Micah Parsons hasn't finished any of three seasons as the NFL sack leader, but the Cowboys' superstar pass rusher seems primed to rise to that next level.
That's according to our projected sack model, which forecasts season sack totals for veteran pass rushers. The statistical model -- now in its fourth year -- is based on each player's past performance and their situation entering the 2024 NFL season. It's the same model we used in 2023 (with minor updates) and includes the following inputs:
Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Past sack rates of opposing quarterbacks on a player's 2024 schedule
Projected team win totals (because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more)
How often a player rushes from the edge as opposed to the interior
To be included, players must be defensive linemen or linebackers. They also must have rushed the passer at least 150 times in one of the past two seasons, rushed the passer on at least 25% of their snaps last season and be projected to play at least 250 snaps this season. Rookies were excluded. The model forecasts the mean outcome for a player's season. And while the numbers might strike you as low, consider that this is projecting the average of all outcomes for the player -- including injuries.
Is 2024 the year for Parsons to rise to the top? Let's dive into the top 10, but jump down for the full list and the top pass-rush duos in the league.
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Top 10 | More to watch | Top duos
1. Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
Projected 2024 sacks: 13.6
ESPN BET over/under: 13.5
2023 sack total: 14.0
This is Parsons' first time leading this projection list and comes despite him never topping 14 sacks in a season. But when peeking at Parsons' underlying numbers, it's clear that an explosion into the high teens or even record-breaking territory is feasible.
Parsons has led the NFL in pass rush win rate -- meaning he beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds at a higher rate than anyone else -- in all three seasons of his career. The gap was huge last season, too, as Parsons' 35% PRWR was well ahead of second-place Myles Garrett's 30%. Plus, the Cowboys have one of the most favorable schedules of opposing quarterbacks, including matchups with high-sack-rate quarterbacks such as Bryce Young, Russell Wilson/Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones (twice).
2. Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Projected 2024 sacks: 13.6
ESPN BET over/under: 13.5
2023 sack total: 14.0
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year could have easily been No. 1, and the difference here between him and Parsons is tiny. Like Parsons, Garrett is a PRWR stalwart, but he brings a bit more sack production, too (30 over the past two seasons). But Cleveland's slightly lower win total in comparison to Dallas, Parsons' slightly superior PRWRs and Garrett's age (28) pushed the Cowboys' pass rusher ahead of Garrett. Both players are nearly perfect in terms of what the forecast seeks -- and there's a big drop after them.
3. Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Projected 2024 sacks: 11.4
ESPN BET over/under: 11.5
2023 sack total: 10.5
Bosa is a contrast to the two players at the top of this list, as has never flourished in pass rush win rate the way Parsons and Garrett have -- his 18% figure ranked 26th among players at all positions last season. But Bosa compiled 18.5 sacks in 2022 and is playing on one of the best teams in football, which works in his favor. However, San Francisco has the least favorable opposing QB schedule in the league when it comes to times sacked, which hinders Bosa's forecast.
4. Alex Highsmith, Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected 2024 sacks: 11.2
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2023 sack total: 7.0
We're projecting a big jump for Highsmith (and I'll get into the comparison between him and T.J. Watt shortly) after a down 2023 season. That might seem odd, but the model finds plenty of signal in Highsmith's 2022 performance, when he broke out with 14.5 sacks. And while he fell to 7.0 sacks last season, his 21% pass rush win rate at edge ranked 12th at the position. I'm not surprised the model likes him, but I am surprised it likes him this much.
5. Haason Reddick, New York Jets
Projected 2024 sacks: 11.0
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2023 sack total: 11.0
If Reddick suits up for the Jets this year -- which is in question -- he has a great chance to put up big numbers. In 2023, Bryce Huff became the first Jets edge rusher in a decade to reach double-digit sacks, but he left for the Eagles in free agency, opening the door for Reddick's trade from Philadelphia. This model has always loved Reddick, and it's not going to stop now.
His numbers dipped last season, but he still had 11 sacks and a top-10 pass rush win rate (22%). And the model still factors in Reddick's epic 2022 campaign (16 sacks, 28% PRWR) as well ... but it doesn't factor in holdout risk.
6. Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders
Projected 2024 sacks: 10.6
ESPN BET over/under: 13.0
2023 sack total: 14.5
Crosby has at least one thing going for him relative to his peers: He plays more than anyone else. Crosby was on the field an astonishing 95% of the Raiders' defensive snaps a season ago. Those extra snaps (even Garrett and Parsons played only 81%) provide extra opportunities, and a few of them will result in sacks. Crosby's forecast is held back by the Raiders' preseason projected win total (6.5) and his lack of elite win rate metrics the past two seasons.
Though not in the model, the fact that Crosby had seven sacks after five seconds last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, gives me pause. It was the second most by a double-digit sack player in 2023 (Danielle Hunter, 9.5).
7. T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected 2024 sacks: 10.3
ESPN BET over/under: 14.5
2023 sack total: 19.0
In four years of doing this, I'm not sure I've ever been as surprised by a player's forecast as I am with Watt's in 2024. The upside is obvious; in two of the past three seasons, Watt has accumulated at least 19 sacks (he tied the single-season record of 22.5 in 2021). He has also hit 13 or more in five of the past six seasons.
So why is he at just 10.3 this season, below teammate Alex Highsmith? The model seems skittish of Watt's 2022 campaign, when he suffered a variety of injuries and recorded 5.5 sacks -- roughly a half-sack per game. Age is also a factor, as Watt turns 30 in October. Still, my opinion would override the model: He probably won't hit, say, 15 sacks, but he should end up with more than Highsmith.
8. Josh Sweat, Philadelphia Eagles
Projected 2024 sacks: 10.2
ESPN BET over/under: 7.5
2023 sack total: 6.5
We're bullish on Sweat, whose production fell off a cliff the second half of last season. Sweat had 6.5 sacks through Week 9 but was shut out after that as part of an Eagles pass rush that crumbled down the stretch. But there are signs that point to a bounce-back.
Sweat had 11 sacks in 2022 and a 20% pass rush win rate over the past two seasons. He also rushed the passer on 63% of his snaps last season (higher than average), and the Eagles face a favorable slate of opposing quarterbacks.
9. Brian Burns, New York Giants
Projected 2024 sacks: 10.2
ESPN BET over/under: 8.5
2023 sack total: 8.0
The model is projecting Burns' first season with the Giants to result in a sack increase after he was dealt from Carolina this past offseason. Burns has been a steady performer at a level just below the elite pass rushers, maxing out at 12.5 sacks in 2022. He managed only eight last season, though playing on a bad Panthers team that was rarely ahead contributed to the lower total. The Giants aren't much better, but Burns' history of consistently strong win rates and his 2022 production buoys his forecast.
10. Matthew Judon, Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2024 sacks: 10.2
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2023 sack total: 4.0
I was pretty critical of the Falcons' acquisition of Judon last week, but I ran my model shortly thereafter, and it turned out to be awfully high on Atlanta's new pass rusher. I was worried about Judon's age (32) and lackluster win rates, and while the model shares those concerns, it also sees a player who was a consistently productive sack artist in New England (32 in 33 games, though some of that is out of the model's purview).
By far the best pass rusher in Atlanta, he should play a lot and will also face a friendly slate of opposing quarterbacks this season.
Other notable projections
13. Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2024 sacks: 9.6
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2023 sack total: 17.5
We're probably light on Hines-Allen relative to consensus, which is no surprise given the model's tenet that the past two seasons are quite predictive of the upcoming season. While Hines-Allen broke out in 2023, the model doesn't believe growth is linear. And Hines-Allen's underlying pass rush win rate stayed exactly the same (16.2%, roughly the league average for an edge rusher) from 2022 to 2023, despite his sack total ballooning from seven to 17.5.
25. Quinnen Williams, New York Jets
Projected 2024 sacks: 7.6
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2023 sack total: 5.5
One significant factor we haven't discussed yet is position. It's much harder for a defensive tackle to put up big-time sack totals, so playing along the interior of the defensive line hampers a player's forecast. Williams is second to the Chiefs' Chris Jones (10.0) among defensive tackles on this list -- and Jones played edge roughly a quarter of the time. But Williams is in the prime of his career, is on a good team and has shown double-digit sack ability in the past.
35. Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans
Projected 2024 sacks: 7.2
ESPN BET over/under: 8.0
2023 sack total: 7.0
One player I'd pick to beat his projected sack total is Anderson. The model doesn't include draft capital in its inputs, and Anderson highlights a bit of a weakness in the model: How should we view a highly touted prospect who has only one season of experience but played well in that campaign? He has two big things going for him -- he finished third in pass rush win rate at edge (26%) behind Parsons and Garrett and is on a team that should be ahead in plenty of games. With only one year of information about Anderson, the model assumes some regression. But that might not be fair to Anderson.
Top sack duos
We wanted to look at the teams with the highest projected sack totals among their top two pass rushers. The list is of course led by the Steelers, who have two players in the top seven. We will also highlight a few other interesting pairings here.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Top two pass rushers: Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff
Combined projection: 17.8
It takes a fair amount of projection to put the Eagles this high, considering Sweat had only 6.5 sacks last season and Huff hadn't had more 3.5 sacks in a season before reaching 10 last year with the Jets. But both players have consistently had strong pass rush win rates before their respective sack breakouts. They both also have exceptional burst off the snap. Sweat and Huff averaged pass rush get-offs (time to cross the line of scrimmage) of 0.73 and 0.75 of a second last season, which ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, among all players (per NFL Next Gen Stats).
8. Kansas City Chiefs
Top two pass rushers: Chris Jones and George Karlaftis
Combined projection: 17.6
Jones is an absolute force, managing a high projection (10.0) despite mostly rushing from the interior. He'd surely crack the individual top-10 list if he were younger than 30 years old. We're a little lower on Karlaftis than the betting market (7.6 projected sacks compared with an 8.5 betting line at ESPN Bet), but I'm good with that. Even though Karlaftis had 10.5 sacks last season (tied for 17th in the league), 6.5 of them came 4.65 seconds or more after the snap. If we consider only sacks at 4.65 seconds or quicker, he had four -- which tied for 57th in the NFL.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Top two pass rushers: Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard
Combined projection: 17.3
The Bengals face an advantageous set of quarterbacks this season (having Deshaun Watson and the Steelers' QBs twice helps), which works in the favor of Hendrickson (10.0) and Hubbard (7.3). The former is a player who could easily be in the top 10. I've long believed Hendrickson is underrated and a perennial medium-shot candidate to lead the league in sacks. Our projection is lighter on him than the betting markets, though.
Hubbard is a consistent player who has recorded 6.0-7.5 sacks in each of the past three seasons. He is below average in pass rush win rate, but his above-average run defense keeps his snap count high, which gives him more sack opportunities than most.