaments, as the European Championship and Copa América have concluded their group stages.

The favorites in both tournaments have had their fair share of struggles, but all top four teams in both tournaments qualified for the quarterfinals. The second-tier contenders—the United States, Belgium, and Italy—are out, and there are just 15 matches left in the two tournaments combined.

From July 4 to 6, eight quarterfinal matchups will be played in Germany and the United States. I ranked all eight in terms of watchability, using three different criteria.

To make this list as objective as possible, I’ve assigned rankings from 1 to 8 for three different categories and then used an average to compile the official watchability rankings. The three categories are pre-match narrative aura, overall competitiveness, and in-match excitement. The narrative ranking is determined by how important the match is in the context of the tournament and the current arcs of the top players and each team. Competitiveness is based on how evenly matched the two sides are. Excitement is judged by how likely you’d be to show this match to a non-die-hard soccer fan. While Portugal vs. France has a great narrative and feels like it could be evenly matched, the game itself lags behind in projected excitement. (I’ll explain why below.) Compare that to Netherlands vs. Turkey, which has less narrative drama but is almost guaranteed to be an exciting viewing experience.

One last key distinction: the lower the average score, the better the matchup. Think of it as being closer to “no. 1.” In the case of ties, excitement rank was the tiebreaker.

Here are the results:

8. Colombia vs. Panama, Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, FS1

Narrative rank: 8
Competitiveness rank: 8
Excitement rank: 8
Average watchability score: 8.0

What a missed opportunity for soccer in the United States and the men’s national team that this match isn’t the Americans in a rematch against Colombia. A holiday weekend during a slow sports period and a prime-time slot would have been a huge opportunity to build momentum and excitement leading into the 2026 World Cup. Instead, Colombia’s matchup with Panama appears last in this list.

Colombia came from down 1-0 against Brazil in Tuesday’s Group D finale to earn a 1-1 draw and top the group. Colombia avoids Uruguay and gets the easiest quarterfinal matchup on paper. The draw with Brazil extended the Colombians’ unbeaten run to 26 matches, and Los Cafeteros’ underlying performance was even more impressive. Colombia held Brazil to just seven total shot attempts, including one from inside the penalty area. Brazil totaled just 0.32 expected goals, meaning that the Colombians conceded just 1.3 xG across the three group stage matches, second fewest of all 16 teams (after Uruguay).

When you combine its sturdy defensive work rate with the creativity of James Rodriguez, Colombia has solidified itself among the tournament favorites, along with Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil. Panama’s escape from Group C over the United States had more to do with the Tim Weah red card than with the play of the Panamanians, and their mostly uncompetitive performance against Uruguay doesn’t offer much optimism about their chances of pulling off an upset here.

7. England vs. Switzerland, Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, Fox

Narrative rank: 5
Competitiveness rank: 4
Excitement rank: 6
Average watchability score: 5.0

England was “Saved by the Bellingham,” to quote Fox commentator Ian Darke after the last-minute Jude Bellingham bicycle kick leveled the English with Slovakia on Sunday. England had five great minutes of play and scored twice to overturn the tie and avoid national embarrassment (for now), but Gareth Southgate matches are otherwise tough to watch. The English remain a high-quality defensive side that prioritizes stability and control. Their emphasis on defense resembles that of France. They’re now facing the Switzerland side, which has the ultimate high floor and low ceiling of this tournament; this match is the least appealing of the four Euro quarterfinals.

Switzerland completely dismantled Italy, but I get the sense that that performance had more to do with just how mediocre Italy was than with anything special Switzerland did. The Swiss know what they are: veteran, poised, and solid. But they are not explosive, even if Dan Ndoye has impressed in this tournament and Breel Embolo is back starting at striker. I’m hoping to see some Xherdan Shaqiri for the sake of getting some excitement and intrigue. I’m also looking forward to seeing whether Southgate changes his lineup or tactics to unlock the talent that made England pre-tournament favorites.

6. Venezuela vs. Canada, Friday, 9 p.m. ET, FS1

Narrative rank: 7
Competitiveness rank: 3
Excitement rank: 5
Average watchability score: 5.0

Two of the three surprise quarterfinalists in Copa América should make for an evenly contested match, but Canada’s last two games in group play don’t suggest that this one will be a must-watch. Canada’s matchup with Argentina to begin the tournament was one of the group stage’s more interesting battles, mostly because Canada’s out-of-possession press forced the usually reliable Argentina into a ton of mistakes. Canada didn’t ultimately score, but Les Rouges outplayed Argentina in the first half, earning more expected goals and an equal number of shots. Argentina took control in the second half and cruised to a 2-0 victory.

Canada’s performance against Peru and Chile while playing up a man for most of those matches is why this one ranks lower in the rankings. The Canadians had a huge advantage, which the team could not capitalize on. At the time of the red card in the 59th minute, Peru was outshooting Canada 6-1. Jonathan David scored an excellent goal in transition to win, and then Canada played up a man for 63 minutes against Chile and totaled just nine shots.

Canada had 24 shots in three matches; no other team that made the quarterfinals generated fewer than 36 (Panama). By expected goals conceded, Venezuela and Canada have the worst defenses of the eight teams in the quarterfinals.

It will be interesting to see which team controls more of the ball because both generally prefer to play in transition. This match is just the third meeting between these two nations, and Venezuela hopes to make the semifinal for the first time since 2011. If you’re just mad at the United States Soccer Federation after this tournament, you could root for American Jesse Marsch to have continued success as Canadian manager after the USSF passed on offering him the job to rehire Gregg Berhalter.

5. Argentina vs. Ecuador, Thursday, 9 p.m. ET, Fox

Narrative rank: 4
Competitiveness rank: 7
Excitement rank: 4
Average watchability score: 5.0

Lionel Messi participated in training and is expected to be back for this quarterfinal matchup against Ecuador. A team with the talent of Argentina, headlined by arguably the greatest player of all time, can’t be lower than fifth on this list. Ecuador has a very solid defensive side that is sure to make this game as ugly as possible, and they’ve done exactly that in their last three meetings against Argentina. They played to a 1-1 draw in one of the final 2022 World Cup qualifying matches and Ecuador lost 1-0 in the last two matches in September 2023 and June 2024.

If the game is tied after 90 minutes, then the drama and entertainment of Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez will take over in penalties. The Aston Villa goalkeeper won a penalty shoot-out in the last Copa América and two more in the 2022 World Cup. Without his massive penalty saves, the past three years of Argentine soccer could look considerably different. He’s notorious for his trash talk and exuberant taunting of opponents before and after their spot kicks.

Argentina might not need penalties, but we only get to watch Messi wear that Argentina shirt so many more times, and Ecuador always brings the fight to them.

4. Portugal vs. France, Friday, 3 p.m. ET, Fox

Narrative rank: 1
Competitiveness rank: 5
Excitement rank: 7
Average watchability score: 4.33

This game is a marketing and promotion dream. Cristiano Ronaldo. Kylian Mbappé. A rematch of the 2016 Euro final. Two of the top five teams favored to win this tournament before a ball was even kicked. The buildup to this match has all of the juicy story lines, but the game itself has the potential to be incredibly unexciting to the neutral observer. Portugal and France both played on Monday in the round of 16, and there was one goal scored in their two matches combined, a Belgian own goal that propelled France into this match despite another uninspiring attacking performance from Les Bleus. Ronaldo became a story line of his own during Portugal’s eventual penalty shoot-out win against Slovenia because of his free kick attempts, penalty miss, and emotional moment during the half-time break in extra time.

The entire Portugal attack seems to be built around placating Ronaldo, a 39-year-old striker who is still without a goal in the tournament. Portugal played a fully rotated team, except Ronaldo, in the group finale against Georgia. After dazzling with 38 goals scored in 10 World Cup qualifying matches prior to this tournament, Portugal has failed to score in 210 minutes of play against Georgia and Slovenia.

France has created plenty of expected goals in this tournament, but Les Bleus’ entire attack seems built around hoping that Mbappé produces a moment of magic or Aurélien Tchouaméni scores on one of his strikes from just outside the penalty area. Manager Didier Deschamps is playing a defensive right back, Jules Koundé, plus three defensive midfielders, Tchouaméni, N’Golo Kanté, and Adrien Rabiot. Rabiot is suspended for this one, and Deschamps will likely replace him with Eduardo Camavinga, another defensive midfielder.

France is extremely passive out of possession, which, combined with their defensive prowess, has made them the top defense at the tournament. They haven’t conceded a goal in open play yet—just a penalty to Poland. But the attacking outfit hasn’t quite come together, either, and France has scored three goals—two own goals and a penalty. Unless Portugal scores early and forces France to go for it, I’d expect this match to be rather unexciting, even if it is dramatic and important.

3. Netherlands vs. Turkey, Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, Fox

Narrative Rank: 6
Competitiveness Rank: 6
Excitement Rank: 1
Average Watchability Score: 4.33

No team at Euro 2024 has produced more consistent drama and excitement than Turkey. It began with their wide-open 3-1 victory against Georgia. Georgia hit the crossbar with a chance to equalize late, and then Turkey scored an empty net goal in stoppage time after Georgia brought up its goalie for a corner kick. You could make a case that Turkey has the goal of the tournament (Arda Güler’s wonder strike against Georgia), the mistake of the tournament (their hilarious own goal against Portugal), and the save of the tournament (Mert Günok’s ridiculous save to deny Austria an equalizer in the Round of 16).

Only Georgia has conceded more expected goals than Turkey in this tournament, and now they have to face a Netherlands side that has shown it can be lethal attacking in transition. The Netherlands have clear advantages from a talent and underlying numbers perspective, but if recent history is any indicator, this match has barnburner written all over it. After all, the Netherlands also played an incredible 3-2 game with Austria to conclude the group stage.

The Dutch may have found their best XI in the 3-0 win against Romania on Tuesday, and the win has seemingly done wonders for improving the vibes in the Dutch camp following a shaky group stage.

2. Uruguay vs. Brazil, Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, FS1

Narrative Rank: 2
Competitiveness Rank: 2
Excitement Rank: 3
Average Watchability Score: 2.33

Like Spain and Germany, Uruguay and Brazil is a high enough quality matchup to be the final of this tournament. The match does lose a bit of excitement and aura because of the suspension of Brazilian superstar Vinicius Junior due to yellow-card accumulation, but Brazil and Uruguay are two of the three South American historical superpowers with 24 combined Copa América titles (Argentina has 15). Brazil and Argentina have essentially dominated the confederation for the last six years, and Uruguay and Colombia are looking to crash that party beginning with this tournament. Brazil will likely need to beat Uruguay and Colombia to reach the final and set up a potential rematch from 2021 with Argentina. The path is challenging, because Brazil hasn’t been at its best and is ripe to be picked off.

Not only is Brazil currently sixth out of 10 teams in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, but they also failed to win the group over Colombia because they dropped points in a poor showing against Costa Rica. Unfortunately for Brazil, superstar talisman Neymar Jr. is out of this tournament with an injury. Brazil hasn’t looked nearly as dominant or dynamic without their all-time leading goal scorer, and his torn ACL in a 2-0 defeat to Uruguay in October has changed the dynamic in this matchup.

Uruguay’s revival and embrace of young talent under new manager Marcelo Bielsa has made them the best defensive team in the tournament so far. Uruguay did concede a stoppage time consolation goal to Panama in their opening match, but no team conceded fewer expected goals in the group stage (1.1).

There will be a lot of pressure on the Brazilian midfield to perform under pressure. Uruguay will press as a coordinated unit, and that will leave space in behind. Without Vinicius Junior as the elite outlet he is, Brazil’s midfield has to play better than it did against Colombia if it wants to advance. Ultimately, Uruguay is in better form, has the more reliable midfield and the most dynamic attacking player on the pitch in Darwin Núñez.

1. Spain vs. Germany, Friday, 12 p.m. ET, FS1

Narrative Rank: 3
Competitiveness Rank: 1
Excitement Rank: 2
Average Watchability Score: 2.0

Spain and Germany have been on a quarterfinal collision course from the minute the draw was announced in December. Spain has combined the beautiful passing structures and midfield territorial dominance of generations past with two young, dynamic wingers who are much more direct. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, at 16 and 21 years old, respectively, are two of the tournament’s breakout stars. Spain easily dispatched all four of its opponents thus far and looks like the most complete and in-form team. But they haven’t faced a team near the attacking quality of Germany. And the game is in Stuttgart. Germany has shown some defensive cracks in the underlying metrics, conceding at least one expected goal to Hungary and Denmark. With how both teams like to use possession, like to press, and have established tactical setups, this match will resemble a high-level club match more than any other international match this summer.

This match is good enough to be a final, and while it’s a shame we’re getting it in the quarterfinal, we’re fortunate to see it at all. These two teams met in the 2022 World Cup group stage, but both have considerably improved since then. New managers, small tactical tweaks, new young stars, and so much passing and on-ball quality should make this an early favorite for one of the tournament’s best matches. I’m expecting goals and think both largely untested defenses will struggle to cope on Friday.

Spain and Germany were the two dominant forces in international soccer from 2008-14, and now both can proclaim that they are back with a win. The winner will likely become the favorite in the betting markets to win the whole thing on July 14.