Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Midterm Assessment of Progress Toward Implementation of the Decadal Survey (2024)

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2 Accomplishments and Challenges in a Changing Earth Sciences Operating Environment Since the release of the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018), the operating environment for science and applications of space-based observations has changed significantly. Societal awareness of climate change has grown, reflecting recognition of the widespread increase in the frequency, severity, and impact of extreme events. Concurrently, actions to enable adaptation and mitigation have expanded across public, private, and philanthropic spheres at scales ranging from local to global. This chapter presents several examples that demonstrate scientific advances from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions in recent years, highlights increasing demands on NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD), and discusses challenges posed by NASA’s ESD budget and opportunities for collaboration on international and commercial missions. SCIENTIFIC HIGHLIGHTS FROM NASA ESD MISSIONS Because new satellite missions often lead to progress in fields beyond the ones they were designed for, the committee sent out a request for information (RFI) to the broad science community involved with NASA missions to assess its views on progress. The responses were very positive about the new satellites and their capabilities. Finding: The broad scientific community surveyed as part of the current study is enthusiastic about new capabilities provided by Earth observing satellite missions. Among many scientific achievements, the fleet of existing and recently launched satellites and instruments has provided new capabilities to track and help understand methane leaks, sea-level rise, groundwater pumping, deforestation, wildfires, ocean surface topography, ocean primary productivity, and glacial outburst floods; and has enabled significant improvements in a variety of applications such as wildfire management, conservation of water resources, and risk reduction of extreme heat, flooding, and landslides. NASA ESD’s diverse assets include a wide variety of missions and instruments including, but not limited to, optical imagers (e.g., Landsat), radar (e.g., SWOT, SMAP), lidar (e.g., ICESat-2, GEDI), radiometers (e.g., MOPITT, ECOSTRESS), and spectrometers (e.g., MODIS, OCO-2/3, EMIT).1 A full list of missions and instruments launched since the release of the decadal survey is shown in Table 2-1. This chapter highlights several examples that illustrate key advances while noting that these are not intended to represent the full scope of progress since 2017. See Boxes 2-1 to 2-3. 1 ECOSTRESS, Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station; EMIT, Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation; GEDI, Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation; ICESat-2, Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2; MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; MOPITT, Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere; OCO, Orbiting Carbon Observatory; SMAP, Soil Moisture Active Passive; SWOT, Surface Water and Ocean Topography. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 15 

16 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT TABLE 2-1 NASA and NOAA Missions Launched Since Publication of the 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey (NASEM 2018) Launch Date, NASA ESM Program of Record Orbit Instrument Type Observations Applications a GRACE-FO May 2018 GRAVITY Mass change Ground water storage https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov polar Sea level ICESAT-2 September 2018 LIDAR Ice elevation Food security https://icesat-2.gsfc.nasa.gov polar Sea ice thickness Water management Vegetation structure Iceberg hazard S-6-MFb November 2020 RADAR Sea-level change Weather/El Niño forecasting https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions 66 degrees incl. Hurricane intensity /sentinel-6 Landsat-9 September 2021 V/SWIR/TIR Surface biology and Agriculture https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/satell polar geology Land use ites/landsat-9 Climate and carbon Ecosystem, etc. OMPS-L November 2022 UV/Visible Ozone and trace gas Ozone mapping https://ozoneaq.gsfc.nasa.gov/omp polar profiles s SWOTc December 2022 RADAR Sea level Floods—drought https://swot.jpl.nasa.gov polar SWATH Surface water height Reservoirs Marine operations PACE February 2024 UV/V/IR hyperspectral Ocean ecosystem Air quality https://pace.gsfc.nasa.gov polar Aerosols Water resources NASA ESSP and Venture Program of Record ECOSTRESS June 2018 TIR Terrestrial ecosystem Drought https://ecostress.jpl.nasa.gov ISS Land management GEDI December 2018 LIDAR Terrestrial ecosystem Drought https://gedi.umd.edu ISS structure Land management OCO-3 May 2019 Hyperspectral regions in Greenhouse gases, CO2 Crop health https://ocov3.jpl.nasa.gov ISS NIR and SWIR CO2 sources and sinks EMIT July 2022 Vis/SWIR hyperspectral Surface biology and Greenhouse gas mapping https://earth.jpl.nasa.gov/emit ISS geology Snow/water resources TEMPO April 2023 UV/V/SWIR Aerosols North America air quality https://tempo.si.edu GEO Ozone and trace gases TROPICS May 2023 Microwave Planetary boundary layer Terrestrial weather https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/tropi 30 degrees incl. Disasters, floods cs NOAA Program of Record GOES-17,18 March 2018 VIS/IR Land surface, NDVI Weather hazards, lightning https://www.goes-r.gov March 2022 imaging, clouds, GEO humidity NOAA—20,21 November 2017 VIS, IR, Temp/Humidity Weather forecasts, climate https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/our- November 2021 microwave soundings, NDVI satellites/currently-flying/joint- Polar imaging polar-satellite-system COSMIC-2 June 2019 Microwave Humidity soundings Weather forecasts https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/curr various ent-satellite-missions/currently- flying/cosmic-2 a Indicates partnership between NASA and the German Aerospace Center (DLR). b Indicates partnership between Europe, NASA, and NOAA. c Indicates partnership between NASA and Centre National D’Etudes Spatiales (CNES). NOTE: ISS indicates that the instrument was flown in the International Space Station. SOURCES: Data from NASA and NOAA. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 17 BOX 2-1 Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission The Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission (SWOT), launched December 15, 2022, uses advanced radar technology to provide fine spatial scale swath measurements of the height of water surfaces over land (rivers, lakes, and reservoirs) and oceans (including estuaries). The mission is the result of a successful collaboration between engineers and scientists in the United States (NASA) and France (Centre National D’Etudes Spatiales, or CNES). It continues the exemplary model of international collaboration pioneered by the TOPEX, Jason, and Sentinel-6 series of radar altimeter satellites. The SWOT instrument consists of two synthetic aperture radar (SAR) antennas, separated by 10 m, to form an interferometric baseline for measuring topography over two 50-km-wide swaths on either side of the ground track to centimeter accuracy and 100 m spatial resolution (250 m over ocean). For the first time ever, the interferograms are processed onboard the satellite to enable downlink of precise global data. A major technological advance is the observation of swaths rather than tracks, which had been a major constraint in previous nadir altimeter data, limiting utility for inland waters and estuaries. The mission completed the 90-day calibration and validation phase in June 2023 and is now routinely collecting data with global coverage in its science orbit. Examples of Earth phenomenon never measured before include observations of the heights of internal solitary waves (Figure 2-1-1) and detailed maps of water surface elevation data for the Yukon River delta (Figure 4 in Fu et al. 2024) as well as the first global snapshot of the fine-scale bi-dimensional currents, eddies, and fronts in the oceans. SWOT will also support emerging applications, including the ability to monitor variations in the elevation and surface extent of reservoirs globally used for municipal and agricultural water supply, hydropower, and flood control. FIGURE 2-1-1 Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) observations of the surface elevations (in meters) of internal solitary waves in the Molucca Sea in the western tropical Pacific. NOTE: Red areas are land. SOURCE: L.-L. Fu, T. Pavelsky, J.-F. Cretaux, et al., 2024, “The Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission: A Breakthrough in Radar Remote Sensing of the Ocean and Land Surface Water,” Geophysical Research Letters 51(4):e2023GL107652, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107652. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

18 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT BOX 2-2 Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), an Earth Venture Instrument investigation led by the University of Maryland, is the first high spatial resolution near-infrared laser altimeter to precisely map the three-dimensional structures of global tropical and temperate forests and microtopography from the International Space Station (ISS). GEDI has heritage from Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat-2 and demonstrated the measurement approach called for to address the decadal survey Targeted Observable “Terrestrial Ecosystem Structure” that was recommended for consideration as an Earth System Explorer mission. GEDI collects height data for footprints of 25-m diameter size in a 1-km collection grid. The GEDI instrument provides precise height measurements of surface water, ice, vegetation, and land surface to support forest management, carbon cycling, water resource management, wildfire preparedness, and weather prediction applications as well as the global mapping of topography and surface deformation. GEDI data products have supported the global mapping of forest canopy height (Figure 2-2-1), an important variable in the measurement of biomass, timber volume, and the monitoring of forest degradation and restoration. GEDI data also support the mapping of wildland fuels—a critical variable required for wildfire preparedness, response, and recovery. GEDI was deployed in September 2018 for a 2-year mission on the ISS, but its measurements proved to be so valuable and widely used that GEDI was extended until March 2023 when another instrument was placed in its ISS berth until April 2024. GEDI was placed in temporary storage and will return to its original berth in May of 2024 and is expected to operate until the ISS’s end of life. FIGURE 2-2-1 Global forest cover height map for the year 2019 (A) produced through the integration of Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) data (April–October 2019) and multitemporal metrics derived from Landsat Global Land Analysis and Discovery (GLAD) Analysis Ready Data (ARD). Close-up examples illustrate different forest and land management types in the United States (B), the Democratic Republic of Congo (C), and Cambodia (D). SOURCE: Reprinted from Remote Sensing of Environment, 253, P. Potapov, X. Li, A. Hernandez- Serna, et al., “Mapping and Monitoring Global Forest Canopy Height Through Integration of GEDI and Landsat Data,” 112165, (2020), with permission from Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.112165. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 19 BOX 2-3 Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation The Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) is a pioneering imaging spectrometer launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on July 14, 2022. EMIT has demonstrated the instrument’s advanced design for measuring and quantifying a wide range of the diverse physiochemical materials on Earth’s surface. Reflected light from Earth’s surface is measured in 285 spectral bands that cover the spectrum from the visible through the short-wave infrared (VSWIR), at wavelengths from 381 nm to 2493 nm (Figure 2-3-1), giving each contiguous band an average spectral bandwidth of 7.4 nm. This data richness produces independent dimensionality of 50 or more, as reported by Dai et al. (2022), with most dimensionality preserved at the spatial resolution of 30 m ground sample distance planned for Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). This spectral resolution produces spectra of materials that can be identified based on their spectral absorption features, from the dust of desert minerals that are blown into the atmosphere and impact Earth’s radiative budget, to measurements of ecosystem composition, functional traits of vegetation that reveal their state of health, or the presence of liquid water in snow and ice and the water content of vegetation. Observations from EMIT have also proven useful for mapping of greenhouse gases, and especially methane (Figure 2-3-2). EMIT is a prototype for the NASA SBG mission’s imaging spectrometer that is expected to transform our understanding of Earth’s physical and biological environments, given the wide range of scientific disciplines that will use the data, including geosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, atmosphere, and terrestrial and aquatic biosphere. The narrow bands and high spectral dimensionality expected from SBG-VSWIR will be used to identify significantly more plant species, genera, and families based on spectral properties than multispectral instruments, and can characterize alpha and beta diversity based on spectral heterogeneity. FIGURE 2-3-1 This figure from the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) team illustrates how the EMIT spectrometer acquires images with detailed spectral information about the land and coastal marine surfaces, and the atmosphere. It measures a full spectrum for each pixel and the data can be layered like a book from the shortest wavelength to the longest. These data are processed to produce a map, here of the minerals from the desert region of this example. The two images below and associated spectra illustrate retrieval of atmospheric methane (left) and carbon dioxide (right) concentrations. The absorption features seen in the graphs are sharp and clear and illustrate the fidelity of the retrieved absorption features. SOURCE: R.O. Green, N. Mahowald, C. Ung, et al., 2020, “The Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation: An Earth Science Imaging Spectroscopy Mission,” IEEE Aerospace Conference, Big Sky, MT, USA, pp. 1-15, http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/AERO47225.2020.9172731. Reprinted with permission from IEEE. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

20 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT FIGURE 2-3-2 NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology VSWIR methane and carbon dioxide point source measurement capability. The forthcoming Carbon Plume Mapper has adopted this design. SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech, https://sbg.jpl.nasa.gov/doc_links/2023-07-12-sbg-vswir-project-science-applications-update- webinar-1. NASA’s EMIT, an Earth Venture Instrument (EVI) selection, has demonstrated the value of imaging spectroscopy for a wide range of societally important and transformative applications—in for example, mapping, geologic minerals, water quality, water (in liquid, ice, and vapor forms), atmospheric gases (especially methane), and for monitoring physiologically important traits in vegetation, vegetation mapping, and biodiversity (Box 2-3). The use of Sentinel-1 InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) has transformed our ability to study solid Earth geohazards. InSAR combined with GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) is allowing examination of the full earthquake, volcano, and landslide cycles for the first time. The improved accuracy and cadence of the upcoming NISAR mission will enable another major advance in our understanding of deformation processes. The launch of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission in 2002 and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) in 2018 have ushered in a new paradigm for studying changes in land water resources and glaciers and ice-sheet mass balance across the planet. Advances in near-real-time GNSS and the long time series of GRACE-FO observations have enabled a deeper understanding of terrestrial water storage and associated deformation. It is essential to quantify and track the rapid and accelerating decline in ice mass in Greenland, Antarctica, and the world’s glaciers and ice caps, because it affects the availability of local water resources for large populations as well as regional to global sea-level PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 21 rise and impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. The NASA ICESat-2 mission has extended the ability to study the mass balance of ice sheets to multidecadal timescales, bridging a gap since the end of ICESat in 2010. ICESat-2 has allowed for depth measurements in areas where no suitable data existed before and expanded capabilities for monitoring vegetation structure in poorly observed areas. It is also able to retrieve snow depth over land, ice sheet, and sea ice through new retrieval methods. The ICESat series has continued to document the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, and now the even more rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice, which will both play a major role in weather and climate changes in decades to come. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument launched in March 2023 is now providing the first geostationary satellite observations of air quality over North America. Together with the Gravity and Extreme Magnetism Small Explorer (GEMS) instrument over East Asia and the Sentinel-4 satellite over Europe, it contributes to a new international geostationary constellation that is expected to revolutionize our ability to track the transport of air pollutants and quantify sources and chemistry from space. Another significant success is the 2022 launch of the SWOT mission for oceanography and hydrology (Box 2-1). SWOT’s early science results suggest it will enable major scientific advancements in years to come in physical oceanography, nutrient cycling, and evolution of land water masses in response to climate change and human disturbances. NASA has also achieved remarkable longevity in its older satellite instruments. MODIS and MOPITT continue to provide fire observations and track the global motions of fire plumes. The capability for Landsat to retrieve large methane and NOx point sources has recently been demonstrated, leading to the potential for retrospective analysis of the multi-decadal record of Landsat observations for long-term pollution trends. In addition to advances from NASA missions, observations made coherently and consistently, and with fine temporal and spatial sampling, such as those in the European Union (EU) Copernicus program, are potentially revolutionary in supporting the need for long-term observations, particularly for climate- driven applications that require consistency and reliability over time. INCREASED DEMAND FOR EARTH OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE Widespread Impact of Climate Change Global temperatures have continued to rise as documented by complementary analyses by NASA (GISTEMP Team 2024), NOAA (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information 2024a), and Copernicus (Figure 2-1). The warmest year recorded since modern record keeping began was 2023, about 1.4°C warmer than the mean temperature between 1850 and 1900. The past decade is the warmest on record. There is no doubt that the rise in temperatures is driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (IPCC 2023). On local scales, increases in the frequency of heatwaves regularly threaten human health for millions (e.g., USGCRP 2023), while prolonged marine heatwaves threaten ecosystems and food security. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

22 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT FIGURE 2-1 Global temperature analysis for 2023 estimated by NASA highlights changes relative to a 1951–1980 baseline period. SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA Science Visualization Studio, Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2023, https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5207. Acceleration in the rate of warming has also raised increasing concern about contributions of feedback mechanisms that amplify warming. Loss of sea ice contributes to accelerated warming by lowering the planet’s albedo, which impacts the amount of heat absorbed by oceans. Recent years have seen both new extremes in the rate of change in the cryosphere and improvements in ability to observe them with the launch of ICESat-2 and GRACE-FO in 2018. In the Arctic, where temperatures are rising two to three times faster than the global average, declines in sea ice extent and sea ice thickness noted through the 2010s are accompanied by accelerating ice loss from Greenland (e.g., Greene et al. 2024; Otosaka et al. 2023) and increased discharge of freshwater in the North Atlantic that may disrupt global ocean circulation patterns. Loss of ice from Antarctica has tripled since 2012 (Shepherd et al. 2018), contributing to rapid sea-level rise and triggering alarm that substantial future losses from western Antarctica may be unavoidable, which would displace hundreds of millions of people and will require enormous adaptation costs to protect shorelines. Decreases in the world’s glaciers and snowpack impact the sustained availability of fresh water for billions worldwide. While the Arctic shows the highest warming trend, the tropical land shows the highest warming trend normalized by internal variability, indicating the more frequent occurrence of extreme hot years there (Zeng et al. 2021). Extreme glacier melt and record ocean heat levelswhich cause water to expandcontributed to an average rise in sea levels of 4.62 mm a year between 2013–2022, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported in April 2023 (WMO 2023) in a major report detailing the havoc of climate change. That is about double the pace of the first decade on record, 1993–2002, leading to a total increase of more than 10 cm since the early 1990s. Awareness of the importance of observing methane from space, the second most important greenhouse gas emitted from human activities, has also increased substantially since 2017. Global surface measurements from NOAA (see Figure 2-2) indicated record growth rates in 2020 and 2021 owing to increases in emissions (e.g., Feng et al. 2023). The attribution of these increases to changes in human activities, including oil and natural gas production and agriculture, versus temperature sensitive natural systems like wetlands, remains an area of active scientific debate. In addition, the impact of methane released as carbon-rich permafrost soils warm in Arctic and boreal regions remains highly uncertain and poorly constrained by current observations. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 23 FIGURE 2-2 NOAA in situ observations of methane show acceleration of atmospheric growth rate in recent years owing to increases in emissions. SOURCE: Image provided by NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Trends in Atmospheric Methane, https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4. Many communities worldwide experience the acute impacts of climate change through increases in extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts, heat waves, flash floods, violent storms, and devastating wildfires, which have seen demonstrable increases in frequency since 2017. NOAA tracks the number of billion-dollar disasters per year with 2023 recording the greatest number (28) and the past 5 years accounting for 23 percent of disaster costs since 1980 (see Figures 2-3and 2-4) (NOAA 2024b; Smith 2024). The severity and duration of wildfires have increased globally and are of increasing concern in Canada and Siberia, which have large areas of susceptible forests and low road and access networks, combined with small, isolated populations. Semi-arid regions, including the western United States, northern Mexico, the Mediterranean region of Europe, and Australia, have all experienced devastating wildfires in the past few years. NASA has a long history of monitoring the global distribution of wildfires and providing burned area maps from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) and globally with Landsat-8 and -9. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns exacerbate drought conditions, leading to increased fire risk. When combined with land management practices that have allowed buildup of fuels in many areas, fires are increasingly dangerous and impactful to human populations. Fires in steep landscapes can also reduce root strength, accelerate release of sediment downslope, and cause limited water infiltration into soils, which in a rainstorm can lead to destructive debris flows. The year 2020 was California’s largest wildfire year with more than 4.3 million acres burned and 11,000 structures destroyed (Safford et al. 2022). More recently, massive wildfires in Canada in 2023 also demonstrated the devastating, far-reaching impact of smoke, triggering warnings across Midwest and East Coast U.S. cities and across the Atlantic to western Europe, exposing millions to dangerous air quality. Drought-driven 2023 wildfires in Maui were the deadliest such event in the United States in more than a century and the worst natural disaster in Hawaii state history. In addition to devastating impacts on communities and human health, wildfires contribute to climate change by reducing the capacity of land ecosystems to sequester carbon dioxide in vegetation, lower shortwave albedo, and reduce soil moisture by increasing overland flows. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

24 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT FIGURE 2-3 NOAA records of billion-dollar weather-related disasters in the United States show an increase in recent years with a record-breaking disaster season in 2023. SOURCE: Courtesy of NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters,” https://www.climate.gov/news- features/blogs/beyond-data/2023-historic-year-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters. FIGURE 2-4 (a) Landsat daylight imagery of the 2018 Camp Fire near Sacramento, the most devastating wildfire in California and 2018’s costliest disaster, including 85 deaths, 18,804 structures lost, costing $16.65 billion, including fire response. SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory, “Camp Fire Rages in California,” https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144225/camp-fire-rages-in-california. (b) This OLI nighttime image from Landsat 8 of the Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii, fire was captured August 8, 2023, at 22:25 local time and shows emitted radiance from the shortwave infrared band 6 in yellow overlayed on a natural-color (nighttime) mosaic for geographic detail. The fires started under strong winds and dry conditions between August 7–9, 2023. The fire caused at least 97 deaths, 2,200 structures were lost, and an estimated cost of $5.5 billion (U.S. FEMA, Fire Administration). SOURCE: NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151688/devastation-in-maui. NASA Earth Observatory, “Devastation in Maui.” The United States has committed to dramatically reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 with a goal of reaching net zero emissions in 2050.2 In support of this strategy, the United States has invested billions in supporting adoption of climate smart agricultural practices, managing forestry to reduce wildfire risks, and converting to cleaner energy alternatives. A national strategy on greenhouse gas monitoring has been developed, including establishment of a U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center, to improve ability to document progress toward these ambitious goals.3 Because methane is extremely potent at 2 Department of State and Executive Office of the President (2021). 3 Greenhouse Gas Monitoring and Measurement Interagency Working Group (2023). PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 25 trapping heat, mitigation of methane emissions has emerged as a policy priority to limit near-term climate change. Internationally, 155 countries have adopted the Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030 in an effort to limit near-term warming.4 The increasing demand for policy-relevant greenhouse gas data and associated implications for NASA are discussed in Box 2-4. Given the pressing near-term challenges presented by climate change, the need for data and scientific information to assist decision-making has increased significantly since the decadal survey. Actionable data often requires a consistent data record. Satellite records are critical in efforts to monitor the impacts of climate change on local communities, understand climate feedbacks to improve prediction, and document the effectiveness of emission reductions at home and abroad. Evolution of NASA’s Role and Missions NASA has responded to these growing needs by reorganizing programmatic structures to elevate the role of Earth Action within the agency, supporting applied science research and applications projects that advance uses of Earth science information that inform societal decisions and resulting actions. Pilot Earth Action initiatives include NASA’s role in coordinating the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center for the federal government, the airborne FireSense Program, which seeks to deliver NASA science and technology innovations in support of wildland fire management, and NASA’s Disaster Program, which promotes the use of Earth observing data to improve disaster management around the world. These activities accompany substantial changes in NASA’s Earth Science Data Systems program, which is moving to transition data access to cloud-based platforms to support federal open science initiatives, ensuring free and transparent access to data and methods used for research and applications. NASA has also invested in the Earth Information Center, prioritizing new visualizations of the Earth system and ways to communicate scientific data to the public. Underlying these programmatic and technical changes are the degree to which the United States and world have come to rely on continuity of NASA, NOAA, and USGS Earth observing assets for both advancing scientific understanding of our changing planet and enabling societal applications that help us thrive upon it. These civil Earth observation programs urgently require both investment and attention because many missions that are already operating well beyond their expected mission lifetime are known to be reaching their end of usable life, even as progress on missions to replace and advance upon their core capabilities have yet to begin development. Earth observation programs also provide a critical pathway to engagement in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields and development of a skilled workforce needed to address emerging environmental challenges. Finding: Given the observed rapid pace of climate and environmental changes, the need for actionable information based on Earth observations is increasing rapidly, with a goal of informing society, assisting in the process of decision-making, and protecting society and human lives. A Flat Budget Despite the urgency of climate change, the growing list of observations needed to address adaptation and mitigation efforts, and federal investments in a variety of climate-related policies, NASA’s Earth Science budget has remained essentially flat in recent years when inflation is considered (see Figure 2-5). The lack of sufficient top-line budget has made it difficult for NASA to meet the increasing demands for its data and insights gained from research and applications. While the Inflation Reduction Act included more than $3 billion of investment in NOAA’s efforts, it did not include new funding for satellite missions at NOAA/NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) nor NASA’s ESD, despite the critical importance of satellite observations for environmental prediction. 4 See https://www.globalmethanepledge.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

26 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT BOX 2-4 Increasing Demands for Policy Relevant Greenhouse Gas Data The need for Earth observations to support greenhouse gas monitoring and climate action is rapidly evolving and highlights several challenges facing NASA programs. NASA’s current Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) series includes polar orbiting OCO-2 and International Space Station (ISS) instrument OCO-3, both of which measure near-infrared spectra in day-lit, clear sky conditions to infer column-averaged carbon dioxide concentrations. Although pioneering, OCO-2 is fundamentally a sampling mission with coverage limited to narrow 10 km swaths and a fairly coarse footprint (3.5 km2). OCO-2 is also well beyond its original 2-year design lifetime. The GeoCarb mission, selected during its Earth Venture Mission solicitation in 2016, would have been a successor to the science and applications developed from OCO data, expanding the frequency of carbon dioxide observations over the Americas and adding a capability to measure methane. In 2022, NASA canceled the GeoCarb mission citing substantial cost and schedule overruns, as documented in Lessons Learned in the Implementation of NASA’s Earth Venture Class (NASEM 2022b) and a 2023 NASA Office of the Inspector General report (NASA OIG 2023). While NASA’s investments in greenhouse gas remote sensing have stalled, the rest of the world’s space agencies and private industry have continued to invest (CEOS 2018). The European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) CO2M mission, funded by the European Union as a key part of their greenhouse gas monitoring strategy, features a multi-satellite constellation with wide-area mapping capabilities to dramatically increase daily coverage relative to current generation satellites like OCO-2. CO2M is complemented by Germany’s CO2Image, which will provide high resolution views (~50 m footprint) of urban- and facility-level emissions sources. Private and philanthropic sector efforts to monitor methane emissions from point sources are increasingly providing policy relevant data sets at facility scales, joining public assets like NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT). In March 2024, this potential was expanded with the successful launch of the Environmental Defense Fund’s MethaneSat. Currently, no other U.S. agency plans to operate any dedicated greenhouse gas monitoring satellites that can be used for monitoring and verification of national emissions. Given the policy importance and economic and national security benefit, NASA is likely to remain the lead agency in this area of remote sensing and to deal with increasing pressures to sustain and expand this capability over time. NASA announced that its first Earth System Explorer solicitation would choose at least one greenhouse gas mission concept for further study for a launch opportunity around 2030. While this provides a means to potentially address greenhouse gas observing needs in the 2030 timeframe, it would use the Earth System Explorer funding line to provide a measurement that had been considered part of the stipulated program of record, reducing the odds of other decadal survey priority observables being selected and NASA’s flexibility in innovating to address emerging environmental challenges. FIGURE 2-5 Actual NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) budget since fiscal year (FY) 2015 compared to budget adjusted to reflect inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics. SOURCE: Data from NASA ESD. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 27 Finding: NASA ESD has had an essentially flat budget since 2015, despite the fact that mission costs are increasing. In addition to a lack of increase in its overall budget, NASA, like many other organizations, faced additional challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, NASA imposed mandatory telework at NASA centers for nonessential federal and contractor employees, consistent with guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Work at many off-site contractors, as well as travel, was also severely limited. For large missions, some of this cost was covered by budget contingencies. However, there were substantial COVID-19-related costs that could not simply be absorbed. Cost increases associated with COVID-19 for large missions have previously been documented by NASA’s Office of Inspector General (NASA OIG 2021). During and following the pandemic, severe disruptions of global supply chains resulted from global travel and workplace restrictions. This affected the ability of many NASA missions to procure goods in a timely manner, contributing further to delays and causing additional cost overruns. The period from 2021–2023 also saw significant worldwide inflation, reducing the real-world purchasing power of NASA mission budgets, which are planned years in advance. Additional funding is needed to support both new and long-term Earth observations from space to realize the decadal survey’s vision of thriving on our changing planet. Finding: NASA ESD’s current funding level is inconsistent with societal needs and the urgency associated with widespread environmental changes and escalating cost of adaptation and mitigation efforts. It is evident that NASA ESD is being stretched as it attempts to address multiple competing priorities. In the context of a flat budget, priorities for science and technology innovation directly compete with needs to continue observations of Earth’s changing climate which resulted from such innovation. Finding: At current levels of funding, NASA cannot be expected to deliver on the needs for both providing long-term measurement continuity and new improved observations. ` In addition, while the decadal survey outlined steps to be taken if budgets for specific recommended program elements grew beyond their allocated targets, it could not account for new requirements levied upon the agencies by stakeholders other than the science and applications community during the decade. Recommendation: NASA should clearly articulate the substantial societal value and urgency of implementing the full set of the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018) priorities as well as its need for appropriate resources to do so. It is imperative that NASA’s Earth Science Division develop the framework to quickly assess and communicate what must be sacrificed when requirements imposed by its other stakeholders supplant the science and applications community’s priorities as expressed in the decadal survey. INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION NASA has made regular practice of engaging with international partners to share mission costs and expand science opportunities beyond what would have been possible by working independently. This pattern of strong international engagement has continued with designated program element missions and studies, which all have international relationships in place or under consideration. For example, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG)-Thermal Infrared (TIR) is a partnership with the Italian space agency, Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI). The Atmospheric Observing System study team has established strong working relationships with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, the Centre National PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

28 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT D’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the Canadian Space Agency, and ASI to explore potential partnership opportunities. The Mass Change mission builds on established relationships with DLR and GFZ, and the SDC study team is working closely with the European Space Agency. NISAR (part of the Program of Record and scheduled for launch in 2024) is a close collaboration with India. Finding: NASA has effectively leveraged collaboration with international agencies for the greater benefit of the scientific community and society at large. FULL EXPLOITATION OF OTHER OPPORTUNITIES: INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS AND PARTNERS Given NASA’s budget challenges, as outlined in this and subsequent chapters, combined with growing investments in international programs like Copernicus5 and the private sector, it is clear that NASA will need to find ways to fully leverage data from the full suite of Earth observations, not only its own fleet of instruments and satellites.6 This should be balanced by the real need for NASA, NOAA, and USGS to retain a leadership role in Earth observations and to maintain critical scientific and technical expertise that are necessary for national security and to support U.S. decision makers. While international partnerships are often established to share costs for large missions, opportunities to support science involvement in international missions are limited. For example, NASA’s Earth Science U.S. Participating Investigator is a particularly valuable program that allows U.S. scientists to propose to become a co-investigator on a foreign mission, contributing to instrument design, modeling, calibration, or development of data analysis techniques. Since the 2018 proposal cycle, this program has solicited proposals only three times (every other calendar year), with a total annual budget of $750,000 available for 5–6 new 5-year awards. In comparison, most years include multiple opportunities to propose to science teams for NASA missions. Although many investigators find ways to collaborate internationally, including leveraging NASA science team funds and relationships, NASA needs to do more to ensure that U.S.-based investigators can more meaningfully engage with international missions going forward should its portfolio of in-house missions decrease. The private sector is rapidly ramping up diverse capabilities for Earth observation from space. Through the Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) program, NASA has been able to acquire a limited amount of data from a number of commercial providers, including Planet, Maxar, Airbus, Spire Global, and GHGSat, and make these data available to Earth science investigators for evaluation. Commercial data sets often target applications of great interest to the Earth science community, but they need to be properly vetted and this is done through the CSDA program.7 Opportunities to support commercial data acquisitions, where appropriate, should be enhanced given the dramatic increase in commercial ventures collecting satellite observations of Earth. This work should be grounded in science- based evaluation of data quality, value, access, cost, and scalability. The effort should be coordinated across agencies to ensure cost savings and broad accessibility of the data. 5 The European Copernicus program is funded by the European Union to ensure continuity of services reliant upon Earth observations. The program leverages the European Space Agency’s capabilities to execute missions, and the European Meteorological Satellite Agency’s (EUMETSAT’s) ability to effectively distribute data, however, has entirely separate funding and objectives. 6 For example, NASA asked the National Academies’ Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space for a short study that would assess the potential use of a large, multi-user, robot-tended, uncrewed commercial space platform as a potential host for instruments capable of providing some of the observations recommended by the 2017 decadal survey. The study identified a few areas where such a large platform could contribute although many challenges related to a non-optimal orbit configuration and launch timing were identified (NASEM 2023). 7 Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition data set evaluations can be found at https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/esds/csda/evaluations. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 29 FIGURE 2-6 A cluster of cavum clouds over the Gulf of Mexico off of Florida’s west coast on January 30, 2024. It was captured by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Terra was launched in December 1999. SOURCE: NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152486/making-sense-of-holes-in-the-clouds. Recommendation: NASA should expand funding opportunities for U.S. investigators to participate in and exploit data from international, interagency, and commercial endeavors. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION