We're just under a month away from the July 30 MLB trade deadline -- and it's shaping up as one of the most unpredictable deadlines in a long time.
At the start of this week on Monday, just 5.5 games separated nine teams for the final two wild-card spots in the National League, with only the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies definitely out of the playoff picture. In the American League, only three teams look out of it, although projected playoff contenders like the defending champion Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays are fading fast and need to start turning things around.
What happens on the field over the next 28 days will have a huge effect on what ultimately happens off it -- let alone the impact it will have on how aggressive some of those wild-card contenders may or may not be with their trades. Factoring in where teams are in the standings, let's name one major league player each team should trade for -- or away -- before the deadline.
White Sox: Trade away Garrett Crochet
The White Sox haven't done much right the past three seasons, but converting Crochet from a reliever to a starter -- coming off Tommy John surgery in 2022 no less -- has proved to be one of the more astute decisions from any team in recent years. Even in college at Tennessee, Crochet primarily pitched out of the bullpen, but he has been a revelation as a starter, averaging 97 mph with his fastball while striking out a blistering 12.4 batters per nine innings. To put that number in perspective, only five left-handers have ever averaged 12 K's per nine while throwing at least 125 innings.
One of those lefties was Chris Sale -- and the White Sox were in this position with Sale when they traded him to the Red Sox after the 2016 season while he still had three seasons on a team-friendly contract. Crochet is eligible for free agency after 2026 so also has three seasons left of control (including 2024), and he's making only $800,000 this season, increasing his trade value even more.
Of course, Sale was an established star, whereas Crochet has pitched at this level for just three months. Still, with 3.8 WAR, Crochet compares favorably with the top starters traded over the past five deadlines:
2023: Justin Verlander (2.2 WAR)
2022: Luis Castillo (2.9 WAR)
2021: Max Scherzer (3.3 WAR)
2019: Zack Greinke (4.3 WAR)
2018: Cole Hamels (1.3 WAR)
Given Crochet's contract and years remaining until free agency, if the White Sox do decide to trade him, it will shake up the deadline with a rarely available top-of-the-rotation starter on an inexpensive contract. Yes, there will be concerns about Crochet's durability, and the White Sox have already started conserving his innings -- "We're going to start dwindling his workload down a little bit, and we'll manage that correctly," manager Pedro Grifol said last week -- but Crochet projects as a difference-maker in October.
The White Sox don't have to trade him, but what are the odds of them building a playoff contender before Crochet is eligible for free agency? Unless they think there's a chance of signing him to a long-term extension that takes him into his free agent years, his value is so high right now, and the lack of talent on the roster so acute, it makes sense to try to pull off a blockbuster deal.
Orioles/Dodgers/Brewers/Padres: Trade for Crochet
Which teams would be most likely to land Crochet? His salary means any team can afford him, but history suggests teams already in a strong playoff position are the ones most likely to make a trade like this, not a team merely fighting to stay in the wild-card race. Consider those pitchers above:
-- Verlander: Astros were a half-game out of first place
-- Castillo: Mariners were well out of first place but were in a wild-card position and trying to end a long playoff drought
-- Scherzer: Dodgers were battling the Giants for the NL West lead
-- Greinke: Astros had a big lead and were on their way to 107 wins
-- Hamels: Cubs were 1.5 games up on the Brewers
In order to acquire Crochet, a team will also need a top farm system. The Yankees and Phillies don't really need a starting pitcher, so that leaves four teams most likely to make a push for Crochet.
Orioles: Baltimore is best positioned to make a deal and has the need, with Kyle Bradish and John Means out for the season. The White Sox will want Jackson Holliday, and the Orioles will likely balk at that, but third baseman Coby Mayo, catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo and outfielder Heston Kjerstad were all on Kiley McDaniel's updated top 50 prospects list, with Mayo at No. 6 and Basallo at No. 16.
Dodgers: The Dodgers could use an outfielder but might also be a little nervous about their rotation with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler currently on the injured list, Bobby Miller scuffling since his return and Clayton Kershaw just beginning his minor league rehab. They don't have a prospect as highly rated as Holliday, Mayo or Basallo, but -- as always -- they have a ton of depth, with major-league-ready pitching help or high-upside position players in the low minors, such as outfielder Josue De Paula and shortstop Joendry Vargas.
Brewers: Milwaukee leads the NL Central despite a mediocre rotation, and Crochet's salary fits its budget. The problem is the Brewers' top two prospects are hard-throwing righty Jacob Misiorowski, who has struggled with his control in Double-A and might end up a reliever, and catcher Jeferson Quero, who has played just one game after injuring his shoulder in the first game of the season.
Padres: The Padres aren't in first place, but general manager A.J. Preller is still under a lot of pressure to win now and he might view Crochet as a chance to acquire a player they need without bumping up payroll -- even if it means trading teenage catcher Ethan Salas (the top international prospect in 2023) or shortstop Leo De Vries (the top international prospect in 2024).
Of course, we can't rule out the Yankees, especially if Carlos Rodon and Luis Gil continue to regress from hot starts or if Gerrit Cole keeps giving up four home runs a game, but I would bet on one of the above four teams.
Phillies/Cardinals: Trade for Luis Robert Jr.
We're not done with the White Sox. Look, indications are a Robert trade is unlikely. He's signed through 2027 on a reasonable deal ($20 million per year the final two seasons), so the White Sox are going to want a huge return. The concern in acquiring Robert is that he has missed significant time in 2021, 2022 and this season, when he missed two months with a right hip flexor strain. Is he worth the risk? When healthy in 2023, we saw his all-around impact: 38 home runs, a Gold Glove, 5.0 WAR.
The Phillies are all-in for 2024 as much as any team besides the Yankees and Dodgers. They have the best rotation in the majors. They have a big lead over the Braves in the NL East. Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber are all in their 30s. They're getting career years from Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez. This might be their best chance to win it all with this group.
They need a center fielder though: That group is hitting just .234/.289/.319 with four home runs, and Johan Rojas hasn't played the elite defense he displayed last season (and had been sent to the minors before getting recalled when Schwarber injured his groin). Robert would cost the Phillies some combination of their top four prospects -- Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, Mick Abel -- plus a couple of lower-level guys, and the White Sox might demand Sanchez, but we know president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn't afraid of making the big deal.
Similar to Philadelphia, St. Louis could also use help in center field.
That position has long been a revolving door of sorts for the Cardinals: The last player to start 110 games there was Jon Jay way back in 2013. They were going to play Tommy Edman out there, but he has been out all season after wrist surgery. Lars Nootbaar got injured. Victor Scott was rushed to the majors and didn't hit. Michael Siani has been excellent defensively but hasn't hit much either. The Cardinals are in a wild-card position despite a lackluster offense and minus-40 run differential, but Robert would help the offense and give them stability in center field for the future. Right-hander Tink Hence was the only Cardinals prospect on the top 50 list, but they have an interesting farm system and young players like Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera who could be included in a deal.
Blue Jays: Trade away Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette
I dislike advocating for teams to blow things up, but the Blue Jays are fading fast, sitting in last place in the AL East. Guerrero and Bichette are eligible for free agency after 2025, and the Jays could always roll back with a similar team next season; after all, their window to compete has always been tied to the club control of Guerrero and Bichette. It just doesn't seem to be working with this roster, however, with some of the blame falling on Guerrero failing to repeat his superstar numbers of 2021 and Bichette delivering a subpar offensive performance so far this season.
General manager Ross Atkins, after saying in early June that trading Guerrero and Bichette "doesn't make any sense," appears to be hinting that making some trades is now a possibility. "We've obviously put ourselves into a tough spot over the last seven days," he told reporters last Thursday. "Ten days ago, we were feeling like there was positive momentum, and that has gone away."
The Blue Jays now have a month to get hot and join the wild-card race.
"We're focused on winning. We're focused on building the best possible team we can this year and supporting them the best we can. If we get to a point where we need to adjust, we'll be prepared to do so," Atkins said.
Guerrero is having the better season with a 141 OPS+. That's not 2021, but it's good enough to be a middle-of-the-order hitter for a contender. He's making $19.9 million this year, however, which is a factor in his trade value. Bichette, with a 77 OPS+, is signed for $12.1 million this year and $17.6 million next season. His advanced metrics aren't all that different from previous years, so he feels like a good bet to turn things around.
Astros: Trade for Guerrero
The Astros are the perfect fit when it comes to need: They're last in the majors in OPS at first base and Jonathan Singleton isn't proving to be the answer to replace the released Jose Abreu. The Astros have also surged from a 10-game deficit to put some pressure on Seattle in the AL West race. Their problem is they have one of the weakest farm systems in the majors. Outfielder Jacob Melton did rank No. 39 on Kiley's May update, but his numbers at Double-A aren't anything special. Brice Matthews, the team's first-round pick last year, has reached Double-A and looks interesting.
The Yankees? Sure, they could use a first baseman after Anthony Rizzo fractured his forearm. He's expected back at some point, but he wasn't doing much before the injury. They did just acquire J.D. Davis from the A's, while rookie Ben Rice also has some potential. I just don't see the Blue Jays trading Guerrero to the Yankees -- even if Guerrero did recently say he'd be open to playing for the Yankees, walking back comments he had made in 2022 that he would never sign with them.
Braves: Trade for Bichette
Yes, the Braves need an outfielder with Ronald Acuna Jr. out for the season and Michael Harris II injured, but shortstop Orlando Arcia has been a zero on offense -- a big step back from 2023, when he was a major part of the Braves' record-setting offense, hitting .264 with 17 home runs and starting the All-Star Game. Like every Braves hitter except Marcell Ozuna, Arcia has regressed in a big way, hitting .211 with a .245 OBP. He does provide good defense, but Bichette could be an impact player for 2024 and 2025. The Braves' system is pitching heavy, so if the Blue Jays want potential impact hitters in return for Bichette, this might not be a match. Additionally, acquiring Bichette would further hike the Braves' luxury tax payment (not that they can't afford it).
Tigers: Trade away Jack Flaherty
After signing a one-year, $14 million deal with Detroit, Flaherty is healthy, has rediscovered his slider and is putting together his best season since he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting with St. Louis in 2019. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has improved from 1.50 in 2022 and 2.24 in 2023 to a sterling 8.21 in 2024. The Tigers aren't completely dead, but with their playoff odds hovering around 4% and Flaherty arguably the top starting pitcher available, I think they should cash in on what proved to be one of the best signings of the offseason.
Guardians/Twins/Diamondbacks: Trade for Flaherty
All the teams we listed above for Crochet would be candidates for Flaherty as well, but these are three teams that need starting pitching help but probably don't have the farm system to get in on any Crochet deals.
Guardians: The offense has been way better than expected, although it still relies heavily on strong numbers with runners in scoring position, and the bullpen has been the best in the majors. No first-place team needs a starting pitcher more than Cleveland, however, as Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie have ERAs over 5.00 (and McKenzie was just sent to the minors) and Ben Lively is outpitching his FIP by more than a run. Flaherty would become the Guardians' No. 1 starter.
Twins: With Royce Lewis healthy and a rejuvenated Carlos Correa, the Twins are scoring runs again, but they're 24th in the majors in rotation ERA. If Pablo Lopez can find his 2023 groove, a rotation with Flaherty, Lopez and Joe Ryan has a chance to make a second-half run at Cleveland atop the division.
Diamondbacks: The rotation looked like it might be a strength for Arizona, but free agent Jordan Montgomery has been a disaster, Merrill Kelly is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder issue and second-year righties Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson haven't improved as hoped. But, in the muddled NL wild-card race, the Diamondbacks are still in it and can point to last season as inspiration to "just get in and anything can happen."
Marlins: Trade away Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The Jazz era has never quite taken off in Miami, and given the disastrous season for the Marlins, maybe it's time for them to get creative and think about dealing Chisholm. Outside of reliever Tanner Scott, the Marlins don't have many players with trade value -- especially with Jesus Luzardo on the 60-day IL -- and there are several contenders who could use an upgrade in center field. Chisholm is the one Marlins player with an above-average OPS -- he's at .747, which is better than what 25 teams are receiving from their center fielders. He's making only $2.625 million this year and has two more years of arbitration, so that makes him attractive as well.
Pirates/Reds: Trade for Chisholm
With Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones, the Pirates are a team that could do some damage in the postseason; they just have to get in. Yeah, yeah, yeah -- making big and exciting moves isn't exactly in the Pirates' playbook. The last time they tried this, when they traded Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz for Chris Archer in 2018, it was a disaster. But this is an organization that needs to take some chances, otherwise they're going to be stuck in the mud forever. They rank last in the majors in OPS from center field, so making a run at Chisholm and solving the hole there makes sense.
The Reds' offense, meanwhile, has disappointed, and their outfielders rank near the bottom in the majors in OPS, home runs and batting average. TJ Friedl can't stay healthy, Will Benson is hitting under .200 and Jake Fraley's OPS is down more than 100 points as he has hit just one home run. Added bonus if this trade were to happen: Chisholm and Elly De La Cruz on the same team!
Yankees/Angels: Trade for/trade away Luis Rengifo
It's not exactly accurate to say the Yankees need offense -- after all, only the Orioles are scoring more runs per game. It is fair to say, however, that the offense is heavily reliant on Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and could use depth. Besides first base, which we mentioned above, third base and second base have also been problem areas. Good luck finding upgrades there. One possible addition: Rengifo, who is hitting .317 with a .362 OBP. He's not really a .317 hitter, but he's a solid-average offensive player, can play third or second and is under team control through 2025.
The Angels could throw in closer Carlos Estevez, who hits free agency after the season, as the Yankees also need some bullpen depth. Rengifo and Estevez are making just over $11 million combined, but one-third of that is less than $4 million -- loose change for the Yankees. The Angels have a bunch of other spare parts: Reliever Matt Moore might draw some interest, although he hasn't pitched all that well, and veteran outfielder Kevin Pillar has posted a .911 OPS in limited duty with Los Angeles this season.
Mets: Trade for Erick Fedde
This is more notable for what we're not suggesting: Trading away Pete Alonso or Luis Severino or J.D. Martinez or Harrison Bader or Jose Quintana or Adam Ottavino, who are all heading into free agency. A month ago, when the Mets were 24-35, it looked like they would be in position to flood the trade market with expiring contracts -- with Alonso as the big headliner. They've turned it around, and suddenly the lineup with Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez all hitting alongside Alonso and Martinez looks as good as any in the NL.
So, for the moment, the Mets look like adders. On the other hand, they're also just a .500 team and they're not catching the Phillies atop the division. With so many roster spots to fill next season, it doesn't make sense to go overboard in trading prospects just to reach a wild-card series -- and president of baseball operations David Stearns won't do anything silly, that's for sure. In fact, there's even an opportunity for the Mets to play both sides of the deadline here, although that wouldn't go over well for a big-market franchise.
Fedde feels like a good option, though. In another astute move by the White Sox, they signed him after a year in Korea and he has been very good, cutting way down on his walk rate while increasing his strikeout rate (he's dumped his curveball and added a sweeper while throwing his changeup more often). He signed a two-year deal, so the added advantage is he would replace one of those departing free agents in the rotation. The White Sox might be unwilling to trade both Crochet and Fedde -- somebody has to pitch! -- but there will be a lot of interest in Fedde as well.
Rays: Trade away Zach Eflin
It just doesn't look like the Rays' year: They're hovering around .500 despite a minus-56 run differential thanks to a 16-7 record in one-run games, but that run differential is a better indicator of the team's quality than the record in one-run games. While the Rays have seemingly had an endless ability to find and develop pitchers, that hasn't been the case in 2024, as too many injuries have finally caught up to them and they're 23rd in the majors in ERA. I wouldn't expect a second-half surge here, so the Rays could really spice up the trade deadline if they look to retool and make players like Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena available.
But Eflin is the most likely big name to get traded. He hasn't been quite as good as last season -- his strikeout rate has dipped from 9.4 to 7.1 K's per nine -- but he has issued just seven walks in 87⅓ innings and would make a nice midtier addition to a contender's rotation. He's signed for one more year and his salary jumps from $11 million to $18 million in 2025, making a trade even more of a possibility.
Mariners/Giants: Trade for/trade away LaMonte Wade Jr.
The Mariners are in first place in the AL West but have issues all over the place, starting with a lineup that in one recent 10-game stretch had hit totals of 6, 5, 5, 3, 7, 15, 6, 5 and 3. From June 11 to June 29, they hit .196 -- including that 15-hit game -- yet still managed to go 9-8. That isn't going to work all season. They also have concerns about bullpen depth, and even the rotation hasn't been locked down of late, with Luis Castillo scuffling, the league figuring out Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo unable to stay healthy.
Realistically, the Mariners need two big bats. Take their Saturday lineup, for example: J.P. Crawford hitting leadoff (.215 average), Julio Rodriguez hitting second (.247, one double in his past 42 games), Cal Raleigh batting third (.202) and Mitch Garver hitting cleanup (.172). You're trying to hold off the Astros with that?
This is a franchise that spent the offseason rejiggering its roster in order to avoid increasing payroll. Even if Guerrero or Alonso were available, it seems unlikely the Mariners would trade for them (unless the Blue Jays or Mets covered some of their remaining salary in exchange for a better prospect). The Mariners do have an excellent farm system at the top with Colt Emerson, Cole Young and Harry Ford emerging as top-50 prospects and Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celestin as top-100 guys (and pitcher Logan Evans, one of the minors' top breakout performers). They have the need ... but do they have the willpower? Realistically, they need a first base/DH-type plus a corner outfielder. The less glamorous options might include Tommy Pham or Mark Canha, but I like Wade (hitting .326 with a .460 OBP) to give them some much-needed on-base skills.
As for the Giants, certainly if Blake Snell and Robbie Ray return successfully from their rehab assignments, they could make a run at a wild-card spot over the final two months, but they'll have to get hot in the next three weeks. Maybe that will happen, but this just doesn't have the feel of a playoff team. Wade is under team control through 2025, but with so few good bats likely available, the Giants should see what they can get for him.
Cubs/Rockies: Trade for/trade away Elias Diaz
The Rockies rarely do anything significant at the trade deadline, but Diaz is heading into free agency, so even the Rockies might consider making a deal here. Cubs catchers -- mostly Miguel Amaya -- have been a debacle, with a .466 OPS that ranks better only than the Marlins (both teams are on pace for historically awful offensive seasons from their catchers). Diaz would be a significant upgrade. But are the Cubs even in a position to add? After an excellent April, they were 13 games under .500 between May and June.
Royals: Trade for Tommy Pham
The Royals need outfield and bullpen help. Their outfield production has been particularly pitiful, hitting .215 with a .275 OBP -- a reminder that the Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier signings, part of the big offseason spending spree, have not paid dividends. Only the Blue Jays and White Sox have a lower OPS from their outfielders. Besides Pham or Canha for the outfield, adding a couple of relievers will also be a goal, although we'll have to wait for the NL wild-card picture to shake itself out a bit before we know which relievers might be available.
Nationals: Trade away Jesse Winker
It feels like the Nationals have done about as well as they would with this roster -- and they're just barely hanging in there in the wild-card race (a 7-0 record against the Marlins has helped). They just called up top prospect James Wood, who had a 1.058 OPS in Triple-A, so that will be exciting, but it also gives them the excuse to trade Winker, who has rebounded from a 58 OPS+ with the Brewers last season to post a 129 OPS+ this year. He has played a lot of left field for the Nationals, but a contending team would be best advised to use him strictly at DH (the Mariners would be a good fit, except Winker wore out his welcome there when he played for Seattle in 2022).
Athletics: Trade away Brent Rooker
Everyone is trying to get the A's to trade closer Mason Miller and his billion-miles-per-hour fastball, but that feels like wishful speculation to spice up the rumor mill. How about Rooker though? He's likely headed to his second straight All-Star Game as a DH, ranking among AL leaders in OPS. He doesn't even enter his first year of arbitration until next year, but he's also 29 years old, has limited defensive value, strikes out a ton and is a streaky hitter. With that profile, it might behoove the A's to trade him now while his numbers look pretty. The Cardinals and Guardians are among the teams who could upgrade at DH, and maybe the Dodgers or Braves would be willing to play him in left field.
Red Sox: Trade for Yusei Kikuchi
The Red Sox are too good to punt, but too far behind the Orioles and Yankees in the division to go all-in with a major trade that will deplete the farm system. They don't have a glaring hole, although the rotation hasn't been as dominant of late after a hot start -- plus, they'll have to worry about Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford reaching career highs in innings soon. They could also upgrade DH -- although, they're paying Masataka Yoshida a lot of money -- or shortstop, so that they could move Ceddanne Rafaela back to the outfield. Starting pitcher feels like the need here, though. Besides those we've mentioned, if the Blue Jays do indeed decide to deal players away, add Kikuchi to the list since he's heading to free agency.
Rangers: Trade away Michael Lorenzen
Finally, we wrap up with the defending World Series champs, who are somehow hanging out with the dreadful Angels in the division standings as opposed to the Mariners and Astros. Even if they had planned to just remain close until Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom returned, I don't think they expected to be this far back with the offense struggling this much -- and then Corey Seager got hit by a pitch in the hand on Saturday. The Rangers are sort of playing with house money anyway (flags fly forever!), so I wouldn't expect any aggressive additions here. Their best chance of clawing back is simply for last year's offense to start showing up.