It's draft season for a large part of the NFL, as playoff hopes and dreams start to disappear on December Sundays. But those fan bases already looking ahead to the 2024 NFL draft class should be excited about a group that features a handful of first-round quarterbacks (including Caleb Williams and Drake Maye), historically good offensive tackle and wide receiver groups, and a number of talented pass-rushers and cornerbacks on the defensive side of the ball. You'll see plenty of these blue-chip prospects in action throughout college football's bowl season before declaring ahead of the January deadline.
As for the draft order, we used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) -- which projects when each team might be picking based on simulations of the rest of the season -- through Week 14's Sunday games. That means the Bears (via the one-win Panthers) pick first. It's one of three selections that has already been traded, along with Houston's pick going to Arizona and Cleveland's pick headed to Houston. I did not project any additional trades just yet, though.
Let's get started. Here are my first-round projections for April's loaded draft.
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1. Chicago Bears (via 1-12 CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The Bears have a tough decision to make at quarterback given how well Justin Fields has played since his return from a right thumb injury a month ago. But he has been inconsistent over three seasons, and Chicago would likely take a quarterback if it lands one of the top two selections in the draft. Williams being available makes it an easier call, too.
Williams is a big play waiting to happen, with 41 total touchdowns in 2023. His game combines great arm strength, mobility, poise and field vision to make him the best overall prospect in the class and a quarterback the Bears simply cannot afford to pass on for another year of Fields. Restarting the clock at the position -- both in terms of salary and development timeline -- now is crucial with Fields' fifth-year option decision on deck.
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2. New England Patriots (3-10)
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Much like Chicago, the Patriots need to start over at quarterback, especially because the entire organization could reset this offseason. Mac Jones' fifth-year option decision is also coming this offseason, and after he was benched for Bailey Zappe, all signs point toward a new QB1 in New England for 2024.
Maye is a powerful thrower at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, with the arm talent to stretch the field vertically and the mobility to threaten on the ground. There are times his ball placement can be inconsistent, but his supporting cast at North Carolina did him few favors there. Maye -- who is declaring for the draft -- has the traits of a true franchise quarterback.
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3. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
I believe the Cardinals will make the right decision here to build around quarterback Kyler Murray and draft an elite receiver prospect to be his running mate, rather than make a change under center. Murray has played well since returning from a torn ACL, and the Cards have receivers Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch both on expiring deals.
Harrison is a magician at 6-foot-4 with fantastic body control and the fastest hands of any receiver in the draft class. He has the smooth and effortless route running ability -- plus the top-tier body control -- to quickly become one of the best players at the position in the NFL. He'd be the 10th receiver to ever get picked this high, per ESPN Stats & Information research.
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4. New York Giants (5-8)
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Is this too early for Daniels, even after his brilliant Heisman-winning 2023 season? Maybe, but teams will overdraft at quarterback in an effort to find the right player, and Daniels' dual-threat ability and vertical passing traits are very intriguing. His 50 total touchdowns this season make him a first-round candidate, but it's Daniels' improvement in the pocket and the best deep ball in college football that will truly turn heads come draft time.
The Giants are invested financially in Daniel Jones, but his play simply hasn't been good enough, and New York can move on via a trade. His 38.4 QBR ranks 25th in the NFL, and his season is over with a torn ACL. Daniels' 95.7, meanwhile, leads the FBS. And sure, undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito has been a fun story, leading the Giants to three straight wins. But his QBR on the season? It's even worse than Jones' at 26.2.
Michael Penix Jr. throws a 40-yard TD dime to Rome Odunze to give Washington the lead.
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5. Washington Commanders (4-9)
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
First-year starting quarterback Sam Howell has likely shown enough bright spots for the Commanders to build around him for at least one more season. But they can't keep this current offensive line intact with Howell on track to set the single-season sacks taken record (58 in 13 games).
Fashanu is a smooth-moving left tackle who has allowed one sack all season at Penn State. The 20-year-old junior is still developing, but he has Laremy Tunsil-like potential.
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6. Tennessee Titans (5-8)
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
An offensive playmaker is very much in play for the Titans here, but this is a team without a double-digit sack player on the current roster. Outside linebackers Harold Landry III (8.5) and Arden Key (5.0) are talented, but the chance to get the best defensive player in the entire draft should excite Tennessee. The Titans have many needs at premium positions, so the best player available approach makes sense, and they can then find a pass-catcher or left tackle on Day 2. Turner has nine sacks this season.
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7. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Could the Raiders roll with Aidan O'Connell in 2024? Sure, but all signs right now point to them starting over at quarterback with a new regime in place, even after signing Jimmy Garoppolo in the 2023 offseason. McCarthy is instinctive, efficient and effective as a second-effort creator outside of the pocket. The Michigan scheme does him no favors in terms of statistics, but NFL scouts continue to tell me that McCarthy will be drafted earlier than expected.
With Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) and Quinn Ewers (Texas) expected to return to college for the 2024 season, McCarthy is the lone first-round-caliber passer remaining on my board. And if things play out this way, this would be the quickest that four QBs have come off the board in the common draft era (since 1967), per ESPN Stats & Information.
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8. Chicago Bears (5-8)
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Bears have receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet, but with Darnell Mooney struggling to develop into a consistent threat and set to hit free agency, they could stand to add more options -- especially if they are taking a rookie quarterback in Williams at No. 1. Nabers is the most explosive after-the-catch receiver in the draft -- he averages 6.8 yards after the catch per reception -- and I like to compare him to Stefon Diggs. You might wonder about a left tackle here, but I'm a believer in second-year player Braxton Jones, so Chicago would be wise to go receiver at No. 8.
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9. New York Jets (5-8)
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Jets appear to be all-in on the return of Aaron Rodgers, fixing what ails them most in 2024. But if that's the case, a major upgrade is needed along the offensive line. New York has allowed 55 sacks, third most in the NFL, and Zach Wilson & Co. have been pressured at the fifth-highest rate (36%).
Alt is a pro-ready starter on the left side with one sack allowed all season. Given the turnstile that has been the Jets' left tackle position, upgrading via the early portion of the first round feels like a must after missing out on the top offensive tackles in the 2023 draft.
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10. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers is my No. 6 overall player, but I couldn't find a value/need fit for him earlier than No. 10. Los Angeles wouldn't complain. The Chargers could luck out and get an awesome middle-of-the-field target who has similarities to George Kittle as a route runner, pass-catcher and after-the-catch playmaker. Bowers has 26 receiving touchdowns in the past three seasons and would immediately give quarterback Justin Herbert a chain-mover.
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11. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Falcons miss out on the top quarterbacks here and instead look to bolster the defense with my CB1. Arnold, a 6-foot-2 redshirt sophomore, has five interceptions in 2023 while showing a physicality rarely seen from young cornerbacks in the run game. He's long and aggressive, and he has the ball skills to be a star opposite A.J. Terrell.
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12. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
A powerful pass-rusher who can set the edge against the run is exactly what Seattle needs in a draft class weak at defensive tackle (another potential hole for the Seahawks). Verse can bounce inside or outside opponent offensive tackles at 260 pounds, and he plays very similar to Trey Hendrickson. Verse -- who transferred from Albany before the 2022 season -- has been on a hot streak and has nine sacks through the end of the regular season, showing he is getting better with more reps and experience.
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13. New Orleans Saints (6-7)
Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
A quarterback of the future would be lovely here -- Derek Carr has 13 touchdown passes to seven interceptions this season -- but the value simply isn't there. Instead, the Saints can get a top-flight running mate for Chris Olave. Coleman is a 6-foot-4 pass-catcher with enough explosive ability that FSU used him as its primary punt returner. The former prep basketball star stands out with the ball in his hands and when attacking defenses on 50-50 balls.
If New Orleans did want to add to the QB room, it could maybe look at Bo Nix (Oregon) or Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) as Day 2 options.
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14. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Diontae Johnson's contract expires at the end of 2024, so there's room for Pittsburgh to add a physical, downfield threat with elite after-the-catch ability to the depth chart. Odunze has been the WR1 at Washington for three seasons, catching 25 touchdowns in that time while proving himself to be one of the most physical wideouts in college football. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Odunze could pair with George Pickens to form a duo that would rival Cincinnati's WR group in the AFC North.
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15. Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Rams might have found a left tackle of the future with Alaric Jackson, but the right side has been an issue this season with Rob Havenstein manning the position. Guyton -- a raw but highly mobile blocker -- is my pick for who will be the position's biggest riser during the pre-draft process. The former defensive lineman is still learning to play offensive tackle, but his agility in space as a run-blocker is fantastic, and his length in pass protection is ideal for a rookie starter.
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16. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Colts could be looking at wide receiver if free agent Michael Pittman Jr. isn't retained, but the front office will likely do all it can to keep him on the roster for young quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Instead, the Colts could look to the defense, where the secondary has been plagued by injuries and poor play. McKinstry entered this season as my top-ranked cornerback and then broke up six passes over 13 games while allowing a 32.1% completion percentage (tied for 16th-best in the country). The 6-foot-1, 195-pounder hasn't recorded an interception this season but has quick feet in coverage and great length to lock down top wideouts.
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17. Denver Broncos (7-6)
Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
Denver has a set of budding stars in Pat Surtain II and Ja'Quan McMillian at corner, but since McMillian plays inside, it still needs an outside cover guy opposite Surtain. Rakestraw is long-armed at 6-foot and 188 pounds, and his technique, quickness and instincts are that of a starting NFL cornerback. Turn on the film from the LSU-Mizzou game back in October, and you'll see Rakestraw get challenged just one time all day by the LSU passing offense.
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18. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
Free agency will be huge in truly determining the Bengals' draft needs; wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are currently set to hit the open market. We're operating here under the belief that at least one will be back in 2024. If it plays out that way, the Bengals can bypass receiver in this spot and grab the best interior defender in the class. Newton is slightly undersized at 6-foot-2 and 295 pounds, but he has a devastating first step and has used it to accumulate 16.5 sacks and 92 pressures over the past three seasons.
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19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Mike Evans is potentially hitting free agency in March, and even if the perennial 1,000-yard receiver returns, he will turn 31 years old in August. It's time for Tampa Bay to invest in a younger top-tier pass-catcher, at least as long as one of the top four quarterbacks doesn't slip to No. 19. Worthy is fast and elusive with big-play ability. He has scored 25 touchdowns for Texas during the past three seasons and is a blur with the ball in his hands.
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20. Arizona Cardinals (via 7-6 HOU)
Kalen King, CB, Penn State
After adding Harrison at No. 3 to help boost the offense, I could see the Cardinals focusing on cornerback with their second first-rounder further down the board. King was rated higher by NFL scouts than former Penn State teammate Joey Porter Jr. (No. 33 in the 2023 draft), and while he isn't as physical as Porter, he has better timing and ball skills. The Cardinals' pass defense -- which is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt, 26th in the NFL -- would improve with the feisty 5-foot-11, 191-pounder lined up outside. King has three interceptions and 19 pass breakups over his career.
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21. Green Bay Packers (6-7)
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Since the Packers have a solid young offensive nucleus at quarterback, wide receiver and tight end, they can focus on the line in the draft. The Packers haven't added a non-QB player on offense in Round 1 since 2011 (Derek Sherrod), but they could use some protection for Jordan Love. Latham is a massive blocker on the right side at 6-foot-6 and 360 pounds, and he moves exceptionally well up to the second level and in space. He's powerful enough to handle NFL rushers, too, and has allowed just two sacks in his three years at Alabama.
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22. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Vikings are desperate for a franchise quarterback but probably won't be picking high enough to get a top passer in this class. Maybe they bring back Kirk Cousins? Maybe they sign someone else or address it further down the board? Either way, I like them adding a top-flight cornerback here at No. 22 if QB isn't an option. People at Clemson say Wiggins is the fastest player on the Tigers' roster, and he does it at 6-foot-2. He played his best football down the stretch of the 2023 regular season before declaring for the draft and has true CB1 traits.
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23. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Bills need to add an explosive playmaker, whether it be on offense or defense. And in this projection, the draft's most productive pass-rusher is waiting for them at No. 23. Latu, who medically retired from football while at Washington and then transferred to UCLA in 2022, has posted 23.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Medicals will obviously be huge for his evaluation, but based on tape alone, Latu has top-10-pick upside. His game is similar to that of Jaelan Phillips, thanks to his size (6-foot-5, 265 pounds), length and first-step speed.
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24. Houston Texans (via 8-5 CLE)
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Will Anderson Jr., the Texans' No. 3 selection back in April, has been amazing as a rookie, but the Texans need a consistent playmaker opposite him. The 255-pound Robinson doesn't have the biggest build, but he is super explosive off the snap and used that quickness to grab 11.5 sacks over the past three seasons at Penn State before declaring for the draft. He isn't a run-down defender yet, but his ability to get to the quarterback will help Houston's defense immediately. The Texans rank 23rd in sack percentage, recording one on 6.1% of opponent dropbacks.
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25. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
The Jaguars have speed (Christian Kirk) and precision (Calvin Ridley) at wideout but lack power. That's what Legette brings at 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds. The senior caught 73 passes for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns while outmuscling defensive backs on breaking routes and with the ball in his hands. The Jaguars appear set on the offensive line and could maybe add a pass-rusher, but Legette is too good of a value to pass up here.
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26. Detroit Lions (9-4)
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
The Lions drafted a running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) and linebacker (Jack Campbell) in Round 1 back in April, but let's get them back to adding premium positions with early picks with a talented wide receiver. Thomas can play opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown as a 6-foot-4 red-zone target. He has 60 catches -- with 15 scores -- while averaging 18 yards per reception this season, and he'd be a physical mismatch for Jared Goff and the offense.
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27. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Another receiver? This makes it eight in Round 1, which would break the standing record of seven set in 2004. But this WR class is dominant, and the Chiefs obviously need one.
The Chiefs lead the NFL in dropped passes (29), and go-to tight end Travis Kelce is in his age-34 season. It's time to upgrade the pass-catchers on the roster for Patrick Mahomes. Mitchell is a playmaker who moves the chains at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds. He also has 10 touchdowns on 51 catches (just one drop) this season and consistently comes up big in crucial moments for the Longhorns.
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28. Dallas Cowboys (10-3)
JT Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio State
There isn't a clear-cut need in Dallas right now. Maybe a WR2 makes sense, or maybe some more depth at cornerback, though this team looks pretty complete at the moment. But the potential to add another pass-rusher fits with how the Cowboys like to build their roster. Tuimoloau wasn't overly productive at Ohio State -- 10 sacks over three years -- but he plays his best in big games, including four career sacks against Penn State last season. He's a heavy-handed defensive end who also shows up against the run.
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29. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)
Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
A Georgia defender to the Eagles? We've seen it before! And it seems to work well for Philly.
Lassiter isn't the front-seven playmaker that GM Howie Roseman loves to draft in Round 1, but the secondary could use major upgrades considering that Darius Slay and James Bradberry will both be at least 31 years old come Week 1 of next season. The Eagles took Kelee Ringo in Round 4 last April and signed Eli Ricks and Josh Jobe as undrafted free agents over the past two years, but it's time to invest in a premium prospect at the position. Lassiter has seven pass breakups this season and has allowed just nine receptions.
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30. Miami Dolphins (9-4)
Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Do the Dolphins need a left tackle? Not yet -- but Terron Armstead turns 33 next July, and there is a potential out in his contract following the 2024 season. For a roster with very few immediate needs, Miami can draft ahead, prepping Suamataia to be the future at left tackle. The BYU senior is the most active, physical left tackle I've studied this year, but he's also really good in space in the run game and moves smoothly in pass protection. He'd be a great fit for the Dolphins' scheme.
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31. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
Chris Braswell, EDGE, Alabama
The Ravens are getting career-year production from Jadeveon Clowney at one edge position, but he's playing on a one-year deal. Flipping the talent on the edge of the defense is always a focal point for this front office, and Braswell is tailor-made for the Ravens' scheme at 6-foot-3 and 255 pounds. He has great power when setting the edge in the run game, and he has added eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss so far this season.
Braswell would be the 13th prospect taken on the defensive side of the ball in this scenario -- we've only seen that few Day 1 defensive players 21 times in the common draft era, per ESPN Stats & Information.
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32. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The right side of the 49ers' offensive line has been a weakness this season in both run and passing situations, while right tackle Colton McKivitz has allowed nine sacks and has the team's worst pass block win rate (88%). Normally, San Francisco might not find a solid OT picking at No. 32, but this class is deep. In fact, this would be the fifth time in common draft era history that at least six offensive tackles were taken in Round 1, per ESPN Stats & Information.
Fuaga is a powerful but agile run-blocker at 330 pounds, and since he already operates in a wide zone-running scheme at Oregon State, he would be a plug-and-play transition into the 49ers' offense. Cornerback is definitely a potential consideration here, too, but Fuaga is too nice of a scheme fit and too big of a positional need to go any other direction.