The failed assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in rural Pennsylvania over the weekend––the first attempt on a current or former president’s life in 43 years––is sure to jolt the 2024 race in seismic and unintended ways. Nowhere is this moment of uncertainty being more acutely felt than inside the Trump campaign as thousands of delegates descend on Milwaukee for the opening of the 2024 Republican National Convention. Three sources who have spoken to Trump since the shooting told me they are struggling to recognize his softer tone. “He’s changed and we’re all freaking out,” said one of the sources.
The Trump campaign is racing to reprogram the convention. What was originally going to be a four-day rage-fest is being positioned as a post-shooting showcase for unity. “Trump put the word out that he doesn’t want any talk of revenge or retaliation in speeches or anywhere else,” a Republican close to the campaign said. On his flight to Milwaukee on Sunday, Trump told journalists from the New York Post and Washington Examiner that he would be rewriting his nomination speech to bring the country together. “I basically had a speech that was an unbelievable rip-roarer. It was brutal—really good, really tough. I threw it out,” Trump said.
Even the campaign’s biggest decision is being reexamined by staffers. According to a source, Trump staffers are worried that Trump could select Nikki Haley as his running mate at the last minute to appeal to moderates; she was added to Tuesday’s speaker lineup in the aftermath of the shooting. “There is fear he might make her VP,” the source said. Two sources close to Trump dismissed this idea, but the fact that aides are discussing a Haley VP scenario speaks to the confusion of this historic moment. (Trump has reportedly made his choice, according to the AP, and Marco Rubio has been told he’s not it.)
The fundamental question for the election, of course, is whether Trump has actually changed. Is his chastening a short-term response to a near-death experience? Or is it smart politics? Would a reformed Trump replace his extreme policies with a moderate agenda? And would Trump, who has spoken ominously of seeking vengeance and retribution if elected, suddenly temper those dark impulses?
These are valid questions. Numerous times in the past, Trump modulated his tone to seem more “presidential,” only to revert to his demagogic instincts. But the sources who spoke with Trump in private say he truly seems like a different man. “He was like, ‘Holy shit, that was close.’ He feels blessed,” one of the people who spoke with Trump after the shooting said.
Trump also seems aware that the tragedy in Pennsylvania has engendered goodwill among vast swaths of voters––even his critics. According to a source, major executives in Hollywood and Silicon Valley reached out to Trump over the weekend to express their support. “They were sending messages like, ‘That was the bravest thing I’ve ever seen,’” said a source familiar with the conversations. (After the shooting, Elon Musk and Bill Ackman formally endorsed Trump.) Trump is aware that there is a huge political opening for him after the shooting, sources said. “He knows people are giving him another chance. He’s letting people back in,” said one of the people who spoke with Trump over the weekend. “He wants to be loved.”
Given recent events, you couldn’t fault Trump for wondering if his campaign is benefiting from divine intervention. On Monday morning, Trump-appointed judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the classified-documents case against the former president, saying the appointment of special counsel Jack Smith was unconstitutional. (Trump responded Monday by launching into one of his all-too-familiar tirades against the legal system, calling for the dismissal of “ALL the Witch Hunts,” including “The January 6th Hoax in Washington, D.C., the Manhattan D.A.’s Zombie Case, the New York A.G. Scam, Fake Claims about a woman I never met…and the Georgia ‘Perfect’ Phone Call charges.”)
Cannon’s decision followed the Supreme Court’s stunning ruling granting presidents vast powers of immunity for actions in office. And then there’s a Democratic Party paralyzed by the question of what to do about Joe Biden’s collapsing candidacy. “[Trump] can’t stop winning,” said the Republican close to the campaign. “This is gonna be a landslide.”
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