The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers begin the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+). The Cats are seeking their first Stanley Cup. The Oilers are seeking to win one for the first time since 1990.
Who wins the Cup? Great question.
Here are 20 more questions whose answers will determine whether Florida or Edmonton hoists hockey's chalice in a few weeks, ranging from data-driven queries to player performances and strategy to more ethereal concepts.
1. What's the greater motivator: Unfinished business or superstar destiny?
The Panthers' run to the Stanley Cup Final last season saw them shock the world with a first-round upset of the Boston Bruins, the best regular-season team in NHL history, followed by an 8-1 run that eliminated both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes. They looked like a juggernaut heading into the Final against the Vegas Golden Knights. But under the hood, the Panthers' engine was falling apart.
Defenseman Aaron Ekblad as playing on a broken foot with two dislocated shoulders. Fellow blueliners Radko Gudas and Brandon Montour were injured, with the latter needing postseason surgery. Center Sam Bennett was banged up. Then came the biggest blow: Matthew Tkachuk, their unquestioned MVP, broke his sternum in the Final and was a nonfactor after Game 3.
They were haunted by what might have been. So, the mission became "get healthy and get ready," because the Panthers were going to finish the story on their terms this season.
For the Oilers, it wasn't about getting back but getting there in the first place. Edmonton had lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champion in consecutive postseasons. What once felt like certainty that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl would eventually win a Cup started to become more pessimistic. It's often said that teams have to lose before they win. Draisaitl had reached that point, like Nathan MacKinnon before him, of being nauseated by the thought of another educational elimination.
"We can sit here five more years and say, 'Yeah, you got to go through these things.' But eventually, it's enough suffering. It's enough learning lessons, you know?" he told me before the season. "Eventually, it's about doing it and implementing these lessons and giving yourself the best crack at winning."
The Panthers are four wins away from completing their business. The Oilers are four wins away from graduating. What's the greater motivation?
2. Is Connor McDavid, like Thanos, inevitable?
McDavid has 31 points in 18 games this postseason. He has scored in 14 games, with nine multipoint games. Since Kris Knoblauch, who was McDavid's coach in junior hockey, was hired by Edmonton, the Oilers star hasn't gone more than one game without a point in the regular season or postseason.
McDavid is always seemingly chasing a record, and this time it's a Wayne Gretzky mark: He is within range of Gretzky's NHL record for most assists in a single postseason. Connor has 26 helpers, and Gretzky holds the record with 31 assists (1988). But within this Stanley Cup Final comes another great defensive battle for McDavid. He already has overcome tight-checking teams in the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks as well as elite defenders such as Anze Kopitar and Miro Heiskanen during the playoffs.
The Panthers are the final boss as the best defensive team in the regular season (2.41 goals-against average) and second best in the playoffs (2.29 GAA), led by the top defensive forward in the NHL, by way of the 2023-24 Selke Trophy, in Aleksander Barkov.
Remember Mika Zibanejad? Who had points in nine of 10 games before facing the Panthers in the Eastern Conference finals? He went scoreless in five of six games, managing just two assists, thanks in part to seeing copious amounts of Sasha Barkov.
It could be the one-on-one matchup of the Final. But Panthers coach Paul Maurice cautions that it isn't about one guy trying to stop McDavid or Draisaitl.
"You can't play a one-on-one game with them. They're just too fast, too strong, too skilled. So it's a five-man defensive game," Maurice said. "Everything else that comes out of my mouth will be a cliché."
3. Will this be the Matthew Tkachuk series?
Tkachuk has been great for the Panthers, leading the team with 19 points in 17 playoff games. It's just that last postseason he was nothing short of spectacular, with heroic MVP moments in each round: the overtime winner in Boston in Game 5; the three game-winners against Carolina, including in the legendary four-overtime Game 1 of the conference finals; and the "Bus In 10" goal against Carolina in Game 2.
Were it not for a broken sternum in the Stanley Cup Final, Tkachuk might have garnered Conn Smythe Trophy support in a losing effort for the Panthers.
The good news for Maurice is that Florida hasn't needed to ride Tkachuk to this Final.
"We're a little bit deeper this year," the coach said. "He hasn't necessarily needed to be the 'save the day' kind of guy."
But now it's for the Stanley Cup. It's the final stage, and Tkachuk is a leading man with a story to finish from last season. Will we see "Bus in 10" again?
4. What happens if Stuart Skinner has a clunker?
Skinner has been one of the most charming stories of the postseason -- and not just because he revealed he uses Toad during intense intra-team games of Mario Kart.
The Edmonton netminder's save percentage after eight playoff games (five of them wins): .877. His save percentage in his next eight playoff games, six of them wins, after Knoblauch benched him against the Canucks: .919. Add to that a stellar 1.81 GAA behind an increasingly good Oilers defense, whose earlier play was as much a reason for Skinner's benching as the goalie's performance.
Skinner hasn't just been "the goalie you hope doesn't lose you the series," as I've labeled him for two years. In the Western Conference finals, Knoblauch credited him as a key to their victory over the Dallas Stars.
Skinner isn't a problem for Edmonton right now. What if he becomes one? What if the Panthers get to him for four goals, which has happened five times with Skinner this postseason, and the Edmonton goalie gets the blame for the loss? Does it shake the Oilers' confidence in him? Do the fans and media revisit their early playoff criticism?
Say this about Skinner: The guy can bounce back. He's 13-2 after losses going back to February.
5. Does travel experience favor Edmonton?
According to the NHL, the Oilers and Panthers are 2,541 miles apart, the furthest distance between two teams in a Stanley Cup Final. The previous record was set during the 2011 Final between the Canucks and Bruins at 2,500 miles apart.
The Oilers just came off a series in which they traveled back and forth to Dallas. That was after an opening-round series that including travel to Los Angeles.
After facing their in-state rivals from Tampa Bay in the first round, the Panthers traveled up the East Coast to play the Bruins and the New York Rangers.
The Panthers benefit from having home-ice advantage, not having to schlep all the way to Alberta to start the series. After that, will the Oilers have an advantage having logged more miles than Florida has in the playoffs?
Maurice believes it won't be a detriment for this team.
"We all know how to deal with it. I don't know if there's an advantage," the coach said.
6. Will the Panthers turn Edmonton conservative?
The Rangers packed up their lockers Tuesday and answered a lot of questions about what went wrong against the Panthers in the conference finals. Specifically, how their goal scoring dried up after fueling New York in the first two rounds.
Multiple players talked about how the Panthers' aggressive checking made New York play more conservatively on offense. The Rangers were concerned about trying to force things, leading to a mistake -- and a Florida goal the other way.
Rangers winger Artemi Panarin said that mindset muted their offense at even strength and on the power play.
"In my opinion, we did not take a little bit extra risk, which you have to do because we have the skills. You kind of got to trust your instincts, which we do not do enough," he said. "They're a great team. Hard to play against."
McDavid and Draisaitl aside, the Oilers don't have a ton of danglers on their roster. It's a lot of north-south hockey that can still produce against tight checking, thanks to the team's stripped-down approach this postseason. But the Panthers are so good defensively that they create doubt and seed hesitancy. Edmonton can't allow that to take hold.
7. Can Florida shut down another all-world power play?
The Oilers' power play is a masterpiece of offensive effectiveness.
McDavid skates around the zone with the puck like he's Magic Johnson, waiting for a moment to create a scoring chance. Draisaitl fires pucks on net from the wing like he's in an All-Star skills competition. Evan Bouchard blasts pucks from the blue line. Zach Hyman is in front to collect those point-blank chances. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was called "the facilitator" of the power play by Knoblauch.
They're 19-for-51 on the power play this postseason. That 37.3% conversion rate would be the second-best percentage in a postseason in franchise history and the fourth best by any team in a single postseason since tracking began in 1977-78. Ahead of them in Oilers history? Their power play from last postseason (46.2%, 18-39).
The Panthers have the second-best penalty kill in the playoffs (88.2%) -- behind the Oilers (93.9%). The Panthers just came off a series in which they held the Rangers to one power-play goal on 15 chances. While a lingering injury to defenseman Adam Fox might have hindered them, the Rangers had one of the most effective power plays in the regular season -- and the Panthers smothered it.
Can Florida do the same to the Oilers? A lot will depend on Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a .905 save percentage on the penalty kill in the postseason.
8. "Playoff Bob" vs. Zach Hyman: Who wins the high-danger battle?
The Oilers winger basically owns property in the high-danger areas of the offensive zone. Hyman has 34 high-danger shot attempts at 5-on-5 in the playoffs to lead all skaters. That number balloons to 61 high-danger attempts in all situations. According to NHL Edge, Hyman has 48 shots on goal from that area -- the league average is four per player -- and has scored 10 of his 14 goals from around the crease.
But Bobrovsky is one of the NHL's best goaltenders in defending high-danger chances. Bob's 5-on-5 save percentage (.849) actually ranks a tick lower than that of Skinner (.850), but Bobrovsky more than makes up for it on the penalty kill, during which he has stopped 23 of 24 high-danger chances. Bobrovsky is second in the playoffs to Boston's Jeremy Swayman in goals saved above expected from the inner slot (2.71).
This promises to be one of the best game-within-the-game battles of the series. Now we wait to see which player can say that "danger" is his middle name.
9. Will Evander Kane do anything?
The Edmonton Journal reports that Kane is dealing with a sports hernia issue. That helps explain his paltry output in the playoffs so far, as Kane has just eight points in 18 games. He has only one assist in his past seven outings. He played less than 14 minutes in Games 4 and 5 against Dallas and left Game 6 with an apparent injury after nine shifts and 4:39 of ice time.
But Knoblauch might have big plans for him in the Stanley Cup Final, teasing a reunion between Kane, Draisaitl and Dylan Holloway on a line. That line had a 59.3% expected goals percentage earlier in the playoffs. Draisaitl drives the line, Holloway has speed and forechecking, and Kane -- theoretically -- is the finisher.
"The three of them play together really well," Knoblauch said.
Will Kane get it going? More to the point: Can Kane get it going?
10. Rats vs. meat: Which has more playoff magic?
In Florida, they throw rubber rats.
If you don't know the tradition, watch the "Year of the Rat" piece that "The Point" ran last season explaining what happened in 1995 when Scott Mellanby unexpectedly ended up face-to-face with a rat in the Panthers locker room -- and the very odd tradition that followed.
In Edmonton, they throw ... beef?
Some fans have taken to throwing top quality Albertan beef on the ice during games. One steak showed up in Game 6 against the Canucks. This is actually a tradition that stretches back to 2006, when the Oilers faced the Detroit Red Wings in the first round of the playoffs. Detroit was famous for fans tossing octopuses on the ice during games. At the behest of a local DJ, Edmonton fans started throwing slabs of meat on the ice. After the Oilers upset Detroit, the tradition carried on to other (top) rounds, and now it's back.
11. Will Evan Bouchard's offensive roll end against Florida?
Bouchard has been an absolute revelation for the Oilers in the playoffs, tallying 27 points in 18 games. His booming shot from the blue line gets through traffic more often than not, with 54 shots on goal in the playoffs.
Can he find the same success against the Panthers?
Florida allowed the 12th-most shots per 60 minutes from opposing defensemen in the regular season, per Stathletes. But the Panthers gave up the second-fewest goals per 60 to opposing defensemen (0.249), behind only the Hurricanes (0.221).
It's not all about blocking shots, although the Panthers do their share of that. Florida actually blocks fewer shots (15.4) than the Oilers do (16.5) per 60 minutes. It's about pressuring the blue line when opposing defensemen have the puck and getting it out of the zone before they can set up for a shot. We'll see if Bouchard continues to rack up points against this stingy defense.
12. Is Anton Lundell the ultimate X factor?
Lundell is the Panthers' third-line center, but he could easily play in the top six for any team in the NHL -- and frequently moves up into that role for Florida. He has 12 points in 17 playoff games this postseason. The third-year center, known to some as "Baby Barkov," had the game-tying goal in the Panthers' series-clinching game against Boston and the critical tie-breaking goal in their clinching game versus the Rangers.
At age 22, Lundell has grown fearless in the postseason.
"He does a lot of hard things very well, and that usually takes them a while. It's not that they don't want to; they just never have had to go this hard for every puck," Maurice said. "I'm really excited about how he's developed."
13. Can the Oilers pull off a St. Louis turnaround?
The Oilers can become the third team in NHL history to reach the Stanley Cup Final after being 10-plus points out of a playoff spot during the regular season. The only team to do that in the past 60 years? The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues, who went from worst to first under coach Craig Berube.
The only other time it happened was for the 1958-59 Maple Leafs during the Original Six years, as they had a dramatic regular season only to lose in the playoffs. So, very on-brand for them.
14. Will Kris Knoblauch continue to mash the right buttons?
Knoblauch can become the fifth coach since 1968 to win the Stanley Cup in his first season as an NHL head coach. The last guy to do it was just hired by the Seattle Kraken: Dan Bylsma, who coached the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Cup in 2009. The Oilers are trying to become the third team in 12 seasons to win the Cup after an in-season coaching change, following Pittsburgh in 2016 and St. Louis in 2019.
The Oilers went 46-18-5 under Knoblauch, which wasn't enough to earn him a Jack Adams Award nomination, but he probably isn't losing any sleep over that these days. He turned their season around, found the right ways to maximize their roster and got the Oilers playing solid defense. They had the ninth-best expected goals against at 5-on-5 in the NHL under Knoblauch. (A healthy assist from assistant coach Paul Coffey on this achievement.)
Despite Knoblauch being a Stanley Cup tournament novice, I don't know if he has made a misstep in the playoffs yet.
Knoblauch benched Skinner and revitalized both his goalie and his defense. The coach made several lineup changes in the Dallas series that paid off. He has known when to pair McDavid and Draisaitl together, but not overdo it. His timeout in Game 7 against Vancouver was critical. Overall, he has Edmonton playing championship-caliber defense and a no-frills style of hockey.
Not bad for a guy who started the year coaching AHL Hartford.
15. Will Paul Maurice win one for the retreads?
Hockey fans tend to roll their eyes when a well-traveled coach gets another job behind an NHL bench. I'm as guilty as anyone when it comes to that, and I certainly gave my peepers a tumble when Maurice replaced Andrew Brunette -- a Jack Adams Award finalist as an interim coach -- two years ago for the Panthers. It was Maurice's fifth tour of duty in the NHL over four decades. When an NHL head coach's stats page starts with the Hartford Whalers, he has certainly blown the whistle once or twice or 500,000 times.
To say Maurice was the right man for this job is now an understatement. The Panthers have won 50 playoff games in their franchise history. In just two seasons, Maurice is responsible for half of them. He is the 10th head coach to take a team to the Stanley Cup Final in his first two seasons with the franchise and the first since Mike Sullivan led the Penguins to the Cup in 2016-17.
As much as Knoblauch's first-year success has been seen as a possible trend, three of the four coaches in the conference finals fell squarely into retread territory: Maurice, the Rangers' Peter Laviolette (sixth team) and the Stars' Peter DeBoer (fifth team). Maybe reruns will be the trend instead. Looking at you, Bruce Boudreau.
16. Can the Oilers handle the Panthers' style of play?
The Panthers are the Stanley Cup playoffs' blunt instrument. They lead the postseason in hits (739), with players such as Tkachuk playing better when they're throwing the body. In previous rounds, that physicality has manifested in battle damage for opposing players: Witness Brad Marchand leaving the Bruins' series against Florida after taking a glove to the head from Bennett.
The Panthers walk a tightrope with their physicality, as they're fourth in the playoffs in penalties taken per 60 minutes (3.97) for teams that advanced beyond the first round. Their penalty kill has covered up for lapses in discipline.
For whatever reason, Dallas didn't bring the thunder against the Oilers as far as physical play. But Draisaitl said Edmonton has shown it can handle whatever Florida throws at them.
"But we're certainly not intimidated by physicality. We've handled it well in the Vancouver series, handled it well in the L.A. series," he said.
17. Can anyone beat the Panthers (in the third period)?
Word of advice to the Oilers: Have your house in order before the final period of regulation. The Panthers have absolutely owned their third period in the playoffs. They lead all teams with a plus-13 goal differential, a plus-53 shots on goal differential and a plus-48 scoring chance differential -- and the next highest scoring chance differential is Edmonton, at plus-12.
Florida is 7-0 when leading after two periods. The Oilers, incidentally, are 11-1 when leading after two periods.
18. Have the Oilers figured out championship-caliber defense?
There were long stretches against the Stars when the Oilers dictated terms to their opponents, controlling place of play and the puck itself. They have a goals-against per 60 minutes rate of 2.32 since Skinner was benched against Vancouver. They've been exceptional on the penalty kill, going 46 for 49 in the postseason.
It hasn't been perfect for Edmonton. There have been stretches where games that appeared firmly in their grasp have suddenly slipped away, like in the third period of Game 7 against Vancouver and the first 10 minutes of the second period of Game 3 against Dallas. But they seem to be putting together more complete efforts as the postseason rolls on.
A question within a question: Is going into a defensive shell with a lead considered championship-caliber defense, or playing with fire? When the Oilers are leading, they have an expected-goals per 60 minutes of 1.85 vs. a 2.40 rate in all situations. Their shots per 60 minutes drops by nearly four at 5-on-5. The Panthers stay on the attack with a lead. The Oilers are the opposite. Can that work for another round?
19. Who wins Game 1?
We like to believe hockey is a nuanced and complex game. But the reality is that it's sometimes just about the big obvious things. A hot goalie is the great equalizer. Sometimes the puck just bounces the wrong way. And winning the first game of the Stanley Cup Final greatly increases a team's chances of winning the whole thing.
Teams that that Game 1 of the Final have gone on to win the series 76% of the time. Each of the last three winners have won Game 1.
Good news for Oilers fans: The team appears to have put its chronic Game 1 problem behind it, having gone 2-1 in Games 1 this season after losing seven straight series openers in the playoffs. (The Panthers are also 2-1 in series openers this postseason.)
20. Finally, is it time for the Canadian Cup drought to end?
The Oilers are not Canada's team. That's a silly notion. If this was Connor McDavid on Team Canada, sure, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you, McD. But fans of the other Canadian NHL franchises want their own teams to win the Cup, not the Oilers. Does anyone actually believe that someone in Calgary is going to root for the Oilers and against Matthew Tkachuk in the Final?
That said, this is Canada's moment, as Edmonton attempts to become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since Montreal in 1993. The Canucks (twice), Oilers, Flames, Canadiens and Senators all had their shots at breaking the drought and fell short. To put things in perspective, Canada has seen an NBA champion (Raptors, 2019) and World Series champion (Blue Jays, 1993) since the nation last had a Stanley Cup champion.
McDavid is in line for an all-time Canadian hat trick: Stanley Cup winner in 2024, leading Canada to victory in the first Four Nations tournament in 2025 and Olympic gold in 2026.
Can McDavid do it? Great question ...