This is the latest edition of the Movies Fantasy League newsletter. The drafting window for this season has closed, but you can still sign up to get the newsletter, which provides a weekly recap of box-office performance, awards nominations, and critical chatter on all the buzziest movies.
What do we call the week immediately following the Academy Award nominations, when no further trophies have been handed out, the fervor of post-nomination hot takes has subsided, and everything seems to be in a holding pattern ahead of the mad dash to the Oscar stage? Hangover Week? Nap Week? We’re workshopping here — respond with your best suggestions.
There was a time, one that has been all but forgotten, when Oscar buzz and a handful of nominations could provide a film with a nice box-office bump. Twenty-five years ago, Shakespeare in Love responded to its 13 nominations by adding, in its tenth week of release, more than 1,000 theaters, which helped its box-office climb from $36 million to $100 million. That same year, Life Is Beautiful jumped from $18 million the week before nominations to $57 million by the end of its run.
It would be nice if we could enjoy such post-nomination box-office surges in the Movies Fantasy League — but the reality is that the Oscar-contending movies of 2023 aren’t going to experience that sort of windfall for reasons that mostly boil down to “We used to be a proper country.” But some small gains may be had, and those little boosts could end up making a difference — especially since, with Oppenheimer about to stomp its way through these last few award ceremonies, the box-office eligible contenders need all the points they can get.
Duck and Cover
Mean Girls once again led the way at the box office this weekend, pulling in $6.9 million to bring its total to just over $60 million — numbers that have absolutely no bearing on the MFL. But three spots down, just one past Wonka (which, with $5.6 million this past weekend, sits at $194 million), is a movie no one has been talking about: Illumination’s Migration, the animated film about ducks starring Kumail Nanjiani and Elizabeth Banks. It has been hanging around in the box-office top five for six weeks and, with its $4.9 million weekend, just crossed the bonus threshold on its way to $101 million. That makes for an extra 40 points for Migration drafters. In all likelihood that’s the last bit of good Migration news we’ll have, but hey, 171 total points isn’t bad.
As teased earlier, this was a big weekend for Oscar nominees to expand their theater count and start profiting. Poor Things led the charge, parlaying its 11 nominations to another 900 screens and $24 million in total box office (up from $20 million before the nominations). Shakespeare in Love would scoff at such a paltry bump, but it’s something, especially if curious audiences keep seeking it out.
American Fiction also followed its Best Picture nomination into the box-office top ten with $2.5 million over the weekend taking it to $11 million. The Zone of Interest added $1 million in its seventh week of release, giving it $3 million cumulatively — which is honestly impressive for a movie with The Zone of Interest’s plot, tone, and themes.
A trio of movies with high Oscar hopes but zero nominations (someone should do a podcast about such films …) also got small box-office bumps: The Boys in the Boat (George Clooney’s movie is up to $47 million!), Origin ($2.3 million in its first real expansion), and The Iron Claw (a body-slamming hit for A24 at $33 million).
Value Village
I’ve been waiting for an awards-season lull to dive into this year’s Most Valuable Films, which are the movies that have delivered the most points relative to how much of your roster money you paid for them. Currently, Oppenheimer is our overall points leader at 1,240, but since it cost $50 — half your budget — it has yielded 24.8 points per dollar. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have drafted it, but it does mean you probably needed to get a lot of value out of your remaining $50. These are the ten most valuable points-per-dollar movies in the league so far this year; if you drafted any of them, well done.
1.
Robot Dreams
125 points per dollar (125 points / $1 buy)
This Spanish, dialogue-free, animated dramedy set in 1980s New York City was a long shot for awards attention at the beginning of the season, despite being distributed by Neon. But with a perfect 100 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and a surprise Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature, it’s the year’s best value so far, and was picked by only 36 teams.
2.
Suzume
115 points per dollar (115 / $1)
The Japanese movie from director Makoto Shinkai (Your Name and Weathering With You) didn’t make much of an impression in the United States, but a 96 percent Rotten Tomatoes score plus a Golden Globe nomination was enough to justify the $1 purchase.
3.
American Fiction
111.2 points per dollar (556 / $5)
The greatest value from the Best Picture lineup is Cord Jefferson’s debut film, which made a splash at the Toronto Film Festival and rode that acclaim to five Oscar nominations.
4.
20 Days in Mariupol
102.5 points per dollar (205 / $2)
A perfect Rotten Tomatoes score helped boost this documentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but so did the fact that it showed up consistently on lists of the best documentaries of the year from the National Board of Review, the DGA, PGA, BAFTAs, and now the Oscars.
5.
Poor Things
93.4 points per dollar (934 / $10)
Ten dollars is a lot to pay for a movie that underperforms. Ask anyone who drafted Ferrari or The Killer or Asteroid City. But to have a movie overperform at that level … that’s a big help. Care to guess how many rosters in the top 100 of the MFL leaderboard have Poor Things on their roster? All of them. All of them!
6.
Five Nights at Freddy’s and Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
79 points per dollar (237 / $3 for Five Nights at Freddy’s and 395 / $5 for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour)
It’s deeply hilarious that these two films, which took the box office by storm in the fall, ended up with the exact same value. Together, they’re a testament that drafting for box office isn’t necessarily a fool’s venture.
8.
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
77.5 points per dollar (155 / $2)
This biographical doc about the beloved actor was a surprising omission from Oscar’s Best Documentary lineup, but a 99 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and awards attention from, among others, the DGA and the AARP Movies for Grownups Awards make Still a great value buy.
9.
Beyond Utopia
72.5 points per dollar (145 / $2)
This documentary about South Korean human-rights efforts to rescue fleeing North Koreans was another movie that fell just short of a nomination for Best Documentary at the Oscars. Even so, landing a DGA, PGA, and BAFTA nominee with a perfect Rotten Tomatoes score for $2 is clutch.
10.
The Mother of All Lies
62.5 points per dollar (125 / $2)
Morocco’s entry for the Best International Feature Oscar didn’t make the lineup, despite having won a Best Director prize at Cannes’ Un Certain Regard. Another perfect Rotten Tomatoes score combined with PGA and Independent Spirit Awards nominations to get a good point haul for those who drafted it.
Leaderboard
Without major points added from the box office this week, it’s no surprise that the leaderboard still features that seven-way tie at the top. So allow me instead to brag about how the AllOfUsGarys mini-league, made up of This Had Oscar Buzz listeners, has four of the top ten scores on the leaderboard. I feel like a proud booster who did nothing to contribute to my team on the field but still has a sense of pride as if I had.
You can see the full leaderboard here on the main MFL landing page.
Looking Ahead
Nothing on the calendar awards-wise until the DGA announces their winner on February 10. But then the pace really picks up:
February 10: DGA Awards
February 18: BAFTA Awards
February 24: Independent Spirit Awards
February 24: SAG Awards
February 25: PGA Awards
March 10: 96th Academy Awards
Questions? Feedback? Can’t find your team or mini-league on the leaderboard? Drop us a line at [email protected].
