Stef Terblanche Political Risk Analysis & Research

FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN RECEIVING FREE SAMPLE REPORTS Hi everybody, as an independent Political Risk Analyst and Researcher I have recently been receiving quite a number of inquiries by people interested in my three regular reports, so I have decided I will make available a very recent sample of each report free of charge. If you are interested in receiving these sample reports by email, send me an email to [email protected] and type "Free Political Reports" in the subject line.

https://lnkd.in/d9cDji-B #DDP #PaulKariuki #SurakshaSingh

THE GNU - A FARCE OF MAJOR PROPORTIONS? What I don't quite understand is why the ANC, the SA Communist Party and labour federation COSATU would vehemently criticize the Democratic Alliance for demanding a number of cabinet posts from the ANC in the Government of National Unity, but they don't at all criticize all the other free-riding little 1% political parties who are making similar demands quite out of proportion to the minuscule number of seats they have won in the National Assembly. Well, actually I do understand it, but the hypocrisy is just so glaringly obvious and astonishing, especially from the SACP which has never fought an election on its own as a party, but has always piggybacked as part of the ANC. Is there still space in our politics today for this Stalinist dinosaur? Mark my word, the moment the ANC plus all the 1% parties manage to push their seats total in the NA to 201, they will try to push the DA with its 87 seats out of the GNU. For the same reason and hoped-for effect, the ANC is now desperately trying to bring the EFF into the GNU as well, it seems. Could it be that with the help of its two alliance partners the ANC is trying to reclaim through the backdoor its lost position as majority governing party without having a majority at all? I am beginning to suspect a farce of major proportions. I truly hope I am wrong.

Taken from my Monday Briefing to clients this morning... TAKE FIVE...AND DON'T LOOK FOR MIRACLES IN A SYSTEM THAT HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED – As we start this week still waiting for President Ramaphosa to announce his first GNU cabinet, it’s perhaps fitting to reflect again exactly where we find ourselves on SA’s post-1994 political road. Various commentators still make lofty references to “our politics has changed for good” or “watershed change” etc. As I have said before: that’s not really the case, and we still find ourselves in the same process of political and democratic evolution within the same political process that started in 1994. It is a developing process but not a new political system or dispensation. The mechanics and rules of how our corpus politicum, our political entity is managed, may have been adjusted from the winner-takes-all 50%-plus-one mode to a mode of no-majority-so-power-is-shared-proportionally-in-a-unity-government, but the SA political animal is still essentially the same wolf. All that has changed is the brand of the sheep’s clothing it is wearing. There has been no revolution, no coup, no foreign military subjugation. The ANC is still married to its socialist ideals and harbours communists, trade unionists, a wealthy business elite and religious communities alike; the DA is still a liberal dream spawned from the remnants of apartheid whose DNA consists of minorities with an open invitation to a sceptical majority to join it; the IFP is still a Zulu cultural-political organisation that was born out of political wedlock in a former Bantustan; and the EFF are still race-nationalist quasi socialists and fascist political hooligans intent on disrupting anything and everything. Besides, we’ve been here before when the 1994 government under the interim constitution was one of national unity involving several parties. So, don’t expect miracles nor revolutionary change. The same party-political and ideological composition and divisions that formerly existed in Parliament are now being transferred into the former single-party executive to make it a multiparty entity parallel to the legislature where the bulk of the legislature now also forms the executive. What is also important though, is how parties have grouped themselves into two new camps: those belonging to the (moderate) GNU on the executive side, and those who have formed themselves into the (radical) Progressive Caucus on the legislative side. That’s the only real ‘new divide’. And while there is currently still a kind of temporary euphoria of working together for the good of the country and other such schmaltzy popular slogans, behind it all the parties, the ideologies, the policies, the divisions, the fights, the attacks, the political modus operandi, the issues, challenges and problems all still remain the very same. Soon it will be back to business as usual within this adjusted political framework that for now is filled with all its new cliches of the moment.

The Government of National Unity - an entity that seems to be growing by the day as more parties join it - has plenty of positive potential, but is obviously also facing a number of possible dangers. In an article published in The Star / IOL I dissect these positives and dangers. My article can be read here: https://lnkd.in/dhtWneV7

WILL THE ANC INDEED BE TOPPLED ON MAY 29....AND WILL THIS BE THE WATERSHED MOMENT IN S.A. POLITICS SO MANY ARE ANTICIPATING?   Most commentators view the 2024 election as likely to mark a pivotal moment in South Africa’s 30-year-old democratic history and one that will decisively change the political landscape. We have been at this juncture at least twice before since 1994 – once in 2007and again in 2024, while in 2017-2019 Cyril Ramaphosa missed the boat with his promise of “a new dawn” which never materialised. But here we are again at another anticipated pivotal moment of change, with South Africans seemingly fixated on the idea of an ANC election defeat, driven by opinion polls and embellished by opposition politicians. But some sobering questions arise that challenge this widely shared opinion that the ANC is about to exit from the political centre stage. Admittedly, the ANC has never been this weak before. But there are a large number of factors kicking in between now May 29 that could bolster the ANC’s election chances. With this in mind, the question arises whether this election will indeed be the watershed one everyone is expecting? Or will the real change for better or for worse only come in 2029, with this election merely being the precursor setting in motion the processes that will ultimately lead us to that? To find out more, read my article on the Website blog page of the Democracy Development Programme here https://lnkd.in/dmc2SYhK Paul Kariuki Ph.D Suraksha Singh

DEMOCRACY IS SO MUCH MORE THAN JUST YOUR VOTE…   As we go to the polls on May 29, we are reminded that since the advent of democracy in South Africa in April 1994, South Africans have gone to the polls every 5 years to elect who will make our laws and who will govern this country. That’s democracy, we say. Many among us – if not most – believe by casting our precious vote once every 5 years – and in-between in municipal elections – we have done our democratic duty. Now we can sit back and complain about how this government is failing and messing everything up, and 5 years later we cast our vote again in the futile hope that things will change. The truth is, democracy is so much more than just your vote if you really want to improve life for your country, your people, and yourself. You cannot merely leave it to an abstract concept and self-serving politicians. In South Africa there is a thriving, dynamic alternative society of doers – people and organisations who don’t sit around waiting for elections or a non-performing government but are rolling up their sleeves and doing things for themselves and their communities. They give practical expression to John F Kennedy’s famous words: “Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country”. To find out more, read my article on the website of the Democracy Development Programme here: https://lnkd.in/dg9Ubfxt     Paul Kariuki Ph.D Suraksha Singh Democracy Development Program

WE ARE TAKING OUR EYES OFF THE BALL. Criminal mafia gangs destroy electricity and water infrastructure in order to gain contracts to repair these or supply emergency services like water tankers in local communities. At road infrastructure repair or upgrade sites, they hijack vital construction equipment and then demand a slice of the legitimate action. When looking for culprits we tend to point at corrupt politicians, lack of professionals on boards, the ANC's poor governance, and all other manner of guilty parties. While these certainly shouldn't be ignored, we should focus far more on the role our police service could and should play in ending this destruction of our economy and infrastructure. If the police were effective in curtailing these mafias, it would solve a very huge part of these problems. First police minister Bheki Cele and many of the top generals must be dismissed and replaced with committed, efficient and suitably qualified people. Then, under "clean" and effective leadership, a new specialised police or para-military unit must be established and specifically trained and equipped to protect the country's vital infrastructure and services before there is nothing left. And a panel of experts from Treasury and other reputable entities must have oversight to ensure no corruption takes place. With proper and effective policing all the other culprits will also be rounded up and a major part of these problems will be resolved.

Love him or hate him, but you have to spare a smile for how Carl Niehaus always manages to pop up again and again, this time getting his face onto the poster as National Assembly election candidate number 27 for the EFF. Putting one's prejudices aside, he can actually be quite articulate and even reasonable sounding when explaining his views and choices, like in Mike Sham's recent State of the Nation interview with him where he explained his relationship with Jacob Zuma and why he chose not to throw in his lot with Zuma and the MKP but chose the EFF instead. At number 27 he is likely to get into Parliament where he will no doubt cause a lot of irritation to many South Africans, and wry smiles to others.  

TODAY THE SONA DEBATE IN PARLIAMENT WILL BE CONCLUDED when President Cyril Ramaphosa is given the podium to respond to what various political parties’ MPs had to say about his SONA. In essence, the debate became little more than a platform for election campaigning with the ANC and its supporters in Parliament expanding on Ramaphosa’s fable about the good life in South Africa his fictitious character Tintswalo has been living the past 30 years because of ANC rule, and also listing ANC “successes”. On the other side, opposition parties’ MPs slammed the ANC for its many failures and countered with the “nightmare” most South Africans wake up to each day under ANC rule. The hallmark of every speech made the past two days in Parliament was that it was aimed much more at voters and not so much at the MPs who sat in Parliament listening and shouting interjections. You be the judge which side made the best impression or came closest to the truth. Remember this is politics, which encompasses the art of, well, shaping “the truth” to serve a specific agenda in which the facts sometimes undergo extraordinary conversions…