MLB Best Bets: Over/Under Predictions for Wednesday

With a loaded MLB slate on Wednesday, June 26, our staff of betting analysts has locked in their MLB Best Bets.

Read on for two over/under predictions for Dodgers vs White Sox and more.

MLB Best Bets: Over/Under Predictions for Wednesday

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	8:10 p.m.	Under 8.5 (-103)
	2:10 p.m.	Under 8.5 (-110)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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Wednesday, June 26

2:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Under 8.5 (-110)

By Sean Zerillo

Yesterday, I noted that Ryan Feltner has the largest differential (+1.95) between actual ERA (6.02) and expected ERA or xERA (4.07) this season among qualified starters, ahead of Pablo Lopez (+1.84) and Aaron Civale (+1.21).

Spencer Arrighetti (6.36 ERA, 4.54 xERA, 11% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+) has been similarly unlucky, with a .360 BABIP – and a differential of 1.8 runs between his actual and expected ERA.

Feltner owns a .344 BABIP (.322 career) and a 57% Strand Rate (61.7% career) – which are significantly lower than the MLB averages (.287 and 71.7%, respectively) since he pitches at Coors Field.

I'd expect Arrighetti (68.2% Strand Rate) to regress toward those levels, but I view him as a below-average arm (85 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 97 Pitching+).

Under the hood, Feltner appears to be a league-average starter (3.87 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%, 99 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 102 Pitching+) with three above-average offerings (119 changeup, 110 slider, 105 curveball) – which he's thrown more than 52% of the time combined this season.

I set this total at 7.76 runs – but also lean toward the underdog Rockies; I'll wait for the best price on the latter.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)

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Wednesday, June 26

8:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Under 8.5 (-103)

By D.J. James

Erick Fedde has been one of the lone bright spots and great signings for the Chicago White Sox this year. He owns a 3.05 ERA against a 3.39 xERA, and his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit Rate are also well above average. His Strikeout Rate is about league-average, but he does not issue many walks and keeps the ball on the ground.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Gavin Stone will oppose him on Wednesday. Stone has a 3.04 ERA against a 3.74 xERA, and his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit Rate have been excellent.

He will not strike out as many as Fedde, but he can keep the ball on the ground. At times he has issues with control, but the White Sox swing often, so this should not be much of a concern.

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The Sox have a 77 wRC+ with a 6% Walk Rate and 25.2% Strikeout Rate in June off of righties. Stone could miss more bats simply because of this favorable matchup.

The Dodgers have hit righties well (123 wRC+), but Mookie Betts no longer being in the lineup leaves a bit of a hole.

In relief, the White Sox have actually been great this month with a 3.61 xFIP and Strikeout Rate above 26%. They do walk over 10% of batters, but overall, they have done well in later innings — which is a major improvement after struggling earlier in the year.

The Dodgers bullpen has been pretty strong, too, with a 3.67 xFIP, 27.4% Strikeout Rate and 7.6% Walk Rate.

Since the only indication of an explosion of runs here would come from one dugout, the under should be in play. Fedde and Stone have been great. Take the under in Chicago from 8.5 down to 7.5 on Wednesday night.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-103)

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