Middleweight champion Alex Pereira goes for his first UFC title defense as he takes on former division champ Israel Adesanya at UFC 287. The event takes place at Kaseya Center in Miami on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
Pereira, tied for No. 10 on ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, beat Adesanya to claim the title at UFC 281 in November last year. Adesanya, ranked ahead of Pereira at No. 5, held the UFC middleweight title from April 2019 through November 2022. Including their kickboxing history, this will be the fourth matchup between these two fighters. Pereira has won each of the previous fights.
In the co-main event, Jorge Masvidal will make his first Octagon appearance of the year in his hometown against Gilbert Burns.
Masvidal, unranked by ESPN, is currently riding a three-fight losing streak. Burns, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, beat Neil Magny by first-round submission in his last fight.
On Friday night, the PFL will continue its regular season with the heavyweight and women's featherweights as the promotion hosts PFL 2 at The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas. The main event will feature last season's women's lightweight champion Larissa Pacheco fighting Julia Budd. Bruno Cappelozza will fight Matheus Scheffel in the co-main event.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA coach Eddie Cha to get his perspective on the main and co-main events. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the UFC 287 card. Parker also provides his take on the best bets on Friday's PFL 2 fight card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight title fight: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Pereira wins: Similar to the last fight. Calf kicks were the biggest difference in that one. Everyone talked about the power, but the calf kicks bothered Adesanya the most. He had to switch stances constantly. Pereira has to continue to kick the leg. Even if Adesanya goes southpaw, he has to kick the inside leg or the outside when he goes orthodox. And then the other thing: Don't wait until the fifth round. If I were Pereira, I'd have something planned, like the last 90 seconds or even the last minute of each round, to go for it. That way, you rest a minute between rounds and then stall out the first 30 or 40 seconds of the next round. It's like a two-minute gap to rest. I'd want five chances to get the finish, rather than just waiting until the last round.
How Adesanya wins: I think he's going to circle to the right a bit more, because of that calf kick. I think he'll go southpaw more, and he's even going to wrestle more, too. Adesanya won four and a half rounds of the last fight, so he needs to be technical and clean out there. Adesanya has to be perfect for 25 minutes. It's a tough task against a guy with the kind of power Pereira has. But he has done it before, even in his kickboxing matches.
X factor: Pereira's power. He has power for 25 minutes. It's pretty damn scary. But I think we will see wrestling from Adesanya, which might be his X factor. The wrestling and clinch work that Adesanya did in the last fight, you could tell it took Pereira's cardio completely out of the game.
Prediction: I think Pereira wins again in the later rounds. I'm going to say by knockout. I'm not sure if he wins it by decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Adesanya to win (-140). There might be lots of parallels to the Usman-Edwards title rematch from last month, but we have to remember that we'll still get two independently motivated, champion-caliber middleweights facing off, who don't care what happened recently at welterweight. Adesanya is trying to figure out what went wrong in the fifth round of a fight he was just minutes away from winning, while Periera is hoping to replicate the magic that pulled off the stunning late stoppage.
That Pereira is the more aggressive striker is not in question. It is whether Adesanya can leverage his slick counterstriking to take advantage of that aggression. Pereira has looser defense overall, and in a shootout, could take just as much damage (or more) than he dishes out. Now factor in that Adesanya started invoking a previously untapped ground game in the last fight, and we see that he might have two paths to victory.
Obviously, it's hard to tell which fighter made better adjustments since the last fight until we see them go toe to toe. But Adesanya's career of work is more dependable, proving he's an excellent long-range striker. More recently, he showed he could hurt Pereira in the pocket and even take him down and leverage ground control. We're seeing a more appropriate price this time around, but the numbers still lean toward Adesanya.
Parker: Over 3.5 rounds. In their last fight, Adesanya looked en route to another successful title defense, being up on the judges' scorecards heading into the fifth and final round. During his time as the champ of the middleweight division, five of his seven fights before the Pereira bout went the full five rounds, win or lose. On the other hand, Pereira has shown the ability to finish a fight at any time, with knockouts in three of his four UFC fights. I expect Adesanya to follow a similar blueprint as the last time they fought, minus backing himself up against the cage and giving Pereira an opportunity to land. Because of how the last one ended, I will take a safer approach than picking a side and go with over 3.5 rounds. The result aside, I believe this fight will look similar to the last one, which made it to the fifth.
Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready MMA coach
How Burns wins: I'm glad that Burns is seeing he can use his best path to victory against guys he doesn't have to go out and have a striking match with. It levels the playing field. The obvious path is for Burns to use his grappling. He's a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner.
How Masvidal wins: Anti-wrestling. Masvidal has to stay composed. He can't overthrow his punches and get off balance, which he never traditionally does. But something that can help him is to get low and aim body shots to help him stay hunkered down. I think the other thing, too, that he didn't use as well in the Colby Covington fight was lead arm frames. Often in grappling, we start with the over-under position with our arms. There's another layer of defense there, and it's the frames. So if Masvidal throws a rear shot, that lead arm must be near the shoulder to frame and keep the chest-to-chest action away. Using those frames is imperative for Masvidal to keep this fight standing.
X factor: The Miami crowd. It's big for Masvidal. He's arguably the king of the city. So, the X factor could be the hometown crowd. Sometimes, it could be a disadvantage for guys if they're playing too much to the crowd. But this is something that's going to help Masvidal.
Prediction: This is tough because Masvidal has the skill set to win this fight. Burns is better all around when it comes to the feet to the floor. It'll be 1-1 going into the third round, and the final round will go to the guy with the better cardio. I think Masvidal can steal rounds away. I really do. But Burns wrestling and grappling will get the job done by decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds. Burns carries tremendous power in his hands and is an ace on the mat in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, four of his past five fights went to Round 3 or a decision. Burns will be looking to make a statement with a dominant win, but as we have seen throughout his career, Masvidal is tough to put away.
Burns is a 4-1 favorite, and I expect him to get the job done here. But if he is looking for a finish, he must get Masvidal down to the ground early and use his world-class jiu-jitsu. However, Masvidal is good enough to keep the fight standing for the better half of the first round. Eventually, once it hits the floor, Masvidal will go into survival mode, allowing him to make it to the second round. Instead of taking Burns to win inside the distance, I am going with over 1.5 rounds. The win on the big stage against a popular name in Masvidal is all that Burns needs to do to get himself a title contender fight next.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Men's bantamweight: Rob Font vs. Adrian Yanez
Kuhn: Font to win (+165). For a potential upset, consider the veteran Font, who is being used as a gatekeeper to test whether Yanez can live up to the hype built by an impressive win streak. One might argue that Yanez's victories are inflated because they came against opponents who have since washed out of the UFC. Based on performance metrics alone, Font matches up well.
Yanez has proven he has power, and engaging in a standup war would be his preference against an older, more damaged opponent in Font. But Font has been tested against elite strikers before, and his accuracy and pace are enough to score well and win rounds, while his wrestling is a backup that could put Yanez at a bigger disadvantage.
This fight feels close to a coin flip, in which case there's plenty of value in the betting line for Font.
Parker: Over 2.5 rounds. After securing knockout victories in his first three UFC fights, Yanez showed true grit in his split-decision 2021 win against Davey Grant. That fight showed that Yanez was truly ready for a step up against the top of the division. However, before that step up, Yanez made a pit stop to TKO a rival in Tony Kelley in the first round last June. Yanez will now get the proper step up in Font, who has been fighting the cream of the division's crop for the better part of five years. A win over Yanez can get Font back on track toward a title shot. This should be a very technical fight between two elite strikers who have proven extremely durable.
Welterweight: Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Kuhn: Holland to win (-260). A safer favorite on the main card would be Holland, hoping to rebound from a tough loss to Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. Holland has slick and rangy striking, and usually is vulnerable only to wrestlers. And that's not what Ponzinibbio offers.
Ponzinibbio is a power striker on the feet, but being much older, more damaged, and with a massive reach disadvantage, he could be fighting uphill against Holland. That allows Holland to play to his strengths by winning the exchanges and accumulating damage. Holland, who will be the much bigger fighter when the cage shuts, also has a submission game to fall back on if he needs it.
Women's strawweight: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Loopy Godinez
Parker: Godinez to win (-270). At one point in her career, Calvillo looked like she had the potential to be a champion. However, since her win over Jessica Eye in 2020, Calvillo has lost four in a row and no longer seems to know who she is as a fighter. This fight against Godinez could be her last if she can't get the win, and this is a bad matchup for Calvillo. Godinez has the better striking and will continue to move forward and catch the wrestling of Calvillo at any point.
Best bets for PFL 2
Women's featherweight: Larissa Pacheco vs. Julia Budd
Parker: Pacheco to win inside the distance. Last season's lightweight winner, Pacheco, returns to the SmartCage on Friday to open the regular season against a former Bellator champion. Budd has struggled in the PFL, going 1-2, and this is a terrible matchup for her. Once considered a one-dimensional grappler, Pacheco has found her striking and has power in her punches. I expect Pacheco to dominate here. Although Budd is a former kickboxing champion, Pacheco should have no issue pressuring forward and overwhelming Budd early and often. I don't expect this fight to go the distance, or even make it out of the first round. Pacheco is that good, and without Kayla Harrison competing this season, Pacheco is the heavy favorite to win it all again.
Heavyweight: Bruno Cappelozza vs. Matheus Scheffel
Parker: Cappelozza to win. After falling short in his first fight last season, Scheffel got the biggest win of his career over Cappelozza, the 2021 PFL heavyweight champion. Cappelozza, who had already clinched a playoff spot then, had to withdraw from the tournament. Scheffel took his place and made a run to the final and a rematch against Ante Delija. Unfortunately for Scheffel, he lost via second-round TKO. Cappelozza can avenge the loss that ended his season as he takes on Scheffel again in the first round of the regular season. This time, no one has clinched the playoffs, everyone is healthy and I fully expect an extremely aggressive and violent Cappelozza to return. Look for Cappelozza to set the tone early and cut off the cage, leaving Scheffel to fight off his back foot. Scheffel had answers last time, but it is too hard to ignore the body of work Cappelozza has put together. I believe he rights that wrong and gets a knockout win in this one.
Women's featherweight: Olena Kolesnyk vs. Aspen Ladd
Parker: Kolesnyk to win. Ladd broke a two-fight losing streak with a split-decision win over Budd in her PFL debut last November. In her first fight of the regular season, Ladd is a 4-1 favorite over Kolesnyk. These odds are extremely wide. I believe it's due to Ladd's popularity rather than her overall skill set. Ladd has the advantage if she gets top position on the ground. However, Koesnyk is physically strong and has good takedown defense, as she has shown against wrestler Abigail Montes. And Koesnyk carries power in her hands. If Ladd fails to get the takedown and the fight remains standing, then a flier on Kolesnyk, who I believe is the better and more powerful striker, is a good play.