Fantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible values, but we all know there are special players we badly want on our squad.
Whether it's the young, up-and-coming wide receiver on our favorite team, a sleeper running back no one is talking about or this year's big breakout at tight end, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process.
This round-by-round analysis will give you an idea of what's going through my head on draft day, headlined by those players I have circled on my cheat sheet. Note that I used Average Draft Position (ADP) data from Draft Sharks' terrific Market Index Tool in order to ensure this road map would be useful for as many of you as possible.
For a more philosophical look at the current fantasy football landscape, including strategies for drafting, trading and working waivers in all types of formats, be sure to check out the 2024 fantasy football playbook.
Here it is -- my personal recipe for a fantasy football championship this season:
The core
When making my selections in fantasy football, I often ask myself: "Am I drafting this player at his ceiling?" If the answer is "yes," I generally aim for someone with more upside. Of course, all of the players available in the first round or so are likely at or near their ceilings, so this is an opportunity to not overthink it and simply take the best available player on the board.
Round 1 -- Bijan Robinson
Who I choose in the first round will primarily depend on where I pick (duh), but Robinson is a player we can generally get our hands on in the early or middle portion of the round.
Robinson's rookie season felt a bit underwhelming, but despite all the roadblocks to success, he still finished sixth among RBs in yardage, fifth in snaps and second in targets. His fantasy production was solid, but would've been much better had he received more work near the goal line (two carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line). With offensive playcaller Arthur Smith and QB Desmond Ridder out and replaced by Zac Robinson and Kirk Cousins, respectively, Bijan Robinson is well positioned to reach his high ceiling in 2024. I'm willing to pick Robinson as high as second overall in my drafts.
If I'm picking in the middle of the first round and the "Big 3" RBs (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Robinson) are gone, I'm happy to roll with a top-tier WR such as CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Justin Jefferson.
Round 2 -- Garrett Wilson
Same as Round 1, our pool of available players is very dependent upon where we are in the draft order. If I'm near the turn between Rounds 1 and 2, I'm eyeing the best available among Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and Wilson. If I'm later in the round, the likes of Isiah Pacheco and Chris Olave often make it to my roster.
Same as last year, though, I want to get my hands on Wilson. Yes, we got burned by Aaron Rodgers' season-ending injury on the first drive of his Jets' debut, but he'll be back under center in 2024. Wilson has been heavily utilized during his first two seasons (fourth among WRs in targets), but hasn't reached his fantasy ceiling because of the team's horrific quarterback play (7 career TDs). He's a sneaky bet to lead all wideouts in TD receptions in 2024.
Round 3 -- Mike Evans
We head south for the third round, as I tend to find myself selecting either Evans or his Tampa Bay teammate Rachaad White.
Evans (10th among WRs in fantasy points per game last season) continues to get the job done, having led all wideouts in touchdowns last season (13) while registering his 10th consecutive campaign as a top-25 fantasy scorer with 1,000-plus yards. At age 31, the future Hall of Famer likely has another year or two of high-end play in the tank. If not Evans, Michael Pittman Jr. is a strong target in this range.
If I want to go running back here, White is the easy choice. A target of mine in this column last year, White went on to finish first in snaps and routes, second in carries and touches and fourth in yards among running backs. The 25-year-old has minimal competition for touches and remains a solid, fringe-RB1 option.
Round 4 -- Alvin Kamara
I can't believe I'm admitting this, but yes, I have a 29-year-old running back on my radar in fantasy football. If you listen to the Fantasy Focus podcast on the regular, you know Field, Stephania and Daniel are going to give me hell for this, but Kamara -- even at the ancient age of 29 -- is way too good of a value to pass on.
The Saints' lead back finished third among RBs in fantasy PPG last season (his sixth top-eight finish in seven campaigns) and -- after leading the position in target share (19%) in 2023 -- he has now finished all seven seasons in the top five among backs in targets. With Jamaal Williams all but a nonfactor last season and second-year RB Kendre Miller seemingly struggling to progress, Kamara is set up for another big season.
If I miss on Kamara, the younger Kenneth Walker III is an attractive fallback plan. At wide receiver, DK Metcalf has shown a bit of a limited fantasy ceiling in recent years, but he's a solid target in Round 4 and that's especially the case in non-PPR leagues. Also, I'm not afraid to pounce on TE Mark Andrews toward the end of the round.
Round 5 -- Malik Nabers
Nabers' stock continues to rise (he may cost a fourth-round pick by the time you're reading this), but the No. 6 pick in April's draft very well could be one of the league's next great players. Even if the Giants' offense struggles, Nabers will undoubtedly be force-fed the ball, a trait that has followed wide receivers selected in the top 10 over the past decade.
If I miss on Nabers, Zay Flowers is my target of choice. The clear No. 1 wide receiver in Baltimore, Flowers enjoyed a hefty 24% target share as a rookie and finished strong, with all four of his games with 20-plus fantasy points coming in Baltimore's final seven games (including the playoffs).
If I'm in the running back market, D'Andre Swift has the look of a nice value near the turn between Rounds 5 and 6. I'm also monitoring Trey McBride, though there's a similar tight end still on the board, as well, and I can get him in a few rounds (teaser alert).
Round 6 -- Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott
Unless you reach way too early on one of them, it's tough to mess up quarterback this season. There are roughly 10 or 11 quarterbacks we can feel pretty comfortable starting every week, and that number could be higher if a player such as Jayden Daniels proves to be the real deal. Want a superstar like Josh Allen in the third round? No one can blame you. How about Lamar Jackson a round later? That works. Want to wait until the middle rounds and go after Kyler Murray or Jordan Love? Fine.
Of course, even at a deep position, the goal remains to find the best possible value. I've identified Burrow and Prescott as the best targets considering the combination of their talent, fantasy upside and inexpensive cost. Prescott absolutely lit it up last season after a slow start and ended up third among QBs in fantasy points. He has now finished eighth or better on a points-per-game basis in four of the past five seasons. Burrow was fantasy's No. 4-scoring quarterback in 2022 and, after that dreadful start to 2023, got back on track and was, once again, fantasy's QB4 during his final five games prior to the season-ending wrist injury. Both veteran quarterbacks have top-five upside.
If not quarterback, WR Keenan Allen and RB Rhamondre Stevenson are on my radar.
The middle rounds
OK, so the core of my team is in place. It's time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. We'll save the high-risk fliers for later.
Round 7 -- Evan Engram or Calvin Ridley
Tight end is very similar to quarterback this season, in that it's hard to mess up because there are at least 10 quality options and perhaps a few more than that. (My top 10 doesn't include the likes of Brock Bowers, T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz or Dallas Goedert.)
But, again, same as quarterback, we can do our best to keep a level head and identify the best possible value. To me, that value is Engram. The 30-year-old has been a top-five fantasy TE in each of the past two seasons and is coming off a year when he finished fourth in the NFL in receptions (his 114 were 19 more than any other tight end). Engram is a top-five TE option who can be had several rounds after unproven commodities at the position. I'll take that discount all day long.
Though I did choose to feature Engram here, his ex-teammate Ridley is one of my most drafted players this year. Ridley signed a massive contract with the Titans and should immediately slide in as Will Levis' top target. The ex-Jaguar led the NFL with 25 end zone targets in 2023 (no one else had more than 20) and he has finished 27th or better in fantasy PPG all five seasons in the league. Ridley's cost is rising with DeAndre Hopkins battling a knee injury, but he's still well worth consideration in the fifth through seventh rounds.
Rashee Rice (who would be going earlier if not for a potential suspension hanging over him) and -- if I've waited at quarterback -- Jordan Love are my other primary targets in this range.
Round 8 -- Diontae Johnson or Rome Odunze
In a deeper league (i.e. perhaps one in which we must start three WRs and a flex), we're still looking for a Week 1 starter, but many of us are now done filling out our lineup and are on to stocking our bench with talent. Either way, I have some options, including Johnson and Odunze.
The first is Johnson, who has a safer path to targets out of the gate. Traded to Carolina during the offseason, the 28-year-old delivered three straight top-30 fantasy campaigns prior to stumbling to 45th in Pittsburgh's struggling pass offense in 2023. The elite route runner is well positioned for a rebound as Bryce Young's top target.
If I'm aiming for a higher ceiling, I'll throw a dart at Odunze. The ninth overall pick in April's draft will be working with a rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) and has substantial target competition (Keenan Allen and DJ Moore), but as noted earlier, wideouts selected in the top 10 tend to produce at a high level right out of the gate. Odunze would be a risky early-round pick, but betting on his talent in the eighth round is well worth it (he won't be nearly this cheap in 2025 drafts).
Though Johnson and Odunze are my top targets here, we actually have a ton of intriguing options in this range. I'm also looking at the likes of Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy and Ladd McConkey at wide receiver, David Njoku at tight end and Kyler Murray at quarterback.
Round 9 -- Brian Robinson Jr.
We're officially in dart throw territory and the analysis here is similar to last round: I'll be picking my favorite solid/underrated veteran or taking a shot on a breakout candidate.
In this case, the player I've chosen is the former -- third-year RB Robinson. Washington signed Austin Ekeler during the offseason, but the ex-Charger is a long shot to operate as a feature back after a rough season (3.5 YPC) and at age 29. Robinson, meanwhile, has quietly soaked up exactly 214 touches in each of his first two seasons (despite seven missed games) and actually led all backs in yards per target (8.6) last season. In a fast-paced, Kliff Kingsbury offense, Robinson is set up well for a strong 2024 campaign.
If I miss out on Robinson, I'm eyeing a few upside wide receivers, including Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Keon Coleman.
Round 10 -- Courtland Sutton or Brian Thomas Jr.
I could have gone a few different routes here, but I've drafted Sutton and Thomas a ton in this range this offseason, so both are worth some discussion. Sutton is unlikely to match his TD total from 2023 (10 on 92 targets), but he gets plenty of work (90-plus targets in three straight seasons), especially near the goal line (top 10 in end zone targets during three of his four full seasons). He remains the clear No. 1 target in Denver and, while that supplies him with a high fantasy floor regardless, he very well could post one of his best seasons if rookie QB Bo Nix proves to be the real deal.
Thomas, meanwhile, is yet another high-pedigree dart throw. The 23rd pick in April's draft will slide into a prominent offensive role in Jacksonville alongside Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. It's very possible he'll quickly replace Calvin Ridley as Trevor Lawrence's favorite target.
Bengals second-year RB Chase Brown and Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson (recovering from a torn ACL) are also on my radar in this range.
The late-round fliers
At this point, our starting lineup is likely full, which means it's time to look for values and upside for our bench.
Round 11 -- Undervalued veteran
Recent ADP shows that, at this point in the draft, a lot of the most appealing young breakout players are already off the board. Some intriguing late-round dart throws remain, but we can get them a bit later.
Instead, I think this area of the draft has a few undervalued veterans who very well could end up as viable weekly flex options. The three that stand out to me are Tyler Lockett, Chuba Hubbard and J.K. Dobbins.
Lockett is nearing the end of his prime (age 31), but still ended up 21st in targets, 11th in end zone targets and 32nd in fantasy points among wide receivers last season. Hubbard and Dobbins are running back wild cards. Hubbard, who was quietly ninth among backs in touches last season, figures to lead the Carolina backfield until Jonathon Brooks (torn ACL) is ready to go (likely not prior to Week 4). Dobbins has suffered two major injuries (knee, Achilles) over the past three seasons, but he's still only 25 years old and his only competition in Los Angeles is 29-year-old Gus Edwards. Both backs very well could land on the weekly RB2/flex radar.
Round 12 -- Ty Chandler
Chandler is among my favorite running back dart throws. The third-year back was solid last season (4.5 YPC, caught 21 of 25 targets) and his only roadblock to a big role in 2024 is newcomer Aaron Jones. Jones will undoubtedly open the season as the lead back, but he turns 30 in December and has had durability issues (missed time in five of seven seasons). Chandler will have a role right out of the gate and, if Jones fades or misses extended time, he very well could push for flex value.
If not Chandler, Mike Williams is appealing after signing on as the Jets' No. 2 wide receiver.
Rounds 13-14 -- High-ceiling insurance and breakout candidates
ADP starts to go out the window late in the draft, so now is the time to get our favorite late-round sleepers and breakout candidates.
Here are the players I will be considering with my final few picks:
Quarterback fliers: I generally select one quarterback in a 10-team league, especially since a lot of solid QB2 options will go undrafted in most formats. However, if I'm eyeing a sneaky breakout candidate in a deeper league, the likes of Bryce Young and Will Levis are on my radar.
Running back insurance: A few popular insurance RBs will be gone by now, but a ton remain, including Tyler Allgeier, Antonio Gibson, Kendre Miller, MarShawn Lloyd, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ray Davis, Jaylen Wright, Elijah Mitchell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Braelon Allen. Pick your favorite!
Wide receiver veterans: With teams using more wide receivers than ever before, there are always notable, high-floor veteran wideouts available late. Darnell Mooney, Gabe Davis, Adam Thielen and Rashid Shaheed are the headliners.
Wide receiver upside fliers: Despite the comfort of a safe, veteran receiver, I'm typically aiming for more upside here. Those targets include rookies Ja'Lynn Polk, Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall, Jermaine Burton and Jalen McMillan, as well as second-year wideouts Tre Tucker, DeMario Douglas, Marvin Mims Jr., Dontayvion Wicks and Josh Downs. I could expand this list even further, but as a simple rule, we should have our eyes on first- and second-year receivers taken on Day 1 and 2 in the NFL draft.
Tight end options: There are always a few interesting late-round TE fliers of note (I mentioned Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride in this section one year ago) and among those available this season are Tyler Conklin (hello, Aaron Rodgers), Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave and the always-fun Taysom Hill.
Rounds 15-16 -- Kicker, D/ST and more breakout candidates
We're assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If we're drafting here at ESPN, we'll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker (I'll cover my favorite targets at those spots later).
However, if there's flexibility in your league, this is a spot where we can gain a leg up on the competition. Most of our leaguemates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1.
Why? I have no idea. Don't do that.
In lieu of those positions, I will gather up insurance policies at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If I have the Ravens' defense rostered and Christian McCaffrey goes down for the season, I have the Ravens' defense. If I have Elijah Mitchell rostered and McCaffrey goes down, I have a potential RB2. Oh, and I can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup and a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN (why wouldn't it be?), one way around the draft room restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense after the draft in favor of adding more of the high-upside stashes mentioned earlier.
Defense/Special Teams
History has taught us over and over and over again, we should never reach on D/STs. In fact, six of the past seven top-scoring fantasy D/STs finished ninth or worse the following season. That includes the 2016 Vikings, 2017 Jaguars, 2018 Bears, 2019 Patriots, 2020 Rams and 2022 Patriots. Be smart. Just don't do it.
The Browns, Cowboys, Jets, Ravens and 49ers top my D/ST rankings, but since I like to stream, I'll also be looking at the Seahawks, Bengals, Vikings, Bears and Saints, as each has a relatively light Week 1 opponent.
Kicker
This is as simple as picking the top guy left on the board. Harrison Butker, Brandon Aubrey and Justin Tucker top my rankings, but don't reach on any of them. Prior to Daniel Carlson pacing the position in both 2021 and 2022, the last No. 1-scoring kicker to finish top 10 the following season was Matt Bryant in 2017 (Carlson fell to 24th in 2023).
So, there you have it. My game plan for a 2024 fantasy football championship. Remember, this piece should not serve as your only draft board. It's simply the players I've found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, those I would love to have on my squad this year.