Marina Rodriguez has a chance to place her name firmly in the race for the next women's strawweight title shot as she faces fellow title hopeful Amanda Lemos in the UFC Fight Night main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
Rodriguez, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, has won four fights in a row, with her past three wins coming via decision. Lemos, ranked No. 9 in ESPN's rankings, enters the bout following a second-round submission victory over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.
Marc Raimondi spoke to UFC women's strawweight Angela Hill for her thoughts on the matchup. Hill fought Lemos in Dec. 2021. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Women's strawweight: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos
Angela Hill, UFC women's strawweight fighter
How Rodriguez wins: I think her patience will do well in this fight. As long as she's drawing out those big kicks, those big punches, she'll be able to nip away at Lemos. Rodriguez has really good setups with the leg kicks. She's good at closing the distance to get to the clinch, to get to a place where she can score against the fence. Rodriguez doesn't usually go for ground stuff, but when she gets roped into a scramble, she does a good job making it difficult for the person on top trying to score. Rodriguez is good at staying ahead on points. She has had good volume since her UFC debut. That's why she's gotten a few draws, rather than losses in those fights. She throws punches in bunches, while Lemos waits for that one big moment. If Lemos doesn't get that, she'll fall behind.
How Lemos wins: She's going to wait a lot. That's her style. And then she puts everything into one strike. But in order to win this fight, she has to put together a couple of good hits before the big shots. She needs to feint, to draw something out of Rodriguez, then follow that. She can't just wait for one big punch or kick. Rodriguez has to be backed up before Lemos can see that opening, and the only way to do that is for Lemos to throw more. Lemos got a nice submission in her last fight. She can use that momentum, and work the grappling if Rodriguez has a higher output volume on the feet. Lemos can be the powerhouse and use her pressure to intimidate Rodriguez, then land the big shot when she sees the opening. Her striking is a bit overrated. Her two knockouts before her fight with me were stopped a little early. When she has her moments, she hits really hard. But it's usually one moment per fight. Lemos is a little green on the ground, too.
X-factor: Lemos' size and strength, but only in the first round. I don't think she has a cardio issue, necessarily. She just has a lot of strength in the first round and doesn't have the same pop in later rounds. For Rodriguez, it's just her volume. She throws so much and has good precision with her punches.
Prediction: I think if Rodriguez's chin is feeling good, she's going to take it. You just have to survive that first blow, that first big one then you can, kind of, coast to victory. I'll say Rodriguez by decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Rodriguez to win (-210). Rodriguez has been calling for a title shot, and she believes that a win over Lemos will put her next in line. Rodriguez is one of the best strikers in the division with great takedown defense as well. She has to use her speed and cardio to get the win here. Lemos has ridiculous power, but she tends to slow down as the fight goes on. If Rodriguez can push the pace early, keep the fight standing, and stay away from the power of Lemos, she should either finish the fight in the fourth round or take a lopsided decision.
Kuhn: Pass. Odds were much closer at the opening, but in the past week, the market has pushed Rodriguez to more than a two-to-one favorite, nullifying most value in backing her against Lemos. It's a close matchup on paper, in a fight likely to spend long periods on the feet.
In striking, Lemos has better than a puncher's chance. She's already recorded five knockdowns in her short UFC career, more than any fighter on this card and also the highest on a per strike basis. That's saying something for a strawweight, who shares this card with heavyweights and sluggers like Daniel Rodriguez.
Lemos is also a dual-threat finisher, with multiple submission wins and finishes by strikes. But Rodriguez has yet to be finished in a loss, and her only two decision losses came in fights where her opponents landed numerous takedowns.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Kuhn: Rodriguez to win (+100). In what could close as a pick 'em matchup, the co-main event will also be a stylistic mismatch. Rodriguez, who prefers to stand and trade leather, will have clear striking advantages over the veteran Magny. We've backed Magny plenty of times, counting on his ground game to decide the fight. But Rodriguez has solid takedown defense and has found a way to win even when receiving multiple takedowns in fights.
Assuming that Rodriguez can keep most of each round standing, he'll have the opportunity to test Magny's chin, which has absorbed eight career knockdowns already. Whether Rodriguez returns even money or closes as a clear underdog, he's worth a shot.
Parker: Magny to win (-120). Rodriguez is a good boxer, but in his last fight, he showed a lack of volume and a lack of intensity we are used to seeing from him. Magny, however, always pushes the pace and pours on the volume which I believe Rodriguez will struggle with. Rodriguez doesn't bring anything to the table that Magny hasn't seen, and as long as Magny doesn't get cracked early, I think this is a perfect bounce-back fight for him.
Men's flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness
Kuhn: Ulanbekov to win (-210). There's a potential mismatch in this one. Ulanbekov carries the reputation of a Dagestani grappler and has the dominant metrics to prove it. Though Maness has above-average takedown defense, it may not stand up to the constant attempts from Ulanbekov. And once taken down, Maness has been held there for more than two minutes per takedown received.
On the feet, we still see some favorable metrics for Ulanbekov. Though he's the smaller fighter, he's far busier and more accurate with his hands, and has better striking defense. The wild card is Maness's superior power. He could have opportunities to throw counters against Ulanbekov's aggressive forward pace. But those opportunities will be fleeting, as the strikes will also set up takedown attempts. Plenty to like in this matchup for Ulanbekov.
Women's flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young
Parker: Maverick inside the distance (+100). Maverick is the better fighter wherever the fight will go. We have seen Young struggle early and then come back to win, but I don't see that happening here. Look for Maverick to use her striking to set up her takedowns, once on the mat Young will not have any answers. Maverick likely gets this one done inside the distance.
Bantamweight: Mario Bautista vs. Benito Lopez
Parker: Bautista to win (-300). In his last fight, Bautista's striking was efficient and fast. When the fight hit the ground, he will take the back of his opponent and lock in the submission. I see this fight going in a similar fashion. Lopez is a tough fighter, with unpredictable striking. Unless he lands something miraculous, I think he will struggle from bell to bell against Bautista.