The bantamweight division returns to center stage when Marlon Vera goes head-to-head with Dominick Cruz at the Pechanga Arena in San Diego on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).
Vera, ranked No. 6 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Rob Font in April. Vera is riding a three-fight win streak. Cruz, ranked No. 10 in ESPN's rankings, notched a unanimous decision win over Pedro Munhoz in his prior bout at UFC 269 in December. Rising featherweight contenders Nate Landwehr and David Onama are set to fight in the co-main event. Onama has back-to-back finishes in his past two fights.
Marc Raimondi touched base Fortis MMA head coach Sayif Saud to get his perspective on the matchup in the main event and how things could play out inside the Octagon. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
Bantamweight: Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA head coach
How Vera wins: I think "Chito" Vera has to pressure Dominick. That's what Vera does, puts pressure on people. He's such a hard worker. He's got good striking everywhere, good elbows in the clinch, good hands. He brings it. I think Vera is gonna try to walk in on Cruz, get in on him and try to wear him out. You saw Pedro Munhoz try to get Cruz hurt and pressure him, but Cruz is so smart. That's a perfect example of how smart he is. Vera needs to do something similar and try to be physical with Cruz.
How Cruz wins: Cruz is so intelligent. People forget how much of a winner Dominick is. He had those injuries, but the guy is 24-3. And his losses were against top fighters like Henry Cejudo, Cody Garbrandt and Urijah Faber. He's gonna look to implement angles, his game planning and timely takedowns. He has one of the best knee taps in the game and one of the best transitional games. Cruz was an MMA fighter when guys were still one dimensional. He needs to keep Vera off balance, hit him with those fakes and feints and angles. Mix it up. He can't allow Vera to pressure him the way Chito did to Font. When Vera starts to get his jab going and starts walking in, he's a real problem. Cruz needs to create angles and opportunities to score. He can hurt Vera too. Dominick doesn't get enough respect for still doing what he's doing the way he's doing it.
X factor: Strength. I wonder how physically strong the two are compared to one another. Vera is looking like he's getting stronger and stronger. He's 29 years old now and growing into that man's body. He's the type of guy that works so hard on his craft. Vera's work ethic is second to none. He appears to be much more physically strong than he used to be, he must have a great strength and conditioning program. We'll see how that plays into this fight. Both are creative enough to score on the feet, but the strength in the grappling and clinching will be interesting to see.
Prediction: I think this is gonna be a hell of a fight. I think Vera has a little bit of an advantage just from a physicality standpoint, and he can maybe catch Dominick in striking. But as long as the fight goes on, look for Cruz to implement his IQ. The longer it goes, Cruz has the advantage. I just feel like Dominick doesn't get the credit he deserves because people don't remember all the sustained greatness -- and all of it is with his mind. You've got to admire that.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Cruz to win (+200). Normally, an older fighter who has taken damage over the years would be an obvious fade against a much younger, bigger knockout threat. But despite the inactivity of Cruz, we still have three fights in the past five years to pull from, and his wrestling remains an effective countermeasure against the skills Marlon Vera possesses.
Cruz has sometimes been content to stand and trade, but hopefully, his other job as a UFC analyst recognizes the opportunity to take the fight down and keep it there. Though Vera does have some submissions, he has spent the majority of his ground time on his back. Cruz has the wrestling pedigree to exploit that, but only if he minimizes his time spent at a distance. It's certainly not a big play on the underdog, but at current prices there's value in the former champ.
Parker: Vera to win (-240). Coming off his most impressive win to date, Vera will be looking to take one step closer to his first title shot with a win over former champion Cruz. If this was a three-round fight, I would say that Cruz has a great chance here as Vera always starts off slow and doesn't really get going until Rounds 2 and 3. However, this is a five-round fight which fits perfectly in Vera's style and pace.
Look for Vera to analyze Cruz's footwork in Round 1 and then step on the gas in Round 2 with offensive pressure and a heavy striking output. For Cruz, his path to victory is to put Vera on his back and keep him there; unfortunately, that is easier said than done, as Vera has solid takedown defense and is extremely active off his back. Cruz is also very durable, so taking Vera at plus odds by decision is not a bad play, but at the moment the odds are low enough to take him on the money line.
Best bets on other main card fights
David Onama vs. Nate Landwehr
Kuhn: Onama to win (-300). Onama is a young, rangy featherweight with high volume and precise striking. And all of those attributes pair well against Landwehr, who historically has shown poor head strike defense. Onama is still relatively young at 28, but he's looking like someone who could continue to get better and make some noise in the division.
Parker: Onama to win inside the distance. In what could be the fight of the night, Onama and Landwehr always bring it and look for a finish. Coming off back-to-back wins by stoppage, I think Onama will make it a third straight victory, this time against the aggressive and very hittable Landwehr. As we saw in his most recent fight, not only does Onama have what it takes to get it done on the feet, but he showed great fight smarts and got the submission win. Look for Onama to keep the fight on the feet for a bit until he feels a few shots from Landwehr and then take it to the ground, where he will have the advantage in top position.
Nina Nunes vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Kuhn: Calvillo to win (-170). Nunes will be moving up from strawweight to flyweight to take on Calvillo. Ignoring the weight class change, Nunes will have a tough matchup on the ground against Calvillo, who has dominated the minutes she has spent on the mat so far.
Nunes does have the busier and more accurate striking but hasn't shown much power fighting on her feet. And with below average defense, her aggressive pace could open up counters from Calvillo, be they strikes or takedowns. If Calvillo gets the fight to the ground in each round, she should win on the scorecards.
Parker: Nunes to win (+145). In what could potentially be a loser-leaves-town match, both women will be looking to get back in the win column. The main difference between the two is the wrestling acumen of Calvillo. However, it seems that she has forgotten how to use it and is too much in love with the idea of striking. She also has been finished in her past two fights and has not found a way to bounce back, so I am going with the underdog here in Nunes.
Nunes lost via armbar to Mackenzie Dern in her most recent fight and before that dropped a decision to Tatianna Suarez, who happens to be a better wrestler then Calvillo. I believe this fight will stay on the feet, and in that case, I favor Nunes, who is the better striker and also has better cardio.
Bruno Silva vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Kuhn: Meerschaert to win (+250). Veteran Meerschaert might not ever put together the streak necessary for a title run, but he is a wild card no matter the opponent. He is rangy, accurate on his feet and quick to apply submissions once on the ground.
The matchup with Silva is still dangerous, given the Brazilian fighter's history of striking finishes, but Meerschaert is the type of underdog who can cash out of nowhere. Lots of finishing potential in this fight, as well.
Parker: Silva to win by KO/TKO (-310). Silva will be looking to bounce back from his last loss to Alex Pereira with a win over the crafty Meerschaert. For Meerschaert, there is a path to least resistance against Silva, and that's putting him on his back and working his jiu-jitsu skills. However, Meerschaert is not the type to follow a game plan until he is in panic mode, and against Silva that might be too little too late. Look for Silva to avoid the ground and land hard punches early en route to another KO/TKO finish.