GLOBAL MACROS
Fed rate cuts likely to be gradual, starting with 25 bps in September: Ajay Bagga
Market expert Ajay Bagga discusses the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, with further cuts expected in November and December. He highlights the impact on emerging markets, particularly India, and suggests sectors like financials, FMCG, and pharma as promising investments amid global economic easing.
Global warming’s economic risks to rise most quickly for the rich
This could lead to substantial macroeconomic losses due to generally stronger consumption levels among higher-income groups.
How will Trump’s threat of 100% tariff on countries moving away from dollar impact India? Arnab Das answers
Arnab Das from Invesco discusses Donald Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on countries moving away from the US dollar. He argues that Trump's stance is politically driven and lacks economic logic. Das also highlights the significant role of the US dollar in global markets and mentions gold as a partial alternative.
Dollar tentative, yen dips on muddled Fed rate-cut outlook
The dollar remained steady while the yen gave up some gains as investors awaited a Federal Reserve rate cut decision. Mixed U.S. jobs data left traders uncertain about the scale of the cut. The yen, euro, and sterling showed minor changes in early Asia trade, with eyes on upcoming U.S. inflation data for further clues.
FSDC panel reviews macro developments
The Financial Stability and Development Council's sub-committee, chaired by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, reviewed key global and domestic macroeconomic and financial developments. They discussed inter-regulatory coordination and potential risks to financial stability, focusing on improving resilience amid emerging challenges like global spillovers, cyber hazards, and climate change.
India still looks more attractive than other EMs; macro environment very stable: Pratik Gupta
Oil and gas is another sector where we are seeing companies embarking on very heavy capex. There is a lot of dependency on government policy regulations, capital allocation remains a concern and valuations are not necessarily cheap. So, oil and gas is another one.
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Market to hover around current levels due to global volatility: Sudip Bandyopadhyay
Considering these factors, I do not believe that the Indian market will fall significantly. Instead, it is likely to hover around current levels for some time due to global market volatility. This volatility and consolidation at elevated levels are actually beneficial for the market’s long-term health.
On the stock market front, it’s too early to panic, let the froth flow out
Japan’s recent interest rate increase led to market pullbacks from international investors. The unwinding of leveraged trades added volatility to US and emerging markets. Concerns about US unemployment and inflation pressures prompted these moves, despite strong corporate balance sheets and liquidity levels remaining stable.
Bull market correction: Accelerated Fed rate cuts from Sept may see unwinding in EMs, carry trades, says Pankaj Murarka
Pankaj Murarka, CIO of Renaissance Investment Managers, highlighted a potential shift in global markets due to expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts. He suggested market corrections and sectoral rotations might follow. Despite global uncertainties, Murarka expressed optimism about India's market fundamentals and identified long-term opportunities in sectors such as IT, healthcare, and commodities.
Vinit Bolinjkar on power sector strength and macro economic concerns
Vinit Bolinjkar highlights the power sector as a strong performer, driven by global expansion and robust fundamentals. He also discusses macroeconomic concerns, such as rising interest rates in Japan and the potential slowdown in China, and their implications for the Indian market.
IT companies see shift in deal scope on GenAI, muted market
Indian IT service firms are adapting to client demands for enhanced productivity and expanded scope of work, potentially impacting profit margins. IT companies are gifting productivity gains to clients during deals’ anniversaries
In 10 years, India no longer a charity case, it's the driving force of world economy: Sanjeev Sanyal
There are no such things as poor people. They are poor places. Say two brothers grew up in Moradabad. One of them stays back in Moradabad and another went off to Dubai. After five years, one person will be earning a lot more than the other. Why does this happen? It is because places matter, says Sanjeev Sanyal
Industrials strong, but be careful about valuations: Hiren Dasani of Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt
"Emerging market equities, as an asset class, are not seeing inflows. They have seen outflows. The US is doing much better than the broader emerging market. The other dynamic is there is also a very strong AI (artificial intelligence)-driven theme that is driving the markets like Taiwan, which is a global supply chain for the entire AI-related and semiconductor segments"
GIFT Nifty signals a muted start for D-Street. Here's the trading setup for today's session
On Thursday, the stock markets ended with slight gains after trading positively throughout the day, supported by robust Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) activity and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
GIFT Nifty signals a positive start for D-Street. Here's the trading setup for today's session
Domestic markets continued to reach new record highs, building on gains made since the election results. "The market is also benefiting from positive trends in global markets, particularly in the US as it progresses steadily towards the presidential election in November. Volatility has decreased this month, supporting a short-term upward trend," explained Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal.
Finance Minister on Day 1: Pledges more steps to ensure 'ease of living'; reforms drive to continue
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has expressed optimism for India's economic outlook, stating that reform momentum will continue to spur growth and ensure macro-economic stability. She has emphasized India's "commendable growth story" amid global turmoil and pledged more steps to ensure ease of living. The Indian economy has seen an average of over 8% annual growth since the Covid-induced output contraction in FY21.
See policy continuity even with coalition government: Gokul Laroia, CEO, Morgan Stanley Asia
Morgan Stanley's Asia CEO Gokul Laroia discussed Indian elections, markets, and risks with Nishanth Vasudevan before an investor conference.
We don't expect rate cut in 2024 unless growth or inflation surprises on downside: Tanvee Gupta Jain
I think the political outcome was suggesting that there is kind of a weak sentiment at the lower end of the income pyramid. And whether we accept it or not but India has seen a K-shaped consumption recovery post the pandemic. So, most of the high frequency data that we track are clearly indicating that affluent, premium segment demand in India has been doing well.
Will RBI start cutting interest rates from October? Dr Samiran Chakraborty answers
In Citi's house view, we think that the Fed rate cut will start early, so we have put our first RBI rate cut in October, to some extent also factoring that in that if Fed moves earlier, then RBI gets the scope to move as well.
Macro policy choices unclear, but work cut out on reforms agenda
In FY24, nominal GDP grew 9.6%, CPI inflation recorded 5.4%, and real GDP growth was estimated at 8.2%.
Thematic focus on infra, renewables and real estate likely to continue: Harsh Gupta Madhusudan
Chinese valuations are roughly half of India's, but Chinese earnings growth is also significantly lower. The China trade is more tactical and opportunistic.
Moody's projects 6.8 per cent GDP expansion in 2024 on strong growth, post-election policy continuity
Moody's Ratings projected India's growth at 6.8% in 2024, followed by 6.5% in 2025. The prediction was driven by economic expansion and post-election policy continuity. The real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2023, with strong government spending and manufacturing activity. High-frequency indicators suggest sustained momentum in the economy. Moody's expects 6-7% annual GDP growth with policy continuity and increased capital expenditure. Private investment outlook is positive, despite inflation volatility.
India has potential to capture a large share of global defense market: Mark Matthews
I think there is scope for further expansion if the earnings grow and if the economy grows, then the earnings will grow. If the economy grows by let us say 6-7-8% per year, then I think it is reasonable to assume earnings grow by 12-13-14% per year and if you compound that a couple of years, then actually India is not expensive.
S&P Global will likely raise India's rating within 2 years, Citi says
Citi anticipates S&P Global Ratings will upgrade India's sovereign rating by late 2026, following S&P's recent outlook improvement to 'positive' from 'stable'. Citi cites S&P's confidence in India's economic fundamentals and fiscal trajectory. India's fiscal health, aiming to reduce its deficit, is key to the potential upgrade.
Growth momentum likely to stay in Q1FY25: FinMin
The finance ministry's April report predicts strong economic activity in FY25, with rising industrial activity and fixed investments. Positive macro-economic indicators include a bright manufacturing outlook and improved services sector, supported by increased capacity utilization and EPFO data.
Normal southwest monsoon augurs well for food production, easing price pressures, says FinMin in monthly review
In its review, the Finance Ministry also reiterated its faith in India's ability to deal with adverse pressures from geopolitical tensions, while continuing to make progress on its growth numbers. "The positive indications in the farm sector should help India firewall against any adverse pressures that may arise from geopolitical tensions and global commodity prices," the review from the Finance Ministry said.
Foreign-themed mutual funds rally up to 80% in a year. Should you go international?
International funds, including top performers like Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF, showed strong growth. However, concerns arise with Sebi's restrictions on overseas ETF investments and varying earnings growth in indices like Hang Seng and CSI 300.
Will Nifty hit fresh record high before elections? That depends on these 5 factors
The week may remain lacklustre on the data front as no major economic data releases are scheduled in both the US as well as the Indian market. Indian investors are likely to focus more on the ongoing earnings season as well as stock specific developments. Nifty and Sensex have reached all-time highs driven by US Fed data and expert insights. Key factors that will shape market outlook.
India well-poised to get to $80-100 billion PE-VC deployment in 5 years: report
Private equity and venture capital firms remain cautious due to global macro conditions in 2024. India is expected to benefit from outsized capital allocation, reaching $80-100 billion in annual deployment over the next five years.
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