Jamaal Bowman’s New York primary loss this week is raising alarms among progressives as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee—which helped bring down the Squad member in a historically expensive race—now turns its attention to another prominent House critic of the war in Gaza: Cori Bush. But to what extent do the two primary contests actually serve as warning signs for the Democratic left?

AIPAC money unquestionably upended Bowman’s race to fend off George Latimer, the Westchester County executive who ended up beating the incumbent by 17 points on Tuesday. The pro-Israel lobby hammered Bowman, making the race the most expensive primary in history, and is threatening to do the same to Bush in Missouri’s August contest. “We should be outraged about that,” Bowman said in his concession speech, condemning the “dark money” that contributed to his loss.

But Bowman’s problems began before AIPAC entered the fray. Most infamous, perhaps, was his pulling of a Capitol Hill fire alarm while Congress was in session last year, as Republicans sought to push through a stopgap spending bill. (He claimed it was an accident, though was later charged and fined over the incident.) And that wasn’t his only vulnerability: Bowman has had to answer for past flirtations with 9/11 trutherism and other conspiracy theories, as well as his vote against 2021’s bipartisan infrastructure package—one of the signature achievements of President Joe Biden and the Democrats, which he argued didn’t go far enough.

All of this might not have been enough, on its own, to do him in. After all, fellow Squad member and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also voted against the legislation and has been critical of US-support for Israel’s offensive in Gaza. (She handily defeated her primary challenger Tuesday by more than 64 points.) However, AOC has maintained a deep connection to her district, while Bowman’s was a bit more tenuous, as a rally he held with Ocasio-Cortez and progressive Senator Bernie Sanders seemed to underscore last weekend.

“We are gonna show fucking AIPAC the power of the motherfucking South Bronx,” Bowman said from the stage. But Bowman does not represent the South Bronx, reinforcing a sense that Latimer has stronger local ties to the district in question. “I think I ran a campaign that was very grassroots-oriented,” Latimer said after his win. “I did a lot of personal campaigning.”

Like Bowman, Bush too has baggage. The Missouri representative is currently under Justice Department investigation for her campaign spending, including security payments to her now-husband. Bush denies wrongdoing, and says that the nonpartisan Office of Congressional Ethics already reviewed and dismissed the matter. But the inquiry has made her more vulnerable to the primary challenge being mounted by Wesley Bell—a prosecutor who is now running neck and neck with the incumbent in some polling—and it remains to be seen how much help she’ll get from the party. “She doesn’t have the kind of relationships even that Bowman had,” a progressive lawmaker told Axios. “I can imagine that it’s been difficult for folks in leadership to figure out how to be supportive of her.” Needless to say, AIPAC’s involvement could make things even harder for her, just as it and pro-Israel groups did for Bowman this week. “These same extremists are coming to St. Louis,” Bush said after her colleague’s loss.

Progressives are justifiably frustrated over the source of all the spending: “It is an outrage and an insult to democracy that we maintain a corrupt campaign finance system which allows billionaire-funded super PACs to buy elections,” Sanders said. “I think all Democrats should be able to see how bad this is for Democratic politics that there’s a huge amount of money coming in to influence a congressional race in a Democratic primary,” as Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told the Associated Press. But while Bowman’s loss may have been case study in the influential role of outside money, it’s far from clear that it was the broader referendum on progressives it has occasionally been framed as: “AIPAC didn’t pull a fire alarm,” as a House Democrat put it to Axios. “AIPAC didn’t speculate about 9/11.”