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DAMIEN LANE
Mary Lou McDonald has three big problems to solve before the General Election – but it’ll be difficult circle to square
The working class, on whom Sinn Fein has always heavily leaned, abandoned it in their droves
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THE Shinners must be skittering after the thumping they took in the European and local elections.
The palms are sweaty and the bum cheeks nervously twitching at the very clear message delivered by voters at the ballot box: We don’t trust you to deliver the “change” you’ve been batting on about for the last decade.
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The working class, on whom Sinn Fein has always heavily leaned, abandoned it in their droves.
The progressive left-wing under-40s, who flocked to the Shinners in the last General Election in 2020, thumbed their noses at it this time, returning to the bosom of Labour and the Social Democrats and, to a lesser extent, back into the arms of Fine Gael, resurgent under their new, Duracell-bunny leader Simon Harris.
The only Sinn Fein constituency that stuck by the party was the old tribe of nationalists and staunch republicans. But that rump will only deliver you the 12 per cent they got last Friday, no more.
To put it in perspective, until a few short months ago the Shinners were polling at an extraordinary 32 per cent.
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For it to collapse so precipitously, something fundamental must have happened. Sinn Fein’s straddling-two-stools message on immigration was one reason. Its increasingly stale message promising “change” that was no longer believed, another.
Running too many candidates, believing they’d romp home across the country with ease, yet another. All three combined gave Sinn Fein a bloody nose.
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald was defiant despite her party’s drubbing, maintaining, without much evidence any more (and contrary to the results), that the people of Ireland wanted a government without Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
She said the party would dust itself down, conduct an internal review into the election results, listen to the grassroots, parse what voters were telling them, hone the message and go again for a General Election that now looks likely to be called for October 25. Maybe the bigwigs will, and God’s speed, but it all seems a little too late (three months to reverse the hiding received seems like an impossible mountain to climb).
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Sinn Fein is, in the eyes of large swathes of the electorate, now a busted flush. Its time has come and gone and, with McDonald at the helm, it’s fair to point out that Sinn Fein’s promise of “change” has begun to ring hollow.
She’ll nevertheless cling on as party President because Sinn Fein won’t change horses mid race.
Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald blasts 'Government failures' on immigration as fiery Fine Gael and Greens feud breaks out
The party’s current troubles are stark, but it would be foolish to say its death warrant has been signed. The core message of both elections is just how volatile the Irish electorate has become.
They’ve been a sclerotic lot since the economic crash in late 2008 — and that’s to Sinn Fein’s advantage, but also its disadvantage.
Difficult circle to square
Sinn Fein has ridden the rollercoaster of the recent volatility, with equal success and failure. Remember in June 2019, Sinn Fein got a local elections hiding. Less than nine months later, in the March 2020 General Election, it won the popular vote.
So, who’s to say Sinn Fein won’t reverse last Friday’s result and come up smelling of roses yet again.
There are three big obstacles in Sinn Fein’s way.
Immigration is Mary Lou’s biggest dilemma. The party remains pro-immigration, despite its supporters by a large majority holding anti-immigrant sentiments.
'Traitors' tag
The tricolour was stolen from Sinn Fein by the far Right, which managed small successes in working class Dublin, where the Shinners became the main casualty. The party lost important votes to the far Right, who successfully, if unfairly, branded Sinn Fein “traitors” to the nationalist cause.
What does Mary Lou do to combat that? Does she give in to those Sinn Fein voters who want a harder line on immigration? If she does, she will alienate the other wing of the party’s support, the progressive left, who are pro-immigrant. It is a difficult circle to square, and to come up with a solution in the little time left before a General Election will be extraordinarily difficult.
Fine Gael changed leader two months before the recent elections and the Simon Harris bounce, coupled with his tougher message on immigration, stole even more votes from Sinn Fein. All those supporters lost will be hard to win back.
Party dilemma
Mary Lou’s other, and more pressing dilemma, is the fact most folk have become tone deaf to Sinn Fein’s core message that it is the only party capable of delivering “change”. When you keep batting on about it for so long, even the ones listening most give up.
But what does “change” really mean? How is Sinn Fein going to increase housebuilding, its central promise? How is the party going to reform the health services so they work for people, another key promise? How indeed is Sinn Fein going to ease the cost-of-living burden? And how is it going to make people’s lives better?
None of its manifesto is clear on any of that. The voters aren’t convinced and Mary Lou has damn all time to map out in detail what “change” means.
Thirdly, Sinn Fein got a huge vote at the last General Election but only won a fraction of the seats it could have if it ran more candidates.
Strategy woe
The party strategists believed the polls, which had Sinn Fein riding high on 32 per cent a few short months ago. And what did they do?
They ran more candidates this time around. But the Shinner vote collapsed, ergo, many candidates were left stranded, unelected and bruised.
Getting that balance right, so Sinn Fein maximises its vote at the next General Election, will be key. It is, to all intents and purposes, an impossible task because voters have been, and will continue to be, unpredictable.
The next three months will prove whether Mary Lou has the mettle and the wit to reinvigorate a Sinn Fein party that is now on its knees.
The jury is out.
FRANCE IN FIGHT FOR SOUL
THE best time to attack your enemy is when they’re at their strongest. Seems counterintuitive.
Well, French President Emmanuel Macron has chosen to wage war on the strong by calling an election for late June.
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His enemy, Marine Le Pen’s far Right, won 30 per cent of the vote in the European elections.
Macron’s is a monster risk, because it opens up the scary possibility of far Right, racist extremists governing France for the first time since the Nazi Vichy regime during World War Two.
Macron is gambling on his people balking at doing just that – and coalescing around moderates to keep Le Pen and her party of xenophobes from gaining power.
The cities of France rejected Le Pen at the ballot box in the Euro vote. Le Pen’s vote is a largely rural one. But the French, even those of the centre and the left, are fed up with Macron’s rule and that malaise may well ultimately hand victory to Le Pen.
Unlike Ireland, which largely rejected the anti-immigrant rhetoric of the perpetually angry far right, Europe, and especially France, embraced them. The European Parliament will have more extremists this time round, who will do all in their power to disrupt the liberal European project.
Nationalism, or particularism, was always attractive in French politics. The Communists in France had the slogan France For The French long before the far right appropriated it. The far left and far right are two sides of the same coin. As we’re beginning to realise here, in Ireland. Just ask Sinn Fein.
Here’s hoping Macron’s gamble pays off. If it doesn’t, the tolerant, cosmopolitan France we love, is dead.
FAIL FOR FAR-RIGHT
FOR all their thunder and their ludicrous claim to “represent 90 per cent of the Irish people”, the far right had an abysmal election at local level.
They won just FOUR seats out of 949 across the country. So in reality they represent just 0.4 per cent of the people.
Tom McDonnell, elected to Kildare County Council on Wednesday night, clutched a tricolour and told reporters: “My agenda will be to look after the women of Ireland and make sure that they have more children.” Wait, what?
He went on: “Our women are only breeding 1.5-1.6 children. That’s shocking for an Irish woman. If we don’t have women breeding, we die out as a breed.”
The voters of Newbridge, who elected this guy,what were you thinking?
RACING BACK TO TOP
IRISH athletics, so long in the doldrums, is in rude health.
We won two gold and two silver medals at the European Championships in Rome over the last week. A remarkable achievement.
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Heroes, including Rhasidat Adeleke, Ciara McGeehan, Sharlene Mawdsley, Phil Healy, Sophie Becker and Thomas Barr, did us proud and with the Olympic Games less than seven weeks away.
Team Ireland is on course to shatter its Olympic medals haul.
Our rowers, our boxers, our cyclists, our sailors, our swimmers and our golfers will all be in the hunt for medals.
Paris 2024 will be our best Olympics, no doubt.
AH, THOSE EURO '88 MEMORIES
GERMAN beers are in the fridge, frosting temptingly. The bratwursts are poised for the grill, the Bundys will be got fresh this morning.
I don’t have any lederhosen, or a pheasant-feathered Tyrolean hat, but I’ll be in full German mode today ahead of the opening game in the European Championships tonight in Munich, when the hosts go into battle against Scotland.
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The last time the Euros were in Germany was back in 1988.
Ireland’s first major championships. We slayed the English, held the might USSR and, despite the mettle of Paul McGrath, the Ruud Gullit-inspired Dutch broke our hearts. Memories.
But back to tonight. Germany will fancy themselves, but don’t dismiss the wily Scots. They play good, pressing football and will be tough to break down.
Should be a good game. Tonight’s opener is the appetiser for four weeks of non-stop football. Hurrah.
Tomorrow sees three games, Hungary v Switzerland at 2pm, Spain v Croatia at 5pm (a dinger) and Italy v Albania at 8pm.
England open their tournament on Sunday against the Serbs, no pushover.
It might be England’s time, but I doubt it. Either France, Germany or Portugal lift the Henri Delaunay Cup on July 14.