As I See It: The Ukraine war
Putin’s war on Ukraine is killing people in Europe, especially Poland, not instantly, but inevitably. This is due to an increase in air pollution from battlefield operations and the disruption of natural gas supplies that forces Poles and others to rely on dirtier fuels. They may have to do without some modern amenities.
Old soldiers know that it always rains after a big battle. That’s why battlefield trenches were muddy. More WWI soldiers died from trench-foot than enemy fire. Nineteenth century rainmakers knew that airborne particles from cannon fire would make rain. Unfortunately, they could not control when, where or how much. In 1916 Hatfield-the-Rainmaker (a sewing machine salesman) was so successful in San Diego County that it was nearly washed away. The railroads were shut down for 32 days because the local river, normally a trickle, became a mile wide.
Explosives also unleash a cascade of toxins — including mercury, carbon monoxide, aluminum and sulfur — which can increase the amount of pollutants in the air by half.
That is just the risk of old-time technology. Now Putin is threatening to use nuclear weapons.
In addition to the devastating blast, nuclear weapons create airborne radioactive dust that commonly results in fallout. Where it might come down is very hard to predict, let alone control. At the latitude of Europe, the prevailing wind will carry most of the fallout east, into Russia. That might affect Putin’s popularity at home. Wind is fickle though and can also carry the fallout anywhere, so some of the dust will inevitably fall on NATO countries. Radiation from Chernobyl was detected as far away as Sweden and that was just a steam explosion with loss of coolant. Not even a nuclear one.
The war against Ukraine creates deadly pollution that affects air quality and public health in NATO Europe. Maybe even worldwide. The adjacent countries need to look at their air quality records, because a pollution attack and a gas attack amount to the same thing, except for dosage. Attack by poison gas has been banned by the Geneva convention since 1925. If Russia directed poison gas directly into Poland that would count as an armed attack
Another assault on NATO is the infiltration of Belarussians into Poland. It is difficult to know whether they are refugees or agents of the Putin-Lukashenko regime. That would be another act of war. Russia has a history of cheating and lying that goes back at least to Potemkin and Catherine. You know “A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” per Churchill.
In some ways this resembles other localized wars (Spain, Somalia, Vietnam) in that the big powers are testing their weapons in a real-world scenario, expensive but without the loss of constituent life that can make it politically distasteful at home. How long will Russian families be kept in the dark and be afraid to rise up?
There are a few ways to end the war in Ukraine. The short way is to surrender and become a vassal state of Russia, thereby reward Putin for violating all standards. Alternately a NATO country declares the situation or threat an armed attack, invokes Article 5 and NATO gets involved pushing Russia back. NATO has over 4 times the military power of Russia. Unfortunately, many European governments have shown historically a preference for appeasement. Surrender in installments.
Compromise is unrealistic, and would only result how much of Ukraine Putin gets to steal, and how soon he attempts to steal the rest, remember he learned from Stalin, Hitler and Napoleon. Putin is a bully. Bullies get their way because they make it too expensive or frightening to oppose them. Usually, they fold or disappear when someone more powerful or just braver confronts them and calls their bluff. The UN is castrated by the Security Council veto, (Thank you Joe Stalin) but NATO has no such constraint, just abundant caution.
It would not be unreasonable any NATO country within 1000 kilometers to warn Putin that continued atmospheric contamination, especially if nuclear derived, will be considered an attack on their country’s sovereignty and its citizens similar to the use of poison gas in WWI, and thus rattle the sword of Article 5.
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a biweekly column for West Hawaii Today. Send feedback to [email protected].
