Without the AU Transition Mission, the Somali army should prepare to face several hundred additional attacks each year.
A rapid exit of AU troops from Somalia could hand a battlefield and propaganda advantage to al-Shabaab.
It’s likely that the terrorist group will be defeated one day. But there are no signs that the political elite is capable of changing.
Al-Shabaab’s evolution over nearly two decades has been centred around three major goals.
Peacekeeping missions grab the headlines when they’re associated with tragedy and death – but that isn’t their full story.
A transition is underway in Somalia. There are massive risks if it is not handled with great care.