Economics Publications

The Supervision Risk and Analysis department is continually developing and contributing to the economics body of knowledge. For more information into a wide range of thought-provoking articles, published research, and working papers created by OCC's economists, explore the links below:

On Point - Focused Analyses of Current Economic and Banking Issues
Economic Snapshots – Latest National Economic Trends
OCC Working Papers – Banking Performance and Regulation
OCC Working Papers – New Frontiers in Bank Risk Management
Moments in History - Economic Insights from the History of the Federal Banking System
Other Research Papers
Archived OCC Economics Working Papers

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On Point - Focused Analyses of Current Economic and Banking Issues

Publication Date	Title	Version
04/25/2024	Do Past Cycles Predict the Future of Home Prices?	April 2024
12/08/2022	Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Likely to Persist	December 2022
11/30/2022	Global Banking's Improved Capital Levels May Soon be Tested	November 2022
08/19/2022	Could Higher Prices Boost U.S. Grain Farm Income?	August 2022
08/17/2022	Rising Payments May Pressure Consumer Debt Burden and Delinquencies	August 2022
06/15/2022	Office Loans in Urban Areas Hold Most Credit Risk	June 2022
06/02/2022	Uncertain Business Travel Outlook Increases Credit Risk of Urban Hotel Loans	June 2022
05/19/2022	Uncertain Future of Business Travel a Risk for Higher-End Lodging	May 2022
04/07/2022	Could Supply Chain Overcorrection Result in Excess Inventories?	April 2022
03/24/2022	Supply Chain Stress Pressures Small Firm Profitability	March 2022
03/07/2022	Policy Unwind Adds Risk of Sharply Higher Long-Term Bond Yields	March 2022
02/10/2022	Is a Wage-Price Spiral Emerging?	February 2022
01/27/2022	Banks' Rising Labor Costs Partly Reflect Industry-Specific Factors	January 2022
01/25/2022	The Pandemic-Fueled Preference for Single-Family Homes May Endure	January 2022
01/07/2022	Deposit Growth Likely Slowing but Abundance of Low-Cost Funding Could Endure Through 2022	January 2022
12/03/2021	Home Buyers Remain in Large Metropolitan Statistical Areas Despite COVID-19	December 2021
11/10/2021	Industries Recovering Unevenly From the Pandemic	November 2021
10/29/2021	Used Vehicle Prices Likely to Stay Elevated Through Next Year	October 2021
10/18/2021	Bank Performance Under a High Inflation Scenario	October 2021
09/22/2021	Asian Corporate Bond Spreads May Not Reflect Underlying Risks	September 2021
07/20/2021	Sustaining Bank Profitability a Near-Term Challenge	July 2021
06/01/2021	High Business Debt Does Not Represent a "Bubble"	June 2021
05/18/2021	Widespread Housing Foreclosures Unlikely	May 2021
04/29/2021	Credit Card Delinquencies Decline and Defaults Remain Resistant to the Pandemic	April 2021
04/06/2021	PPP Lending Provides Boost to Metro Area Small Banks and Businesses	April 2021
02/23/2021	2021 Economic Forecast Uncertainty Amplified by Global Pandemic	February 2021
02/04/2021	Do Negative Interest Rate Policies Actually Work? (And at What Cost?)	February 2021
01/22/2021	Home Prices Escape Recession Unscathed	January 2021
01/06/2021	Inflation, Further Surge in Bank Assets Unlikely	January 2021
12/07/2020	Pandemic Provisioning Reflects Economic Stress	December 2020
12/07/2020	The Geography of Pandemic Stress and PPP Lending	December 2020

Economic Snapshots – Latest National Economic Trends

Publication Date	Title	Version
08/22/2024	U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economy beat expectations in 2Q, but growth is likely to slow	August 2024
05/28/2024	U.S. Economic Snapshot - First quarter GDP growth is slowest since 2Q:2022	May 2024
02/22/2024	U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economic growth surprised to the upside in 2023	February 2024
11/27/2023	U.S. Economic Snapshot - The economy surged in 3Q but is expected to slow into next year	November 2023
09/22/2023	U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economic growth remains solid despite higher interest rates	September 2023
05/23/2023	U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth continues to slow under weight of higher interest rates	May 2023
02/28/2023	U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth is moderating, but the job market remains tight	February 2023
11/18/2022	U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP rebounded in 3Q:2022 but recession risk remains elevated	November 2022
08/29/2022	U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP fell for the second straight quarter; recession risk rising	August 2022
05/29/2022	U.S. Economic Snapshot - Ukraine War and High Inflation Weigh on U.S. Economy	May 2022
02/28/2022	U.S. Economic Snapshot - Real GDP forecast is for solid but slower growth in 2022	February 2022
11/29/2021	U.S. Economic Snapshot - COVID-related slowdown in 3Q expected to be temporary	November 2021
09/14/2021	U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth strongest since 1984 but expected to moderate	August 2021
06/25/2021	U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth forecast to be fastest since 1984	June 2021

OCC Working Papers - Banking Performance and Regulation

Publication Date	Title	Version
01/06/2021	CAMELS Ratings and Their Information Content (WP-2021-01)	January 2021
12/02/2020	Chartering the FinTech Future (WP-2020-06)	December 2020
08/02/2020	Hurricanes and Residential Mortgage Loan Performance (WP-2020-04)	August 2020
06/30/2020	A Puzzle in the Relation Between Risk and Pricing of Long-Term Auto Loans (WP-2020-03)	June 2020
02/06/2020	Profits, Credit Spreads, and Fragility of Banks (WP-2020-01)	February 2020

OCC Working Papers - New Frontiers in Bank Risk Management

Publication Date	Title	Version
02/04/2022	Interbank Debt Contagion and Financial Network Solvency (WP-2022-01)	February 2022
08/25/2021	The Impact of the State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction Cap on U.S. Home Prices (WP-2021-02)	August 2021
10/21/2020	Estimating Conditional Mortgage Delinquency Transition Matrices (WP-2020-05)	October 2020
05/11/2020	Modeling Loss Given Default Regressions (WP-2020-02)	May 2020

Moments in History - Economic Insights from the History of the Federal Banking System

Publication Date	Title	Version
04/26/2024	The History of National Bank Real Estate Lending: Part II (1981-2023)	April 2024
06/20/2023	The History of National Bank Real Estate Lending: Part I (1863-1980)	June 2023
10/25/2022	The History of Supervisory Expectations for Capital Adequacy: Part II (1984–2021)	October 2022
06/13/2022	The History of Supervisory Expectations for Capital Adequacy: Part I (1863-1983)	June 2022
11/23/2021	Shareholder Double Liability and Depositor Losses in Failed National Banks: 1865–1935	November 2021
06/11/2021	The Value of Examiner Asset Classifications: Protecting Uninsured Depositors and Creditors Since 1863	June 2021
12/07/2020	The Evolution of Bank Chartering	December 2020
12/03/2020	Value Creation From the National Bank Charter: Historical Reflections on the Complementarity of Examinations and Market Discipline	December 2020

Archived OCC Economics Working Papers

Access a collection of archived OCC Working Papers from 1993-2016