UFC women's flyweight champion Alexa Grasso will defend her title in a rematch against former champ Valentina Shevchenko in the main event of Noche UFC at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN+).
Grasso, No. 3 in ESPN's women's pound-for-pound rankings, beat Shevchenko to claim the title at UFC 285 in March. Shevchenko, who is just ahead of Grasso in the P4P rankings, was on a nine-fight win streak before losing to Grasso.
Marc Raimondi spoke to UFC strawweight Angela Hill to get her perspective on the UFC main event and women's flyweight contender Erin Blanchfield offered her analysis to Jeff Wagenheim. ESPN betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Women's flyweight title fight: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Angela Hill, UFC strawweight
How Grasso wins: Doing a lot of what she did in the first fight, including the stance-switching and the 1-2s down the pipe. That tripped up Shevchenko. One thing I know, from training with one of my coaches who has held pads for Grasso, she has a ridiculous amount of power. When you fight someone like that, you can be a little shaken when the first punch connects. Grasso's pressure was excellent the last time, moving in and out, jabbing and then switching the stance to keep Shevchenko guessing. I also liked that Grasso mixed in the takedown attempts in the fourth round. I think even when those don't work, just the fact that she's level-changing is going to stuff a lot of what Valentina tries to throw back at her.
How Shevchenko wins: Keep everything fast and aggressive. She didn't feint that much in the first fight, and I don't think she usually does that. She usually bounces in place and relies on her speed to connect. She had a lot of success with that in the last rounds when Grasso slowed down a bit with her hand speed. If Shevchenko starts feinting, even with her hips -- feinting with her punches, throwing a double jab instead of just that one power jab -- she'll get through a lot more. Shevchenko got Grasso down in the first fight, but you could see Grasso having success and getting out of submission attempts. When she got out of that crucifix position, it drained a lot of energy from Shevchenko. She can catch and release on the ground after takedowns. With that strategy and the feints, she'll have a better time in there.
X factor: Grasso has her own f---ing belt. This is her show. They didn't do that for Shevchenko. Grasso has the people [of Mexico] behind her, like an army. Shevchenko was a super popular champion, but there's nothing like having the support of an entire country. That just exploded once Grasso won the belt. And I don't think she's let off the gas during this fight camp. I think she's been going in there with the same motivation as if she was a contender, just because she has that crazy amount of support.
Prediction: I think Grasso is going to do it again. I felt like I underestimated her last time. Grasso is super underrated. She doesn't fight a ton, so she can improve by leaps and bounds between each fight camp. We have yet to see how good Grasso is. She's going to make a ton of improvements between this fight and the last.
Erin Blanchfield on the one thing each fighter should watch for
Grasso should watch out for the takedowns. I know Shevchenko will use that to try to win the fight. In the first fight, Shevchenko was getting frustrated striking and then used her takedowns to win rounds.
Shevchenko should watch for Grasso fighting southpaw. Grasso could get off slightly more when she switched to southpaw against Shevchenko. She has a good chance to win the fight if she sticks with her striking and adjusts to Grasso switching stances. Shevchenko also should avoid throwing the spinning strikes, Grasso was prepared for those.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Pass, unless prices move further. When Grasso closed at +600 in her first title shot, she was my value play. However, she was arguably down on the cards late in the fight before her shocking submission win. The same dynamics are in play again, but this time, we also have to award Grasso the momentum, given that Shevchenko is now on the wrong side of 35.
Shevchenko is still the more technical striker and is much more elusive than Grasso. Her kicks keep opponents at range, and her ground game is traditionally effective. Grasso may have increased confidence to stand and trade, and at close distance, her submissions keep her as a lively underdog. However, the prices reflect that.
There was value in Grasso early on, but odds have tightened. Unless the market rebounds on Shevchenko when the weekend money comes in, this is a pass. The market could also go too far on Grasso, leaving value on the table for Shevchenko as a justifiable favorite to win at least three rounds.
Parker: Shevchenko to win (-170). This will be the first time since Shevchenko's fight against Amanda Nunes that she will be less than a 2-1 favorite. Many people will lean Grasso, as they believe Shevchenko is on the downslide of her career based on her past two fights. However, we have not seen the last of Shevchenko. And up until that mistake in the first Grasso fight, she was winning and gaining momentum as the fight continued.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Kuhn: Holland to win (+125). Both guys are making a short turnaround after victories, but Holland's submission of Michael Chiesa is much more impressive than Della Maddalena's split-decision win over a UFC rookie. Holland's eight-inch reach advantage should prevent Della Maddalena from being as effective with his standup.
Both guys have submissions (much more so from Holland), though neither has historically effective wrestling. But with ten knockdowns scored between them (and zero received), we might not see this fight get to the ground. At such even odds, the lean for Holland is even worth a little juice, considering he has a path to victory on both levels. Regardless of your side, the market fluctuations suggest price shoppers will be rewarded for their vigilance.
Women's flyweight: Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Kuhn: Cortez to win (-125). Cortez is ranked higher, but Jasudavicius turned some heads with her win over Miranda Maverick in June. On paper, it's close. Cortez is a little smaller but has technical striking advantages. Simply put, she's more efficient when exchanging significant strikes, mainly due to Jasudavicius tending to absorb much more damage.
Both have been good on the ground. But again, Cortez gets the edge, having landed multiple takedowns in every one of her fights. She has also had more success finding back control against opponents. Notably, Jasaduvicius also landed takedowns in each of her wins, but none in her one loss. That is the true battleground for this matchup.
Parker: Jasudavicius to win (+105). Against Jasudavicius, if Cortez doesn't threaten with her strikes, she will have a lot of trouble wrestling, as her opponent is a good wrestler with great takedown defense. I am surprised that Cortez is the favorite, as Jasudavicius has been more active and dominated Maverick, who is a tougher challenge than an inactive Cortez. Look for Jasudavicius to stop the takedowns early and win the striking battle.
Strawweight: Josefine Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann
Parker: Knutsson to win inside the distance. Josefine Knutsson put on a dominant performance on "Dana White's Contender Series" a few weeks ago. Although she was not given a contract that night, it didn't take long for her to get signed to the UFC and be offered a fight on short notice for Noche UFC. After her original opponent, Jasmin Lucindo, pulled out with an injury, DWCS alum Marnic Mann stepped in. Mann is unfortunately remembered for her brutal head kick KO loss to Bruna Brasil a year ago this week. What was originally going to be a massive step up in competition for Knutsson now will look more like a showcase, as she is light years ahead of Mann in every aspect of the game. Knutsson is a huge favorite, so if you don't want to risk taking her to win inside the distance, then make sure you add her to your parlay.