OPEC PLUS
Geopolitical tensions threaten supply-demand outlook of commodities
Recent economic data from the US, China, and Europe fell short of expectations, heightening concerns about a sluggish global economy and its impact on oil demand. However, potential supply disruptions from the Middle East due to ongoing conflicts, along with OPEC+ production policies, helped limit the losses in oil prices.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude are the main types of crude oil traded globally. WTI, mainly sourced from the United States, is lighter and has a lower sulfur content compared to Brent, making it easier and more cost-effective to refine into gasoline and other petroleum products.
This year crude prices will touch $85-87, but long-term, oil is headed to $70: Dr Fereidun Fesharaki
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki forecasted that the long-term oil price would remain around $70 per barrel. He cited strong supply-demand fundamentals and increasing carbon costs. Geopolitical issues had minimal impact on supply due to OPEC's excess capacity. Additionally, he discussed how evolving demands, especially from electric vehicles, and gas prices are affecting the market.
Middle East tensions may attract speculative waves in crude oil prices
Oil prices declined amid global recession fears, though losses were limited by potential Middle Eastern supply disruptions and US inventory drawdowns. Weak economic data from the US, China, and Europe heightened concerns. Geopolitical tensions and OPEC Plus production policies further influenced the market, while reduced Chinese demand and refinery activity added to the fluctuations.
Crude oil prices at two-month highs. What is causing the surge?
Crude oil prices rose 6% in June due to OPEC+ production cuts and US summer fuel demand. WTI, Brent, and MCX futures gained. Geopolitical risks, hurricanes, like Hurricane Beryl, influenced prices. Energy agencies predict slower oil demand growth and surplus amid energy transitions. China's and India's demand are key. Fed rate cut decisions also impact oil markets.
Oil prices stable as markets believe major stakeholders don't want hostilities to escalate: Hardeep Singh Puri
Global oil prices holding at $82/barrel despite OPEC supply cuts, wars, and uncertainties. Oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri believes major stakeholders don't want hostilities to escalate, maintaining supply-demand equilibrium. OPEC and allies control market by keeping 7 million barrels/day off the market.
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OPEC switches to 'call on OPEC+' in global oil demand outlook, sources say
OPEC will stop publishing a calculation of the world's demand for its own crude in its monthly oil report, two sources close to the matter said, focusing instead on forecasts for demand for oil from the wider OPEC+ group.
Golden era for refiners coming? Why Indian companies will make a lot of money
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki highlights the shifting dynamics in the global refining and energy markets, emphasizing the growth potential in Asia, particularly India, and the geopolitical factors influencing the oil market's stability. He says: "Up to a million barrels per day of Russian refineries are out of commission and this means that Russian exports of refined products have fallen quite dramatically and that has helped the margins. But the key issue is that nobody is building new refineries in the world today. "
Crude price likely to be $90-95 a barrel by end of this year; next year, maybe a little lower at $75-85: Dr Fereidun Fesharaki
Dr Fereidun Fesharaki forecasts continued gasoline sector growth for a decade, with EV impact in 2030s. Oil complex peaks in mid-2030s, then stabilizes. Global demand remains steady by 2045 despite evolving factors like technology and geopolitics. Dr Fesharaki says: "We are looking at $90 to $95 a barrel by the end of this year. And next year, maybe a little bit lower, $75, $85. "
Crude oil prices are already up 10% this year. What’s next?
The Middle East is a critical area for global energy production and transportation, with several major oil-producing countries that combinedly contribute more than 30 percent of global oil production.
Geopolitical tensions and global growth outlook to give crude oil price direction in 2024
The new geopolitical risk in West Asia was speculated to raise global oil prices as the region is one of the most important oil-producing and transporting zones.
Geopolitical crisis, Fed, and China factor hampered commodity demand in 2023
Gold was the best-performing asset in the commodities gaining more than 15 percent in 2023.
Crude oil prices: Demand-supply dynamics not favourable for immediate recovery
Despite the ongoing output cut by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC plus countries, oil output from the cartel has risen for the third straight month in October. This was due to increased production from Nigeria and Angola. Small members in the group have also contributed by managing to overcome factors affecting output and supply. As per the Reuters report, the group pumped 27.90 million bpd in September, with an increase of 180,000 barrels per day.
Oil price to stay in $90-95 range, may not hit $100: Fereidun Fesharaki
"The question is, what happens next year? And next year, we think the demand growth will be much smaller than this year because the Covid recovery phase is over. Opec says that it still expects 2.4 million barrels per day growth. Many people, including ourselves, think that the demand growth will be maybe 1.2-1.4 million barrels per day. If indeed the demand growth is lower, then Opec needs to continue to cut back. "
Crude oil price at 10-month high. Now what’s next?
Looking ahead, though a tight supply outlook offers support to oil prices in the immediate run, other catalysts like worries over the global growth outlook and a firm US currency likely to halt major gains. On the price side, US WTI crude has stiff resistance at $94 a barrel which needs to be cleared for further rallies. Otherwise, there are chances of a choppy with mild negative bias trading on the cards.
Oil prices set for sixth weekly gain as producers pledge output cuts
Brent on Thursday clawed back a 2% drop in the Wednesday session, leaving futures set for a 0.4% weekly gain, while WTI was to close the week up 1.4% higher after U.S. crude inventories fell by the most ever on Wednesday.
Why crude oil prices are under pressure even after surprise output cut from Saudi Arabia
Despite Saudi Arabia's announcement of output cuts and efforts by OPEC Plus to limit supplies into 2024, global crude oil prices continue to remain low due to high Russian oil flows, increased US production, and weak economic growth outlook. Rising inventories and expectations of increased US production alongside a fragile demand further dampen price outlook. Russia's unabated flow of oil and China's struggling economy also contribute to a moderate demand outlook, which may cap potential price gains and keep active US WTI crude prices between $79 to $64 a barrel.
Recovery slippery with OPEC+ action
Oil-producing countries are seeking price support through production cuts, creating a divide with oil-consuming countries and delaying a global economic recovery. The April announcement by OPEC+ members led by Russia, which agreed to pump less oil, initially boosted prices, but weakened demand has brought it back down. The discord between oil buyers and sellers could force central banks to maintain higher interest rates for longer, and create volatility in reserve holdings and production from alternative places. Meanwhile, emerging economies such as India face an uncertain recovery path due to the outbreak of hostilities.
Oil prices to remain in mid-70s range for next six months: Vandana Hari
So, Russia is not keen to implement any further cuts. In fact, it has not even fully implemented the cuts that it had promised of about half a million barrels per day.
Surprise output cut decision by OPEC Plus countries heating up crude oil markets
This move was unexpected as the producer’s allies earlier hinted that they did not intend to make changes in their production policies. Although the latest announcement made some sharp upticks in global oil prices, its impact may be limited as the global economy is going through a challenging phase.
OPEC plus decision to reduce production surprising on several fronts: Vandana Hari
But the other thing that was a major dampener on the markets and partly explains OPEC's latest move is that Chinese oil demand rebound has not panned out as had been expected or as let us say the most bullish in the oil markets participants had probably hoped for at the start of this year.
Is the downtrend in crude prices sustainable? Vandana Hari explains
“Demand generally is softening and that is a bearish pressure on crude prices but we still have to see what happens around the December 5 ban, which is coming into place. The EU is going to stop importing Russian crude by that date and has a host of other embargos that are also coming into place.”
Don’t really see G-7 price cap on Russian oil taking off but it creates uncertainty: Vandana Hari
“I expect a rollover or a token cut in the OPEC Plus meeting. They increased production by about 100,000 barrels per day for September which was a token increase. They might just pull that back as well but largely things will remain stable with the OPEC Plus. They will keep their powder dry for later when they actually feel the need to cut.”
Oil consumers face a summer of pain as China starts coming back to market
Much of Wall Street shares the bullish take. This week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it expects Brent to peak at $140 a barrel in the coming months. Morgan Stanley said its most bullish scenario of $150 could be moved higher. The record for Brent is $147.50, set in July 2008.
Deliberate OPEC-plus actions keeping oil on the boil
To suggest that the current supplydemand is balanced at the existing production levels is aresponse oblivious to the kind of chaos that we are witnessing around the world. The US is already facing its highest level of inflation in 50 years and the US Federal Reserve has raised rates by 50 basis points.
OPEC+ could reconsider output increase, says Kuwaiti oil minister
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, will meet on Wednesday to discuss the previously agreed increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the next several months.
OPEC+ to resume oil policy talks on Monday after UAE roadblock
The standoff could delay plans to pump more oil through to the end of the year to cool oil prices that have soared to 2-1/2 year highs.
Crude oil steady, traders on sidelines as OPEC+ talks drag on
Brent crude futures rose 33 cents to settle at $76.17 a barrel, after rising 1.6% on Thursday.
OPEC+ reconvenes after wrangling over production rise
Thursday was a busy day of video-conferencing for the alliance's ministers, starting with a meeting between the 13 members of OPEC proper led by Saudi Arabia, followed by a technical meeting (JMMC) and full discussion between the 23 members of OPEC+.
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