Released August 19, 2024 17:15 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5038

Charles E. Heywood, Suzanne S. Paschke, M. Alisa Mast, Kenneth R Watts

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River affects agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users and is an important concern in the Western United States. In the Paradox Valley of southwestern Colorado, natural discharge of sodium-chloride brine to the Dolores River from the underlying core of a salt-valley anticline accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Colorado River. Formation of the Paradox Valley began during the Miocene, and subsequent erosion exposed the Pennsylvania Paradox Formation in the core of the anticline where a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and sodium-chloride saturated brine developed at the top of the exposed salt diapir. The discharge of brine to the Dolores River is affected by these dissolution features, along with seasonal hydrologic conditions and density-dependent flow between older dense brine and the younger fresh groundwater in the overlying alluvial aquifer. To reduce TDS concentrations in the Dolores River through the Paradox Valley, the Bureau of Reclamation has pumped brine from a series of shallow wells adjacent to the river since July 1996. The pumped brine is collected and piped to a deep disposal well where it is injected into the Mississippian Leadville Limestone at a depth of about 4,570-meters below land surface. The pumping and injection operation is collectively known as the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), and by 2015, the PVU had substantially reduced TDS concentrations in the Dolores River by about 70 percent. Since 2019, injection-pressure limits and related seismic activity have constrained deep-well injection and thus brine pumping at the PVU.

In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a MODFLOW-6 three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow and TDS transport model of the Paradox Valley to evaluate the effects of PVU pumping operations on brine discharge to the Dolores River and to guide additional research. The finite-difference model grid consists of 76 rows and 48 columns oriented from northwest to southeast in alignment with valley topography and groundwater-flow directions in the near-surface freshwater alluvial aquifer. A 7-layer hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing datasets to represent the alluvial aquifer, cap rock, collapse breccia, and groundwater flow and TDS transport from the underlying Paradox Formation salt to the Dolores River. The model represents a 33-year transient calibration period from 1987 through 2020 that includes pre-PVU conditions from 1987 through June 1996 and post-PVU conditions from July 1996 through 2020. A 1,000-year simulation of groundwater flow and coupled TDS transport computed the initial conditions for the subsequent 33-year transient simulation. Observations of precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, agricultural land use, and PVU brine pumping rates were used to specify appropriate boundary conditions to the model representing time-varying recharge, tributary streamflow, groundwater underflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and PVU pumping. Values for average monthly streamflow and TDS concentration at the upstream streamgage, the Dolores River at Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09169500), were specified as model input where the Dolores River enters Paradox Valley. Observed pumping from the PVU, water levels and TDS concentrations in groundwater, and streamflow and estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage, the Dolores River near Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09171100), were calibration targets that constrained the manual calibration of model parameters representing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, storage, streambed conductance, recharge, and (ET).

Two primary model-calibration targets were the match between observed and simulated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and the match between estimated and simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River. The simulated TDS mass withdrawn by pumping wells is calculated by the model as the product of the assigned pumping rate and simulated groundwater TDS concentrations. Because actual pumping rates were assigned as simulated values, the total simulated PVU pumping for the 33-year calibration is within 0.5 percent of the observed values. However, simulated concentrations and thus mass flux of TDS withdrawn by the PVU pumping wells were consistently about 26 percent less than observed values for all the simulated time periods (33-year simulation, pre-PVU, and post-PVU). The representation of brine inflow was explored through additional modeling to evaluate the effect of the simulated brine source on groundwater TDS concentrations. Results indicated that a saturated-salt constant-flux brine source best replicated the magnitude and transient pattern observed for TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells.

The simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River is compared to estimates based on observed streamflow and specific conductance (SC) data for the downstream streamgage. The calibrated model provided a close fit of simulated to measured streamflow at the downstream streamgage, and the calibrated model fit to estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage was reasonable. The greatest differences between simulated and estimated values occurred during drought periods from June 2000 to March 2003, May 2012 to June 2013, and October 2013 to October 2014, when simulated TDS concentrations in the river were greater than estimated concentrations. In general, simulated TDS mass flux to the river for the pre-PVU period is in good agreement with estimated values (2-percent difference), but the model overestimated TDS mass flux to the river by about 41 percent during the post-PVU period. The model uncertainty with respect to TDS mass flux to the river indicates other processes or model parameters not well represented by the model are affecting the system, especially during drought. During model calibration, the most sensitive parameters were identified as vertical hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer, conductance of the Dolores River streambed, ET extinction depth and rate, and recharge rate.

Five 5-year scenarios of conditions for 2021–25 were simulated to assist evaluation of alternative strategies to manage the discharge of brine into the Dolores River. The first scenario simulates no PVU pumping and serves as a base case for comparison to the other scenarios. Two scenarios simulate the effects of varying withdrawal timing at an annual rate about one-third less than during 2010 through 2018. During high-flow spring snowmelt runoff periods when brine discharge is naturally minimized, PVU pumping does not substantially affect salinity in the Dolores River, and comparison of these two scenarios indicates that scheduling brine withdrawals during times of low river stage is nearly as effective at reducing TDS mass flux to the river as pumping brine year-round. Cessation of pumping during periods of high river stage may be advantageous for system maintenance, brine injection, and seismic-risk reduction. The fourth scenario tested the effect of reducing irrigation-return flow on brine discharge and predicted a slight reduction of TDS mass flux to the Dolores River, but not as great a reduction as that of using the PVU to remove brine. The fifth scenario simulated 5 years of drought conditions without PVU pumping and indicates brine discharge during drought about 15 percent greater than during average hydrologic conditions. Results from scenario 5 are consistent with the calibrated model results and indicate that aquifer properties and ET processes and parameters may be affecting simulation results during drought.

The Paradox Valley groundwater model provides a reasonable overall match to observed conditions in the Dolores River. The model is useful for evaluating relative differences between brine management scenarios to inform PVU operational decisions and to identify gaps in data and process understanding. Representation of the brine source, hydraulic-conductivity parameters, and recharge and ET processes were identified as potential areas for additional field and modeling research. Additional research in the Paradox Valley might include field-data collection that provides additional information on the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels, groundwater TDS concentrations, stream characteristics, and aquifer properties. Additional modeling efforts could benefit from applying advanced tools for model development, calibration, and visualization including parameter-estimation and sensitivity analysis. Statistical evaluation of known model uncertainties such as hydraulic conductivity, streambed conductance, representations of the brine source, recharge, and ET could improve the match between simulated and estimated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and to the Dolores River further informing model predictions and system understanding for the Paradox Valley.

Released August 19, 2024 17:15 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5094

Suzanne S. Paschke, M. Alisa Mast, Philip M. Gardner, Connor P. Newman, Kenneth R. Watts

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River is a major concern in the southwestern United States where the river provides water to about 40 million people for municipal and industrial use and is used to irrigate about 5.5 million acres of land. Much of the salinity in the Colorado River Basin is derived from natural interactions of surface water and groundwater with various geologic materials (rocks, soils, and alluvial deposits). The Dolores River in southwest Colorado is a major tributary of the Colorado River that historically accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Upper Colorado River Basin with the Paradox Valley being the primary source of salinity to the Dolores River. The Paradox Valley, one of several salt-anticline valleys in the region, is a fault-bounded topographic basin aligned with and exposing an underlying salt-anticline core. Salt deposits in the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation of the Hermosa Group form an elongated salt diapir oriented northwest to southeast that is up to 12,000 feet (ft) thick beneath the present valley floor. Surface erosion, groundwater circulation, and weathering during Tertiary and Quaternary valley formation contributed to development of a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and brine at the top of the exposed salt diapir. Today (2023), brine occurring in the brecciated cap rock and underlying salt deposits is in hydraulic connection with an overlying freshwater alluvial aquifer, and depending on seasonal river stage and hydrologic conditions, the brine discharges to the Dolores River causing the observed increase in salinity as the river crosses the Paradox Valley.

To reduce salinity concentrations in the Dolores River, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU). The PVU project consists of nine shallow brine pumping wells near the Dolores River and one deep disposal well where the brine is injected for disposal. When operational, the PVU pumping wells extract brine from the base of the alluvial aquifer that is piped and injected into a deep disposal well about 3 miles southwest of the PVU. The PVU became fully operational July 1, 1996, and by 2015, operation of the PVU had reduced salinity concentrations in the Dolores River by as much as 70 percent compared to pre-PVU conditions. In response to a 4.5 magnitude earthquake, injection operations, and thus PVU pumping, were ceased from March 2019 to June 2022. A trial period of PVU operation began in June 2022 with a reduced injection rate, and thus PVU pumping rate, of about two-thirds capacity to gather additional information and guide future operational decisions.

In cooperation with Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed this report to present the current (2023) understanding of groundwater and brine occurrence and discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley. Results from the compilation of spatial datasets, groundwater sampling and age dating, and aquifer tests are presented to provide improved understanding of the Paradox Valley hydrogeology, to supply datasets for a numerical groundwater-flow and brine-transport model, and to support future operations of the PVU. The hydrogeologic data provided herein, along with the most recent loading analysis for the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, and a previous conceptual model for brine discharge to the river are used to present a conceptual understanding of groundwater occurrence in the Paradox Valley.

Released August 16, 2024 14:20 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1022

Kendra L. Russell, William J. Andrews, Vincent J. DiFrenna, J. Michael Norris, Robert R. Mason, Jr.

Executive Summary

A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States, entered June 7, 1954 (New Jersey v. New York, 347 U.S. 995), established the position of Delaware River Master within the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, the Decree authorizes the diversion of water from the Delaware River Basin and requires compensating releases from certain reservoirs owned by New York City be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. The Decree stipulates that the River Master provide reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually. This report is the 64th annual report of the River Master of the Delaware River. The report covers the 2017 River Master report year, from December 1, 2016, to November 30, 2017.

During the report year, precipitation in the upper Delaware River Basin was 47.85 inches or 108 percent of the long-term average. On December 1, 2016, combined useable storage in the New York City reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin was 110.115 billion gallons or 40.7 percent of combined storage capacity, the lowest combined storage of the 2017 report year. The reservoirs were at about 100 percent of useable capacity on May 31, 2017. Combined storage remained above 80 percent of combined capacity until September 2017.

A lower basin drought watch issued by the Delaware River Basin Commission in 2016 extended from the beginning of this report year to January 18, 2017. The drought watch was ended on January 18, 2017, due to increased precipitation in December 2016. River Master operations during the year were conducted as stipulated by the Decree and the Flexible Flow Management Programs.

Diversions from the Delaware River Basin by New York City and New Jersey fully complied with the Decree. Reservoir releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the flow objective for the Delaware River at Montague, New Jersey (N.J.), on 52 days during the report year. Interim Excess Release Quantity and conservation releases, designed to relieve thermal stress and protect the fishery and aquatic habitat in the tailwaters of the reservoirs, were made during the report year. Excess Release Quantity and Interim Excess Release Quantity Bank releases were also made during the report year.

The water quality in the Delaware River estuary between the streamgages at Trenton, N.J., and Reedy Island Jetty, Delaware, was monitored at various locations. The data on water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and pH were collected continuously by electronic instruments at four sites.

Released August 16, 2024 06:51 EST

2024, The Cryosphere (18) 3195-3230

Livia Piermattei, Michael Zemp, Christian Sommer, Fanny Brun, Matthias H. Braun, Liss M. Andreassen, Joaquín M. C. Belart, Etienne Berthier, Atanu Bhattacharya, Laura Boehm Vock, Tobias Bolch, Amaury Dehecq, Inés Dussaillant, Daniel Falaschi, Caitlyn Florentine, Dana Floricioiu, Christian Ginzler, Gregoire Guillet, Romain Hugonnet, Andreas Kääb, Owen King, Christoph Klug, Friedrich Knuth, Lukas Krieger, Jeff La Frenierre, Robert McNabb, Christopher Mcneil, Rainer Prinz, Louis C. Sass, Thorsten Seehaus, David Shean, Désirée Treichler, Anja Wendt, Ruitang Yang

Released August 15, 2024 13:48 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1040

Alexandra Houston, Lisa D. Allen, Shannon M. Mendia, Barbara E. Kus

Executive Summary

We completed four protocol surveys for Least Bell’s Vireos (Vireo bellii pusillus; hereinafter vireo) during the breeding season, supplemented by weekly territory monitoring visits between April 6 and July 20 at the San Luis Rey Flood Risk Management Project Area (hereinafter Project Area). We identified a total of 136 territorial male vireos; 121 were confirmed as paired, and 4 were confirmed as single males. For the remaining 11 territories, we were unable to confirm breeding status. In 2023, two transient vireos were detected. The vireo population in the Project Area increased by 2 percent from 2022 to 2023. Populations in southern San Diego County also increased (by 6 percent on the Otay River) or were stable (Salt Creek/Wolf Canyon). In contrast, the vireo population at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP) and at Marine Corps Air Station decreased by 2 and 10 percent, respectively.

We used an index of treatment (hereinafter Treatment Index) to evaluate the effect of ongoing vegetation clearing on the Project Area vireo population. The Treatment Index measures the cumulative effect of vegetation treatment within a territory by using the percentage area treated weighted by the number of years since treatment. We determined that the Treatment Index for an unoccupied habitat was more than four times higher than that of an occupied habitat, indicating that vireos selected habitats that were less treated in which to settle.

We monitored vireo nests at three general site types: (1) within the flood channel where non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred regularly (hereinafter Channel), (2) three sites near the flood channel where limited non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred (hereinafter Off-channel), and (3) three sites that have been actively restored by planting native vegetation (hereinafter Restoration). Nesting activity was monitored in 84 territories, 4 of which were occupied by single males. Overall, 46 percent of completed nests were successful, and nest success did not differ among the three sites. In 2023, we found that territories in the Channel had greater hatching success per egg compared to Off-channel, but there were no other differences with regard to clutch size, hatching, or fledging success among Channel, Off-channel, and Restoration sites. Overall breeding success and productivity were slightly higher in 2023 than in 2022, with pairs fledging an average±standard deviation of 3.1±2.1 young and 79 percent of pairs fledging at least 1 young.

To investigate if the cumulative years of treatment had an effect on vireo reproductive effort, we looked at the effects of the Treatment Index on reproductive parameters. Results from generalized linear models indicated that treatment did not have an effect on vireo nesting effort (the number of nest attempts) or the number of vireo fledglings per pair produced in 2023. Similarly, we did not detect an effect of Treatment Index on the daily survival rate (DSR) of nests.

Analysis of vegetation data collected at vireo nests from 2006 to 2023 did not reveal an effect of vegetation cover at the nest on DSR. We did find, however, that Channel nests were placed higher in and farther from the edge of the host plant than Off-channel nests. Within sites, we did not detect any differences in vegetation cover between successful and unsuccessful nests.

Red/arroyo willow (Salix laevigata or Salix lasiolepis) and mule fat (Baccharis salicifolia) were the species most commonly selected for nesting by vireos in all three site types. Black willow (Salix gooddingii) and sandbar willow (Salix exigua) also were commonly used. Vireos used a wider variety of species for nesting in Channel and Off-channel sites (10 and 13 species, respectively) compared to Restoration sites (2 species), although there was limited nesting in Restoration sites in 2023.

There were 51 vireos banded before the 2023 breeding season that were resighted and identified at the Project Area in 2023. Two of these vireos were originally banded outside of the Project Area, at the Santa Margarita River on MCBCP. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 7 years old. Between 2006 and 2023, survival of males (66±11 percent) was consistently higher than that of females (60±12 percent). First-year birds from 2006 to 2022 had an average annual survival of 15±5 percent.

First-year dispersal in 2023 averaged 20.2±31.3 kilometers (km), with the longest dispersal (76.3 km) by a female that was recaptured at Wolf Canyon, a tributary to Otay River. From 2007 to 2012, most returning first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, whereas from 2014 to 2016, a greater proportion of returning birds dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area. From 2018 to 2022, the trend shifted, and more first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, except for 2022 when only one out of five first-year vireos returned to the Project Area. This trend continued in 2023: 71 percent of all first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, and 29 percent dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area (San Diego River and Wolf Canyon).

Most of the returning adult male vireos showed strong between-year fidelity to their previous territories. In 2023, 94 percent of males (34/36) occupied a territory that they had defended in 2022 (within 100 meters [m]). In 2023, 33 percent of females (1/3) detected returned to a territory they occupied in 2022. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.2±0.9 km. The amount of treatment at adults’ 2022 territories did not affect the distance adults moved to their 2023 territories.

We completed four protocol surveys for the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus; hereinafter flycatcher) at the Project Area between May 15 and July 21, 2023. In 2023, four transient Willow Flycatchers were detected in the Project Area. Two transients were detected in Reach 1, one in Reach 3a, and one in Whelan Mitigation. No resident flycatchers were documented in the Project Area in 2023.

A total of 46 vegetation transects (516 points) were sampled in the Project Area in 2023. There were 71 percent (368/516) of points located in the Channel, and 22 percent (113/516) were in Upper Pond. The remaining 7 percent (35/516) of points were at the Whelan Restoration site. Foliage cover below 1 m was higher at the Channel points and Upper Pond compared to Whelan Restoration. From 1 to 3 m, foliage cover was similar at all 3 sites; however, above 3 m foliage cover was higher in the Channel compared to the Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration sites. Average canopy height was higher in the Channel (5.6±3.8 m) compared to Upper Pond (4.7±2.7 m) and Whelan Restoration (4.0±2.0 m). From 2006 to 2023, total foliage cover declined from 2 to 3 m and above 6 m in the Channel, in contrast to Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration, where little directional change in vegetation cover has occurred and where vegetation cover has largely recovered to 2006 levels. Within the Channel, the steepest declines occurred between 2009 and 2013 and between 2014 and 2016. Since 2016, we observed an increase in foliage cover, largely herbaceous, between 0 and 2 m within the Channel. Although increases were observed at all height classes after 2016, percentage cover has remained below levels measured before 2009.

We sampled vegetation at 45 vireo nests and 45 random plots (territory plots) within territories in the Channel and Upper Pond after the 2023 breeding season. Vireos in the Channel established territories in areas with significantly more cover from 3 to 7 m but less cover below 1 m relative to the available habitat. Within territories, Channel vireos selected nest sites largely at random, but with significantly less foliage cover from 4 to 5 m. Vireos at Upper Pond established territories in areas with significantly more foliage cover below 4 m and from 5 to 6 m relative to available habitat. Within territories, Upper Pond vireos also selected nest sites at random except for a preference for sites with significantly less foliage cover below 1 m.

Released August 15, 2024 09:34 EST

2024, Environmental Science & Technology

Ying-Jie He, Haolin Liao, Ge Yang, Wenhui Qui, Rongrong Xuan, Guomao Zheng, Bentuo Xu, Xin Yang, Jason Tyler Magnuson, Daniel Schlenk, Chunmiao Zheng

Perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), an emerging short-chain per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance, has been frequently detected in aquatic environments. Adverse outcome pathway studies have shown that perfluorinated compounds impair lipid homeostasis through peroxisome proliferator activated receptors (PPARs). However, many of these studies were performed at high concentrations and may thus be a result of overt toxicity. To better characterize the molecular and key events of PFHxS to biota, early life-stage zebrafish (Danio rerio) were exposed to concentrations detected in the environment (0.01, 0.1, 1, and 10 μg/L). Lipidomic and transcriptomic evaluations were integrated to predict potential molecular targets. PFHxS significantly impaired lipid homeostasis by the dysregulation of glycerophospholipids, fatty acyls, glycerolipids, sphingolipids, prenol lipids, and sterol lipids. Informatic analyses of the lipidome and transcriptome indicated alterations of the PPAR signaling pathway, with downstream changes to retinol, linoleic acid, and glycerophospholipid metabolism. To assess the role of PPARs, potential binding of PFHxS to PPARs was predicted and animals were coexposed to a PPAR antagonist (GW6471). Molecular simulation indicated PFHxS had a 27.1% better binding affinity than oleic acid, an endogenous agonist of PPARα. Antagonist coexposures rescued impaired glycerophosphocholine concentrations altered by PFHxS. These data indicate PPARα activation may be an important molecular initiating event for PFHxS.

Released August 15, 2024 08:38 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Map 3523

A.R. Whaling, W.J. Bolton

Rockdale County Department of Water Resources has a directive to update estimates of the reservoir storage capacity of Randy Poynter Lake, located in northern Georgia, and to assess recent sedimentation and associated storage capacity loss. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a multibeam bathymetric survey of Randy Poynter Lake to update storage capacity estimates and to quantify storage capacity change since the first multibeam bathymetric survey in 2012 in consideration of estimated errors inherent to bathymetric surveys. Data from the 2022 survey were used to generate contours of the reservoir as well as compute storage capacity at regular increments of water-surface elevation. Storage capacity comparisons between 2012 and 2022 at Randy Poynter Lake show minimal changes that are within the estimated uncertainties, with consistent or slightly increased storage capacities observed at most water-surface elevations and reductions observed at the remaining few elevations. Comparison of the multibeam bathymetric data collected in 2012 with data collected in 2022 further allowed for a formal geomorphic change detection analysis to map, quantify, and infer causation of morphological change over time with respect to a level of detectable change. The volume change in Randy Poynter Lake for the decade between 2012 and 2022 was slightly net-depositional and within the estimated uncertainty. The spatial distribution of sediment deposition was primarily concentrated in the northern portion of the lake, where the principal tributary flows into Randy Poynter Lake. The results of the geomorphic change analysis were used to further understand the future implications to storage capacity change. Despite the challenges of confirming systematic biases because of uncertainties exceeding the observed changes, insights from the study help predict long-term reservoir sediment accumulation, indicating a reservoir half-life extending about 650 years from 2022 on the basis of the current sediment yield estimates.

Released August 15, 2024 07:19 EST

2024, Endangered Species Research (54) 383-394

Sophia N. Lyon, Joseph A. Tomoleoni, Julie L. Yee, Jessica Fujii, Nicole M. Thometz

Sea otters Enhydra lutris are vital keystone predators throughout the North Pacific that were nearly extirpated during the maritime fur trade. Recovery of southern sea otters E. l. nereis has proceeded slowly, with much of their historical range remaining unoccupied, resulting in reduced ecosystem functioning. Numerous studies have used foraging metrics to assess the population status of southern sea otters throughout their current range, but little is known about the northern range extent, where a stall in expansion has limited recovery. Thus, we collected census and foraging data of sea otters at Año Nuevo State Park, California, from 2019 to 2021 to determine sea otter abundance, diet composition, diet diversity, and average energy intake rate at the northern range edge. We then assessed regional population status by comparing values from Año Nuevo with previously collected data from other locations in California, including high-density, range center sites and low-density, range periphery sites. We found that sea otter density at Año Nuevo was greater than surrounding areas at the northern range periphery, and the average (±95% CI) energy intake (9.51 ± 0.91 kcal min^-1) more closely resembled values observed at high-density sites. Further, dietary diversity (using the Shannon-Wiener index, H) was intermediate between previously studied high- and low-density populations (H = 1.81), with crabs making up the largest proportion of the diet (~56%). Overall, this study highlights possible effects of occupation time and range stagnation, identifies unique aspects of the prey resource base at Año Nuevo, and provides insight into the ongoing lack of northern range expansion.

Released August 15, 2024 06:48 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5072

Ariele R. Kramer, Justin R. Abel

Milford Lake, the largest reservoir by surface area in Kansas, has had confirmed harmful algal blooms every summer since reporting began in 2011, except 2018–19. Milford Lake has been listed as impaired and designated hypereutrophic under section 303(d) of the 1972 Clean Water Act. In 2014, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment established a total maximum daily load for eutrophication and dissolved oxygen impairments. In 2018, the Natural Resources Conservation Service funded the Regional Conservation Partnership Program for the Milford Lake Watershed to focus on best management practices in the Lower Republican River Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, completed this study to assess and quantify water-quality constituent concentrations and loads for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended sediment (SS) using previously published models for the Republican River near Clay Center, Kansas (U.S. Geological Survey station 06856600), about 15 miles upstream from Milford Lake, during August 1, 2018, through July 31, 2023. TN, TP, and SS concentrations and loads were monitored because of their relation to water supply and water-quality issues in Milford Lake, including nutrient and sediment transport, taste-and-odor events, potentially toxic cyano-harmful algal bloom events, and subsequent downstream transport of contaminants. Data from this report can be used to evaluate changing conditions, provide science-based information for decision making, and help meet regulatory requirements.

The study mean annual loads for TN and TP were greater than the reported mean annual total maximum daily load and exceeded the watershed reduction goals as well as Kansas nonpoint source reduction goals defined by the Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategy for the Lower Republican watershed. TN and TP annual loads during 2019–20 were greater than the defined mean annual total maximum daily load. During 2022, TN and TP annual loads were less than the Kansas nonpoint source reduction goal and during 2023 were less than the watershed reduction goal. SS loads were less than the mean annual sedimentation rate computed from the total maximum daily load for the entirety of the study period, and the study mean annual load was 72 percent less than the designed annual reservoir sedimentation rate for Milford Lake.

Data collected during the study period represented a wide range of streamflow and water-quality conditions at the Clay Center site, ranging from low-flow with less frequent runoff during 2023 to high-flow with frequent runoff during 2018. Nutrient reduction goals were only met in the final 2 years of the study period when annual mean flow conditions were lower than normal, indicating that goals may be unattainable during average or high-flow conditions. In all years except 2019, the annual mean SS load was less than the 20-year sediment load reduction target. Although annual SS loads at the Clay Center site generally decreased over time, corresponding reductions in annual streamflow indicated that these reductions may primarily be related to less frequent runoff from the upstream basin. Continued water-quality monitoring and tracking of best management practices are necessary to understand the success of Regional Conservation Partnership Program efforts to reduce nutrient transport in the Milford Lake Watershed.

Released August 13, 2024 16:30 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5043

Natalie K. Day, Todd M. Preston, Patrick C. Longley

Understanding and quantifying soil erosion from rangelands is a high priority for land managers, especially in areas underlain by Cretaceous Mancos Shale, which is a natural source of sediment, salinity, and selenium to surface waters in many areas of western Colorado and eastern Utah. The purpose of this report is to present the results of a U.S. Geological Survey study that assessed sediment, salinity, and selenium yields after the Dead Dog wildfire (fire began June 11, 2017) in northwestern Colorado. Two methodologies were used to quantify erosion, with different data requirements and analytical complexity. The first approach was the use of a process-based erosion model, the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project, which uses inputs of climate, topography, vegetation, and soils data from existing datasets to predict erosion, making this approach easily extensible to other areas. The second approach required more complex data collection and was used to measure erosion and deposition by differencing digital elevation models created from uncrewed aerial vehicle imagery collected in 2016 (pre-fire) and 2021 (post-fire). Sediment, salinity, and selenium yields were calculated from the volumetric estimates of erosion from both methods, and a discussion of factors that may have contributed to overall findings, including vegetation, fire effects, and soil characteristics, is included.

The two approaches yielded different outputs. Results from the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project model indicated that almost no erosion occurred after the Dead Dog fire. However, morphological changes in the study basin after the Dead Dog fire were visible in the pre- and post-fire imagery and measured in the digital elevation model differencing technique, with net erosion occurring in channel and landscape extents, though calculated erosion rates and salinity and selenium yields were relatively small. Visible and measured morphological changes consisted primarily of incision and deposition within stream channels and rill incision and expansion on steeper slopes. Widespread sheet erosion was not evident. Much of the new erosion originated within, and immediately below, previously vegetated areas that were then burned by the wildfire. Greater erosion rates and salinity and selenium yields were measured in the channel extent relative to the landscape extent. Calculated erosion rates ranged from 0.24 to 0.45 megagrams per hectare per year. These results indicate that the Dead Dog fire resulted in increased erosion in the study basin, yet these effects were relatively small based on the overall magnitude of modeled and measured erosion from the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project and the digital elevation model differencing technique. Minimal erosion in the basin is likely due to local site characteristics typical of soils derived from Mancos Shale, including the presence of robust physical crusts and biological soil crusts, and limitations of the methods based on data availability. Focusing uncrewed aerial vehicle flights on key areas (individual steep slopes, high-intensity burn areas, specific stream reaches) could likely increase understanding of erosional process with less effort and error than doing landscape-level flights.

Released August 13, 2024 11:55 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5022

Katherine R. Merriman, Benjamin N. Fisher, Elizabeth A. Nystrom, Aubrey R. Bunch, Robert J. Welk, William M. Kappel

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Erie County, New York, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, and the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, collected water-quality samples in nine selected New York tributaries to Lake Erie, computed estimates of suspended sediment and nutrient loads using the R scripting package rloadest and used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrology and suspended sediment and nutrient loads from these tributaries. This project was undertaken to better understand the water quality of New York’s inputs into eastern Lake Erie.

Water-quality samples for suspended sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus were collected at 19 sampling sites in the Lake Erie Basin in New York. Daily and monthly suspended sediment and nutrient loads were computed with regressions of streamflow and suspended sediment and nutrient concentrations using rloadest.

SWAT models of nine watersheds were created using publicly available data; and the loads calculated by rloadest. Twenty-six SWAT model scenarios were created to explore the effects that best management practices (BMPs; 21 scenarios), point source discharges (4 scenarios), and green infrastructure (1 scenario) can have on the water quality of the nine tributaries to Lake Erie. BMP scenarios for the watershed models included combinations of agricultural BMPs applied at varying implementation levels across the study watersheds, including cover crops, reduced tillage, nutrient management plans, and filter strips. The BMP scenarios showed small reductions of total nitrogen and total phosphorus. The scenarios have variable suspended sediment load results, with both increases and decreases of sediment modeled. The point source scenarios result in lower total phosphorus loads. The green infrastructure scenario shows only minimal reduction of suspended sediment and nutrient loads from the Buffalo River watershed but shows substantial reductions locally.

Released August 13, 2024 11:41 EST

2024, Data Report 1199

Gabriel B. Senay, David A. Helweg, Stefanie Kagone, Thomas Cecere, Tiare Eastmond, Amy Koch, Kurtis Nelson, Jack Randon

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI; also known as the Marshall Islands) is a nation of more than 30 low-lying atolls and islands, most of which are inhabited, dispersed across an Exclusive Economic Zone over 770,000 square miles in the tropical central north Pacific Ocean. The study objectives and methods were originally presented in U.S. Geological Survey Data Report 1181 and are summarized herein. Monitoring environmental conditions for potential drought risk is challenging in such a dispersed island nation, and current drought hazard products provide generalities regarding conditions on a broad geographic scale. In 2022–23, a team of U.S. Geological Survey scientists, and managers of natural resources and natural hazards in the RMI, used Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement satellite estimates of precipitation to develop content and a template for timely monthly reporting of precipitation for 23 inhabited atolls and islands. After a year of report production and user feedback, the team incorporated lessons learned and revised user priorities to update the content and layout of the template. This data report describes the collaboration process and results of revising the report content and layout into version 2 of the monthly satellite-estimated precipitation report.

Released August 13, 2024 09:22 EST

2024, Groundwater

Karli M Rogers, Jennifer Burlingame Hoyle Fair, Nathaniel Hitt, Karmann G. Kessler, Zachary A. Kelly, Martin Briggs

Streamflow records are biased toward large streams and rivers, yet small headwater streams are often the focus of ecological research in response to climate change. Conventional flow measurement instruments such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) do not perform well during low-flow conditions in small streams, truncating the development of rating curves during critical baseflow conditions dominated by groundwater inflow. We revisited an instantaneous solute tracer injection method as an alternative to ADVs based on paired measurements to compare their precision, efficiency, and feasibility within headwater streams across a range of flow conditions. We show that the precision of discharge measurements using salt dilution by slug injection and ADV methods were comparable overall, but salt dilution was more precise during the lowest flows and required less time to implement. Often, headwater streams were at or below the depth threshold where ADV measurements could even be attempted and transects were complicated by coarse bed material and cobbles. We discuss the methodological benefits and limitations of salt dilution by slug injection and conclude that the method could facilitate a proliferation of streamflow observation across headwater stream networks that are highly undersampled compared to larger streams.

Released August 13, 2024 06:49 EST

2024, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

J. M. Friedman, Anne C. Tillery, Samuel J. Alfieri, Elizabeth Rachaelann Skaggs, Patrick B. Shafroth, Craig D. Allen

Released August 12, 2024 11:18 EST

2024, Techniques and Methods 6-A64

Richard B. Winston

Executive Summary

ModelMuse is a graphical user interface for several groundwater modeling programs. ModelMuse was updated to generate the input files for the parameter estimation software suite PEST. The software is used with MODFLOW or SUTRA models to run PEST-based parameter estimation and display the updated model inputs after parameter estimation. The PEST input files can also be used with the PEST++ version 5 software suite.

Parameter estimation typically requires defining the parameters being adjusted during calibration and observations for assessing calibration quality. After a parameter is defined in ModelMuse, it can be applied to all or part of a model dataset. Pilot points—a parameterization device that facilitates higher levels of parameterization—can be used to assign spatially variable distributions of model inputs. Parameters can be applied to temporally varying features, such as boundary conditions, by either applying them to all the values in a series in one step or by applying separate parameters to individual members of a series. ModelMuse allows the definition of many observation types from various model output files. For MODFLOW 6 and SUTRA models, new options were added to ModelMuse to allow it to display the changed input after parameter estimation is complete. For MODFLOW–2005 and MODFLOW–NWT models, ModelMuse can import an entire model for visualization. An example illustrates the use of PEST with a MODFLOW 6 model in ModelMuse.

Released August 12, 2024 09:30 EST

2024, Communications Biology (7)

Nathan J.C. Backenstose, Daniel J. MacGuigan, Christopher A. Osborne, Moises A. Bernal, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Eric Normandeau, Daniel Yule, Wendylee Stott, Amanda Susanne Ackiss, Victor A. Albert, Louis Bernatchez, Trevor J. Krabbenhoft

The evolutionary histories of adaptive radiations can be marked by dramatic demographic fluctuations. However, the demographic histories of ecologically-linked co-diversifying lineages remain understudied. The Laurentian Great Lakes provide a unique system of two such radiations that are dispersed across depth gradients with a predator-prey relationship. We show that the North American Coregonus species complex (“ciscoes”) radiated rapidly prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (80–90 kya), a globally warm period, followed by rapid expansion in population size. Similar patterns of demographic expansion were observed in the predator species, Lake Charr (Salvelinus namaycush), following a brief time lag, which we hypothesize was driven by predator-prey dynamics. Diversification of prey into deep water created ecological opportunities for the predators, facilitating their demographic expansion, which is consistent with an upward adaptive radiation cascade. This study provides a new timeline and environmental context for the origin of the Laurentian Great Lakes fish fauna, and firmly establishes this system as drivers of ecological diversification and rapid speciation through cyclical glaciation.

Released August 12, 2024 06:49 EST

2024, Ecological Indicators (116)

Richard Inman, Benjamin Seward Robb, Michael O'Donnell, David R. Edmunds, Matthew J Holloran, Cameron L. Aldridge

Released August 12, 2024 06:38 EST

2024, Biogeochemistry

Kevin Alexander Ryan, Vanessa Garayburu-Caruso, Byron Crump, Ted Bambakidis, Peter Raymond, Shaoda Liu, James Stegen

Released August 11, 2024 07:06 EST

2024, Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Todd E. Katzner, George Young

Released August 08, 2024 14:49 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2023-3022

Natalia I. Deligne, Drew T. Downs, Elinor Lutu-McMoore, Steven Sobieszczyk, Wendy K. Stovall

Upu Amata (Introduction)

O le Atu-Samoa o le tasi lenei o faʻasologa motu mauga mu i le Vasa Pasefika i Saute. O motu e pito i sasaʻe o nei faʻasologa mauga mu o le Atu-Samoa, o motu ia o Amerika Samoa. E tofu lava mauga mu taʻitasi o Amerika Samoa ma ona talaaga aemaise tulaga e tutupu e ono pa ai i le lumanai. O loʻo galulue faʻatasi le Ofisa o le U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ma le National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Ofisa Vaʻai Tau i Pago Pago e faailoa i tagatanuʻu ma tagata asiasi o tulaga lamatia e ono tutupu. O loʻo faʻapupula atili atu iʻi auala na gaosia ai motu nei faʻapea auala o loʻo fesoasoani ai le vaega e mataʻituina mauga mū e puipui tagata ma mea-totino mai tulaga lamatia o mauga mū.

American Samoa comprises the easternmost islands of a volcanic island chain in the South Pacific Ocean. Each island of American Samoa has a unique eruptive history and a possibility for future eruptions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborates with the Pago Pago office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service to inform residents and travelers of potential hazards. Insights are provided herein on how the islands formed and how volcano monitoring helps protect people and property from volcanic hazards.

Released August 08, 2024 06:00 EST

2024, Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part C: Toxicology & Pharmacology (285)

Jason Tyler Magnuson, Nathan D. Sy, Philip Tanabe, Chenyang Ji, Jay Gan, Daniel Schlenk

Released August 07, 2024 10:46 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1033

Mariah Giardina, Josh Korman, Michael D. Yard, Scott Wright, Matthew A. Kaplinski, Glenn Bennett

Executive Summary

Fish stranding has been studied in select rivers worldwide, often with the purpose of determining how to mitigate adverse effects of dam operations on highly valued salmon and trout populations. However, where a reduction in trout population size is desired by resource managers, as is the case downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, flow manipulations termed trout management flows (TMFs) may be used to optimize fish stranding and mortality. To inform the design and implementation of potential future TMFs, we reviewed relevant literature to identify key factors that influence fish stranding. We found that key factors were highly interdependent and site-specific, but general trends suggest that down-ramping (decreasing flow) at rapid rates in daytime during the late spring to summer emergence period would lead to stranding of age-0 rainbow trout in shallow shoreline habitat. A hypsometric analysis was then used to predict stranding risk for age-0 rainbow trout in Glen Canyon for a range of TMFs, which incorporated existing bathymetric data and flow and habitat suitability models. Our results indicate that a TMF with a steady high flow ranging from 12,000 to 16,000 cubic feet per second (ft³/s) combined with a minimum flow ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 ft³/s may effectively strand age-0 fish while also minimizing risk to water storage in Lake Powell and other resources. This strategy implemented under normal hydropeaking operations was predicted to lead to a substantive stranding risk when paired with low flows of 5,000 ft³/s, and especially 3,000 ft³/s. However, there remains uncertainty associated with elements of implementing an effective TMF downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. The main uncertainties include (1) the down-ramp rate that maximizes stranding of age-0 trout, (2) the duration of drawdown to maximize stranding mortality while minimizing impact to downstream resources, (3) duration of high flows required for age-0 fish to colonize newly created shoreline habitat (this is only for certain TMF hydrographs), (4) number of repetitions of TMF cycles to minimize compensatory survival response, and (5) recruitment threshold of both rainbow and brown trout populations to trigger TMF implementation.

Released August 07, 2024 09:19 EST

2024, Ecology Letters (27)

L. Ruth Rivkin, Evan Richardson, Joshua D. Miller, Todd C. Atwood, Steven Baryluk, Erik W. Born, Corey Davis, Marcus Dyck, Evelien de Greef, Kristin L. Laidre, Nick Lunn, Sarah McCarthy-Neumann, Martyn E. Obbard, Megan A. Owen, Nicholas Pilfold, Amélie Roberto-Charro, Oystein Wiig, Aryn Wilder, Colin J Garroway

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, threatening the persistence of many Arctic species. It is uncertain if Arctic wildlife will have sufficient time to adapt to such rapidly warming environments. We used genetic forecasting to measure the risk of maladaptation to warming temperatures and sea ice loss in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled across the Canadian Arctic. We found evidence for local adaptation to sea ice conditions and temperature. Forecasting of genome-environment mismatches for predicted climate scenarios suggested that polar bears in the Canadian high Arctic had the greatest risk of becoming maladapted to climate warming. While Canadian high Arctic bears may be the most likely to become maladapted, all polar bears face potentially negative outcomes to climate change. Given the importance of the sea ice habitat to polar bears, we expect that maladaptation to future warming is already widespread across Canada.

Released August 07, 2024 08:36 EST

2024, Journal of Great Lakes Research

Rebecca Kreiling, Carrie E Givens, Anna C. Baker, Richard L. Kiesling, Eric D. Dantoin, Patrik Mathis Perner, Shelby P. Sterner, Kenna J. Gierke, Paul Reneau

Watershed fluxes of suspended sediment (SS), nutrients, in particular phosphorus (P), and cyanobacteria may play a role in driving cyanobacterial blooms along the southwestern shore of oligotrophic Lake Superior. To understand how tributary loads contribute to nearshore blooms, we sampled two southwestern shore tributaries, Bois Brule and Siskiwit Rivers. We collected water-quality samples to compute nutrient and sediment loads and to assess cyanobacteria community composition from the tributaries to the nearshore. We collected suspended and streambed sediment to assess the capacity for sediment to store and transport bioavailable P and to assess cyanobacteria community composition. Storm flows drove export of SS, total P, and total nitrogen, with the majority of total P being particulate P. Equilibrium P concentrations revealed that SS sorbed P as it is moved through the stream network across sites and seasons and was a potential source of P to the nearshore. However, streambed sediment in the Bois Brule and Siskiwit River watersheds were P sinks during summer, which potentially delayed transport of dissolved P to the lake. The cyanobacteria community varied spatially and temporally relating to multiple environmental variables including nutrients (P, N, and C) and specific conductivity. Cyanobacteria capable of producing cyanotoxins were present in tributaries and found across multiple environmental compartments indicating a potential for fluvial flow to the nearshore. This study demonstrated that streamflow is a primary driver of total nutrient and sediment loading in both watersheds, which indicates the potential for algal loading to the nearshore via suspended sediment or water.

Released August 07, 2024 06:23 EST

2024, Ecohydrology

Richard D. Thaxton, Michael L. Scott, John T. Kemper, Sara L. Rathburn, Sabrina Butzke, J. M. Friedman

Released August 06, 2024 10:54 EST

2024, PeerJ (12)

Jessica C. Stanton, Marybeth K. Brey, Alison A. Coulter, David R. Stewart, Brent Knights

Understanding the movement patterns of an invasive species can be a powerful tool in designing effective management and control strategies. Here, we used a Bayesian multistate model to investigate the movement of two invasive carp species, silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis), using acoustic telemetry. The invaded portions of the Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers, USA, are a high priority management zone in the broader efforts to combat the spread of invasive carps from reaching the Laurentian Great Lakes. Our main objective was to characterize the rates of upstream and downstream movements by carps between river pools that are maintained by navigation lock and dam structures. However, we also aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the available telemetry infrastructure to monitor carp movements through this system. We found that, on a monthly basis, most individuals of both species remained within their current river pools: averaging 76.2% of silver carp and 75.5% of bighead carp. Conversely, a smaller proportion of silver carp, averaging 14.2%, and bighead carp, averaging 13.9%, moved to downstream river pools. Movements towards upstream pools were the least likely for both species, with silver carp at an average of 6.7% and bighead carp at 7.9%. The highest probabilities for upstream movements were for fish originating from the three most downstream river pools, where most of the population recruitment occurs. However, our evaluation of the telemetry array’s effectiveness indicated low probability to detect fish in this portion of the river. We provide insights to enhance the placement and use of these monitoring tools, aiming to deepen our comprehension of these species’ movement patterns in the system.

Released August 06, 2024 06:16 EST

2024, Environmental Entomology

Michaela Ray Grossklaus, David Pilliod, Trevor Caughlin, Ian C. Robertson

Using a selection of native grass and forb seeds commonly seeded in local restoration projects, we conducted a field experiment to evaluate the effects of seed species, distance of seed patches from nests, and distance between patches on patterns of seed removal by Owyhee harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex salinus (Olsen) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae). To provide context for ants’ seed preferences, we evaluated differences in handling time among seed species. In addition, we assessed the influences of cheatgrass, Bromus tectorum (L.) (Poales: Poaceae), and Sandberg bluegrass, Poa secunda (J. Presl) (Poales: Poaceae), cover on seed removal. We found significant differences in removal rates among seed species. In general, seeds placed closer to nests were more vulnerable to predation than those placed farther away, and seeds in closely spaced patches were more vulnerable than seeds in widely spaced patches. However, the strength of these effects differed by seed species. Differences in handling time among seed species may help to explain these findings; the protective effect of from-nest distance was weaker for species that required less time to transport. For 2 of the seed species, there was an interaction between the distance of seed patches from nests and the distance between patches such that the protective effect of distance between patches decreased as the distance from nests increased. Cheatgrass and bluegrass cover both had small protective effects on seeds. Taken together, these results offer insight into the spatial ecology of harvester ant foraging and may provide context for the successful implementation of restoration efforts where harvester ants are present. 

Released August 05, 2024 13:26 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3022

Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons, Jeffrey J. Danielson, W. Matthew Cushing

Introduction

National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Released August 05, 2024 10:20 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3032

R. Fanelli, D. Hardesty, J. Diaz

Introduction

Rivers and surface-water reservoirs supply drinking water to most residents throughout the Triangle area in North Carolina. These drinking-water supplies may be at risk because of rapid and continued land use change throughout the region. In partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey, several Triangle-area municipalities established a long-term water-quality and streamflow monitoring program to quantify changes in water quality and water availability over time and to evaluate the relative risk of potential contaminants in these drinking-water sources.

Released August 05, 2024 09:04 EST

2024, PLOS Water (3)

John G. Warden, Matthew K. Landon, Michael J. Stephens, Tracy Davis, Janice M. Gillespie, Peter B. McMahon, Justin T. Kulongoski, Andrew Hunt, David H. Shimabukuro, Riley Gannon, Lyndsay B. Ball

Groundwater resources are utilized near areas of intensive oil and gas development in California’s San Joaquin Valley. In this study, we examined chemical and isotopic data to assess if thermogenic gas or saline water from oil producing formations have mixed with groundwater near the Elk Hills and North Coles Levee Oil Fields in the southwestern San Joaquin Valley. Major ion concentrations and stable isotope compositions were largely consistent with natural processes, including mixing of different recharge sources and water-rock interactions. Trace methane concentrations likely resulted from microbial rather than thermogenic sources. Trace concentrations of benzene and other dissolved hydrocarbons in three wells had uncertain sources that could occur naturally or be derived from oil and gas development activities or other anthropogenic sources. In the mid-1990s, two industrial supply wells had increasing Cl and B concentrations likely explained by mixing with up to 15 percent saline oil-field water injected for disposal in nearby injection disposal wells. Shallow groundwater along the western margin of Buena Vista Lake Bed had elevated Cl, B, and SO₄ concentrations that could be explained by accumulation of salts during natural wetting and drying cycles or, alternatively, legacy surface disposal of saline oil-field water in upgradient ephemeral drainages. This study showed that groundwater had relatively little evidence of thermogenic gas or saline water from oil and gas sources in most parts of the study area. However, the evidence for groundwater mixing with injected disposal water, and possibly legacy surface disposal water, demonstrates produced water management practices as a potential risk factor for groundwater-quality degradation near oil and gas fields. Additional studies in the San Joaquin Valley and elsewhere could improve understanding of such risks by assessing the locations, volumes, and types of produced water disposal practices used during the life of oil fields.

Released August 05, 2024 08:52 EST

2024, Report

Camila Gaido-Lasserre, Valerie Pietsch McNulty, Curt Storlazzi, Borja Reguero, Denise Perez, Sandra Fogg, Kristen A. Cumming, Jessica Ward, Steve Schill, Celeste Jarvis, Michael W. Beck

Coastal habitat restoration, especially of coral reef ecosystems, can significantly reduce the exposure of coastal communities to natural hazards and, consequently, the risk of wave-driven flooding. Likewise, reef degradation can increase coastal flood risks to people and property. In this study, the valuation of coral reefs in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI), along the coasts of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas, demonstrated the social and economic benefits provided by these natural defenses. Across the territory, more than 481 people and $31.2 million of infrastructure were estimated to receive protection from coral reefs per year (2010 U.S. dollars). In 2017, Hurricanes Irma and Maria significantly damaged coral reefs throughout the archipelago. By combining engineering, ecological, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools, this study provided a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration projects could help rebuild these damaged habitats and decrease the risks from coastal hazards faced by USVI’s reef-fronted communities. Multiple restoration scenarios were considered in the analysis, two of which are detailed in this report. These include (1) ‘Ecological’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 0.25 m high and 25-m-wide reef, and (2) ‘Hybrid’ restoration, where restoration creates a structure that is 1.25 m high and 5 m wide. There are many ways that such structures could be developed. In the hydrodynamic analyses, there are no assumptions about how the restoration is developed. Many practitioners of both coral (and oyster reef) restoration consider that a reef height of 0.25 m might be delivered from planting corals alone and that 1.25 m might require a combination of artificial structures and coral planting. In a third scenario, the analysis investigated the reduction of protection benefits that would occur through the reduction of 1 meter of naturally occurring reef height due to reef degradation. The reduction of protection due to the loss of reefs can also be interpreted as the protection value of the existing reefs.

In all studied restoration scenarios, it was assumed that the planting of corals would enhance hydrodynamic roughness, effectively dissipating incident wave energy and reducing the potential for coastal flooding. A standardized approach was employed to strategically locate potential restoration projects along the entire linear extent of existing reefs bordering the USVI, and to identify where coral reef restoration could offer valuable benefits in flood reduction. Potential restoration projects were only located within the existing distribution of reefs across the region, even though numerous sites were positioned far offshore (2-3 km), and some were at relatively deep depths (up to 7 m). Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to delineate flood zones at a 10 m² resolution along the entire region's reef-lined shorelines for all the potential coral reef restoration scenarios. These were subsequently compared to flood zones without coral reef restoration.

The potential reduction in coastal flood risk provided by coral reef restoration, and the protection value of existing reefs, were quantified utilizing the latest information available at the time of analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. The change in Expected Annual Damages (EAD), a metric indicating the annual protection gained due to coral reef restoration, was calculated based on the damages associated with each storm probability. The findings suggest that the benefits of reef restoration are spatially variable within the USVI. In some areas, the analysis showed limited benefits from reef restoration, which may be attributed to the depth or offshore distances of proposed restoration sites. However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction.

The annual flood risk reduction attributed to potential ‘ecological’ coral reef restoration in the USVI was 99 people and $6.1 million (2010 U.S. dollars). The Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (BCR) for this restoration approach was found to be larger than 1 (i.e., cost-effective) along 11% of the St. Croix coastline, 4.9% of the St. John coastline, and 8.7% of the St. Thomas coastline. This analysis offers stakeholders and decision-makers a spatially explicit and rigorous evaluation that illustrates how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration efforts in St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas could be instrumental to reducing coastal storm-induced flooding. Understanding areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could effectively reduce climate hazard-related risks is crucial to protect and enhance the resilience of coastal communities in USVI.

Released August 05, 2024 06:55 EST

2024, Ecology

Rebecca A Finger-Higgens, David L. Hoover, Anna C Knight, Savannah Wilson, Tara Boyce Belnap Bishop, Robin H. Reibold, Sasha C. Reed, Michael C. Duniway

Released August 04, 2024 08:31 EST

2024, PaleoAmerica

Jeffrey S. Pigati, Kathleen B. Springer, Harrison J. Gray, Matthew R. Bennett, David Bustos

Rhode et al. (2024) allege that there are many “unresolved issues” with the geochronology of White Sands National Park (WHSA) Locality 2. They suggest there are substantial age offsets due to hard-water effects in the aquatic plants that were dated and that radiocarbon ages of pollen may be anomalously old due to reworking. In their view, the luminescence ages are likely to be maximum ages because of the probable presence of partially bleached quartz grains, overestimation of water content, and stratigraphic position of the samples. They also assert the ages of the footprint trackways are not as internally consistent as suggested and can be interpreted in various ways. We review each of these issues and show they are without merit, often irrelevant, at odds with first principles, and stem from a lack of firsthand understanding of the studies we conducted at WHSA Locality 2.

Released August 03, 2024 13:41 EST

2020, International Statistical Review (88) 441-461

Mevin Hooten, Christopher K. Wikle, Michael R. Schwob

A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g., those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of the measurement error and the underlying dynamic process can complicate the implementation of statistical agent-based models (ABMs) for population demography. In a Bayesian setting, traditional computational algorithms for fitting hierarchical demographic models can be prohibitively cumbersome to construct. Thus, we discuss a variety of approaches for fitting statistical ABMs to data and demonstrate how to use multistage recursive Bayesian computing and statistical emulators to fit models in such a way that alleviates the need to have analytical knowledge of the ABM likelihood. Using two examples, a demographic model for survival and a compartment model for COVID-19, we illustrate statistical procedures for implementing ABMs. The approaches we describe are intuitive and accessible for practitioners and can be parallelized easily for additional computational eciency.

Released August 02, 2024 15:12 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5055

Timothy J. Stagnitta, Alexander P. Graziano, Joshua C. Woda, Robin L. Glas, Christopher L. Gazoorian

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, updated low-streamflow statistics for New York, excluding Long Island and including hydrologically connected watersheds in bordering States, for the first time since 1972. Historical daily streamflow data for active and inactive gages were considered for this study with periods of record as recent as March 31, 2022, adding 50 years of data to the last published low-streamflow statistics report for New York and including 119 new gages where low-streamflow statistics are calculated for the first time. Gages were evaluated across several criteria to identify gages that were not suitable for low-streamflow frequency analysis. In addition, gages were evaluated for the presence of alteration within the streamflow period of record based on previous studies and U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System site metadata including peak flow codes.

A trend analysis was performed using the Wilcoxon rank-sum hypothesis test comparing data from the most recent 30 years of record to data from 30 years and earlier for each long-record gage (30 years or more of available data). Results from the trend analysis indicated that 45 unaltered and 32 altered long-record sites had a statistically significant trend for the annual minimum n-day time series; most gages showed increasing trends in the annual minimum n-day time series. Low-streamflow statistics were calculated using the most recent 30 years of record for gages with a statistically significant trend. Before and after 1972, the lowest annual 7-day and 30-day average streamflow that occurs (on average) once every 10 years (7Q10 and 30Q10 statistics respectively) increased significantly at 41 unaltered gages and decreased significantly at 3 unaltered gages where data were available.

Released August 02, 2024 07:19 EST

2024, Freshwater Science

Angela M Klock, Christian E. Torgersen, Marilyn C Roberts, Daniel J Vogt, Kristiina A Vogt

Released August 02, 2024 06:46 EST

2024, Geosphere

Tyson Michael Smith, Marieke Dechesne, Jaime Ann Megumi Hirtz, Glenn R. Sharman, Mark R. Hudson, Brandon Michael Lutz, Neil Patrick Griffis

Released August 01, 2024 10:52 EST

2024, Avian Conservation and Ecology (19)

Theodore J. Zenzal Jr., Andrea Contina, Hannah B. Vander Zanden, Leanne K. Kuwahara, Daniel C. Allen, Kristen M. Covino

The species-specific migratory patterns and strategies of many songbirds remain unknown or understudied, as research in animal ecology is biased toward the breeding period, with the fewest studies on the migratory period across taxa. Identifying large-scale spatiotemporal migratory patterns is challenging, as individuals within a species may vary in their migratory behavior and strategies. The Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia) is a Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that is relatively well studied during the breeding season, but its species-wide migratory patterns remain understudied. Our aim in studying Yellow Warbler movement ecology was to characterize temporal migration patterns during fall migration. We sought to determine the temporal migration pattern among breeding locations, as determined by the hydrogen stable isotope values in feather samples collected at disjunct (~2000 km) stopover sites in the Gulf of Maine (n = 50) and the Gulf of Mexico (n = 150). We used a similarity matrix to group individuals into a geographic cluster by breeding location, which was then used as the response variable in a modeling analysis. Our results provide evidence that Yellow Warblers exhibit an asynchronous, type 1 temporal migration pattern with southern breeding populations initiating migration prior to northern populations. Using hydrogen isotopes, we identified the temporal migration patterns between geographic clusters, representing an individual’s breeding location, and stopover sites along the Gulf of Maine and Gulf of Mexico, which fills a gap in understanding Yellow Warbler migration ecology.

Released August 01, 2024 10:25 EST

2024, Newsletter

Mayumi L. Arimitsu, Caitlin Elizabeth Marsteller, John F. Piatt, Scott Hatch, Shannon Wheland

Capelin are cold-water forage fish that respond rapidly to fluctuating ocean temperatures. They are prized food for seabirds and other marine predators in Alaska. Researchers have monitored seabird diets at Middleton Island for decades to make connections between changes in abundance of predators and their prey. During a prolonged marine heatwave in the Gulf of Alaska, seabird diets and limited trawl surveys showed that capelin populations collapsed from record high abundance during the 2007–2013 cool period (Hatch 2013) to record lows in 2016 (Arimitsu et al. 2021). Capelin occurrence in diets had previously oscillated out of phase with Pacific sand lance numbers during cold and warm years (Sydeman et al. 2017), however, the occurrence of both prey species in seabird diets fell below average during 2014–2022 (Fig. 1). Following a period of cooler ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, during 2023 we began to see signs of capelin stock recovery, with a moderate increase in occurrence in spring and summer seabird diets (Fig. 1, Hatch et al. 2023). Continued monitoring of seabird diets can help track capelin populations and other key forage fish to inform ecosystem-based management in 2024 and beyond.

Released August 01, 2024 08:50 EST

2024, Research Note RMRS-RN-103

Julia Goolsby, Patricia A. Champ, Suzanne Wittenbrink, Colleen Donovan, Kris King, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, James Meldrum, Christopher M. Barth, Carolyn Wagner, Chiara Forrester

 Community wildfire readiness includes actions taken by residents, including wildfire risk mitigation at the parcel level and evacuation preparedness. This report presents results from two data collection efforts in the Lake Wenatchee Fire & Rescue service district in Chelan County, Washington: parcel level rapid wildfire risk assessments and household surveys sent to the owners of assessed parcels. Respondents reported that they were moderately aware of the risk of wildfire to their home, were discussing wildfire with their neighbors, and were taking action to reduce risk. There are gaps in respondents’ understanding of wildfire risk that might be addressed through educational outreach. Respondents were supportive of wildfire risk reduction strategies at the community level, including fuel treatments and policy options.

Released August 01, 2024 07:21 EST

2024, Report

Brian O'Malley, Scott P. Minihkeim, Olivia Margaret Mitchinson, Scott David Stahl, Jessica A Goretzke, Jeremy P. Holden

Since 1978, surveys of Lake Ontario preyfish communities have provided information on the status and trends of the benthic preyfish community related to Fish Community Objectives that includes understanding preyfish population dynamics and community diversity. Beginning in 2015, the benthic preyfish survey expanded from US-only to incorporate Canadian sites, increasing the survey’s spatial coverage to a lake-wide scale. Additionally, sampling in eastern US embayments (Black River, Chaumont, Guffin, and Henderson Bays), that were historically sampled during a September bottom trawl survey to index Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens; 1978–2007), resumed in 2015. The current survey provides abundance indices for sculpins, Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and Bloater (Coregonus hoyi) with survey techniques, gear and timing comparable to Lake Michigan. This alignment provides a necessary biological reference point for measuring the success of Lake Ontario Bloater reintroduction. In 2023, the collaborative benthic preyfish survey completed 188 bottom trawl tows across main lake and embayment sites at depths from 6 to 249 m. In total, the 2023 survey sampled 85,801 fish from 38 species. Round Goby was the most common species comprising 43% of the total catch, followed by Deepwater Sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii), and Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) at 22% and 13%, respectively. Slimy Sculpin (Cottus cognatus) lake-wide biomass density (0.06 kg/ha) remained low relative to historical observations from US waters during the 1980-1990s and was orders of magnitude lower in US than Canadian waters. Lake-wide Deepwater Sculpin biomass density remains high since the population recovery (4.1 kg/ha). Embayment catches continue to have unique species assemblages compared to main lake habitat. Historically common native benthic preyfish species like Trout-perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus), Spottail Shiner (Notropis hudsonius), and darters (Etheostoma spp.), that are now rare at main lake trawl sites, still occur in some embayment trawl sites.

Released August 01, 2024 07:14 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1049

Mandy L. Stone, Casey J. Lee, Teresa J. Rasmussen, Thomas J. Williams, Ariele R. Kramer, Brian J. Klager

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Kansas Water Science Center (KSWSC) has published time-series computations of water-quality concentrations and loads based on in situ sensor data since 1995. Water-quality constituent concentrations or densities are computed using regression models that relate in situ sensor values to laboratory analyses of periodically collected samples. These regression models currently (2024) follow no uniform published guidance and are individually documented through USGS reports. This report describes updated (2024) procedures designed to improve the consistency, quality, and timeliness of computed continuous water-quality data produced by the USGS KSWSC. Beginning in 2024, models developed by the USGS KSWSC that follow specific procedures and requirements related to sample collection, model fit, and model documentation outlined in this report are planned to be published and stored in the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality Data for the Nation Data Service. This report also describes USGS KSWSC procedures for evaluating and publishing time-series water-quality computations after initial model development and documentation. This guidance can be used to improve USGS KSWSC model development and data computation consistency and streamline the time-series water-quality computation process from model development to publication.

Released July 31, 2024 13:10 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1038

Daniel Manier, Nicholas (Cole) Grisham, Amit Armstrong, Elijah Henley, Jason Doolittle, Richard Inman

Executive Summary

Modern transportation and land-use planning efforts include information from many sources to address topics such as safety, efficiency, commercial, and social needs. This wide breadth of topics provides opportunities for collaboration and development of common tools for diverse users. In many cases, different information systems provide the spatial data and geographic content necessary for transportation and land-use planners to consider multiple lines of evidence. The Federal Highway Administration Office of Federal Lands Highway (FLH) and Federal Land Management Agency partners use detailed spatial and quantitative data to inform transportation decisions. However, logistic challenges to data sharing exist because data are often managed by separate agencies; data-exchange frameworks and interagency data agreements are insufficient; and consistency from aggregated data requires maintenance, coordination, and supporting infrastructure.

The FLH and U.S. Geological Survey collaboratively examined (1) use and availability of spatial data for transportation planning and (2) a possible mechanism to use more shared and consistent data in a common planning environment. The goals of this collaborative effort were to describe data needs from the perspective of planners and to identify opportunities for shared data resources. Results presented here focus on two workshops and a subsequent investigation of data and tools available from partner agencies. The objectives of this report are to (1) describe information used in transportation planning with geographic data; (2) identify spatially explicit data that inform transportation plans and could be shared among all partners; and (3) describe current platforms, planning and administrative opportunities, and potential barriers to developing an integrated planning tool.

Key information and data needs were identified in three major classes: system, user, and influential factors. System data are parts of the transportation network and information about the condition of individual segments and the network. User data provide details about the function of the system and insights into potential needs; for example, user trips between source and destinations inform road and network demands that can lead to congestion and safety issues (in the future, user data might also include scenarios and projections based on land-use plans). Influential data represent social and environmental factors that influence transit demands and network conditions. These factors could be popular locations or seasonal events that influence demand and congestion; wildlife habitat or migration intersections that affect safety and management priorities; or geologic features that influence hazards, maintenance, and safety. Responses described here provide specific information for web-tool design and give a framework for interagency communication and cooperation to address specific information needs for integrated planning. Existing web-mapping and web-services, and the data that inform them, are also described. Commonly, these data are created and published by one agency, and the core users are outside of that agency; for example, threatened species distributions are published by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for consideration by planners in advance of National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.) evaluation.

This report is provided to inform FLH leaders and Federal Land Management Agency partners by articulating user needs and requirements for integrated planning tool(s). Programmers creating a secure web-based data-sharing platform (with data-viewing, -analysis and -download functions) can use the information presented here to organize data and user interfaces. This integrated perspective can help FLH and Federal Land Management Agency partners develop transportation networks that better serve the needs of people in local communities and across States and the Nation.

Released July 31, 2024 11:40 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3025

Jane S. Hearon, Christopher J. Schenk, Thomas M. Finn, Benjamin G. Johnson, Sarah E. Gelman, Jenny H. Lagesse, Cheryl A. Woodall, Tracey J. Mercier, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Kira K. Timm, Ronald M. Drake II, Andrea D. Cicero, Geoffrey S. Ellis, Michael H. Gardner, Phuong A. Le, Scott S. Young

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean conventional and continuous resources of 294 million barrels of oil and 11 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Lewis Shale in the Southwestern Wyoming Province, Wyoming and Colorado.

Released July 31, 2024 09:46 EST

2024, Hydrological Sciences Journal (69) 1387-1398

Caelan Simeone, Gregory J. McCabe, Jory Seth Hecht, John C. Hammond, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Carolyn G. Olson, Michael Wieczorek, David M. Wolock

Low-flow period properties, including timing, magnitude, and duration, influence many key processes for water resource managers and ecosystems. We computed annual low-flow period duration and timing metrics from 1951 to 2020 for 1032 conterminous United States (CONUS) streamgages and analyzed spatial patterns, trends through time, and relationships to climate. Results show northwestern and eastern CONUS streamgages had longer and more inter-annually consistent low-flow period durations, while central CONUS periods were shorter and more variable. Low-flow periods most often occurred in summer months but start and end dates occurred later in north-central and mountainous western CONUS, which have the greatest number of low flows during cold seasons. Low-flow periods are becoming longer in southeastern and northwestern CONUS but shorter in much of the rest of CONUS. Temperature was correlated with low-flow period duration in southeastern and northwestern CONUS, and precipitation was correlated with duration everywhere, but most strongly in eastern CONUS.

Released July 31, 2024 06:47 EST

2024, Geophysical Research Letters (51)

Yuankun Xu, R. Burgmann, David L. George, E..J. Fielding, G.X. Solis-Gordillo, D.B. Yanez-Borja

Released July 31, 2024 06:41 EST

2024, Seismological Research Letters

Andres F. Peña Castro, Brandon Schmandt, Jenny Sha Nakai, Richard C. Aster, Julien Chaput

We apply a machine learning (ML) earthquake detection technique on over 21 yr of seismic data from on‐continent temporary and long‐term networks to obtain the most complete catalog of seismicity in Antarctica to date. The new catalog contains 60,006 seismic events within the Antarctic continent for 1 January 2000–1 January 2021, with estimated moment magnitudes (⁠Mw ⁠) between −1.0 and 4.5. Most detected seismicity occurs near Ross Island, large ice shelves, ice streams, ice‐covered volcanoes, or in distinct and isolated areas within the continental interior. The event locations and waveform characteristics indicate volcanic, tectonic, and cryospheric sources. The catalog shows that Antarctica is more seismically active than prior catalogs would indicate, examples include new tectonic events in East Antarctica, seismic events near and around the vicinity of David Glacier, and many thousands of events in the Mount Erebus region. This catalog provides a resource for more specific studies using other detection and analysis methods such as template matching or transfer learning to further discriminate source types and investigate diverse seismogenic processes across the continent.

Released July 30, 2024 13:00 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1028

Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nicolas Luco, Emily K. Schnebele, Nedal T. Nassar, Donya Otarod

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Because many of the largest facilities are concentrated geographically near the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific, there is a potential for cascading effects on the entire supply chain. The analysis indicates that the expected annual disruption of global production is 0.3–1.1 percent for copper mines, 1.8–4.0 percent for smelters, and 1.5–3.3 percent for refineries. Expected annual disruption of global rhenium production capacity is 0.32–1.32 percent. The research highlights that the potential lost revenue from earthquake disruptions is from $315 million to $1.29 billion for copper mining, $1.92 billion to $4.33 billion for copper smelting, $2.06 billion to $4.52 billion for copper refining, and $337,000 to $1.40 million for rhenium production capacity.

Released July 30, 2024 12:53 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5033

Joseph J. Kennedy, Henry M. Johnson, Stephen B. Gingerich

The annual maximum extent of surface water in Klamath Marsh has naturally fluctuated in response to periods of wet and dry conditions in the surrounding basin. Field observations during the 2010s indicate that the annual maximum extent of surface water has been declining and the marsh is not responding to hydrologic inputs as it had historically. This report describes the results of a hydrologic evaluation of Klamath Marsh to characterize and understand multi-year declines in the surface-water extent and increased intermittency of streamflow exiting the marsh.

Landsat imagery collected during 1985–2021 was processed to create a time series of annual maximum surface-water extent to assess changes in surface-water inundation within the marsh. A 50-percent decrease in the mean surface area of annual total open-water extent (TOWE) during the latter half of the study period (2003–21) compared to the first half (1985–2003) was observed in this 37-year time-series dataset. The change in open-water extent was offset by a corresponding increase in dry land in the marsh.

Time series of streamflow, groundwater level, total annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and anthropogenic water use and water management were compiled and evaluated to improve understanding of the factors affecting TOWE. Statistically significant downward trends in the regional groundwater table and streamflow into and out of the marsh were identified as well as statistically significant upward trends in annual mean temperature. Statistically significant correlations among TOWE, streamflow, and groundwater level also were identified. The decreasing trends could not be attributed to changes in total annual precipitation or changing anthropogenic groundwater use within the study area.

Declines in the open-water extent of Klamath Marsh since 2000 principally are due to a decoupling of the groundwater and surface-water system beneath the marsh because of regional declines in groundwater level. Regional increases in air temperature and the reestablishment of more than 55,000 acres of forested land within the study area have likely contributed to increasing evapotranspiration, leaving less water available for groundwater recharge and stream base flow and resulting in basin-wide declines in streamflow and groundwater levels.

Released July 30, 2024 11:13 EST

2024, Environmental Science & Technology

Austin K. Baldwin, James Willacker, Branden L. Johnson, Sarah E. Janssen, Collin Eagles-Smith

The increasing frequency and severity of wildfires are among the most visible impacts of climate change. However, the effects of wildfires on mercury (Hg) transformations and bioaccumulation in stream ecosystems are poorly understood. We sampled soils, water, sediment, in-stream leaf litter, periphyton, and aquatic invertebrates in 36 burned (one-year post fire) and 21 reference headwater streams across the northwestern U.S. to evaluate the effects of wildfire occurrence and severity on total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) transport and bioaccumulation. Suspended particulate THg and MeHg concentrations were 89 and 178% greater in burned watersheds compared to unburned watersheds and increased with burn severity, likely associated with increased soil erosion. Concentrations of filter-passing THg were similar in burned and unburned watersheds, but filter-passing MeHg was 51% greater in burned watersheds, and suspended particles in burned watersheds were enriched in MeHg but not THg, suggesting higher MeHg production in burned watersheds. Among invertebrates, MeHg in grazers, filter-feeders, and collectors was 33, 48, and 251% greater in burned watersheds, respectively, but did not differ in shredders or predators. Thus, increasing wildfire frequency and severity may yield increased MeHg production, mobilization, and bioaccumulation in headwaters and increased transport of particulate THg and MeHg to downstream environments.

Released July 30, 2024 08:35 EST

2024, Geophysical Research Letters (51)

Joseph Rabaey, Meredith Holgerson, David Richardson, Mikkel R. Andersen, Sheel Bansal, Lauren E Bortolotti, James Cotner, Daniel Hornbach, Kenneth T. Martinsen, Eric Moody, Olivia F. Schloegel

Ponds, wetlands, and shallow lakes (collectively “shallow waterbodies”) are among the most biogeochemically active freshwater ecosystems. Measurements of gross primary production (GPP), respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (NEP) are rare in shallow waterbodies compared to larger and deeper lakes, which can bias our understanding of lentic ecosystem processes. In this study, we calculated GPP, R, and NEP in 26 small, shallow waterbodies across temperate North America and Europe. We observed high rates of GPP (mean 8.4 g O₂ m⁻³ d⁻¹) and R (mean −9.1 g O₂ m⁻³ d⁻¹), while NEP varied from net heterotrophic to autotrophic. Metabolism rates were affected by depth and aquatic vegetation cover, and the shallowest waterbodies had the highest GPP, R, and the most variable NEP. The shallow waterbodies from this study had considerably higher metabolism rates compared to deeper lakes, stressing the importance of these systems as highly productive biogeochemical hotspots.

Released July 30, 2024 08:21 EST

2024, Conservation Science and Practice (6)

Catherine S. Jarnevich, Sarah K. Carter, Zoe M. Davidson, Nicole D. MacPhee, Patrick J. Alexander, Brandon Hayes, Pairsa N. Belmaric, Benjamin R Harms

Public lands across the United States are managed for multiple uses, resources, and values ranging from energy development to rare plant conservation. Intensified energy development and other land use changes across the Southwestern United States have increased the need for proactive management to mitigate impacts to rare plants. Habitat suitability models can inform decision-making and lead to more effective conservation of rare plants and their habitats, but high-quality models that are suited for use at local scales are lacking for many species. Our team of scientists and managers developed ensembles of habitat suitability models for five rare plant species in New Mexico using a coproduced, iterative framework complemented by comprehensive ground truthing and tailoring of products for use in public land decisions. Our process resulted in substantial differences from initial models through changes to environmental predictors, species occurrence and background data, and development of new species-specific predictors. Involving species experts and end users in model development can strengthen the process and resulting model and build understanding and trust in final products. Both factors can promote use of models to inform public land permitting and planning decisions that may affect rare plants, including by guiding development away from highly suitable habitats.

Released July 29, 2024 07:06 EST

2024, Conservation Science and Practice (6)

Kimberly E Szcodronski, Alisa A. Wade, Sarah Elizabeth Burton, Blake R. Hossack

Released July 29, 2024 07:02 EST

2024, Environmental Science and Technology Letters

Madison Jo Foster, Meryl Biesiot Storb, Johanna Blake, Travis S. Schmidt, Rochelle A. Nustad, Ashley Morgan Bussell

Released July 26, 2024 09:48 EST

2024, River Research and Applications

Joseph R. Benjamin, Jason B. Dunham, Nicholas Scheidt, Carla Rothenbuecher, Cory Sipher

Assisted migration is a means of introducing a species into a previously unoccupied area. Although this idea is relatively new for many species, there are many extant examples involving fish that can be instructive. We studied a case of assisted migration where upstream access of migrating adult coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch over a naturally impassible barrier was established through construction of fish ladders. Although these passage structures have successfully allowed coho salmon to colonize upstream locations, managers had concerns regarding how efficiently these structures passed fish, as well as questions regarding access to specific upstream habitats, and passage barriers further upstream. To address these concerns, we developed a stage-based population model to explore: (1) influences of passage over structures, (2) rearing habitats upstream of the structures, and (3) consequences of additional barriers to passage in the system. Model simulations suggest high fish passage at the ladders was associated with the highest smolt and adult abundance of coho salmon. The importance of passage was strongly influenced by juveniles rearing in a lake, where increased lake rearing at each passage scenario increased abundance of smolts and adults. Opening habitat further upstream was estimated to increase adult and smolt abundance up to 12%. Results of model simulations also helped to identify uncertainties that could be evaluated further (e.g., juvenile rearing in the lake). In general, our findings point to the importance of considering a full range of processes that can drive expected outcomes for assisted migration.

Released July 26, 2024 09:23 EST

2024, Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Jeffrey S. Hall, Sean Nashold, Erik K. Hofmeister, Ariel Elizabeth Leon, Elizabeth Falendysz, Hon S. Ip, Carly M. Malave, Tonie E. Rocke, Mariano Carossino, Udeni B.R. Balasuriya, Susan Knowles

It has been proposed that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus that spread through human populations as a pandemic originated in Asian bats. There is concern that infected humans could transmit the virus to native North American bats; therefore, the susceptibility of several North American bat species to the pandemic virus has been experimentally assessed. Big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) were shown to be resistant to infection by SARS-CoV-2, whereas Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) became infected and orally excreted moderate amounts of virus for up to 18 d postinoculation. Little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) frequently contact humans, and their populations are threatened over much of their range due to white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease that is continuing to spread across North America. We experimentally challenged little brown bats with SARS-CoV-2 to determine their susceptibility and host potential and whether the virus presents an additional risk to this species. We found that this species was resistant to infection by SARS-CoV-2. These findings provide reassurance to wildlife rehabilitators, biologists, conservation scientists, and the public at large who are concerned with possible transmission of this virus to threatened bat populations.

Released July 26, 2024 06:55 EST

2024, ACS Omega (9) 33983-33997

Paul C. Hackley, Clint Scott, Justin E. Birdwell, Jennifer Nedzweckas, Brett J. Valentine, Tongwei Zhang, Timothy O Nesheim

Released July 26, 2024 06:39 EST

2024, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (643)

M.A. Malkowski, Z.T. Sickmann, Theresa A. Fregoso, Lester McKee, D. Stockli, Bruce E. Jaffe

Released July 26, 2024 00:00 EST

2006, Scientific Investigations Report 2006-5055

Gary R. Wall, Elizabeth A. Nystrom, Simon Litten

Acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) can provide data needed for computation of suspended-sediment discharge in complex river systems, such as tidal rivers, in which conventional methods of collecting time-series data on suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and water discharge are not feasible. Although ADCPs are not designed to measure SSC, ADCP data can be used as a surrogate under certain environmental conditions. However, the software for such computation is limited, and considerable post-processing is needed to correct and normalize ADCP data for this use. This report documents the sampling design and computational procedure used to calibrate ADCP measures of echo intensity to SSC and water velocity to discharge in the computation of suspended-sediment discharge at the study site on the Hudson River near Poughkeepsie, New York. The methods and procedures described may prove useful to others doing similar work in different locations; however, they are specific to this study site and may have limited applicability elsewhere.

Released July 25, 2024 10:51 EST

2024, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences (52) 61-84

Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan T. Page, Max Schneider, Nicholas van der Elst

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Released July 25, 2024 09:06 EST

2024, Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology (179)

Elizabeth R. G. Grant, Dawnika Blatter, Thomas W. Sisson, Kari M Cooper

Rhyolitic tuffs range widely in their crystal contents from nearly aphyric to crystal-rich, and their crystal cargoes inform concepts of upper crustal magma reservoirs. The Earthquake Flat pyroclastics (Okataina Volcanic Center, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand) are 10 km³ of rhyolitic tuffs with abundant (~ 40 vol.%) plagioclase and quartz, minor biotite, hornblende, and orthopyroxene, and accessory Fe-Ti oxides, apatite, and zircon, set in high-silica rhyolitic glass. Major minerals form large, euhedral phenocrysts and abundant glomerocrysts with few disequilibrium textures excepting some faintly resorbed quartz. Plagioclase phenocrysts have thick rims of nearly constant composition near An₃₀, and hornblende is weakly zoned or unzoned. The abundant and texturally complex mineral assemblage contrasts with the nearby (~ 25 km), nearly synchronous, but more voluminous and crystal-moderate rhyolite tuffs from Rotoiti caldera. New H₂O-saturated phase-equilibria results on the erupted Earthquake Flat melt (glass) determine its co-saturation with the partial phenocryst assemblage of plagioclase, quartz, biotite, and Fe-Ti oxides at: 140 MPa, 755 ºC. These closely approximate the conditions of the pre-eruptive magma body assuming it was saturated with nearly pure H₂O and at an fO₂ of ~ Ni–NiO. Absence of hornblende and orthopyroxene from the synthesized assemblages may result from those minerals being in a peritectic reaction relation with melt to produce biotite, so they would not grow from the liquid used as starting material. Experimental results on Rotoiti rhyolite (Nicholls et al. 1992) show that the two bodies resided at similar pressures, temperatures, and fO₂s. Lower crystal abundance of the Rotoiti tuffs may result from slight compositional differences. We interpret that the Earthquake Flat pyroclastics were sourced from the crystal-rich periphery of a mushy reservoir system with the Rotoiti occupying a more melt-rich central location. Uncertain is whether this was a single intrusion zoned continuously in crystallinity, or discrete adjacent intrusions, but our results illustrate and quantify complexities of magma storage across relatively short distances.

Released July 25, 2024 08:41 EST

2024, Geosphere

Roland E. von Huene, John J. Miller

Western Alaska’s convergent margins are composed of tectonostratigraphic terranes. On land, terrane assembly is recognized along boundaries or sutures between neighboring geologic elements with distinctly different origins. In marine areas where rock outcrops are covered by sediment, recognizing terrane sutures is problematic. A fault in seismic dip line 5 of the ALEUT project has been interpreted as a terrane suture. It is imaged intermittently down to the 30+-km-deep plate interface. Processing of ALEUT strike line 7 revealed the suture at ~18 km depths extending 300 km along the margin. Upper structures in line 5 are like the structures of adjacent seismic transects where imaging is only 8−10 km deep. They were previously not recognized as the upper reaches of terrane sutures and show structural details obscured at greater depths. The composite data are the basis for a simple tectonic model of terrane docking.

Released July 25, 2024 06:45 EST

2024, Marine Ecology Progress Series (740) 193-211

Devin L. Johnson, Joseph Michael Eisaguirre, Rebecca L. Taylor, Joel L. Garlich-Miller

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbance are increasingly affecting wildlife at a global scale. Predicting how varying types and degrees of disturbance may interact to influence population dynamics is a key management challenge. Population consequences of disturbance (PCoD) models provide a framework to link effects of anthropogenic disturbance on an individual’s behavior and physiology to population-level changes. In the present study, we develop a Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) PCoD model to encompass the population-level effects of both anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. As the Arctic becomes increasingly ice-free, walruses spend more time at coastal (vs. ice-based) haulouts, from which they must expend more energy to reach foraging areas and where they have an elevated risk of mortality. Concurrently, sea ice loss is increasing the anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic (e.g. fisheries, shipping, energy exploration), which creates additional disturbance. We applied the PCoD model to 4 scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic) which incorporate different global sea ice model projections along with varying degrees of anthropogenic disturbance. All scenarios indicated a decline in Pacific walrus vital rates by the end of the 21st century, but our results demonstrated that the intensity of that decline could be mitigated by global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, along with local management and conservation efforts to protect important coastal haulouts and foraging grounds. In summary, we introduce a flexible PCoD modeling framework in a novel context which will prove useful to researchers studying species threatened by rapid environmental change.

Released July 24, 2024 19:50 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3031

Cynthia M. Rachol

High-quality elevation data are proving to be a resource of value in addressing many important economic issues in Michigan. The expanding statewide availability of current and accurate high-resolution elevation data can help support agriculture and precision farming, natural resource conservation, flood risk management, and geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation. Water supply and quality assessment, coastal zone management, infrastructure and construction management, solar potential and other renewable energy programs, and identification of features of interest or concern such as archaeological and historical sites are other notable areas that are supported with accurate, high-resolution elevation data. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

Released July 24, 2024 13:37 EST

2024, Open-File Report 2024-1044

William S. Beatty, Kelly Amoth, Katelyn Bergstrom, Luke J. Fara, Brian R. Gray, Steven C. Houdek, Jayden Jech, Kevin P. Kenow, Robert Rabasco, Spencer Rettler, Michael Wellik, Steven Yang

The Deepwater Horizon mobile drilling platform exploded on April 20, 2010. The resulting massive oil spill injured natural resources in the Gulf of Mexico, including wintering common loons (Gavia immer). We report on activities completed under the “Restoration of Common Loons in Minnesota” project in calendar year 2023, which was funded by the Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group. In 2022, a subset of monitored breeding territories was identified as focal territories, which are sampling units for the study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, monitored 98 common loon focal territories and an additional 43 nonfocal territories in 2023 across 56 study lakes in Minnesota. We collaborated with lake associations and private citizens to deploy 42 artificial nesting platforms within 44 focal treatment territories. The remaining 54 focal territories were controls. Territorial surveys were completed from May 8 to August 11, 2023, to evaluate occupancy, nest success, and chick survival. At least one nest attempt was observed in 31 of 44 treatment territories and a second nest attempt was observed after a failed initial attempt in 6 treatment territories. However, only one nest was on an artificial nesting platform in a treatment territory; the remaining nest locations were natural. At least one nest attempt was observed in 37 of 54 control territories, and a second nest attempt was observed after a failed initial attempt in 5 control territories. Chicks or other evidence of hatching were observed in 17 of 54 control territories and 17 of 44 treatment territories, with 1 of those successful treatment nests occurring on an artificial nesting platform. This report includes no formal analysis, but we plan to analyze data after collection of all field data in subsequent years.

Released July 24, 2024 11:45 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3010

Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Cheryl A. Woodall, Phuong A. Le, Andrea D. Cicero, Ronald M. Drake II, Geoffrey S. Ellis, Thomas M. Finn, Michael H. Gardner, Sarah E. Gelman, Jane S. Hearon, Benjamin G. Johnson, Jenny H. Lagesse, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Kristen R. Marra, Kira K. Timm, Scott S. Young

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 5.1 billion barrels of oil and 79.1 trillion cubic feet of gas in offshore East Africa and the Seychelles.

Released July 24, 2024 08:23 EST

2024, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (12)

Claudia Flores, Uri S. ten Brink

Large amounts of video images have been collected for decades by scientific and governmental organizations in deep (>1000 m) water using manned and unmanned submersibles and towed cameras. The collected images were analyzed individually or were mosaiced in small areas with great effort. Here, we provide a workflow for utilizing modern photogrammetry to construct virtual geological outcrops hundreds or thousands of meters in length from these archived video images. The photogrammetry further allows quantitative measurements of these outcrops, which were previously unavailable. Although photogrammetry had been carried out in recent years in the deep sea, it had been limited to small areas with pre-defined overlapping dive paths. Here, we propose a workflow for constructing virtual outcrops from archived exploration dives, which addresses the complicating factors posed by single non-linear and variable-speed vehicle paths. These factors include poor navigation, variable lighting, differential color attenuation due to variable distance from the seafloor, and variable camera orientation with respect to the vehicle. In particular, the lack of accurate navigation necessitates reliance on image quality and the establishment of pseudo-ground-control points to build the photogrammetry model. Our workflow offers an inexpensive method for analyzing deep-sea geological environments from existing video images, particularly when coupled with rock samples.

Released July 24, 2024 06:36 EST

2024, Ecotoxicology

Andrea Bonisoli-Alquati, Allyson K. Jackson, Collin Eagles-Smith, Sydney Moyo, Anna A. Pérez-Umphre, Michael J. Polito, Allison M. Snider, S. Tyler Williams, Stefan Woltmann, Philip C. Stouffer, Sabrina S. Taylor

Released July 24, 2024 06:12 EST

2024, Report

Michele Thornton, Catalina Taglialatela, Luis Lopez, Matt Fisher, Alexis Hunzinger, Mahsa Jami, Brianna M. Lind, Cassie Nickles, Andy Teucher, Aronne Merrelli, Erin Robinson, Julie Lowndes

From April-May 2024, the NASA Mentors who span eleven Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) co-led the third Champions Cohort with the NASA Openscapes project team, this year focusing on, teaching lessons they adapted for geospatial and cloud analysis. The Cohort included nine international research teams from academia and government that were curious about working with NASA Earthdata in the Cloud. Many teams were interested in using data from multiple DAACs. User cloud adaption takes time, given the new conceptual mindsets and technical skillsets it requires. During the ten weeks we worked together, NASA Mentors refined and extended previous lessons to focus on thinking through and planning the transition to using the Cloud for science research and applications, and initial experiments using the Cloud through our 2i2c JupyterHub. Below are these updates and YouTube clips!

There were also recurring themes/questions that we have heard before, some of which remain as open questions and continue to remain a challenge. Importantly, Amazon Web Services (AWS) Cloud onboarding, when to use what resources, how to set them up, and how to discuss needs with organizational leadership and IT staff, which often falls outside the scope of NASA DAACs, yet it’s a key element of helping users adopt the Cloud and use NASA data in the Cloud. It is encouraging to hear some of the champions starting to have conversations with their institutions, IT departments, and making their needs known, which is likely a big part of the solution, too. We are thankful to NASA Openscapes Champions for informing and nudging these conversations! All of this work is underpinned by Openscapes and NASA’s commitment to open science practices and a kinder collaborative culture. This cohort is funded by NASA and is part of our NASA Openscapes Framework project.

Released July 23, 2024 13:00 EST

2024, Fact Sheet 2024-3026

Electa Hare-Red Corn, Robert F. Breault, Jason R. Sorenson

Intertribal networks for collecting and analyzing hydrologic and environmental data are growing. The U.S. Geological Survey can be a key partner with Tribal Nations in the further development of network capacity. A first step is the internship opportunity available through the partnership between the USGS and The Wildlife Society: The Native American Research Assistantship Program.

Released July 23, 2024 13:00 EST

2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5060

Sarah M. Lindley, Emily J. Wilkins, Carin Farley, Karla Rogers, Rudy Schuster

As of 2024, there are 32 National Scenic and Historic Trails (NSHTs) in the system administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The BLM administers, manages, and protects 19 of these trails as part of its system of national conservation lands. Various laws, regulations, and policies require that the BLM conduct and maintain an inventory to protect trail-related resources, qualities, values, associated settings, and primary use or uses. There are set procedures for conducting inventory, assessment, and monitoring (IAM) of NSHTs, as outlined in volumes 1 and 2 of BLM Technical Reference 6280-1. One of the first steps in the IAM process is deciding the area along a trail to inventory. However, volumes 1 and 2 of BLM Technical Reference 6280-1 do not specify how the land area to be inventoried should be delineated. The BLM calls these focus areas for IAM efforts “inventory analysis units” (IAUs), which are defined as the geospatial boundary for the location of an inventory along a trail. This report reviews the approach used to delineate the IAUs for an inventory effort and identifies best practices for creating initial IAUs, termed “draft IAUs.” Draft IAUs would provide standardization across multiple management jurisdictions by applying the same parameters for their delineation. These draft IAUs would provide trail managers with an area surrounding NSHTs that would trigger the need for an inventory if a project were proposed within it and are meant to be refined during localized inventory efforts. The best practices herein are for creating draft IAUs using standard parameters for performing a viewshed analysis to identify a proxy of land to include in an initial inventory effort.

Released July 23, 2024 08:51 EST

2024, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (643)

Margaret Elizabeth Glasgow, Hankui K. Zhang, Brandon Schmandt, Wen-Yi Zhou, Jinchi Zhang

Seismic boundaries caused by phase transitions between olivine polymorphs in Earth's mantle provide thermal and compositional markers that inform mantle dynamics. Seismic studies of the mantle transition zone often use either global averaging with sparse arrays or regional sampling from a single dense array. The intermediate approach of this study utilizes many densely spaced seismic arrays distributed around the globe. We systematically compute teleseismic P-to-S receiver functions for each seismic array and invert for the 1-D seismic velocity structure of the mantle transition zone beneath each array to facilitate a comparison between densely sampled regions. We stack 3,600 receiver functions on average at 67 arrays in total. The stack is used in a probabilistic inversion to estimate the mantle transition zone interface depths and velocities beneath each array. We focus on the 410-km discontinuity (410) because it is a prominent seismic interface that is clearly linked to a single mineral phase transition between olivine and wadsleyite. The depths and velocity contrasts of the 410 are mapped to temperatures and compositions using mineral physics constraints. The depth of the 410 ranges from ∼405–440 km, which is consistent with a ∼360 K temperature range in a dry mantle and a ∼260 K temperature range in a wet mantle (2 wt. % water). The Vs contrast across the 410 ranges from ∼2.5–8 %, which is consistent with ∼20–70 vol. % olivine composition in a dry mantle and ∼25–80 vol. % in a wet mantle. The bulk composition of the upper mantle near the 410-km discontinuity is typically considered to be well-mixed because there is no thermodynamic impediment to convection at the olivine to wadsleyite phase transition. However, the wide range of inferred olivine content from our study suggests that there are large lateral variations in the bulk composition of the upper mantle near the 410-km discontinuity.

Released July 23, 2024 07:28 EST

2024, Nature Geoscience (17) 795-802

Joseph Novak, Rocio Caballero-Gill, Rebecca Rose, Timothy D. Herbert, Harry J. Dowsett

Released July 23, 2024 06:57 EST

2024, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Jessie K. Pearl, Harvey Kelsey, Stephen J. Angster, Dylan Caldwell, Ian Pryor, Brian L. Sherrod

Determining the timing and cause for ancient hillslope failures proves difficult in the western United States, yet critical as it ties directly into groundmotion estimates for hazardous events. This knowledge gap is important to confront as hillslope failures are candidates to be triggered by earthquakes along active plate boundaries. We identify two prehistoric, i.e., preinstrumental history, debris avalanches (3 10^6 and 6 10^6 m^3) in the Coast Ranges of northern California. These debris avalanches are well suited for studying the timing (to the exact year) and trigger as the densely forested landscape enables effective use of dendrochronology and high-resolution radiocarbon to pinpoint time of failure, and the legacy of landslide studies in the region provides context for evaluating a seismic trigger as the most likely triggering mechanism. Neither debris avalanche was triggered by the largest precipitation event of the instrumental record in 1964 CE, and the two debris avalanche sites are physiographically suited to accommodate topographic amplification of seismic shaking. Through a suite of geologic and dendrochronologic evidence, we establish the likely time of failure of the two debris avalanches as 1906 CE and 933 CE. The failure of the younger landslide coincides with the 1906 CE San Francisco earthquake on the Pacific/North American plate boundary, while the older landslide dates to 933 CE falling within the broad age range (850-966 CE) of a likely megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone as recorded in coastal marshes in Humboldt Bay, California. The precise age on the 933 CE debris avalanche could trim the uncertainty on a Cascadia subduction zone event from 116 years to one year. Utilizing debris avalanche records from sites suitable to record seismic shaking improves understanding of plate-boundary earthquake timing and extent of shaking.

Released July 23, 2024 06:49 EST

2024, Sustainable Cities and Society (113)

Peter Christian Ibsen, Benjamin R Crawford, Lucila Marie Corro, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Brandon E McNellis, G. Darrel Jenerette, James E. Diffendorfer

Released July 23, 2024 06:44 EST

2024, Northeastern Naturalist. (31) T55-T76

Andrew B. Gordon Jr., Donovan Drummey, Anthony Tur, Annie E. Curtis, Jacob C. McCumber, Michael T. Jones, Jeremy C. Andersen, Graziella Vittoria Direnzo

Released July 22, 2024 08:28 EST

2024, Ecography

Donald L. DeAngelis, Linhao Xu

Feedbacks are the basic linkages of living systems. In organisms, they regulate the processes of growth and homeostasis, as well as their interactions with their world. Feedback, which Judson (1980) called ‘one of the chief themes of scientific understanding,' is equally important in ecological systems. The ecological literature is rich in papers dealing with the role of feedback in various phenomena. However, we know of no comprehensive synthesis of feedbacks in ecology. Pichon et al. (2024) accomplish this, and for the first time show that ecological feedbacks can be categorized in terms of a small number of fundamental attributes. The paper brings the array of different types of feedbacks into a manageable order, providing not only the relevant theoretical framework but also guidance on methods for applying understanding to practical issues.

Released July 22, 2024 07:13 EST

2024, Diversity and Distributions

Demetra A. Williams, Keana S. Shadwell, Ian Pearse, Janet S. Prevéy, Peder Engelstad, Grace Henderson, Catherine S. Jarnevich

Aim

Due to the socioeconomic and environmental damages caused by invasive species, predicting the distribution of invasive plants is fundamental for effectively targeting management efforts. A habitat suitability model (HSM) is a powerful tool to predict potential habitat of invasive species to help guide the early detection of invasive plants. Despite numerous studies of the predictors used in HSMs, there is little consensus about the most appropriate predictors to use in creating ecologically realistic predictions from HSMs.

Location

The contiguous United States.

Methods

We explore 220 invasive terrestrial plant species' existing HSMs constructed with consistent modelling algorithms, background generation methods, predictor resolution, and geographic extent, and calculate the relative importance of predictors for each species. We sort predictors into eight groups (topography, temperature, disturbance, atmospheric water, landscape water, substrate, biotic interaction, and radiation) and compare the importance of predictor groups by plant lifeforms and phylogenetic relatedness.

Results

Human modification and minimum winter temperature were generally the two highest performing individual predictors across the species studied. The highest-performing predictor groups were disturbance, temperature, and atmospheric water. Across lifeforms, there were minimal differences in the influences of predictor groups, although woody plant models exhibited the largest differences in predictor importance when compared with non-woody plant models. Additionally, we found no significant relationship between the importance of predictor groups and phylogenetic relatedness.

Main Conclusions

This study has implications for informing predictor selection in invasive plant HSMs, leading to more reliable and accurate models of invasive terrestrial plants. Our results emphasize the need to critically select predictors included in HSMs, with special consideration to temperature and disturbance predictors, to accurately predict habitat of invasive plant for detection and response of invasive plant species. With more accurate predictions, managers will be better prepared to address invasive species and reduce their threats to landscapes.

Released July 21, 2024 06:37 EST

2024, Ecological Applications

Andreas Paul Wion, Jens T. Stevens, Kay Beeley, Rebecca Oertel, Ellis Margolis, Craig D. Allen

Wildfires and climate change are having transformative effects on vegetation composition and structure, and post-fire management may have long-lasting impacts on ecosystem reorganization. Post-fire aerial seeding treatments are commonly used to reduce runoff and soil erosion, but little is known about how seeding treatments affect native vegetation recovery over long periods of time, particularly in type-converted forests which have been dramatically transformed by the effects of repeated, high-severity fire. In this study, we analyze and report on a rare long-term (23-year) dataset that documents vegetation dynamics following a 1996 post-fire aerial seed treatment and subsequent 2011 high-severity reburn in a dry conifer forest of northern New Mexico in the southwestern United States. Repeated surveys between 1997 – 2019 of 49 permanent transects were used to test for differences in vegetation cover, richness, and diversity between seeded and unseeded areas, and to characterize the development of seeded and unseeded vegetation communities through time and across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and soil-available water capacity. Post-fire seeding led to a clear and sustained divergence in herbaceous community composition. Seeded plots had much higher cover of non-native graminoids, primarily Bromus inermis, a likely contaminant in the seed mix. High-severity reburning in all plots in 2011 reduced native graminoid cover by half at seeded plots compared to both pre-fire levels and to plots that were unseeded following the initial 1996 fire. In addition, increased fire severity was associated with increased non-native graminoid cover and reduced native graminoid cover, native species richness, and species diversity. This study documents a fire-driven ecosystem transformation from a former conifer forest into a shrub-grass system, reinforced by aerial seeding of grasses and high-severity reburning. This unique long-term dataset illustrates that post-fire seeding carries significant risk of unwanted non-native species invasions that persist through subsequent fires – indicating that alternative post-fire management actions merit consideration to better support native ecosystem resilience in the face of emergent climate change and increasing disturbance. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of post-fire vegetation dynamics, as short-term assessments will miss key elements of the full complexity of ecosystem responses to fire and post-fire management actions.