Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
4 hours ago
What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate
Heading into the debate, Americans have higher expectations of Kamala Harris, but favor Donald Trump on key issues.
4 hours ago
4 hours ago
6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware
538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. House and governor in New Hampshire and Delaware.
4 hours ago
September 9, 2024 at 11:31 PM
Polling shows close presidential race ahead of debate
538 political podcast host Galen Druke joins the show to discuss the polling numbers showing that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump.
September 9, 2024 at 11:31 PM
September 9, 2024 at 3:19 PM
Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast
538's "what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.
September 9, 2024 at 3:19 PM
September 6, 2024 at 8:54 PM
The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion
Will there be long lines at the polls and voter confusion over new voting laws in the 2024 election?
September 6, 2024 at 8:54 PM
September 6, 2024 at 6:31 PM
538's polls policy and FAQs
How 538 decides which polls to include in its aggregation and models.
September 6, 2024 at 6:31 PM
September 5, 2024 at 6:41 PM
Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?
We clear up some confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
September 5, 2024 at 6:41 PM
September 5, 2024 at 1:36 AM
Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 5, 2024 at 1:36 AM
September 4, 2024 at 8:37 PM
Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
Test your knowledge of public opinion on Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's policy positions.
September 4, 2024 at 8:37 PM
September 4, 2024 at 3:45 PM
Is the Democratic Party a strong party?
The Democrats' Biden-Harris switch shows that the strong political party may be making a comeback.
September 4, 2024 at 3:45 PM
September 4, 2024 at 1:51 PM
What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?
Why Washington’s primary suggests House Democrats could gain nationally but lose a seat locally.
September 4, 2024 at 1:51 PM
August 30, 2024 at 7:26 PM
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
Former President Donald Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy has reset the race.
August 30, 2024 at 7:26 PM
August 28, 2024 at 8:42 PM
How did Democrats talk about issues at a DNC devoted to ideals?
At the DNC, Democrats played to their party's strengths on issues like abortion rights, health care and protecting democracy.
August 28, 2024 at 8:42 PM
August 27, 2024 at 8:01 PM
3 reasons why racist attacks on Harris could backfire
Why racist attacks from Donald Trump probably won't hurt Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
August 27, 2024 at 8:01 PM
August 22, 2024 at 5:24 AM
Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
August 22, 2024 at 5:24 AM
August 21, 2024 at 8:09 PM
Yes, party conventions matter
While most viewers are partisans, party conventions help energize the party bases, which are key to success in November.
August 21, 2024 at 8:09 PM
August 20, 2024 at 3:54 PM
Harris is starting to rebuild the Biden coalition
Amid the DNC, we look at how Kamala Harris's support among Black and Hispanic voters, young voters, women, men and non-college-educated white voters compares with Biden.
August 20, 2024 at 3:54 PM
August 19, 2024 at 9:27 PM
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
August 19, 2024 at 9:27 PM
August 19, 2024 at 9:03 PM
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
August 19, 2024 at 9:03 PM
August 16, 2024 at 5:57 PM
Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?
What are Kamala Harris's views on Israel, and will pro-Palestinian "uncommitted" voters prefer her over Joe Biden?
August 16, 2024 at 5:57 PM
August 16, 2024 at 10:21 AM
JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin
Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.
August 16, 2024 at 10:21 AM
1 month ago
Will Harris's late start help or hurt her in the general election?
Kamala Harris isn't the first candidate to secure a presidential nomination this late.
1 month ago
1 month ago
6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin
538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. Senate and House in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Americans don't like Project 2025
538's polling column about Project 2025, vaccines, the child tax credit and which party is more "weird."
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why immigration is a better issue for Trump than it was in 2020
Why immigration is such a good issue for Donald Trump and Republicans.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What is civic respect? | 538 Politics Podcast
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev talk about sweeping claims and how they relate to civic respect.
1 month ago
1 month ago
The challenges ahead for the Harris-Walz campaign | 538 Politics Podcast
ABC News Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses the Harris-Walz campaign and its challenges.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How has reaction to Russian prisoner swap impacted the Biden-Harris administration?
Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about how the latest Russian prisoner swap impacted the popularity of the current administration and Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Could Josh Shapiro be the Harris VP pick? | 538 Politics Podcast
The Pennsylvania governor is a popular and charismatic politician and is on the shortlist for vice president.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Does the VP pick impact a presidential candidate’s support? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses who is on the shortlist for vice president for the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Can Harris ride memes all the way to the White House?
Are Kamala Harris online memes going to help her win the election?
1 month ago
1 month ago
18 primaries to watch in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas
Tuesday's primary elections include notable governor, attorney general and U.S. House and Senate races in Michigan, Missouri, Washington and Kansas.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup
The 538 team discusses the latest polling and how the election is looking like a toss-up.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Tim Walz was the safe VP pick
Vice President Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Harris and Trump are tied in 538’s new polling averages
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential polling averages for Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How the political parties got so far apart
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev discuss with Galen Druke how political parties have sorted over time.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How will sexism impact Harris's presidential campaign?
Kamala Harris is already facing an onslaught of gendered attacks. Will they hurt her campaign?
1 month ago
1 month ago
The potential of Tim Walz as the Harris VP pick
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the Minnesota governor as the potential running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Young Black voters might be swing voters now
Black voter support for Trump and Republicans is concentrated among young Black voters.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Abortion-rights ballot measures may not help Democrats as much as they think
Most abortion-rights measures on the ballot this fall are likely to pass, but there’s no guarantee that their success will rub off on Democratic candidates.
1 month ago
1 month ago
5 primaries to watch in Arizona and Tennessee
Republicans in Arizona will likely nominate Kari Lake again — this time for Senate.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Quiz: How well do you know the top dogs of politics?
Take a break from the horse race and match these dogs to their political owners.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
1 month ago
2 months ago
Is Kamala Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee? Not quite.
Now that Joe Biden has dropped out, what happens next for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party?
2 months ago
2 months ago
What do the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup?
While Harris consistently polled worse than Biden did against Trump before the debate, she’s since fared the same or better in close to half of the post-debate polls.
2 months ago
2 months ago
This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.
The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What you might've missed at the RNC
Who spoke at the Republican National Convention (RNC) and what it means for the 2024 election.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What is a convention delegate?
FiveThirtyEight's Galen Druke sits down with ABC News reporter Will Ganns to breakdown the complicated question around party conventions: why are delegates a thing?
2 months ago
2 months ago
Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?
538 looks at the history of convention bounces in the polls, and why a Trump bounce after the 2024 RNC may be complicated by the recent shooting and other events.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?
2 months ago