Fantasy Football: The key metric to find the best WR values on draft day

Let's beat the wideout fantasy market with ESPN's receiver tracking metrics (RTMs).

Last year in this space we unveiled "open score," which measures a receiver's ability to get open on every route -- regardless of whether they are targeted -- relative to expectations, using NFL Next Gen Stats data. But the question I came back to this year was: Do the RTMs actually help us beat average draft position? It turns out some of them do. But critically, not all.

There are three components to the receiver tracking metrics: the aforementioned open score, as well as catch score and YAC score, which measure a receiver's ability to make the catch and generate yards after the catch, respectively. Again, this is relative to expectations based on factors such as the route run, defensive coverage, and the positioning, speed and direction of all 22 players on the field.

All three RTM categories rank players on a 0-99 scale, with 50 being roughly average.

From 2018 to 2023, a simple out-of-sample model using average draft position, prior season open score and prior season catch score outperformed a model of ADP alone, in terms of predicting wide receiver fantasy rank. This is great news! It means the RTMs have information that has not been fully baked into the market -- and we can use that to our advantage. Notably, the YAC score did not improve the model.

Knowing the market underrates players who perform well in open score and catch score relative to their ADP, we can identify players who appear either underrated or overrated relative to their market. A benefit of this approach is that by incorporating ADP into the model, we are able to partially bake in factors outside of last season's on-field performance -- such as a player's age or changes in opportunity, teammates or scheme or a player's age -- and just focus on where the RTMs nudge us in one direction or another.

Using ESPN's current default rankings as a stand-in for ADP, let's use our simple model of ADP, open score and catch score to identify players who look like values and fades. The full list of RTMs can be found here.

Draft 'em

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (WR rank: 17; model rank: 3)

The RTMs have no greater love than Aiyuk, who smashed in the categories we care about for this exercise: open score (81) and catch score (97). Aiyuk's volume (1,342 receiving yards) was stymied by the fact that the 49ers regularly jumped out to leads and no longer needed to throw, but on a down-to-down basis, the skill was there. He's an elite receiver in an elite offense, and if the RTMs are screaming one thing, it is this: Aiyuk is going to be underrated by fantasy managers. The difference between WR rank and model rank is jarring here, so I want to be clear: I'm not advocating Aiyuk be selected third among WRs -- consider this a simple model to push us one way or another off ADP, and not as a replacement for draft ranks.

Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears (WR rank: 31; model rank: 9)

Allen had arguably his best season in his final campaign as a Charger. His 2.5 yards per route run was nearly a career high and indicated he still was playing at an exceptional level. So did the RTMs, as Allen recorded a 91 open score (and 61 catch score) at age 31. Open score is the most important RTM here, both in terms of predicting future yardage and in terms of performance relative to ADP, so he's another player to buy. Lots of factors have changed with Allen -- he's getting older and is now playing on a new team with rookie QB Caleb Williams -- but we're relying on the market to handle that information and using the RTMs to tell us, simply, he's still got it.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans (WR rank: 30; model rank: 18)

Dell's rookie season was cut short by a fractured fibula, but make no mistake: He showed plenty in the 11 games he did play, when he recorded 709 receiving yards and 2.4 yards per route run. In terms of the RTMs, Dell shined in open score with an 81 (tied for eighth among wideouts, along with Aiyuk). In other words: Dell flashed No. 1 ability as a rookie, but he may still be available at a discount relative to his talent.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (WR rank: 33; model rank: 20)

We highlighted Johnson in our open score story a year ago as a player to target, and while I wouldn't call that a success based on the baseline numbers he put up last season -- 717 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 13 games -- his 2.1 yards per route run were a career high. His open score dropped from 99 in 2022 to 78 in 2023, but that still ranked 12th among wide receivers. There are new complications (or potential upsides) with his new home in Carolina, but the RTMs remain firm on Johnson; he still looks like a player underrated by the market.

Fade 'em

Deebo Samuel Sr. San Francisco 49ers, (WR rank: 18; model rank: 39)

Although we mentioned that YAC score offered no additional value to ADP, that doesn't mean it's bad (obviously). It just means that YAC skills, and how they predict future performance, are fully baked into the market. The issue for Samuel is that he is all YAC. Over the past four seasons, his open and catch scores have both been below 50 every season. Samuel is incredible at generating YAC -- he has three of the top five YAC scores in the history of the metric, which dates back to 2017 -- but his profile suggests he will be overrated in fantasy markets.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (WR rank: 4; model rank: 17)