The NFL's wild 2022 offseason has delivered a new vibe to free agency. Teams that want to add veteran difference-makers are no longer limited to those on expiring contracts. Blockbuster trades have dominated this spring, allowing elite players who otherwise would not have been available -- Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill among them -- to change teams.
As a result, signing a player to a contract extension is not necessarily a move for continuity. Ultimately, that contract can be leverage to receive a much larger return than the compensatory pick a team receives when a player departs via free agency.
All of which is to say that the 2023 free-agent class is not expected to look anything like the rankings that follow. Last year's version of this list featured only four players who eventually made it to the market. Likewise, most of the top 2023 pending free agents are likely to sign extensions or be franchise-tagged. They wouldn't be available on the market in that scenario, but who knows about a trade?
As always, we've weighted the rankings toward players in the "sweet spot" of free agency: exiting their first contract at the age of about 26. Quarterbacks and pass-rushers are more valuable than running backs and off-ball linebackers. We've also included a list of 2022 franchise players who, if they do not sign extensions before July 15, would be eligible once again for free agency in 2023. Players who are eligible for a fifth-year option in 2023, such as Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, are not included. Let's get to it.
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1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Age entering 2023 season: 26
It's frankly amazing that Jackson is this close to free agency, or at least a franchise tag. He won the NFL MVP award in 2019 and has been eligible for an extension for more than a year. Recent comments from Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta suggest that Jackson is in no rush, a sensible approach given the way high-end quarterback salaries are trending.
2. Quenton Nelson, G, Indianapolis Colts
Age entering 2023 season: 27
Nelson is one of the top five guards in the NFL, an All-Pro in each of his first three seasons before missing four games last year because of an ankle injury. He is a mauler and a tone-setter, and he would seem to be the type of player the Colts want around for the duration of his career. Stranger things have happened, of course.
3. Derwin James Jr., S, Los Angeles Chargers
Age entering 2023 season: 27
James rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons to play 15 games in 2021, retaking his place as one of the NFL's top all-around safeties. He is a devastating tackler and enforcer, but he also has the ball skills to play coverage and create game-changing turnovers. He did miss 27 of 32 games in 2019 and 2020, but hopefully he has put that period of his career behind him.
4. Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland Browns
Age entering 2023 season: 26
Ward has earned two Pro Bowl selections (in his rookie season and in 2021) and has generally lived up to expectations after the Browns made him the No. 4 overall pick of the 2018 draft. Most teams don't have a cornerback it can count on to match up against an opponent's top receiver. Ward has been that guy for the Browns.
5. Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Age entering 2023 season: 27
Samuel has developed into one of the NFL's most versatile, unique and ultimately unstoppable offensive weapons. There was so much excitement last season about the 49ers' use of him as a running back -- he carried 59 times for 365 yards and eight touchdowns -- that some overlooked the fact that he recorded his first 1,000-yard season as a receiver and led the league with an average of 18.2 yards per catch.
6. A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
Age entering 2023 season: 26
Brown opened his career with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and was on track for a third before a chest injury cost him four games in 2021. But as a second-round pick in 2019, he gets to bite the apple without the obstruction of a fifth-year option. You won't find many receivers who can match his combination of size and ball skills.
7. Elgton Jenkins, G/OT/C, Green Bay Packers
Age entering 2023 season: 27
Jenkins' trio of positions listed above is no typo. In three seasons with the Packers, he has gotten significant playing time at both tackle positions, as well as guard and even center. And he has been great at all of them. He turned in an amazing eight-game performance at left tackle in 2021 before a torn ACL ended his season. The Packers could plug him in anywhere in 2022 and feel confident they would get Pro Bowl-level play.
8. Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
Age entering 2023 season: 32
Carr hasn't always had a smooth run with the Raiders, but it's hard to imagine them moving on from him anytime soon -- especially after the trade for receiver Davante Adams (a former college teammate) earlier this month. But as of this moment, his contract is set to expire after the 2022 season. In fact, after taking the Raiders to the playoffs in 2021, Carr already is underpaid at $19.8 million for 2022. But if he were to reach the open market, there would be plenty of interest.
9. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Age entering 2023 season: 27
Toiling with subpar quarterback play throughout his time in Washington, McLaurin has nevertheless demonstrated elite-level ball skills and toughness. He has excellent hands, having dropped only four passes on 351 career targets, and would seem to be a reliable 1,000-yard receiver -- for almost any team, with almost any quarterback -- for years to come.
10. Jack Conklin, OT, Cleveland Browns
Age entering 2023 season: 29
Conklin suffered through a tough season of injuries in 2021, most notably a torn patellar tendon. He has since restructured his contract and is now eligible for free agency after the 2022 season. For now, we'll assume that he makes a full recovery and plays a full season for the Browns. If that's the case, he could be the top tackle available.
11. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age entering 2023 season: 26
Fitzpatrick has already been traded once -- after his rookie season with the Dolphins -- but from the start has been one of the NFL's top playmakers in the back end. He has scored four defensive touchdowns in his career, tied for the most in the NFL over that span, and his 13 interceptions rank tied for No. 8.
12. DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Age entering 2023 season: 25
Metcalf emerged immediately as the most productive receiver of the 2019 draft, from the perspective of receiving yards (3,170) and touchdowns (29), among a group that also includes Terry McLaurin, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown and Diontae Johnson, among others. At the moment, at least, Metcalf is the NFL's best combination of speed, size and physicality at the position.
13. Roquan Smith, ILB, Chicago Bears
Age entering 2023 season: 26
Smith has been a durable and active defensive player over his career in Chicago, and he is valuable despite having never been named to a Pro Bowl or All-Pro team. His 523 tackles rank No. 3 in the NFL since the start of his career in 2018, behind only Bobby Wagner and Darius Leonard, and he has the kind of speed coverage that teams covet to minimize mismatches.
14. Marcus Davenport, DE, New Orleans Saints
Age entering 2023 season: 27
Davenport has been something of an enigma since the Saints made him the No. 14 overall pick of the 2018 draft. He has missed at least three games in every season, and a total of 11 in the past two, and he managed 13 sacks in his first three seasons combined. But he raised his sack total to nine last season, and it's always worth the extra effort to consider an inconsistent pass-rusher coming off his first contract.
15. Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age entering 2023 season: 46
Yes, Brady's age is similar to that of the fathers of some teammates. And after retiring briefly this offseason, it's clear the end of his career is on his mind, and there is no projecting whether he would want to play in 2023. But for the moment, he fits the description of a player qualified to be on this list. He's a high-end quarterback with a contract that automatically voids after this season. Let the speculation begin.
16. Bradley Chubb, OLB, Denver Broncos
Age entering 2023 season: 27
After recording 12.5 sacks as a rookie in 2018, Chubb has struggled to stay on the field and be productive. He missed 12 games in 2019 and 10 in 2021 because of injuries. Dealing with a foot injury throughout last season, he did not have a single sack. But because he is an edge rusher with a first-round traits, Chubb would draw significant attention on the market -- especially if he breaks out in 2022 while playing across from new Broncos acquisition Randy Gregory.
17. Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills
Age entering 2023 season: 26
Knox had a career year in 2021, catching 49 passes for 587 yards and nine touchdowns while developing an obvious connection with quarterback Josh Allen. There is a strong class of 2022 franchise-tag tight ends who could flood the market next year, but for now, Knox is a very intriguing candidate at an increasingly important position in the passing game.
18. Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Age entering 2023 season: 27
We can argue about the value of a slot receiver on the open market. Everyone thinks they can find someone to run those routes, and there is a wide variety of thought about what type of player to put in that position. But for those who want a profile in the mold of Wes Welker, Julian Edelman or Randall Cobb, Renfrow appears to be next up. He caught 103 passes last season and is every bit as quick and tough as those who have paved the way at this spot.
19. Byron Murphy Jr., CB, Arizona Cardinals
Age entering 2023 season: 25
Murphy made a jump last season for the Cardinals, intercepting four passes and defending 12 others -- both career highs. He hasn't received any postseason recognition, and most free-agent cornerbacks struggled to get traction on this year's free-agent market. But if Murphy takes another reasonable jump in 2022, he'll be hotly pursued as a 25-year-old starter.
20. Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age entering 2023 season: 27
If nothing else, Johnson has proved to be a consistent target for a middling offense. He has improved with each season in Pittsburgh, and his 254 career catches are the most by any receiver in the 2019 draft class. It helps that he has been targeted 407 times over that period, largely on short passes that have led to an average of 10.9 yards per catch. His drop percentage of 5.4% is worrisome, but he has a chance to vault into a higher tier in 2022.
What about ...
Jordan Poyer, S, Buffalo Bills: Poyer was an All-Pro last season on one of the NFL's best teams, but by the time the 2023 season rolls around, he'll be 33 years old.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants: It seems weird and maybe disrespectful to omit Barkley from the above list, but at the moment, he is a feature back who has missed 21 games over the past three seasons. His career to this point is going in the wrong direction.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns: The No. 1 overall pick of the 2018 draft, Mayfield might be destined to be a backup in 2022. That doesn't mean he'll be unwanted on the 2023 market -- Mitch Trubisky signed with the Steelers after a season as the Bills' backup -- but Mayfield has a long way to go on that path.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers: The assumption is that the 49ers will move on from Garoppolo in favor of Trey Lance, but it's unclear whether Garoppolo's next stop will be as a starter. As with Mayfield, there is a lot left to happen between now and the start of the 2023 market.
Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Buffalo Bills: Inside linebackers don't get much attention on the open market, but Edmunds has been a steady and reliable starter for all four of his seasons in Buffalo.
Jaire Alexander, CB, Green Bay Packers: A year ago, Alexander would have projected to be near the top of this list. But after he missed 13 games because of injury in 2021, he has some catching up to do in 2022.
Franchise-tagged players
These players are currently signed under the franchise tag for 2022, which will expire after the season unless they sign extensions by July 15.