Beginning a season with back-to-back losses leaves an NFL team in dire straits. Since the league moved to its 32-team format in 2002, about one in every 10 teams to start 0-2 has made it to the postseason. Last season, of the nine teams that started the season with two consecutive defeats, the Texans were the only team to advance to the playoffs.
If a team falls to 0-3, though, it had might as well start making vacation plans for January. Again going back to 2002, 103 squads have started the season with three straight defeats. The 2018 Texans are the only one that managed to turn things around and make it to the postseason. The 2013 Steelers could be added to the list by pretending the league had a 14-team playoff over that time. That's two in 103. The chances are just below 2%.
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So now, just two weeks into the season, nine teams face what amounts to must-win games next weekend. Let's run through those teams and their chances of being the one in 10 that turns things around. I'll start with the franchises that have the best chance of righting the ship and end with those furthest away from contention. At this time last season, I was the most skeptical of the Texans, and they proved me wrong by going 10-5 the rest of the way. Can any team match them in 2024?
No. 1 on this list is the team I'm still most optimistic about. And as a surprise, it's not the team that won 13 games a year ago. Instead, it's a rival of that team that should be able to ride a friendly schedule over the next couple of weeks back to the .500 mark:
Jump to an 0-2 team:
Broncos | Bengals | Colts
Giants | Jaguars | Panthers
Rams | Ravens | Titans
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 43.2%
I wrote last week about a frustrating Bengals loss at the hands of the Patriots. They played much better against the Chiefs on Sunday and probably deserved to win, but they experienced a rerun of one of their least favorite moments at exactly the wrong time. After a late penalty set up the Chiefs in field goal range and knocked the Bengals out in the 2022 AFC Championship Game, a pass interference call on fourth-and-16 Sunday extended the game for Kansas City and yielded a Harrison Butker game winner to push Cincinnati to 0-2.
For the second straight week, a fumble also victimized Cincinnati's chances. In Week 1, Tanner Hudson's fumble inside the 5-yard line cost it a touchdown. This week, it was a strip sack of Joe Burrow that was recovered by the Chiefs and returned for a score. The Bengals have fumbled six times through three games, a remarkable total for a team that fumbled only 10 times last season.
There were positives Sunday. The clear game plan from the Chiefs, facing a Bengals team without injured Tee Higgins for the second consecutive week, was to lock up Ja'Marr Chase and force Burrow to find his other receivers. Chase had only four catches on five targets for 35 yards, but everybody else ate. Mike Gesicki led the way with seven catches for 91 yards. Andrei Iosivas had two catches for 7 yards, but both went for scores, including a fourth-and-short catch. Jermaine Burton had a key catch for 47 yards to help set up that Iosivas score. Nobody captured any videos of Burrow to help foster conspiracy theories about his wrist. Usually that's enough to win. Before Sunday, when he has posted a QBR of 50 or better on throws to his receivers who aren't Chase or Higgins, he had gone 17-0. He posted a 66.0 mark in the loss. That's a positive sign, even if it didn't lead to a victory.
The star of the defense undoubtedly has been Trey Hendrickson, whose pass-rushing prowess has resulted in back-to-back benchings for opponents. In Week 1, he got Chuks Okorafor sent to the bench, with the Patriots tackle then leaving the team and seemingly football before Week 2. On Sunday, Hendrickson got the better of rookie tackle Kingsley Suamataia, racking up two sacks, three knockdowns and a pair of holding calls. Kansas City coach Andy Reid benched the rookie second-rounder for Wanya Morris, who proceeded to wipe away a 21-yard completion to Rashee Rice on fourth down with an illegal use of hands penalty versus Hendrickson.
The problem is Hendrickson is the whole show. He has 12 pressures through two games, which is more than the rest of the team combined (nine). The only other player with a sack is cornerback Dax Hill. Cincinnati ranks 31st in the league in QBR allowed when it gets pressure through two weeks. Even with the Hendrickson wrecking shop, that hasn't quite been enough on defense.
Take the fourth-and-16 that extended the game. Calling back to his fateful tactical switch from the 2022 AFC Championship Game, coordinator Lou Anarumo chose to drop eight into coverage. With Hendrickson having beaten a double-team on the prior play to force a penalty, maybe Anarumo thought Hendrickson could win on his own again.
Unlike the coverages that had defenders at multiple levels and spied Patrick Mahomes, Anarumo played a gadget defense that had eight defenders waiting at the sticks. And when Mahomes began to scramble, Geno Stone went to head for the quarterback, leaving room for Rice to break in behind him. Playing just his sixth defensive snap of the game, safety Daijahn Anthony was flagged for interfering with Rice, handing the Chiefs a path to victory.
I'm optimistic about the Bengals because of what comes next: Four of their next five games are against the Commanders, Panthers, Giants and Browns, albeit with three of those four coming on the road. Their next home game is against the Ravens in a matchup that might decide which of these two teams is in position to turn things around in the AFC North.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 40.2%
I don't know if alarm bells were going off in Baltimore after the Ravens lost to the Chiefs in Week 1. Losing to the Raiders at home, though, should have everyone's attention. One year after going 13-4 and wowing advanced metrics with their regular-season performance, the Ravens are 0-2. It's the first time since 2020 that a Lamar Jackson-led team has lost two straight, let alone two straight to begin the season.
Some of their problems could be expected and are straight out of their entry in the likely-to-decline column from before the season. After posting a league-best plus-12 turnover differential last season, they have been even through two games, with one giveaway and one takeaway in each of contest. Their red zone dominance has faded; an offense that converted nearly 62% of its red zone trips into touchdowns is 3-for-7, while a defense that allowed touchdowns 40.8% of the time last season is 3-for-6.
The offensive line is a work in progress. Chris Jones gave them fits in the opener. On Sunday, Jackson was sacked twice on 36 dropbacks, but the running game didn't get going until after halftime. The Ravens had 11 rushing yards on 10 designed rush attempts during the first half, only to then turn 14 carries into 93 runs after the break. After Jackson had 16 carries for 122 yards in the opener against the Chiefs, Baltimore was conscious of his health, and he ran only five times for 45 yards Sunday. Just two of those runs were designed carries.
What has been more surprising is just how bad the Ravens have been in coverage. Last season, they allowed 46 completions of 20 yards or more, or about 2.3 per game. In a season in which they were battling injuries at cornerback from August on, that's a solid performance. Mike Macdonald's unit ranked ninth in the league in 20-plus yards played allowed in the passing game.
With Macdonald, Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, Geno Stone and others leaving this offseason, the Ravens have been porous. They've already allowed a league-high 10 completions for gains of 20 yards or more. And while you might chalk that up to playing against the Chiefs in Week 1, Gardner Minshew & Co. racked up five 20-plus yard completions in Week 2, just as many as the Chiefs did in the opener. That doesn't include a 24-yard pass interference penalty on Marlon Humphrey.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp exits the game right before halftime after an apparent leg injury.
Three of those completions went to Davante Adams against Brandon Stephens, a mismatch the Raiders exploited repeatedly during their comeback victory. Brock Bowers had the other two and had a big game over the middle of the field, attacking linebacker Trenton Simpson, who was Queen's replacement in the starting lineup. Play-action has torched the Ravens: Opposing quarterbacks are 15-of-15 for 112 yards and a touchdown using play fakes. Yes, that's not a typo -- that's a 100% completion rate.
One way to combat all those big plays is to fight fire with fire. That hasn't quite worked. The Ravens have struggled for explosive plays on the offensive side of the ball. Jackson is 1-of-9 for 38 yards on attempts traveling 20 air yards or more downfield this season. They have produced five plays of 20 yards or more, but those have mostly been after the catch, and one of them was the unsuccessful "Pitchy Pitchy Woo Woo" laterals play that ended the game against the Chiefs. The Ravens had 17 more 20-plus-yard gains on offense than they did on defense a year ago, a plus-17 explosive play differential. Through two games, they're at minus-five.
Even worse, their special teams appear to be falling apart. Justin Tucker missed a 56-yard field goal Sunday, leading to the world discovering his leg appears to be weakening. He has gone 1-of-7 on kicks of 50 yards or more since the start of 2023, including four misses in a row.
I have to poke a couple of holes in those concerns. Tucker's leg has led the Ravens to try deeper kicks than the ones most other kickers would attempt over that stretch. In addition to the 56-yard miss, he had a 55-yarder blocked and missed from 59 and 61 yards last season. He hit a 50-yarder and also booted through a 53-yarder in the divisional round against the Texans last season. I'd argue other kickers getting better from 50-plus has limited his advantage on the field, but I wouldn't be too worried about him.
The more damaging play for the Ravens might have instead been on the punting unit, where Jordan Stout shanked one at a critical moment. With the score tied and the Baltimore offense running off the field after a three-and-out and 2:27 to go, Stout managed a 24-yard punt out of bounds from his own 25-yard line, meaning the Raiders took over in Ravens territory. It also was penalized for having a player go out of bounds, turning the punt into a 19-yarder. Las Vegas needed one first down to get in field goal range and had no trouble getting there, setting up Daniel Carlson's game winner.
There's work to be done here. The defense has to take away the big plays. I'd like to see more consistent play from the offense. Jackson seemed to find more rhythm in the second half once the ground game got going. As the Ravens travel to face a Cowboys team that just got mauled by the Saints' running game, focusing on the run seems like a natural place to start for offensive coordinator Todd Monken as they build this week's game plan. Baltimore actually lost three straight in the middle of the 2020 season and made it to the postseason, but it needed to win out over its five subsequent games to get there. We're not quite in win-out world if they lose to Dallas next week, but that wouldn't be far off.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 23.1%
Two things relevant to the 2024 Jaguars reared their heads in 1999. One was Trevor Lawrence, who was born that year. The other is the alt-rock staple "My Own Worst Enemy" by Lit, which accurately summates Jacksonville's 0-2 start. With the Chargers looking competent under Jim Harbaugh, the team that vanquished Justin Herbert in his only postseason appearance has inherited the mantle of being the most frustrating team to watch in football.
That starts on offense in the most valuable real estate on the field. Red zone issues were a problem for the Jags last season, when they ranked 28th in expected points added (EPA) inside the 20. It hasn't been much better this season. Despite ranking 11th in EPA per play outside the red zone, Lawrence & Co. rank 29th once they get inside the 20. It has been the biggest factor keeping them from winning a game.
Everyone saw what happened in Week 1, when Travis Etienne fumbled inside the 5-yard line and the Dolphins recovered. One play later, a Tyreek Hill touchdown turned the game around in a game Miami won 20-17. Week 2 was more subtle. The Jaguars made four trips into the red zone against the Browns and scored one lone touchdown. They kicked two field goals in goal-to-go situations, one of which came as a result of an illegal shift that wiped away a touchdown. They failed to score at all on a fourth possession, impressive given they had a second-and-5 from the Cleveland 14-yard line.
The sequence of plays from that second-and-5 sums up what's so difficult about the Jags. On second down, they attempted a Y-Insert run with Etienne, but rookie Brian Thomas missed a block on Grant Delpit, who tackled Etienne behind the line for a loss of 3 yards. On third down, Lawrence was strip-sacked by Myles Garrett, who badly beat left tackle Cam Robinson around the edge. He would have had an easy completion to Christian Kirk with a little more time to throw. Having lost 11 yards in two plays, kicker Cam Little then booted his 46-yard attempt off the upright. The same kick would have been good from a shorter distance.
The passing offense just isn't consistent. Jacksonville ranks 22nd in success rate with the pass through two games. Coach Doug Pederson always likes his offenses to be effective working quick game, but the Jags have been a mess there. On throws under 2.5 seconds or less, Lawrence's minus-23.2% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) ranks last in the league. His 4.4 yards per attempt on quick game are 30th in the league, ahead of only Bryce Young and Will Levis. With Robinson struggling to begin the season, it's easy to understand why Pederson wants to get the ball out of Lawrence's hands quickly, but it's not working well.
Etienne is off to a slow start, but perhaps that shouldn't be a surprise. The 2021 first-round pick has been struggling for a while now. After finishing second among all running backs with 234 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) during the 2022 season, he managed one lone RYOE during the first half of 2023, a figure which fell to minus-78 during the collapse at the end of the season. He's at minus-2 through two games, and the impact he was expected to make as a receiver coming out of college has not materialized. He has five catches for 21 yards through two games.
It seemed telling the Jaguars looked palpably worse without being able to call upon Tank Bigsby, who was injured on a return on Sunday and missed most of the game. Third-stringer D'Ernest Johnson was the player who committed the illegal shift that took the Kirk touchdown off the board in the red zone. Jacksonville missed Evan Engram, who suffered an injury during warmups, but this offense left too many plays on the table and doesn't have any sort of consistency.
Meanwhile, the defense has allowed too many big plays, including five gains of 30 yards or more through two weeks. The Jags held the Browns to two conversions on 14 third-down attempts Sunday, but Cleveland went 3-for-3 on fourth down, including a 34-yard sweep by Jerome Ford. In a game in which the Browns were starting two backup tackles against the strength of the Jacksonville defense on the edge, the Jags sacked Deshaun Watson twice in 36 dropbacks.
Ryan Nielsen's defense helped the Browns along by committing personal fouls on back-to-back plays on one drive and a roughing the passer call on Devin Lloyd that gave the Browns a new set of downs inside the 5-yard line after a third-and-14 pass was short of the sticks. This sort of sloppy play seeped into Jacksonville's week-to-week performances last season, and it hasn't gone away in 2024.
What's even more concerning is the schedule is about to get much tougher. The Jags are about to go on a two-game road trip to face the Bills and Texans. Things are easier after that, but they need to pull out at least one (if not both) of those games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They have the talent to win those games, but they have to play smarter and stop beating themselves.
4. Los Angeles Rams
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 10.3%
Some problems are easier to understand than others. In an everything-goes-wrong season that harks back to their fateful 2022 campaign, the Rams are simply being waylaid by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. In Week 1, they lost star wideout Puka Nacua, starting guard Steve Avila and tackle Joe Noteboom, who was filling in for the suspended Alaric Jackson. All three players hit injured reserve and will miss the next month.
In Sunday's 41-10 loss to the Cardinals, the Rams sadly added to that list with another ankle injury for veteran wideout Cooper Kupp, whose career hasn't been the same since he suffered a high ankle sprain during the 2022 season. He got the new injury on a crossing route, missed a handful of plays came in for one snap to end the half, and then didn't appear after halftime. It remains to be seen whether he's available to play next week against the 49ers.
What I found so confusing, though, is how coach Sean McVay handled the one healthy standout playmaker he appears to have left. Kyren Williams has missed time in each of his first two seasons with various injuries, and a foot injury cost him minicamp time this year. Given that L.A. didn't decide to give Blake Corum a carry in Week 1, it certainly feels like it sees Williams as the lead running back.
Why, then, was Williams getting carries and checkdowns when the Rams were down 28 points in the third quarter Sunday? McVay is famously so conservative and nervous about his guys getting injured during preseason that he sits his starters throughout the entire preseason. He witnessed Todd Gurley's career shortened by an outlier workload, and while it didn't directly lead to an injury, he was dialing up bubble screens to Kupp late in blowouts in the 2022 season before the star wideout suffered his career-altering injury. With Matthew Stafford also taking unnecessary hits, I'm surprised the Rams haven't learned from the past and taken precautions to protect their players late in a blowout.
The offense was supposed to carry the team while the defense adjusted to life without Aaron Donald. Instead, after failing to hold on to a late lead and then allowing a touchdown in overtime against the Lions, the defense melted down against Arizona, allowing touchdown drives of 60, 60 and 102 yards on the first three possessions. Marvin Harrison Jr. had four catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in the opening quarter.
Harrison's first touchdown saw him run past veteran corner Tre'Davious White, who unfortunately has looked a step slow since returning from his torn Achilles. The former Bills standout already has been the nearest defender in coverage on three touchdown passes this season, tying him with Commanders rookie corner Mike Sainristil for the most of any defender. The Rams have played zone coverage at the league's fifth-highest rate during the first two weeks, and offenses are averaging 0.48 EPA per dropback against them in zone, the worst mark for any defense. They don't really have the legs to play man coverage often, but they might need to be a little more aggressive to avoid having teams pick them apart.
The Week 1 version of the Rams that lost to the Lions is a lot more like the "real" Rams than the team that just got blown out. The problem is the offense seems to be shedding key players each week, and a banged-up offensive line is about to face Nick Bosa and the 49ers next Sunday. The 49ers are struggling with injuries in their own right given the absences of Christian McCaffrey, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, but the Rams are holding on for dear life. They had lost nine straight regular-season games against the 49ers before beating them in Week 18 a year ago, although that streak doesn't include the narrow win over the Niners in the NFC Championship Game. If L.A. can't start a winning streak of its own over its rivals next week, its season might be over.
5. Tennessee Titans
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 10.8%
With a few breaks, the Titans might feel like they should be 2-0. They've led at halftime in each of their first two games. Their defense has allowed three touchdowns in two weeks and ranks 10th in EPA per play. Their new-look rushing attack, built around Tony Pollard and the mind of legendary new offensive line coach Bill Callahan, ranks 10th in the league in yards per rush attempt.
The only minor problems? Tennessee's quarterback and special teams appear to be double agents sent to sabotage the franchise. New coach Brian Callahan could be spotted muttering expletives while pacing the sideline during Sunday's loss to the Jets. After watching Will Levis' second disastrous self-inflicted turnover in two weeks, I'm guessing he wasn't the only person in Nashville with cross words on their lips.
Levis has directly cost the Titans 10 points with those two plays. In Week 1, nursing a 17-16 lead in the fourth quarter, he attempted to shovel pass his way out of a sack and threw the ball directly to Bears defender Tyrique Stevenson, who returned it for a game-deciding pick-six. Chicago won 24-17. On Sunday, on a third-and-goal in the red zone, he followed up by tossing the ball underhand and backward to Tyjae Spears on the way down of another sack, creating a fumble New York recovered.
You could forgive an inexplicable mistake or two if Levis was otherwise thriving, but he hasn't been good even outside of those two fiascoes. He's 38-of-60 for 319 yards with two touchdowns, three picks and two lost fumbles. That's 5.3 yards per attempt. His big play from Sunday, a 40-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley, was an underthrown ball that was nearly intercepted. A few plays from Levis would have sealed things up in the second half against the Bears, and he wasn't able to make them.
The Titans are asking Levis to make big-boy throws. His average pass travels 8.3 yards in the air, the fifth-highest rate in football. On throws traveling more than 20 yards in the air, though, he is 1-of-7 with that touchdown pass to Ridley and two picks. One of those interceptions was a deep over he tossed to a double-covered Treylon Burks on Sunday. While acknowledging the Titans will be better when DeAndre Hopkins is fully healthy and taking back his role in the starting lineup from Burks, there have to be better decisions from the second-year quarterback.
Special teams have also been a serious problem. In Week 1, the Titans allowed the Bears back into the game with a third-quarter blocked punt that Jonathan Owens returned for a touchdown. This week, they conspired to allow a Jets rush with four men to block another Ryan Stonehouse punt, which would absolutely inexcusable for any team, let alone one that had allowed a block the prior week and had their star punter suffer a season-ending injury on a block last season.
A good team has some margin for error in making mistakes. Patrick Mahomes has thrown terrible picks in back-to-back weeks and the Chiefs have come away with victories. The Texans fumbled away the football inside the 5-yard line Sunday night and it didn't matter. The Titans aren't that caliber of competitor, so their margin for error is much smaller. With two better decisions from Levis and competent punt blocking, they're probably 2-0 right now.
The one positive for Tennessee is it might feel good about its chances next week, as a defense that ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed against the run since the start of 2023 hosts a Packers team that was utterly committed to the run with Malik Willis in Week 2. The Titans limited the Jets to six first downs on 23 attempts, although Breece Hall had a 30-yard run and Braelon Allen scampered home for a 20-yard touchdown. They also could get a backup quarterback the following week against the Dolphins, at which point the Titans will get an early bye. If Levis continues to wreak havoc on his own team's chances, Tennessee will have to seriously think about going to Mason Rudolph before it returns in Week 6.
6. Indianapolis Colts
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 22.7%
On paper, the injury to Packers quarterback Jordan Love looked like a break for the Colts in Week 2. After losing a back-and-forth battle to the Texans in the season opener, they were going to travel to Green Bay. Malik Willis had barely been a passable quarterback during his time with the Titans, with the 2022 third-round pick posting a 48.7 passer rating across 67 career pass attempts. If Indianapolis could take advantage of a few Willis mistakes and get an early lead, it would be in position to get back on track with a key road victory.
Instead, the Colts were figuratively and literally run over. Employing an offense that an old-school high school coach would have loved, the Packers ran for 237 yards in the first half, the third-highest total racked up by any team in the first two quarters of the game since 2000. Matt LaFleur didn't trust Willis as a passer and almost entirely limited him to checkdowns and screens, but the new Packers starter went 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown in a 16-10 victory.
The Colts were able to get the Packers behind schedule early, but it just didn't matter. On the first drive, a Green Bay penalty got them into first-and-15. MarShawn Lloyd ran for 16 yards, but that was called back for holding. On the ensuing first-and-20, Josh Jacobs ran for 34 yards. The following possession saw another holding call set up a first-and-20, but the Packers picked up 16 yards on two plays, and Willis threw a touchdown pass on an out to Dontayvion Wicks on third-and-4. In a game in which the Packers had a quarterback they didn't trust, they went 10-of-17 on third down.
Willis had taken sacks on a whopping 18.3% of his dropbacks before Sunday, including one on a Hail Mary attempt during his brief time filling in for Love against the Eagles in Week 1. Owing to a combination of the game plan and Indy's struggles, though, the Colts weren't able to sack Willis once across 14 dropbacks. It didn't help when star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner went down. Buckner was limited by a back injury in practice and played one snap in the opening quarter. He was on the field for a total of nine snaps before suffering an ankle injury that required him to be carted from the sideline to the locker room.
The injuries are adding up on defense for Indy. Laiatu Latu, the team's first-round pick on the edge, left the game with a hip injury and didn't return. The team was already relying more on Latu after Samson Ebukam, who led the team with 9.5 sacks a year ago, tore his Achilles in training camp. They lost their best young corner when JuJu Brents hit injured reserve with a knee injury suffered in the opener, while starting safety Julian Blackmon also missed Sunday's loss.
With an average defense over most of the past half-decade, the Colts have usually gone about as far as their quarterbacks will take them. Sunday was an example of the growing pains they'll have to deal with Anthony Richardson, who wasn't able to uncork the devastating deep passes that drove the offense against the Texans in Week 1. Facing a Jeff Hafley defense that was expected to be among the league's most single-high-heavy defenses, Richardson instead saw split-safety looks on 56.8% of his dropbacks, going 10-of-19 for 105 yards with two interceptions against those coverages.
The Packers were happy to cede running room to Jonathan Taylor, who carried the ball 12 times for 103 yards, but the Colts had 35 pass plays against just 18 runs with a quarterback who is still learning on the fly. It's important to get Richardson reps -- and coach Shane Steichen surely wants to avoid Richardson taking the sort of pounding he did as a rookie -- but this game plan didn't seem to have much in the way of the quarterback run game, and the combination of those runs and deep passes is where Richardson shines. This game ended up being a lot of what he's still struggling to do at an NFL level, namely throwing in obvious passing situations.
A year after they nearly made it to the postseason with Gardner Minshew under center for most of the campaign, the hope for the Colts was they could build off of that surprising success with a full season from their second-year quarterback. Richardson is going to have a wildly impressive highlight reel, and he should get better as the season goes along. I'm just a little concerned his inconsistency and the injuries on defense are going to keep Indy from looking good on a consistent basis. It needs to sweep its two-game homestand against the Bears and Steelers to get back on track, given that four of its following five games will be away from Indianapolis.
7. Denver Broncos
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 4.3%
Sometimes the preseason hype is warranted. Dak Prescott turned heads all throughout training camp and into exhibition games during the 2016 preseason, but with Tony Romo entrenched as the starting quarterback, it didn't seem to matter. When Romo went down with a fractured vertebrae and Prescott took over, he looked every bit as smooth in the real games as he did against the second- and third-stringers. He took over as the starter and never looked back.
After an impressive training camp and some gaudy numbers in the preseason, the hype train was rolling in Denver for rookie first-round pick Bo Nix. There were obvious comparisons to Sean Payton's former star pupil Drew Brees, but onlookers were raving about Nix's processing speed, accuracy and decision-making. The Broncos had found their guy, right?
It's way too early to make any broader long-term judgments about Nix, but he's an extremely limited quarterback right now. To an extent I'm not sure I've seen with another young quarterback, he has shown virtually no aptitude or desire to push the ball down the field. You could walk onto the field during a Denver offensive play, set up a lounge chair 15 yards past the line of scrimmage and rest comfortably knowing neither the ball nor any of the offensive players will come anywhere near you.
Nix has averaged 5.0 yards per attempt through his first two games. He hasn't looked good on just about anything that would cause the hard camera to move. On throws between 11 and 20 air yards downfield, he is 3-of-14 for 58 yards. The average NFL quarterback completes more than 55% of those throws. On deep passes 21 or more yards downfield, he is 2-of-7 for 74 yards and two interceptions. He hit Josh Reynolds on a nice back-shoulder pass during a two-minute drill in Week 1's loss to the Seahawks, but the other one was a flea-flicker in Sunday's loss to the Steelers from a trick play with a direct snap to Javonte Williams. That drive ended with an interception in the end zone. Scheming up a trick play is fine to spark an offense, but coaches can't dial up this play every week. Nix needs to create big plays within the confines of the offense.
This is a little reminiscent of the culture war that popped up during the end of Payton's run with Brees in New Orleans, when there was a real controversy in talking about Brees regarding his air yards and the idea they didn't matter. Well, they did and they didn't. Air yards and completion percentage are a lot like batting average in baseball. If a player bats .350, he's going to be a good hitter, even if he doesn't have a lot of power. Late-career Brees was like a supercharged Tony Gwynn, an elite contact hitter who was setting completion percentage records. When quarterbacks are completing 75% of their passes, air yards don't matter.
When a quarterback is completing 63% of his passes, as Brees was early in the 2020 season when this conversation popped up, air yards do matter. If teams aren't worried about a player beating them deep, they're going to squeeze the space in the intermediate zones, send more blitzers and make it impossible for the passer to operate. Brees was able to somewhat right the ship, although his final season was eventually compromised by injuries.
Nix has to at least have the threat of beating teams in the intermediate and downfield zones to thrive. Right now, in obvious passing situations -- snaps in which the NFL's Next Gen Stats model expects at least a 75% probability of a pass play -- he is 32-of-55 for 293 yards with three picks.
The rookie hasn't gotten a ton of help so far, to be fair. Williams is averaging 2.1 yards per carry as the lead back, with his minus-47 RYOE ranking as the second-worst mark in football. Garett Bolles missed a chunk of the Week 1 loss with an injury and then committed three penalties Sunday. Greg Dulcich dropped a couple of Nix passes that should have been completions.
With a road trip to play the thriving 2-0 Buccaneers next week, Denver needs to set its expectations appropriately. It has a top-10 defense by EPA per play through two weeks, and if it can protect the football after turning the ball over five times in its first two contests, that defense might carry it to a victory or two. The idea that Nix was going to accelerate the Broncos' rebuild, however, seems like preseason bluster. He's still very much a work in progress.
8. New York Giants
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 4.3%
In the race to avoid landing in last place in the NFC East through two games, the Giants lost to the Commanders. What's worse is even they would have to admit the blows were mostly self-inflicted. Careers turn on weird moments and seemingly minor decisions, and if this is Brian Daboll's last season in New York, we might look back at the turning point as the Graham Gano affair from Week 2.
With Gano injuring his groin late in the week, there was speculation over the weekend the Giants might deactivate their starting kicker and elevate rookie Jude McAtamney to the active lineup. In the end, they decided Gano was healthy enough to play and elevated a pair of special teams coverage players to the lineup. Evan Neal, the 2022 top-10 pick who appears to have quietly lost his job at right tackle, was active without playing a snap for the second consecutive week.
Instead, a comedy of errors ensued. Gano injured his hamstring on the opening kickoff and wasn't able to play the rest of the way. Punter Jamie Gillan missed the extra point on New York's opening touchdown, which brought to an end to the kick attempts. Daboll went for two on each of their three touchdowns, with his offense going 0-for-3. While I believe going for two was the right call given the uncertainty about Gillan's ability, not having a kicker on the active roster given Gano's injury was simply short-sighted. It turned out about as poorly as possible.
The Giants were also forced to go for it on fourth downs in situations in which they might have attempted field goals. That can work out really well for teams, as it did for the Browns in their win over the Texans last season. Here, it was more of a mixed bag. Malik Nabers converted a fourth-and-3 at the Washington 31-yard line on a drive that set up a touchdown, but on an otherwise tremendous day, the rookie dropped what would have been a fourth-and-4 completion with 2:09 to go in a tie game. The Giants never saw the ball again. Throw in a Devin Singletary fumble in Commanders territory, and New York lost a game it realistically should have won.
After a rough Week 1, this was a better performance from Daniel Jones, albeit against a Commanders pass defense that occasionally looks like it is surprised to be on a football field. Daboll has restored the remarkably short passing game that helped Jones thrive in 2022, as the Giants quarterback is averaging just 2.4 air yards per pass attempt. Just 2.4% of his attempts have traveled 20 or more yards in the air, a figure topped only by Kirk Cousins, another quarterback coming off a serious injury.
The hope after swapping out the blitz-happy defensive coordinator Don Martindale for Shane Bowen was the Giants could build their defense around a wildly talented front four and have them carry an uncertain secondary to solid coverage. While rookie safety Tyler Nubin has flashed early in his career, the rest of the secondary simply hasn't been good enough. New York ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed on defense, with opposing passers completing a league-worst 79.2% of passes against it. The team signed former starter Adoree' Jackson at the end of camp out of frustration with their options, but he allowed a long pass interference penalty in Week 1 and got only a handful of snaps Sunday.
Losing to the Commanders is going to be tough to move past. There aren't any great teams ahead on the schedule, but the Giants will be in Cleveland next week, then home against a Cowboys team that beat them by a combined score of 89-17 on aggregate last season, then across the country to play the Seahawks. They won't be favored in any of those contests. Starting 1-4 or 0-5 would signal a wasted season and raise real questions about how early they turn to backup quarterback Drew Lock, if only to avoid triggering Jones' guarantees for 2025.
9. Carolina Panthers
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN's FPI: 0.3%
What can you say? The Panthers have been outscored by 60 points through two games, which has been topped only four times during the 21st century. Those four teams -- the 2019 Dolphins, 2011 Chiefs, 2008 Rams and 2001 Washington franchise -- didn't actually turn out to be quite as bad as things seemed through two games. They went a combined 22-34 the rest of the way, which isn't great, but that's the equivalent of a six- to seven-win football team in the 17-game era. Panthers fans might be wondering if their team will even score six touchdowns over the rest of the season. Things feel very bleak in Carolina.
I'm not sure there were expectations the Panthers would compete this season, but everything they did this offseason was built around making quarterback Bryce Young's life easier by building the infrastructure around the 2023 first overall pick. They hired Dave Canales away from Tampa Bay, traded for wideout Diontae Johnson from the Steelers, spent big to add guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis in free agency and used second-round picks on wide receiver Xavier Legette and running back Jonathon Brooks, the latter of whom has started the season on the PUP list.
The 2023 offense generated minus-0.13 EPA per play, which ranked 30th in the league. Through two weeks, the new-look offense has been significantly worse, averaging -0.37 EPA per play. That's the second-worst mark for any offense through two games since 2007, ahead of only those 2019 Dolphins. Carolina has one touchdown through two games and a total of seven first downs across 12 first-half drives.
The simplest thing a team can do as an offense to improve is to find something, even one thing, it does well. Maybe it runs the ball effectively on the interior. It has a solid short passing game. It can threaten teams with play-action. It protects the football. Maybe it has a guy who can win deep or a quarterback who can scare teams with his legs. If it can do one thing well, that's something to build off.
The Panthers don't do anything well. They have one completion on a pass traveling 20 or more yards in the air. They have a 26.3% success rate on the ground, the league's second-worst rate, and rank last in the league in QBR on play-action. Young threw an interception on his very first pass of the season, and the Panthers have four turnovers through two games. He has a 27.6 passer rating while on the run and five scrambles for just 18 yards, less than half the league average.
What's left is a low-floor, low-ceiling offense stuck struggling to fit short passes into tight windows. Young had 18 completions for just 84 yards in Sunday's loss to the Chargers. No quarterback in NFL history has completed as many passes in a single game without making it to 100 yards. The previous record low for a game with 18 completions was 110 yards. Young -- who was benched on Monday -- wasn't even close to that.
Bryce Young's passing chart today. pic.twitter.com/3q69kFmrUa
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 15, 2024
Young looks bereft of confidence and unable to create out of structure, the opposite of the quarterback we saw at his college peak. His receivers still aren't very fast, and he's yet to get on the same page with Johnson, who has 34 receiving yards on 49 routes through two games. Perhaps the Panthers will look better if they can avoid falling behind quickly and don't find themselves in positions where they need to throw, but we haven't seen what that version of this offense looks like.
What has been disconcerting is just how awful the defense has been to match. Carolina's defense has ranged from solid to below average over the past two seasons, but it also looks hopeless. It has allowed opposing offenses to succeed on more than 51% of it rush attempts in terms of generating positive EPA, the third-worst rate for any team in the league. The Chargers ran the ball 44 times for a whopping 219 yards, including a 43-yard touchdown from J.K. Dobbins.
A pass rush that lacks Brian Burns and lost star defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season in the opener (knee) ranks last in pressure rate (8.5%). Cornerback Jaycee Horn has been a Pro Bowl-caliber player in between injuries as a pro, but he was beat on a fade by Quentin Johnston for a touchdown Sunday, his second score allowed in two weeks. He did come up with an interception on a bad decision by a scrambling Justin Herbert, but if he's not excelling, Carolina doesn't have much hope given the talent elsewhere on this roster.
The Panthers might have hoped to benefit from a weak division in what even they must have expected to be a transitional year under Canales, but the Buccaneers and Saints have both started 2-0, burying Carolina further in the NFC South basement. The good news, I suppose, is the Panthers are at least in position to benefit from another disastrous season, given they hold their first-round pick after sending last year's to the Bears in the Young deal.