Latest December 2023 Forecast For VA Includes Snow This Week

VIRGINIA — Sharply falling temperatures last week across Virginia marked the arrival of meteorological winter on Dec. 1, but the state then returned to mild conditions. So when can we expect sleet, snow and freezing rain? It could come this week.

It's a balmy start to the holiday season, with highs in the 50s on Monday and upper 40s on Tuesday in Northern Virginia before rain mixes with snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s this week, with daily highs returning to the upper 50s to low 60s by the weekend.

On Tuesday night, scattered rain showers are likely after 8 p.m., mixing with snow after 11 p.m., the NWS said. Scattered rain and snow showers are predicted before 11 a.m. Wednesday, with a high near 44. The chance of precipitation is 30% both days.

An El Niño climate pattern influencing temperature should mean winter begins with average temperatures in Maryland before the odds of cooler temps and increased precipitation, a new forecast says.

The Weather Channel said in an updated outlook released Thursday that December could bring much warmer than average conditions across the central and western United States, according to an updated outlook released Thursday. Slightly cooler than average conditions are expected along the East Coast into Florida this month.

Maryland seems on track to have average precipitation fall in December, while parts of the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas are most likely to have wetter-than-average conditions. The Southeast typically has wetter-than-average winters during El Niño.

Related: El Niño Strengthening: How That Could Affect Snowfall In Northern VA

The Climate Prediction Center says with 100 percent certainty the strengthening El Niño weather pattern will last through early winter, and with 90 percent certainty that it will last until spring.

The agency, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, expects the El Niño pattern to bring more precipitation leaning above average in much of Northern Virginia this winter. A small portion of Virginia's western area has equal chances of wetter and drier conditions this winter.

In most El Niño winters, Northern Virginia has about 2 or 4 more inches than the average snowfall from January to March, according to the Climate Prediction Center. In moderate to strong El Niño winters, we normally see closer to 6 or 8 more inches of snowfall above the average during that period.

A NOAA climate blog said in November, "The D.C. area historically sees above-average snowfall during El Niño winters."

The blog says past strong El Niño winters have brought 4 to 10 inches more in snowfall to the DC-Virginia reason. But anything can happen.

This year’s El Niño, which began developing in June, is the first in four years. Not all El Niños are the same, and that adds uncertainty to winter forecasts, according to The Weather Channel.

Right now, it looks like we can expect above average temperatures with equal chances of snow or rain in Virginia, according to the private weather company’s outlook. Snowfall totals are expected to be slightly above average for the state.

In general, the forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern U.S. from the Great Lakes to western Canada to Alaska; drier-than-normal conditions in the Midwest and Ohio Valley; wetter conditions in the Southwest; and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the South and Southeast.