Every week between now and January 23, 2024, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our Oscar Futures column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Oscar circus came to New York City this week, as Monday’s Gotham Awards and Thursday’s New York Film Critics Circle picks bookended a flurry of campaign meet and greets. The critics sprang for Martin Scorsese’s Oklahoma epic, which won both Best Picture and Best Actress. (Killers also received a Tribute Award at the Gothams, somewhat overshadowed by the kerfuffle about who edited Robert De Niro’s speech.) Bearing in mind that this is advantageous home turf for Scorsese, whose Irishman won top honors from NYFCC four years ago, and that the Circle’s Best Picture winner hasn’t overlapped with Oscar in over a decade, it’s still early points on the board for Killers, which is hoping to convince voters that it, and not Oppenheimer, is the three-hour excavation of our nation’s foundational sin worth rewarding.
Anatomy of a Fall
After France decided to submit the culinary romance The Taste of Things instead, I wondered whether Neon would still be able to mount a successful campaign for the Palme d’Or winner. So far, so good. Anatomy of a Fall won both Best International Feature and Best Screenplay at the Gothams — surprising co-writer Arthur Harari, who’d only prepared one speech — then landed another International Feature honor from the NYFCC, too. Anatomy won’t be able to win that category at the Oscars, of course, but the critical love suggests Justine Triet’s film is in pole position for the customary international spot in the Best Picture lineup. (Don’t cry for The Taste of Things, either, which has been wooing voters with dinners by chef Pierre Gagnaire, who made its mouth-watering meals.)
Current Predix
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Ho hum, just Nolan winning from the NYFCC what should be the first of many Best Director prizes. Is the tea-loving auteur locked-in for the Best Director Oscar that’s eluded him thus far? Certainly, few other filmmakers this year can match his blend of technical achievement, staggering weight, and box-office success. The New York critics also gave Oppenheimer Best Cinematography, underlining the sense that the atomic-bomb drama will be the one to beat in the craft categories.
Celine Song, Past Lives
The former playwright earned Best Debut honors from the NYFCC, capping off a week where Past Lives also took Best Feature at the Gothams. Song’s romantic drama is probably too understated to find favor with this branch of the Academy, which prefers an epic scale and eye-catching visuals. But for a June release trying not to fade from the year-end conversation, every laurel counts.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Franz Rogowski, Passages
The NYFCC wouldn’t be the NYFCC if they didn’t choose one left-field winner a year. Sometimes it works, as when they were the first group to bang a drum for Drive My Car. Sometimes it’s just a fun footnote, like when they awarded Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip. Rogowski, a German actor whose enthrallingly aggravating turn in Passages inspired critical hosannas, is a perfectly NYFCC pick. Still, for this train to leave the station, the other critical bodies will have to line up behind their New York brethren.
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
At both the Gothams and a subsequent industry Q&A for Killers, it was noticeable how much Leo deferred to co-star Lily Gladstone. As Tom and Lorenzo noted, “he’s using his own star power … to make sure she’s getting the kind of attention she missed out on when the film opened during the SAG-AFTRA strike.” DiCaprio not being the focus of his film’s campaign is more grist for the theory that he’s the presumptive nominee who’d drop out if someone else surges, since he’s playing an unassertive, unlikable character. But if Killers keeps performing, I think he’s safe.
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
How much did the Gotham Awards want to give Lily Gladstone a trophy? Even though Apple bowed out of submitting the $200 million Killers, the Gothams went ahead and handed her their Lead Performance Award for the little-seen road movie The Unknown Country, to the palpable confusion of many in the audience. The NYFCC had no such hurdles to jump, and duly awarded Gladstone their Best Actress prize for her big Oscar play. So far, the emphasis on Gladstone as the heart of the film, and the historic nature of her candidacy, are subduing the concerns about whether she has enough screen time to compete in lead.
Thomasin McKenzie, Eileen
This psychosexual drama, which premiered at Sundance, is opening in the thick of Oscar season. It’s adapted from an Ottessa Moshfegh novel, and like any Moshfegh heroine, McKenzie’s Eileen is burdened with insatiable appetites and the myriad indignities of the human body. In other words, maybe not an Oscar movie. With Neon prioritizing other titles, it would require a concerted critical effort to push Eileen into the race, and though reviews have been mostly positive, I’m not seeing a hunger for it.
Current Predix
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Charles Melton, May December
Here’s what the entirely unpredictive Gotham Awards are useful for: When Melton triumphed in the gender-neutral Supporting race, you could sense the warmth pouring from the room. It feels good to root for this guy! The former CW star made the most of his podium moment, striking a heartfelt and grateful note, and he followed it up with a Supporting Actor win from the New York critics. Most voters I’ve spoken to assume Robert Downey Jr. will take the Oscar in a walk. Maybe Melton, who appears determined to shake every hand and kiss every baby, can make this interesting.
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
A fellow pundit whispered to me this week, “Does Ryan Gosling want to win an Oscar for Barbie?” We were at Tuesday’s Barbie party, held above a snobby lobby, where Gosling had no-showed a planned appearance. The night before, he’d missed the Gothams, where he was nominated against Melton, and where the film received a Tribute Award. He was reportedly sick, but watch for hints about whether the two-time nominee has the Ken-ergy for the requisite glad handing this time around.
Current Predix
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Charles Melton, May December; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Randolph solidified her front-runner bona fides by taking the NYFCC’s Supporting Actress prize, a key pickup with The Color Purple’s Danielle Brooks starting to make inroads in the conversation. Her mournful turn in this sad-Christmas dramedy should continue to rack up wins over the festive period, especially as Purple is a box-office play that seems less likely to catch critics groups’ eye.
Anne Hathaway, Eileen
“She’s captivating,” was K. Austin Collins’s judgment of Hathaway at Sundance, and it’s hard not to agree. As a Hitchcock blonde who lights up dreary small-town New England, she gives a commanding movie-star performance — at least until a third-act twist sends the film veering off in another direction. She has an outside shot at critics-group attention, but it feels like Hathaway’s true fate is to be the person your favorite podcaster says “You know who should’ve been nominated?” in five years.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
More From This Series
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- Five Lingering Questions After the Oscars
- Why Emma Stone Beat Lily Gladstone for Best Actress
