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Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
4 hours ago

What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate

Heading into the debate, Americans have higher expectations of Kamala Harris, but favor Donald Trump on key issues.
4 hours ago
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off in their first head-to-head presidential debate on Sept. 10.
4 hours ago

6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware

538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. House and governor in New Hampshire and Delaware.
4 hours ago
 Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire speaks at a campaign rally in Gilford, N.H., Sept. 22, 2020/New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate in Henniker, N.H., Sept. 7, 2022.
September 9, 2024 at 11:31 PM

Polling shows close presidential race ahead of debate

538 political podcast host Galen Druke joins the show to discuss the polling numbers showing that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump.
September 9, 2024 at 11:31 PM
VIDEO: Polling shows close presidential race ahead of debate
September 9, 2024 at 3:19 PM

Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast

538's "what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.
September 9, 2024 at 3:19 PM
See how 538's presidential forecast would change if Harris or Trump win a specific state.
September 6, 2024 at 8:54 PM

The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion

Will there be long lines at the polls and voter confusion over new voting laws in the 2024 election?
September 6, 2024 at 8:54 PM
People wait in line for early voting for the midterm elections at Ponce De Leon Library on Nov. 4, 2022 in Atlanta.
September 6, 2024 at 6:31 PM

538's polls policy and FAQs

How 538 decides which polls to include in its aggregation and models.
September 6, 2024 at 6:31 PM
Frequently asked questions about how 538 collects polls.
September 5, 2024 at 6:41 PM

Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?

We clear up some confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
September 5, 2024 at 6:41 PM
ActiVote is a voter-education tool that also conducts polls via its smartphone app.
September 5, 2024 at 1:36 AM

Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 5, 2024 at 1:36 AM
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 4, 2024 at 8:37 PM

Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?

Test your knowledge of public opinion on Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's policy positions.
September 4, 2024 at 8:37 PM
How popular are Vice President Kamala Harris and her policy positions?
September 4, 2024 at 3:45 PM

Is the Democratic Party a strong party?

The Democrats' Biden-Harris switch shows that the strong political party may be making a comeback.
September 4, 2024 at 3:45 PM
Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepts the presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, 2024.
September 4, 2024 at 1:51 PM

What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?

Why Washington’s primary suggests House Democrats could gain nationally but lose a seat locally.
September 4, 2024 at 1:51 PM
House primary results in Washington state tend to predict general election trends both locally and nationally.
August 30, 2024 at 7:26 PM

Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after

Former President Donald Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy has reset the race.
August 30, 2024 at 7:26 PM
Vice President Kamala Harris's position in the polls has remained steady since the Democratic National Convention
August 28, 2024 at 8:42 PM

How did Democrats talk about issues at a DNC devoted to ideals?

At the DNC, Democrats played to their party's strengths on issues like abortion rights, health care and protecting democracy.
August 28, 2024 at 8:42 PM
Attendees hold freedom signs on the second day of the Democratic National Convention, August 20, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
August 27, 2024 at 8:01 PM

3 reasons why racist attacks on Harris could backfire

Why racist attacks from Donald Trump probably won't hurt Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
August 27, 2024 at 8:01 PM
Former President Donald Trump participating in a Q&A with Rachel Scott, senior congressional correspondent for ABC News, during the National Association of Black Journalists Annual Convention and Career Fair at Hilton Chicago July 31, 2024.
August 22, 2024 at 5:24 AM

Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
August 22, 2024 at 5:24 AM
Chicago's young voters voice their opinion on 2024 presidential election
August 21, 2024 at 8:09 PM

Yes, party conventions matter

While most viewers are partisans, party conventions help energize the party bases, which are key to success in November.
August 21, 2024 at 8:09 PM
Political conventions tend to attract viewers who are already politically engaged and partisan-affiliated.
August 20, 2024 at 3:54 PM

Harris is starting to rebuild the Biden coalition

Amid the DNC, we look at how Kamala Harris's support among Black and Hispanic voters, young voters, women, men and non-college-educated white voters compares with Biden.
August 20, 2024 at 3:54 PM
538 took a deep dive into Harris's polling numbers
August 19, 2024 at 9:27 PM

Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
August 19, 2024 at 9:27 PM
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
August 19, 2024 at 9:03 PM

Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
August 19, 2024 at 9:03 PM
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
August 16, 2024 at 5:57 PM

Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?

What are Kamala Harris's views on Israel, and will pro-Palestinian "uncommitted" voters prefer her over Joe Biden?
August 16, 2024 at 5:57 PM
People gather to protest a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris on Aug. 14, 2024 in New York City.
August 16, 2024 at 10:21 AM

JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin

Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.
August 16, 2024 at 10:21 AM
Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance reacts to the cheering crowd during a campaign event in Reno, Nev., July 30, 2024.
1 month ago

Will Harris's late start help or hurt her in the general election?

Kamala Harris isn't the first candidate to secure a presidential nomination this late.
1 month ago
Harris isn't the only presidential nominee to clinch her party's nomination late in the election cycle.
1 month ago

6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin

538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. Senate and House in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
1 month ago
lhan Omar and Don Samuels
1 month ago

Americans don't like Project 2025

538's polling column about Project 2025, vaccines, the child tax credit and which party is more "weird."
1 month ago
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
1 month ago

Why immigration is a better issue for Trump than it was in 2020

Why immigration is such a good issue for Donald Trump and Republicans.
1 month ago
Public opinion on immigration has swung toward Republicans.
1 month ago

What is civic respect? | 538 Politics Podcast

Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev talk about sweeping claims and how they relate to civic respect.
1 month ago
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev talk about sweeping claims and how they relate to civic respect.
1 month ago

The challenges ahead for the Harris-Walz campaign | 538 Politics Podcast

ABC News Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses the Harris-Walz campaign and its challenges.
1 month ago
ABC News Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses the Harris-Walz campaign and its challenges.
1 month ago

How has reaction to Russian prisoner swap impacted the Biden-Harris administration?

Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about how the latest Russian prisoner swap impacted the popularity of the current administration and Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about how the latest Russian prisoner swap impacted the popularity of the current administration and Kamala Harris.
1 month ago

Could Josh Shapiro be the Harris VP pick? | 538 Politics Podcast

The Pennsylvania governor is a popular and charismatic politician and is on the shortlist for vice president.
1 month ago
The Pennsylvania governor is a popular and charismatic politician and is on the shortlist for vice president.
1 month ago

Does the VP pick impact a presidential candidate’s support? | 538 Politics Podcast

The 538 team discusses who is on the shortlist for vice president for the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
The 538 team discusses who is on the shortlist for vice president for the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
1 month ago

Can Harris ride memes all the way to the White House?

Are Kamala Harris online memes going to help her win the election?
1 month ago
Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a wave of interest on social media since President Joe Biden endorsed her
1 month ago

18 primaries to watch in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas

Tuesday's primary elections include notable governor, attorney general and U.S. House and Senate races in Michigan, Missouri, Washington and Kansas.
1 month ago
In this May 23, 2024, file photo, Rep. Cori Bush speaks during a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.
1 month ago

What the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup

The 538 team discusses the latest polling and how the election is looking like a toss-up.
1 month ago
The 538 team discusses the latest polling and how the election is looking like a toss-up.
1 month ago

Tim Walz was the safe VP pick

Vice President Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz arrives to speak at a press conference regarding new gun legislation at City Hall on Aug. 1, 2024 in Bloomington, Minn.
1 month ago

Harris and Trump are tied in 538’s new polling averages

Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential polling averages for Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump.
1 month ago
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential polling averages for Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump.
1 month ago

How the political parties got so far apart

Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev discuss with Galen Druke how political parties have sorted over time.
1 month ago
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev discuss with Galen Druke how political parties have sorted over time.
1 month ago

How will sexism impact Harris's presidential campaign?

Kamala Harris is already facing an onslaught of gendered attacks. Will they hurt her campaign?
1 month ago
Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks on reproductive rights at Ritchie Coliseum on the campus of the University of Maryland, June 24, 2024, in College Park, Md.
1 month ago

The potential of Tim Walz as the Harris VP pick

ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the Minnesota governor as the potential running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
Politics reporter Brittany Shepherd joins the 538 podcast to discuss the Minnesota governor as the potential running mate for the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
1 month ago

Young Black voters might be swing voters now

Black voter support for Trump and Republicans is concentrated among young Black voters.
1 month ago
Younger Black voters have become more Republican.
1 month ago

Abortion-rights ballot measures may not help Democrats as much as they think

Most abortion-rights measures on the ballot this fall are likely to pass, but there’s no guarantee that their success will rub off on Democratic candidates.
1 month ago
Anti-abortion protesters stand outside of the Fiserv Center as the Republican National Convention begins on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wis.
1 month ago

5 primaries to watch in Arizona and Tennessee

Republicans in Arizona will likely nominate Kari Lake again — this time for Senate.
1 month ago
Kari Lake, Mark Lamb
1 month ago

Quiz: How well do you know the top dogs of politics?

Take a break from the horse race and match these dogs to their political owners.
1 month ago
Dogs and politicians have a long and storied history.
1 month ago

What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table

Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
1 month ago
Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Roy Cooper are on the list of potential Democratic vice presidential picks.
2 months ago

Is Kamala Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee? Not quite.

Now that Joe Biden has dropped out, what happens next for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party?
2 months ago
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at her campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 22, 2024.
2 months ago

What do the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup?

While Harris consistently polled worse than Biden did against Trump before the debate, she’s since fared the same or better in close to half of the post-debate polls.
2 months ago
Limited polls have tested Kamala Harris against Donald Trump in a general-election matchup.
2 months ago

This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.

The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
2 months ago
Jacksonville has experienced some of the steepest increases in cost of living in the country since the pandemic.
2 months ago

What you might've missed at the RNC

Who spoke at the Republican National Convention (RNC) and what it means for the 2024 election.
2 months ago
SlackChat Kaleigh Rogers
2 months ago

What is a convention delegate?

FiveThirtyEight's Galen Druke sits down with ABC News reporter Will Ganns to breakdown the complicated question around party conventions: why are delegates a thing?
2 months ago
FiveThirtyEight's Galen Druke sits down with ABC News reporter Will Ganns to breakdown the complicated question around party conventions: why are delegates a thing?
2 months ago

Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?

538 looks at the history of convention bounces in the polls, and why a Trump bounce after the 2024 RNC may be complicated by the recent shooting and other events.
2 months ago
"Trump" campaign signs inside the Fiserv Forum ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 15, 2024.
2 months ago

Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.

Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?
2 months ago
Will Nikki Haley's supporters back Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2024 general election?